Matching Items (40)
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- All Subjects: Machine Learning
- Creators: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
- Creators: Meuth, Ryan
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
- Resource Type: Text
- Status: Published
Description
This thesis dives into the world of artificial intelligence by exploring the functionality of a single layer artificial neural network through a simple housing price classification example while simultaneously considering its impact from a data management perspective on both the software and hardware level. To begin this study, the universally accepted model of an artificial neuron is broken down into its key components and then analyzed for functionality by relating back to its biological counterpart. The role of a neuron is then described in the context of a neural network, with equal emphasis placed on how it individually undergoes training and then for an entire network. Using the technique of supervised learning, the neural network is trained with three main factors for housing price classification, including its total number of rooms, bathrooms, and square footage. Once trained with most of the generated data set, it is tested for accuracy by introducing the remainder of the data-set and observing how closely its computed output for each set of inputs compares to the target value. From a programming perspective, the artificial neuron is implemented in C so that it would be more closely tied to the operating system and therefore make the collected profiler data more precise during the program's execution. The program is designed to break down each stage of the neuron's training process into distinct functions. In addition to utilizing more functional code, the struct data type is used as the underlying data structure for this project to not only represent the neuron but for implementing the neuron's training and test data. Once fully trained, the neuron's test results are then graphed to visually depict how well the neuron learned from its sample training set. Finally, the profiler data is analyzed to describe how the program operated from a data management perspective on the software and hardware level.
ContributorsRichards, Nicholas Giovanni (Author) / Miller, Phillip (Thesis director) / Meuth, Ryan (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Bots tamper with social media networks by artificially inflating the popularity of certain topics. In this paper, we define what a bot is, we detail different motivations for bots, we describe previous work in bot detection and observation, and then we perform bot detection of our own. For our bot detection, we are interested in bots on Twitter that tweet Arabic extremist-like phrases. A testing dataset is collected using the honeypot method, and five different heuristics are measured for their effectiveness in detecting bots. The model underperformed, but we have laid the ground-work for a vastly untapped focus on bot detection: extremist ideal diffusion through bots.
ContributorsKarlsrud, Mark C. (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis director) / Morstatter, Fred (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computing and Informatics Program (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The OMFIT (One Modeling Framework for Integrated Tasks) modeling environment and the BRAINFUSE module have been deployed on the PPPL (Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory) computing cluster with modifications that have rendered the application of artificial neural networks (NNs) to the TRANSP databases for the JET (Joint European Torus), TFTR (Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor), and NSTX (National Spherical Torus Experiment) devices possible through their use. This development has facilitated the investigation of NNs for predicting heat transport profiles in JET, TFTR, and NSTX, and has promoted additional investigations to discover how else NNs may be of use to scientists at PPPL. In applying NNs to the aforementioned devices for predicting heat transport, the primary goal of this endeavor is to reproduce the success shown in Meneghini et al. in using NNs for heat transport prediction in DIII-D. Being able to reproduce the results from is important because this in turn would provide scientists at PPPL with a quick and efficient toolset for reliably predicting heat transport profiles much faster than any existing computational methods allow; the progress towards this goal is outlined in this report, and potential additional applications of the NN framework are presented.
ContributorsLuna, Christopher Joseph (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis director) / Treacy, Michael (Committee member) / Orso, Meneghini (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Physics (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Twitter, the microblogging platform, has grown in prominence to the point that the topics that trend on the network are often the subject of the news and other traditional media. By predicting trends on Twitter, it could be possible to predict the next major topic of interest to the public. With this motivation, this paper develops a model for trends leveraging previous work with k-nearest-neighbors and dynamic time warping. The development of this model provides insight into the length and features of trends, and successfully generalizes to identify 74.3% of trends in the time period of interest. The model developed in this work provides understanding into why par- ticular words trend on Twitter.
ContributorsMarshall, Grant A (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis director) / Morstatter, Fred (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
A model has been developed to modify Euler-Bernoulli beam theory for wooden beams, using visible properties of wood knot-defects. Treating knots in a beam as a system of two ellipses that change the local bending stiffness has been shown to improve the fit of a theoretical beam displacement function to edge-line deflection data extracted from digital imagery of experimentally loaded beams. In addition, an Ellipse Logistic Model (ELM) has been proposed, using L1-regularized logistic regression, to predict the impact of a knot on the displacement of a beam. By classifying a knot as severely positive or negative, vs. mildly positive or negative, ELM can classify knots that lead to large changes to beam deflection, while not over-emphasizing knots that may not be a problem. Using ELM with a regression-fit Young's Modulus on three-point bending of Douglass Fir, it is possible estimate the effects a knot will have on the shape of the resulting displacement curve.
