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Description
Woodland/Alloy Casting, Inc. is an aluminum foundry known for providing high-quality molds to their customers in industries such as aviation, electrical, defense, and nuclear power. However, as the company has grown larger during the past three years, they have begun to struggle with the on-time delivery of their orders. Woodland prides itself on their high-grade process that includes core processing, the molding process, cleaning process, and heat-treat process. To create each mold, it has to flow through each part of the system flawlessly. Throughout this process, significant bottlenecks occur that limit the number of molds leaving the system. To combat this issue, this project uses a simulation of the foundry to test how best to schedule their work to optimize the use of their resources. Simulation can be an effective tool when testing for improvements in systems where making changes to the physical system is too expensive. ARENA is a simulation tool that allows for manipulation of resources and process while also allowing both random and selected schedules to be run through the foundry’s production process. By using an ARENA simulation to test different scheduling techniques, the risk of missing production runs is minimized during the experimental period so that many different options can be tested to see how they will affect the production line. In this project, several feasible scheduling techniques are compared in simulation to determine which schedules allow for the highest number of molds to be completed.
ContributorsAdams, Danielle Renee (Author) / Pavlic, Theodore (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Based on findings of previous studies, there was speculation that two well-known experimental design software packages, JMP and Design Expert, produced varying power outputs given the same design and user inputs. For context and scope, another popular experimental design software package, Minitab® Statistical Software version 17, was added to the comparison. The study compared multiple test cases run on the three software packages with a focus on 2k and 3K factorial design and adjusting the standard deviation effect size, number of categorical factors, levels, number of factors, and replicates. All six cases were run on all three programs and were attempted to be run at one, two, and three replicates each. There was an issue at the one replicate stage, however—Minitab does not allow for only one replicate full factorial designs and Design Expert will not provide power outputs for only one replicate unless there are three or more factors. From the analysis of these results, it was concluded that the differences between JMP 13 and Design Expert 10 were well within the margin of error and likely caused by rounding. The differences between JMP 13, Design Expert 10, and Minitab 17 on the other hand indicated a fundamental difference in the way Minitab addressed power calculation compared to the latest versions of JMP and Design Expert. This was found to be likely a cause of Minitab’s dummy variable coding as its default instead of the orthogonal coding default of the other two. Although dummy variable and orthogonal coding for factorial designs do not show a difference in results, the methods affect the overall power calculations. All three programs can be adjusted to use either method of coding, but the exact instructions for how are difficult to find and thus a follow-up guide on changing the coding for factorial variables would improve this issue.
ContributorsArmstrong, Julia Robin (Author) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Reliability growth is not a new topic in either engineering or statistics and has been a major focus for the past few decades. The increasing level of high-tech complex systems and interconnected components and systems implies that reliability problems will continue to exist and may require more complex solutions. The most heavily used experimental designs in assessing and predicting a systems reliability are the "classical designs", such as full factorial designs, fractional factorial designs, and Latin square designs. They are so heavily used because they are optimal in their own right and have served superbly well in providing efficient insight into the underlying structure of industrial processes. However, cases do arise when the classical designs do not cover a particular practical situation. Repairable systems are such a case in that they usually have limitations on the maximum number of runs or too many varying levels for factors. This research explores the D-optimal design criteria as it applies to the Poisson Regression model on repairable systems, with a number of independent variables and under varying assumptions, to include the total time tested at a specific design point with fixed parameters, the use of a Bayesian approach with unknown parameters, and how the design region affects the optimal design. In applying experimental design to these complex repairable systems, one may discover interactions between stressors and provide better failure data. Our novel approach of accounting for time and the design space in the early stages of testing of repairable systems should, theoretically, in the final engineering design improve the system's reliability, maintainability and availability.
ContributorsTAYLOR, DUSTIN (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Rigdon, Steve (Committee member) / Freeman, Laura (Committee member) / Iquebal, Ashif (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Nonregular designs for 9-14 factors in 16 runs are a vital alternative for to theregular minimum aberration resolution III fractional factorials. Because there is no complete aliasing between the main factor and two factor interactions, these designs are useful as potential confusion in results is avoided. However, there is another associated complication to this kind of design due to the complete confounding for some of the two- factors. In this research, the focus is on using three different of methods and compare the results. The methods are: Stepwise, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and the Dantzig selector method. In a previous research, Metcalfe discuss the nonregular designs for 6-8 factors design and studies several analysis methods. She also develops a new method, The Aliased Informed Model Selection (AIMS), for those designs. This research builds upon that.
