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Description
Rabies is an infectious viral disease. It is usually fatal if a victim reaches the rabid stage, which starts after the appearance of disease symptoms. The disease virus attacks the central nervous system, and then it migrates from peripheral nerves to the spinal cord and brain. At the time when the rabies virus reaches the brain, the incubation period is over and the symptoms of clinical disease appear on the victim. From the brain, the virus travels via nerves to the salivary glands and saliva.
A mathematical model is developed for the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population to model the spread of the rabies epizootic through middle Europe that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. The model considers both territorial and wandering rabid foxes and includes a latent period for the infection. Since the model assumes these two kinds of rabid foxes, it is a system of both partial differential and integral equations (with integration
over space and, occasionally, also over time). To study the spreading speeds of the rabies epidemic, the model is reduced to a scalar Volterra-Hammerstein integral equation, and space-time Laplace transform of the integral equation is used to derive implicit formulas for the spreading speed. The spreading speeds are discussed and implicit formulas are given for latent periods of fixed length, exponentially distributed length, Gamma distributed length, and log-normally distributed length. A number of analytic and numerical results are shown pertaining to the spreading speeds.
Further, a numerical algorithm is described for the simulation
of the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population on a bounded domain with Dirichlet boundary conditions. I propose the following methods for the numerical approximation of solutions. The partial differential and integral equations are discretized in the space variable by central differences of second order and by
the composite trapezoidal rule. Next, the ordinary or delay differential equations that are obtained this way are discretized in time by explicit
continuous Runge-Kutta methods of fourth order for ordinary and delay differential systems. My particular interest
is in how the partition of rabid foxes into
territorial and diffusing rabid foxes influences
the spreading speed, a question that can be answered by purely analytic means only for small basic reproduction numbers. I will restrict the numerical analysis
to latent periods of fixed length and to exponentially
distributed latent periods.
The results of the numerical calculations
are compared for latent periods
of fixed and exponentially distributed length
and for various proportions of territorial
and wandering rabid foxes.
The speeds of spread observed in the
simulations are compared
to spreading speeds obtained by numerically solving the analytic formulas
and to observed speeds of epizootic frontlines
in the European rabies outbreak 1940 to 1980.
A mathematical model is developed for the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population to model the spread of the rabies epizootic through middle Europe that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. The model considers both territorial and wandering rabid foxes and includes a latent period for the infection. Since the model assumes these two kinds of rabid foxes, it is a system of both partial differential and integral equations (with integration
over space and, occasionally, also over time). To study the spreading speeds of the rabies epidemic, the model is reduced to a scalar Volterra-Hammerstein integral equation, and space-time Laplace transform of the integral equation is used to derive implicit formulas for the spreading speed. The spreading speeds are discussed and implicit formulas are given for latent periods of fixed length, exponentially distributed length, Gamma distributed length, and log-normally distributed length. A number of analytic and numerical results are shown pertaining to the spreading speeds.
Further, a numerical algorithm is described for the simulation
of the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population on a bounded domain with Dirichlet boundary conditions. I propose the following methods for the numerical approximation of solutions. The partial differential and integral equations are discretized in the space variable by central differences of second order and by
the composite trapezoidal rule. Next, the ordinary or delay differential equations that are obtained this way are discretized in time by explicit
continuous Runge-Kutta methods of fourth order for ordinary and delay differential systems. My particular interest
is in how the partition of rabid foxes into
territorial and diffusing rabid foxes influences
the spreading speed, a question that can be answered by purely analytic means only for small basic reproduction numbers. I will restrict the numerical analysis
to latent periods of fixed length and to exponentially
distributed latent periods.
The results of the numerical calculations
are compared for latent periods
of fixed and exponentially distributed length
and for various proportions of territorial
and wandering rabid foxes.
The speeds of spread observed in the
simulations are compared
to spreading speeds obtained by numerically solving the analytic formulas
and to observed speeds of epizootic frontlines
in the European rabies outbreak 1940 to 1980.
ContributorsAlanazi, Khalaf Matar (Author) / Thieme, Horst R. (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Chapter 1 introduces some key elements of important topics such as; quantum mechanics,
representation theory of the Lorentz and Poincare groups, and a review of some basic rela- ´
tivistic wave equations that will play an important role in the work to follow. In Chapter 2,
a complex covariant form of the classical Maxwell’s equations in a moving medium or at
rest is introduced. In addition, a compact, Lorentz invariant, form of the energy-momentum
tensor is derived. In chapter 3, the concept of photon helicity is critically analyzed and its
connection with the Pauli-Lubanski vector from the viewpoint of the complex electromag- ´
netic field, E+ iH. To this end, a complex covariant form of Maxwell’s equations is used.
