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Predicting Mechanical Failure of Vacuum Pumps Using Accelerometer Data

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The objective of this paper is to find and describe trends in the fast Fourier transformed accelerometer data that can be used to predict the mechanical failure of large vacuum pumps used in industrial settings, such as providing drinking water.

The objective of this paper is to find and describe trends in the fast Fourier transformed accelerometer data that can be used to predict the mechanical failure of large vacuum pumps used in industrial settings, such as providing drinking water. Using three-dimensional plots of the data, this paper suggests how a model can be developed to predict the mechanical failure of vacuum pumps.

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2019-05

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The Analysis of the Airflow around a Rotating Cylindrical Arrow

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This honors thesis explores and models the flow of air around a cylindrical arrow that is rotating as it moves through the air. This model represents the airflow around an archery arrow after it is released from the bow and

This honors thesis explores and models the flow of air around a cylindrical arrow that is rotating as it moves through the air. This model represents the airflow around an archery arrow after it is released from the bow and rotates while it flies through the air. This situation is important in archery because an understanding of the airflow allows archers to predict the flight of the arrow. As a result, archers can improve their accuracy and ability to hit targets. However, not many computational fluid dynamic simulations modeling the airflow around a rotating archery arrow exist. This thesis attempts to further the understanding of the airflow around a rotating archery arrow by creating a mathematical model to numerically simulate the airflow around the arrow in the presence of this rotation. This thesis uses a linearized approximation of the Navier Stokes equations to model the airflow around the arrow and explains the reasoning for using this simplification of the fully nonlinear Navier Stokes equations. This thesis continues to describe the discretization of these linearized equations using the finite difference method and the boundary conditions used for these equations. A MATLAB code solves the resulting system of equations in order to obtain a numerical simulation of this airflow around the rotating arrow. The results of the simulation for each velocity component and the pressure distribution are displayed. This thesis then discusses the results of the simulation, and the MATLAB code is analyzed to verify the convergence of the solution. Appendix A includes the full MATLAB code used for the flow simulation. Finally, this thesis explains potential future research topics, ideas, and improvements to the code that can help further the understanding and create more realistic simulations of the airflow around a flying archery arrow.

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2019-05

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Data-driven Modeling of TRPM8 Ion Channel Kinetics

Description

Ion channels in the membranes of cells in the body allow for the creation of action potentials from external stimuli, allowing us to sense our surroundings. One particular channel, TRPM8, is a trans-membrane ion channel believed to be the primary

Ion channels in the membranes of cells in the body allow for the creation of action potentials from external stimuli, allowing us to sense our surroundings. One particular channel, TRPM8, is a trans-membrane ion channel believed to be the primary cold sensor in humans. Despite this important biological role and intense study of the channel, TRPM8 is not fully understood mechanistically and has not been accurately modeled. Existing models of TRPM8 fail to account for menthol activation of the channel. In this paper we re-implement an established whole cell model for TRPM8 with gating by both voltage and temperature. Using experimental data obtained from the Van Horn lab at Arizona State University, we refined the model to represent more accurately the dynamics of the human TRPM8 channel and incorporate the channel activation through menthol agonist binding. Our new model provides a large improvement over preexisting models, and serves as a basis for future incorporation of other channel activators of TRPM8 and for the modeling of other channels in the TRP family.

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2019-05

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Worker Policing Mechanisms in Ponerine Ant Species

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For colonies of ponerine ant species, sterility regulation after a founding queen's death is not totally achieved in the worker caste, and the possibility of sexual reproduction is opened to workers. The persisting survival of these colonies is dependent on

For colonies of ponerine ant species, sterility regulation after a founding queen's death is not totally achieved in the worker caste, and the possibility of sexual reproduction is opened to workers. The persisting survival of these colonies is dependent on capturing the optimal reproductive ratio; yet, an informational gap bounds the mechanisms detailing the selection of new reproductives and the suppression of ovarian development in rejected reproductives. We investigated the mechanisms of worker policing, one of the primary methods of ovarian suppression, through continuous video observation for a period of five days at the start of colony instability. Observations suggest policing in H. saltator is performed by a majority of a colony, including potential reproductives, and requires multiple events to fully discourage ovarian growth.

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2018-12

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Utilizing Machine Learning Methods to Model Cryptocurrency

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Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using

Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.

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2018-05

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A Numerical and Analytical Study of Wave Reflection and Transmission across the Tropopause

Description

A numerical study of wave-induced momentum transport across the tropopause in the presence of a stably stratified thin inversion layer is presented and discussed. This layer consists of a sharp increase in static stability within the tropopause. The wave propagation

A numerical study of wave-induced momentum transport across the tropopause in the presence of a stably stratified thin inversion layer is presented and discussed. This layer consists of a sharp increase in static stability within the tropopause. The wave propagation is modeled by numerically solving the Taylor-Goldstein equation, which governs the dynamics of internal waves in stably stratified shear flows. The waves are forced by a flow over a bell shaped mountain placed at the lower boundary of the domain. A perfectly radiating condition based on the group velocity of mountain waves is imposed at the top to avoid artificial wave reflection. A validation for the numerical method through comparisons with the corresponding analytical solutions will be provided. Then, the method is applied to more realistic profiles of the stability to study the impact of these profiles on wave propagation through the tropopause.