For this research, simulation is used to develop random models to analyze designs from the class of nonregular fractions with 9 – 14 factors in 16 runs using JMP scripting. Then, analyze the cases with the mentioned methods and find the success rate for each one. The model generations were random with only main factors, or main factors and two- factors interaction as active effects. Effect sizes of 2 and 3 standard deviations are studied. The nonregular design used in this research are 9 and 11-factors design.
Results shows that there is a clear consistency for the main factors only as active effects using all the methods. However, adding the interactions to the active effects degrade the success rate substantially for the Dantzig method. Moreover, as the active effects exceed approximately half of the degrees of freedom for the design the performance for all
i
the methods decreases. Finally, some recommendations are discussed for further research investigation such as AIMS, other variation methods and Augmentation.
ContributorsAlqarni, Hanan (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Metcalfe, Carly (Committee member) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Matching or stratification is commonly used in observational studies to remove bias due to confounding variables. Analyzing matched data sets requires specific methods which handle dependency among observations within a stratum. Also, modern studies often include hundreds or thousands of variables. Traditional methods for matched data sets are challenged in high-dimensional settings, mixed type variables (numerical and categorical), nonlinear andinteraction effects. Furthermore, machine learning research for such structured data is quite limited. This dissertation addresses this important gap and proposes machine learning models for identifying informative variables from high-dimensional matched data sets. The first part of this dissertation proposes a machine learning model to identify informative variables from high-dimensional matched case-control data sets. The outcome of interest in this study design is binary (case or control), and each stratum is assumed to have one unit from each outcome level. The proposed method which is referred to as Matched Forest (MF) is effective for large number of variables and identifying interaction effects. The second part of this dissertation proposes three enhancements of MF algorithm. First, a regularization framework is proposed to improve variable selection performance in excessively high-dimensional settings. Second, a classification method is proposed to classify unlabeled pairs of data. Third, two metrics are proposed to estimate the effects of important variables identified by MF. The third part proposes a machine learning model based on Neural Networks to identify important variables from a more generalized matched case-control data set where each stratum has one unit from case outcome level and more than one unit from control outcome level. This method which is referred to as Matched Neural Network (MNN) performs better than current algorithms to identify variables with interaction effects. Lastly, a generalized machine learning model is proposed to identify informative variables from high-dimensional matched data sets where the outcome has more than two levels. This method outperforms existing algorithms in the literature in identifying variables with complex nonlinear and interaction effects.
ContributorsShomal Zadeh, Nooshin (Author) / Runger, George (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Shinde, Shilpa (Committee member) / Escobedo, Adolfo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
With the explosion of autonomous systems under development, complex simulation models are being tested and relied on far more than in the recent past. This uptick in autonomous systems being modeled then tested magnifies both the advantages and disadvantages of simulation experimentation. An inherent problem in autonomous systems development is when small changes in factor settings result in large changes in a response’s performance. These occurrences look like cliffs in a metamodel’s response surface and are referred to as performance mode boundary regions. These regions represent areas of interest in the autonomous system’s decision-making process. Therefore, performance mode boundary regions are areas of interest for autonomous systems developers.Traditional augmentation methods aid experimenters seeking different objectives, often by improving a certain design property of the factor space (such as variance) or a design’s modeling capabilities. While useful, these augmentation techniques do not target areas of interest that need attention in autonomous systems testing focused on the response. Boundary Explorer Adaptive Sampling Technique, or BEAST, is a set of design augmentation algorithms. The adaptive sampling algorithm targets performance mode boundaries with additional samples. The gap filling augmentation algorithm targets sparsely sampled areas in the factor space. BEAST allows for sampling to adapt to information obtained from pervious iterations of experimentation and target these regions of interest. Exploiting the advantages of simulation model experimentation, BEAST can be used to provide additional iterations of experimentation, providing clarity and high-fidelity in areas of interest along potentially steep gradient regions.
The objective of this thesis is to research and present BEAST, then compare BEAST’s algorithms to other design augmentation techniques. Comparisons are made towards traditional methods that are already implemented in SAS Institute’s JMP software, or emerging adaptive sampling techniques, such as Range Adversarial Planning Tool (RAPT). The goal of this objective is to gain a deeper understanding of how BEAST works and where it stands in the design augmentation space for practical applications. With a gained understanding of how BEAST operates and how well BEAST performs, future research recommendations will be presented to improve BEAST’s capabilities.
ContributorsSimpson, Ryan James (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Karl, Andrew (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Committee member) / Wisnowski, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2024