ContributorsSexton, Thurston Bryant (Author) / Takahashi, Timothy (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This thesis dives into the world of machine learning by attempting to create an application that will accurately predict whether or not a sneaker will resell at a profit. To begin this study, I first researched different machine learning algorithms to determine which would be best for this project. After ultimately deciding on using an artificial neural network, I then moved on to collecting data, using StockX and Twitter. StockX is a platform where individuals can post and resell shoes, while also providing statistics and analytics about each pair of shoes. I used StockX to retrieve data about the actual shoe, which involved retrieving data for the network feature variables: gender, brand, and retail price. Additionally, I also retrieved the data for the average deadstock price for each shoe, which describes what the mean price of new, unworn shoes are selling for on StockX. This data was used with the retail price data to determine whether or not a shoe has been, on average, selling for a profit. I used Twitter’s API to retrieve links to different shoes on StockX along with retrieving the number of favorites and retweets each of those links had. These metrics were used to account for ‘hype’ of the shoe, with shoes traditionally being more profitable the larger the hype surrounding them. After preprocessing the data, I trained the model using a randomized 80% of the data. On average, the model had about a 65-70% accuracy range when tested with the remaining 20% of the data. Once the model was optimized, I saved it and uploaded it to a web application that took in user input for the five feature variables, tested the datapoint using the model, and outputted the confidence in whether or not the shoe would generate a profit.
From a technical perspective, I used Python for the whole project, while also using HTML/CSS for the front-end of the application. As for key packages, I used Keras, an open source neural network library to build the model; data preprocessing was done using sklearn’s various subpackages. All charts and graphs were done using data visualization libraries matplotlib and seaborn. These charts provided insight as to what the final dataset looked like. They showed how the brand distribution is relatively close to what it should be, while the gender distribution was heavily skewed. Future work on this project would involve expanding the dataset, automating the entirety of the data retrieval process, and finally deploying the project on the cloud for users everywhere to use the application.
From a technical perspective, I used Python for the whole project, while also using HTML/CSS for the front-end of the application. As for key packages, I used Keras, an open source neural network library to build the model; data preprocessing was done using sklearn’s various subpackages. All charts and graphs were done using data visualization libraries matplotlib and seaborn. These charts provided insight as to what the final dataset looked like. They showed how the brand distribution is relatively close to what it should be, while the gender distribution was heavily skewed. Future work on this project would involve expanding the dataset, automating the entirety of the data retrieval process, and finally deploying the project on the cloud for users everywhere to use the application.
ContributorsShah, Shail (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Nakamura, Mutsumi (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.
ContributorsBrowning, Jacob Christian (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Machine learning for analytics has exponentially increased in the past few years due to its ability to identify hidden insights in data. It also has a plethora of applications in healthcare ranging from improving image recognition in CT scans to extracting semantic meaning from thousands of medical form PDFs. Currently in the BioElectrical Systems and Technology Lab, there is a biosensor in development that retrieves and analyzes data manually. In a proof of concept, this project uses the neural network architecture to automatically parse and classify a cardiac disease data set as well as explore health related factors impacting cardiac disease in patients of all ages.
ContributorsMurella, Akhila Sainagaki (Author) / Blain-Christen, Jennifer (Thesis director) / Meuth, Ryan (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of the Arts, Media and Engineering (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
In this paper, I will show that news headlines of global events can predict changes in stock price by using Machine Learning and eight years of data from r/WorldNews, a popular forum on Reddit.com. My data is confined to the top 25 daily posts on the forum, and due to the implicit filtering mechanism in the online community, these 25 posts are representative of the most popular news headlines and influential global events of the day. Hence, these posts shine a light on how large-scale social and political events affect the stock market. Using a Logistic Regression and a Naive Bayes classifier, I am able to predict with approximately 85% accuracy a binary change in stock price using term-feature vectors gathered from the news headlines. The accuracy, precision and recall results closely rival the best models in this field of research. In addition to the results, I will also describe the mathematical underpinnings of the two models; preceded by a general investigation of the intersection between the multiple academic disciplines related to this project. These range from social to computer science and from statistics to philosophy. The goal of this additional discussion is to further illustrate the interdisciplinary nature of the research and hopefully inspire a non-monolithic mindset when further investigations are pursued.
ContributorsPriniski, John Hunter (Author) / Haiyan, Wang (Thesis director) / Hazel, Kwon (Committee member) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12