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- All Subjects: engineering
- Creators: Arizona State University
Description
Many longitudinal studies, especially in clinical trials, suffer from missing data issues. Most estimation procedures assume that the missing values are ignorable or missing at random (MAR). However, this assumption leads to unrealistic simplification and is implausible for many cases. For example, an investigator is examining the effect of treatment on depression. Subjects are scheduled with doctors on a regular basis and asked questions about recent emotional situations. Patients who are experiencing severe depression are more likely to miss an appointment and leave the data missing for that particular visit. Data that are not missing at random may produce bias in results if the missing mechanism is not taken into account. In other words, the missing mechanism is related to the unobserved responses. Data are said to be non-ignorable missing if the probabilities of missingness depend on quantities that might not be included in the model. Classical pattern-mixture models for non-ignorable missing values are widely used for longitudinal data analysis because they do not require explicit specification of the missing mechanism, with the data stratified according to a variety of missing patterns and a model specified for each stratum. However, this usually results in under-identifiability, because of the need to estimate many stratum-specific parameters even though the eventual interest is usually on the marginal parameters. Pattern mixture models have the drawback that a large sample is usually required. In this thesis, two studies are presented. The first study is motivated by an open problem from pattern mixture models. Simulation studies from this part show that information in the missing data indicators can be well summarized by a simple continuous latent structure, indicating that a large number of missing data patterns may be accounted by a simple latent factor. Simulation findings that are obtained in the first study lead to a novel model, a continuous latent factor model (CLFM). The second study develops CLFM which is utilized for modeling the joint distribution of missing values and longitudinal outcomes. The proposed CLFM model is feasible even for small sample size applications. The detailed estimation theory, including estimating techniques from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives is presented. Model performance and evaluation are studied through designed simulations and three applications. Simulation and application settings change from correctly-specified missing data mechanism to mis-specified mechanism and include different sample sizes from longitudinal studies. Among three applications, an AIDS study includes non-ignorable missing values; the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test data have no indication on missing data mechanism and it will be applied to a sensitivity analysis; the Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers with Developmental Speech and Language Impairment study, however, has full complete data and will be used to conduct a robust analysis. The CLFM model is shown to provide more precise estimators, specifically on intercept and slope related parameters, compared with Roy's latent class model and the classic linear mixed model. This advantage will be more obvious when a small sample size is the case, where Roy's model experiences challenges on estimation convergence. The proposed CLFM model is also robust when missing data are ignorable as demonstrated through a study on Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers.
ContributorsZhang, Jun (Author) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Barber, Jarrett (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / St Louis, Robert D. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Nowadays product reliability becomes the top concern of the manufacturers and customers always prefer the products with good performances under long period. In order to estimate the lifetime of the product, accelerated life testing (ALT) is introduced because most of the products can last years even decades. Much research has been done in the ALT area and optimal design for ALT is a major topic. This dissertation consists of three main studies. First, a methodology of finding optimal design for ALT with right censoring and interval censoring have been developed and it employs the proportional hazard (PH) model and generalized linear model (GLM) to simplify the computational process. A sensitivity study is also given to show the effects brought by parameters to the designs. Second, an extended version of I-optimal design for ALT is discussed and then a dual-objective design criterion is defined and showed with several examples. Also in order to evaluate different candidate designs, several graphical tools are developed. Finally, when there are more than one models available, different model checking designs are discussed.
ContributorsYang, Tao (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Rigdon, Steve (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The ability to design high performance buildings has acquired great importance in recent years due to numerous federal, societal and environmental initiatives. However, this endeavor is much more demanding in terms of designer expertise and time. It requires a whole new level of synergy between automated performance prediction with the human capabilities to perceive, evaluate and ultimately select a suitable solution. While performance prediction can be highly automated through the use of computers, performance evaluation cannot, unless it is with respect to a single criterion. The need to address multi-criteria requirements makes it more valuable for a designer to know the "latitude" or "degrees of freedom" he has in changing certain design variables while achieving preset criteria such as energy performance, life cycle cost, environmental impacts etc. This requirement can be met by a decision support framework based on near-optimal "satisficing" as opposed to purely optimal decision making techniques. Currently, such a comprehensive design framework is lacking, which is the basis for undertaking this research. The primary objective of this research is to facilitate a complementary relationship between designers and computers for Multi-Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) during high performance building design. It is based on the application of Monte Carlo approaches to create a database of solutions using deterministic whole building energy simulations, along with data mining methods to rank variable importance and reduce the multi-dimensionality of the problem. A novel interactive visualization approach is then proposed which uses regression based models to create dynamic interplays of how varying these important variables affect the multiple criteria, while providing a visual range or band of variation of the different design parameters. The MCDM process has been incorporated into an alternative methodology for high performance building design referred to as Visual Analytics based Decision Support Methodology [VADSM]. VADSM is envisioned to be most useful during the conceptual and early design performance modeling stages by providing a set of potential solutions that can be analyzed further for final design selection. The proposed methodology can be used for new building design synthesis as well as evaluation of retrofits and operational deficiencies in existing buildings.