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2017-05

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Statistical Properties of Coherent Structures in Two Dimensional Turbulence

Description

Coherent vortices are ubiquitous structures in natural flows that affect mixing and transport of substances and momentum/energy. Being able to detect these coherent structures is important for pollutant mitigation, ecological conservation and many other aspects. In recent years, mathematical criteria

Coherent vortices are ubiquitous structures in natural flows that affect mixing and transport of substances and momentum/energy. Being able to detect these coherent structures is important for pollutant mitigation, ecological conservation and many other aspects. In recent years, mathematical criteria and algorithms have been developed to extract these coherent structures in turbulent flows. In this study, we will apply these tools to extract important coherent structures and analyze their statistical properties as well as their implications on kinematics and dynamics of the flow. Such information will aide representation of small-scale nonlinear processes that large-scale models of natural processes may not be able to resolve.

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2018-05

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Jump Dynamics

Description

There are multiple mathematical models for alignment of individuals moving within a group. In a first class of models, individuals tend to relax their velocity toward the average velocity of other nearby neighbors. These types of models are motivated by

There are multiple mathematical models for alignment of individuals moving within a group. In a first class of models, individuals tend to relax their velocity toward the average velocity of other nearby neighbors. These types of models are motivated by the flocking behavior exhibited by birds. Another class of models have been introduced to describe rapid changes of individual velocity, referred to as jump, which better describes behavior of smaller agents (e.g. locusts, ants). In the second class of model, individuals will randomly choose to align with another nearby individual, matching velocities. There are several open questions concerning these two type of behavior: which behavior is the most efficient to create a flock (i.e. to converge toward the same velocity)? Will flocking still emerge when the number of individuals approach infinity? Analysis of these models show that, in the homogeneous case where all individuals are capable of interacting with each other, the variance of the velocities in both the jump model and the relaxation model decays to 0 exponentially for any nonzero number of individuals. This implies the individuals in the system converge to an absorbing state where all individuals share the same velocity, therefore individuals converge to a flock even as the number of individuals approach infinity. Further analysis focused on the case where interactions between individuals were determined by an adjacency matrix. The second eigenvalues of the Laplacian of this adjacency matrix (denoted ƛ2) provided a lower bound on the rate of decay of the variance. When ƛ2 is nonzero, the system is said to converge to a flock almost surely. Furthermore, when the adjacency matrix is generated by a random graph, such that connections between individuals are formed with probability p (where 01/N. ƛ2 is a good estimator of the rate of convergence of the system, in comparison to the value of p used to generate the adjacency matrix..

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2018-05

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Supplementing Traditional Symbolic Logic Instruction with Historical Background and Real-World Applications

Description

A thorough understanding of the key concepts of logic is critical for student success. Logic is often not explicitly taught as its own subject in modern curriculums, which results in misconceptions among students as to what comprises logical reasoning. In

A thorough understanding of the key concepts of logic is critical for student success. Logic is often not explicitly taught as its own subject in modern curriculums, which results in misconceptions among students as to what comprises logical reasoning. In addition, current standardized testing schemes often promote teaching styles which emphasize students' abilities to memorize set problem-solving methods over their capacities to reason abstractly and creatively. These phenomena, in tandem with halting progress in United States education compared to other developed nations, suggest that implementing logic courses into public schools and universities can better prepare students for professional careers and beyond. In particular, logic is essential for mathematics students as they transition from calculation-based courses to theoretical, proof-based classes. Many students find this adjustment difficult, and existing university-level courses which emphasize the technical aspects of symbolic logic do not fully bridge the gap between these two different approaches to mathematics. As a step towards resolving this problem, this project proposes a logic course which integrates historical, technical, and interdisciplinary investigations to present logic as a robust and meaningful subject warranting independent study. This course is designed with mathematics students in mind, with particular stresses on different formulations of deductively valid proof schemes. Additionally, this class can either be taught before existing logic classes in an effort to gradually expose students to logic over an extended period of time, or it can replace current logic courses as a more holistic introduction to the subject. The first section of the course investigates historical developments in studies of argumentation and logic throughout different civilizations; specifically, the works of ancient China, ancient India, ancient Greece, medieval Europe, and modernity are investigated. Along the way, several important themes are highlighted within appropriate historical contexts; these are often presented in an ad hoc way in courses emphasizing technical features of symbolic logic. After the motivations for modern symbolic logic are established, the key technical features of symbolic logic are presented, including: logical connectives, truth tables, logical equivalence, derivations, predicates, and quantifiers. Potential obstacles in students' understandings of these ideas are anticipated, and resolution methods are proposed. Finally, examples of how ideas of symbolic logic are manifested in many modern disciplines are presented. In particular, key concepts in game theory, computer science, biology, grammar, and mathematics are reformulated in the context of symbolic logic. By combining the three perspectives of historical context, technical aspects, and practical applications of symbolic logic, this course will ideally make logic a more meaningful and accessible subject for students.

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2018-05

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Linear Modeling for Insurance Ratemaking/Reserving: Modeling Loss Development Factors for Catastrophe Claims

Description

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.

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2018-05