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- All Subjects: Electrical Engineering
- All Subjects: vulnerabilities assessment
Description
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities were assessed for future heat waves due to climate change. Critical processes and component relationships were identified and characterized with consideration for the terminal event of service outages, including cascading failures in transmission-level components that can result in blackouts. The most critical dependency identified was the increase in peak electricity demand with higher air temperatures. Historical and future air temperatures were characterized within and across Los Angeles County, California (LAC) and Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. LAC was identified as more vulnerable to heat waves than Phoenix due to a wider distribution of historical temperatures. Two approaches were developed to estimate peak demand based on air temperatures, a top-down statistical model and bottom-up spatial building energy model. Both approaches yielded similar results, in that peak demand should increase sub-linearly at temperatures above 40°C (104 °F) due to saturation in the coincidence of air conditioning (AC) duty cycles. Spatial projections for peak demand were developed for LAC to 2060 considering potential changes in population, building type, building efficiency, AC penetration, appliance efficiency, and air temperatures due climate change. These projections were spatially allocated to delivery system components (generation, transmission lines, and substations) to consider their vulnerability in terms of thermal de-rated capacity and weather adjusted load factor (load divided by capacity). Peak hour electricity demand was projected to increase in residential and commercial sectors by 0.2–6.5 GW (2–51%) by 2060. All grid components, except those near Santa Monica Beach, were projected to experience 2–20% capacity loss due to air temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Based on scenario projections, and substation load factors for Southern California Edison (SCE), SCE will require 848—6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional substation capacity or peak shaving in its LAC service territories by 2060 to meet additional demand associated with population growth projections.
ContributorsBurillo, Daniel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
There is an interest in citizen scientist networks such as CoCoRaHS to develop an air temperature sensor with a solar shield that is both extremely low cost and user friendly for use in widespread data collection in order to analyze urban microclimates. This paper outlines work done to develop a low cost micrometeorology instrument to fulfill the design requirements set by CoCoRaHS. While the first two revisions of this technology had significant changes in development, a third revision was created as a proof of concept that low cost temperature sensors could be used in an array to accurately measure air temperature without solar radiation interference. Another technology, described as revision four, called the iButton was also evaluated and displayed promising ability to log temperatures, but costs too much for the ultra-low cost design goal. Additionally, work was done to design a radiation shield that will be prototyped and tested alongside commercial radiation shields. This controlled experiment will also include further evaluation of the iButton and the next revision of a custom microclimate temperature sensing unit to determine the best option for widespread field testing.
ContributorsMarshall, Travis Keith (Author) / Jordan, Shawn (Thesis director) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Engineering (Contributor)
Created2014-05