Chapter 4 analyzes basic relativistic wave equations for the classical fields, such as Dirac’s
equation, Weyl’s two-component equation for massless neutrinos and the Proca, Maxwell
and Fierz-Pauli equations, from the viewpoint of the Pauli-Lubanski vector and the Casimir ´
operators of the Poincare group. A connection between the spin of a particle/field and ´
consistency of the corresponding overdetermined system is emphasized in the massless
case. Chapter 5 focuses on the so-called generalized quantum harmonic oscillator, which
is a Schrodinger equation with a time-varying quadratic Hamiltonian operator. The time ¨
evolution of exact wave functions of the generalized harmonic oscillators is determined
in terms of the solutions of certain Ermakov and Riccati-type systems. In addition, it is
shown that the classical Arnold transform is naturally connected with Ehrenfest’s theorem
for generalized harmonic oscillators. In Chapter 6, as an example of the usefulness of the
methods introduced in Chapter 5 a model for the quantization of an electromagnetic field
in a variable media is analyzed. The concept of quantization of an electromagnetic field
in factorizable media is discussed via the Caldirola-Kanai Hamiltonian. A single mode
of radiation for this model is used to find time-dependent photon amplitudes in relation
to Fock states. A multi-parameter family of the squeezed states, photon statistics, and the
uncertainty relation, are explicitly given in terms of the Ermakov-type system.
representation theory of the Lorentz and Poincare groups, and a review of some basic rela- ´
tivistic wave equations that will play an important role in the work to follow. In Chapter 2,
a complex covariant form of the classical Maxwell’s equations in a moving medium or at
rest is introduced. In addition, a compact, Lorentz invariant, form of the energy-momentum
tensor is derived. In chapter 3, the concept of photon helicity is critically analyzed and its
connection with the Pauli-Lubanski vector from the viewpoint of the complex electromag- ´
netic field, E+ iH. To this end, a complex covariant form of Maxwell’s equations is used.
Chapter 4 analyzes basic relativistic wave equations for the classical fields, such as Dirac’s
equation, Weyl’s two-component equation for massless neutrinos and the Proca, Maxwell
and Fierz-Pauli equations, from the viewpoint of the Pauli-Lubanski vector and the Casimir ´
operators of the Poincare group. A connection between the spin of a particle/field and ´
consistency of the corresponding overdetermined system is emphasized in the massless
case. Chapter 5 focuses on the so-called generalized quantum harmonic oscillator, which
is a Schrodinger equation with a time-varying quadratic Hamiltonian operator. The time ¨
evolution of exact wave functions of the generalized harmonic oscillators is determined
in terms of the solutions of certain Ermakov and Riccati-type systems. In addition, it is
shown that the classical Arnold transform is naturally connected with Ehrenfest’s theorem
for generalized harmonic oscillators. In Chapter 6, as an example of the usefulness of the
methods introduced in Chapter 5 a model for the quantization of an electromagnetic field
in a variable media is analyzed. The concept of quantization of an electromagnetic field
in factorizable media is discussed via the Caldirola-Kanai Hamiltonian. A single mode
of radiation for this model is used to find time-dependent photon amplitudes in relation
to Fock states. A multi-parameter family of the squeezed states, photon statistics, and the
uncertainty relation, are explicitly given in terms of the Ermakov-type system.
ContributorsLanfear, Nathan A (Author) / Suslov, Sergei (Thesis advisor) / Kotschwar, Brett (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Matyushov, Dmitry (Committee member) / Kuiper, Hendrik (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
A leading crisis in the United States is the opioid use disorder (OUD) epidemic. Opioid overdose deaths have been increasing, with over 100,000 deaths due to overdose from April 2020 to April 2021. This dissertation presents two mathematical models to address illicit OUD (IOUD), treatment, and recovery within an epidemiological framework. In the first model, individuals remain in the recovery class unless they relapse. Due to the limited availability of specialty treatment facilities for individuals with OUD, a saturation treat- ment function was incorporated. The second model is an extension of the first, where a casual user class and its corresponding specialty treatment class were added. Using U.S. population data, the data was scaled to a population of 200,000 to find parameter estimates. While the first model used the heroin-only dataset, the second model used both the heroin and all-illicit opioids datasets. Backward bifurcation was found in the first IOUD model for realistic parameter values. Additionally, bistability was observed in the second IOUD model with the heroin-only dataset. This result implies that it would be beneficial to increase the availability of treatment. An alarming effect was discovered about the high overdose death rate: by 2038, the disease-free equilibrium would be the only stable equilibrium. This consequence is concerning because although the goal is for the epidemic to end, it would be preferable to end it through treatment rather than overdose. The IOUD model with a casual user class, its sensitivity results, and the comparison of parameters for both datasets, showed the importance of not overlooking the influence that casual users have in driving the all-illicit opioid epidemic. Casual users stay in the casual user class longer and are not going to treatment as quickly as the users of the heroin epidemic. Another result was that the users of the all-illicit opioids were going to the recovered class by means other than specialty treatment. However, the relapse rates for those individuals were much more significant than in the heroin-only epidemic. The results above from analyzing these models may inform health and policy officials, leading to more effective treatment options and prevention efforts.
ContributorsCole, Sandra (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022