ContributorsDutta, Ranojoy (Author) / Reddy, T Agami (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Addison, Marlin S. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Microelectronic industry is continuously moving in a trend requiring smaller and smaller devices and reduced form factors with time, resulting in new challenges. Reduction in device and interconnect solder bump sizes has led to increased current density in these small solders. Higher level of electromigration occurring due to increased current density is of great concern affecting the reliability of the entire microelectronics systems. This paper reviews electromigration in Pb- free solders, focusing specifically on Sn0.7wt.% Cu solder joints. Effect of texture, grain orientation, and grain-boundary misorientation angle on electromigration and intermetallic compound (IMC) formation is studied through EBSD analysis performed on actual C4 bumps.
ContributorsLara, Leticia (Author) / Tasooji, Amaneh (Thesis advisor) / Lee, Kyuoh (Committee member) / Krause, Stephen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Magnetic Resonance Imaging using spiral trajectories has many advantages in speed, efficiency in data-acquistion and robustness to motion and flow related artifacts. The increase in sampling speed, however, requires high performance of the gradient system. Hardware inaccuracies from system delays and eddy currents can cause spatial and temporal distortions in the encoding gradient waveforms. This causes sampling discrepancies between the actual and the ideal k-space trajectory. Reconstruction assuming an ideal trajectory can result in shading and blurring artifacts in spiral images. Current methods to estimate such hardware errors require many modifications to the pulse sequence, phantom measurements or specialized hardware. This work presents a new method to estimate time-varying system delays for spiral-based trajectories. It requires a minor modification of a conventional stack-of-spirals sequence and analyzes data collected on three orthogonal cylinders. The method is fast, robust to off-resonance effects, requires no phantom measurements or specialized hardware and estimate variable system delays for the three gradient channels over the data-sampling period. The initial results are presented for acquired phantom and in-vivo data, which show a substantial reduction in the artifacts and improvement in the image quality.
ContributorsBhavsar, Payal (Author) / Pipe, James G (Thesis advisor) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Kodibagkar, Vikram (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Vehicle type choice is a significant determinant of fuel consumption and energy sustainability; larger, heavier vehicles consume more fuel, and expel twice as many pollutants, than their smaller, lighter counterparts. Over the course of the past few decades, vehicle type choice has seen a vast shift, due to many households making more trips in larger vehicles with lower fuel economy. During the 1990s, SUVs were the fastest growing segment of the automotive industry, comprising 7% of the total light vehicle market in 1990, and 25% in 2005. More recently, due to rising oil prices, greater awareness to environmental sensitivity, the desire to reduce dependence on foreign oil, and the availability of new vehicle technologies, many households are considering the use of newer vehicles with better fuel economy, such as hybrids and electric vehicles, over the use of the SUV or low fuel economy vehicles they may already own. The goal of this research is to examine how vehicle miles traveled, fuel consumption and emissions may be reduced through shifts in vehicle type choice behavior. Using the 2009 National Household Travel Survey data it is possible to develop a model to estimate household travel demand and total fuel consumption. If given a vehicle choice shift scenario, using the model it would be possible to calculate the potential fuel consumption savings that would result from such a shift. In this way, it is possible to estimate fuel consumption reductions that would take place under a wide variety of scenarios.
ContributorsChristian, Keith (Author) / Pendyala, Ram M. (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail (Committee member) / Kaloush, Kamil (Committee member) / Ahn, Soyoung (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The construction industry in India suffers from major time and cost overruns. Data from government and industry reports suggest that projects suffer from 20 to 25 percent time and cost overruns. Waste of resources has been identified as a major source of inefficiency. Despite a substantial increase in the past few years, demand for professionals and contractors still exceeds supply by a large margin. The traditional methods adopted in the Indian construction industry may not suffice the needs of this dynamic environment, as they have produced large inefficiencies. Innovative ways of procurement and project management can satisfy the needs aspired to as well as bring added value. The problems faced by the Indian construction industry are very similar to those faced by other developing countries. The objective of this paper is to discuss and analyze the economic concerns, inefficiencies and investigate a model that both explains the Indian construction industry structure and provides a framework to improve efficiencies. The Best Value (BV) model is examined as an approach to be adopted in lieu of the traditional approach. This could result in efficient construction projects by minimizing cost overruns and delays, which until now have been a rarity.
ContributorsNihas, Syed (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis advisor) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Committee member) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The objective of this thesis was to compare various approaches for classification of the `good' and `bad' parts via non-destructive resonance testing methods by collecting and analyzing experimental data in the frequency and time domains. A Laser Scanning Vibrometer was employed to measure vibrations samples in order to determine the spectral characteristics such as natural frequencies and amplitudes. Statistical pattern recognition tools such as Hilbert Huang, Fisher's Discriminant, and Neural Network were used to identify and classify the unknown samples whether they are defective or not. In this work, a Finite Element Analysis software packages (ANSYS 13.0 and NASTRAN NX8.0) was used to obtain estimates of resonance frequencies in `good' and `bad' samples. Furthermore, a system identification approach was used to generate Auto-Regressive-Moving Average with exogenous component, Box-Jenkins, and Output Error models from experimental data that can be used for classification
ContributorsJameel, Osama (Author) / Redkar, Sangram (Thesis advisor) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Over the past couple of decades, quality has been an area of increased focus. Multiple models and approaches have been proposed to measure the quality in the construction industry. This paper focuses on determining the quality of one of the types of roofing systems used in the construction industry, i.e. Sprayed Polyurethane Foam Roofs (SPF roofs). Thirty seven urethane coated SPF roofs that were installed in 2005 / 2006 were visually inspected to measure the percentage of blisters and repairs three times over a period of 4 year, 6 year and 7 year marks. A repairing criteria was established after a 6 year mark based on the data that were reported to contractors as vulnerable roofs. Furthermore, the relation between four possible contributing time of installation factors i.e. contractor, demographics, season, and difficulty (number of penetrations and size of the roof in square feet) that could affect the quality of the roof was determined. Demographics and difficulty did not affect the quality of the roofs whereas the contractor and the season when the roof was installed did affect the quality of the roofs.
ContributorsGajjar, Dhaval (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis advisor) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This work presents two complementary studies that propose heuristic methods to capture characteristics of data using the ensemble learning method of random forest. The first study is motivated by the problem in education of determining teacher effectiveness in student achievement. Value-added models (VAMs), constructed as linear mixed models, use students’ test scores as outcome variables and teachers’ contributions as random effects to ascribe changes in student performance to the teachers who have taught them. The VAMs teacher score is the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP). This approach is limited by the adequacy of the assumed model specification with respect to the unknown underlying model. In that regard, this study proposes alternative ways to rank teacher effects that are not dependent on a given model by introducing two variable importance measures (VIMs), the node-proportion and the covariate-proportion. These VIMs are novel because they take into account the final configuration of the terminal nodes in the constitutive trees in a random forest. In a simulation study, under a variety of conditions, true rankings of teacher effects are compared with estimated rankings obtained using three sources: the newly proposed VIMs, existing VIMs, and EBLUPs from the assumed linear model specification. The newly proposed VIMs outperform all others in various scenarios where the model was misspecified. The second study develops two novel interaction measures. These measures could be used within but are not restricted to the VAM framework. The distribution-based measure is constructed to identify interactions in a general setting where a model specification is not assumed in advance. In turn, the mean-based measure is built to estimate interactions when the model specification is assumed to be linear. Both measures are unique in their construction; they take into account not only the outcome values, but also the internal structure of the trees in a random forest. In a separate simulation study, under a variety of conditions, the proposed measures are found to identify and estimate second-order interactions.
ContributorsValdivia, Arturo (Author) / Eubank, Randall (Thesis advisor) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Broatch, Jennifer (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013