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A Study of Win Expectancy Estimators in Major League Baseball

Description

In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not…

In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not perfect, and shows notable room for improvement. One such area that could be improved is its ability to be affected drastically by a single blowout game, a game in which one team significantly outscores their opponent. We hypothesize that meaningless runs scored in blowouts are harming the predictive power of Pythagorean Win-Loss and similar win expectancy statistics such as the Linear Formula for Baseball and BaseRuns. We developed a win probability-based cutoff approach that tallied the score of each game once a certain win probability threshold was passed, effectively removing those meaningless runs from a team’s season-long runs scored and runs allowed totals. These truncated totals were then inserted into the Pythagorean Win-Loss and Linear Formulas and tested against the base models. The preliminary results show that, while certain runs are more meaningful than others depending on the situation in which they are scored, the base models more accurately predicted future record than our truncated versions. For now, there is not enough evidence to either confirm or reject our hypothesis. In this paper, we suggest several potential improvement strategies for the results. At the end, we address how these results speak to the importance of responsibility and restraint when using advanced statistics within reporting.

ContributorsIversen, Joshua Allen (Author) / Satpathy, Asish (Thesis director) / Kurland, Brett (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Comm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Relative performance evaluation and the use of discretionary bonuses in executive compensation

Description

In this study, I examine the extent to which firms rely on relative performance evaluation (RPE) when setting executive compensation. In particular, I examine whether firms use information about peer performance to determine compensation at the end of the year, i.e. after both firm and peer performance are observed. I…

In this study, I examine the extent to which firms rely on relative performance evaluation (RPE) when setting executive compensation. In particular, I examine whether firms use information about peer performance to determine compensation at the end of the year, i.e. after both firm and peer performance are observed. I find that RPE is most pronounced for firms that allow little or no scope for ex post subjective adjustments to annual bonuses. Conversely, firms that rely mainly on subjectivity in determining bonus exhibit little use of RPE. These findings suggest that information about peer performance is not used at the end of the year. Instead, peer performance seems to be incorporated in performance targets at the beginning of the year, at least among firms primarily using objective performance measurements. In addition, I provide new evidence on the determinants of the use of subjectivity.

ContributorsTsui, Stephanie (Author) / Matejka, Michal (Thesis advisor) / Hwang, Yuhchang (Committee member) / Kaplan, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Participation in employee stock option exchange programs and future stock returns

Description

In this paper, I investigate whether participation in employee stock option exchange programs contains private information about future stock returns. High participation in employee stock option exchange programs is associated with negative future abnormal returns over the ensuing 12-month period. This association is moderated by the transparency of the firm's…

In this paper, I investigate whether participation in employee stock option exchange programs contains private information about future stock returns. High participation in employee stock option exchange programs is associated with negative future abnormal returns over the ensuing 12-month period. This association is moderated by the transparency of the firm's information environment: high institutional ownership and high financial statement informativeness weaken the negative relation between participation and abnormal returns. Controlling for transparency of the firms' information environment, the association between participation and future returns arises primarily from firms that allow the CEO to participate.

ContributorsMakridis, Vanessa Radick (Author) / Matejka, Michal (Thesis advisor) / Hwang, Yuhchang (Committee member) / Kaplan, Steven E (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Value of Twitter: Using Text Mining Methods to Gain Insight into the 2016 Presidential Race

Description

This project analyzes the tweets from the 2016 US Presidential Candidates' personal Twitter accounts. The goal is to define distinct patterns and differences between candidates and parties use of social media as a platform. The data spans the period of September 2015 to March 2016, which was during the primary…

This project analyzes the tweets from the 2016 US Presidential Candidates' personal Twitter accounts. The goal is to define distinct patterns and differences between candidates and parties use of social media as a platform. The data spans the period of September 2015 to March 2016, which was during the primary races for the Republicans and Democrats. The overall purpose of this project is to contribute to finding new ways of driving value from social media, in particular Twitter.

ContributorsMortimer, Schuyler Kenneth (Author) / Simon, Alan (Thesis director) / Mousavi, Seyedreza (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2016-05

JOB ORDER CONTRACTING COST AND BENEFITS ANALYSIS RESEARCH

Description

The Performance Based Studies Research Studies Group (PBSRG) at Arizona State University (ASU) has been studying the cause of increased cost and time in construction and other projects for the last 20 years. Through two longitudinal studies with a group of owners in the state of Minnesota (400 tests over…

The Performance Based Studies Research Studies Group (PBSRG) at Arizona State University (ASU) has been studying the cause of increased cost and time in construction and other projects for the last 20 years. Through two longitudinal studies with a group of owners in the state of Minnesota (400 tests over six years) and the US Army Medical Command (400 tests over four years), the client/buyer has been identified as the largest risk and source of project cost and time deviations. This has been confirmed by over 1,500 tests conducted over the past 20 years. The focus of this research effort is to analyze the economic and performance impact of a delivery process of construction called the Job Order Contracting (JOC) process, to evaluate the value (in terms of time, cost, and customer satisfaction) achieved when utilizing JOC over other traditional methods to complete projects. JOC's strength is that it minimizes the need for the owner to manage, direct and control (MDC) through a lengthy traditional process of design, bid, and award of a construction contract. The study identifies the potential economic savings of utilizing JOC. This paper looks at the results of an ongoing study surveying eight different public universities. The results of the research show that in comparison to more traditional models, JOC has large cost savings, and is preferable among most owners who have used multiple delivery systems.

ContributorsLi, Hao (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2015-12

Creating an Accounting Software Program: Small Business Focus

Description

This software can process transactions for small businesses and store those transactions for reporting purposes. The specific build is tailor made for a small business run by the author and their partners. The software is a customized, in house solution for maintaining accurate accounting information. It uses C# code and…

This software can process transactions for small businesses and store those transactions for reporting purposes. The specific build is tailor made for a small business run by the author and their partners. The software is a customized, in house solution for maintaining accurate accounting information. It uses C# code and windows forms to create a unique GUI to both enter and retrieve data. The code for each form is attached at the end of the user manual.

ContributorsGodfrey, David Emmanuel (Author) / Olsen, Christopher (Thesis director) / Anderson, Dennis (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)

Created2014-05

Monocular

Description

Monocular is a user engagement application that offers a website owner the opportunity to track user behavior and use the data to better understand the site's strengths and weaknesses in terms of user satisfaction and motivation. This data allows the customer to make improvements to a website, resulting in a…

Monocular is a user engagement application that offers a website owner the opportunity to track user behavior and use the data to better understand the site's strengths and weaknesses in terms of user satisfaction and motivation. This data allows the customer to make improvements to a website, resulting in a better user experience and potential for an improved bottom line.

ContributorsHooke, Wade (Co-author) / Ortiz-Monasterio, Diego (Co-author) / Clark, Joseph (Thesis director) / Prince, Linda (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)

Created2014-05

Home Advantage in Sports: The Value it Holds with COVID Restrictions

Description

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage…

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage include the crowd, facility familiarity, and travel. In the English Premier League, there are no fans allowed at any of the games; furthermore, in the NBA, a bubble was created at one neutral venue with no fans in attendance. Even with the NBA being at a neutral site, there was still a “home team” at every game. The sports betting industry struggled due to failing to shift betting lines in accordance with this decreased home advantage. With these leagues removing some of the factors that are frequently associated with home advantage, analysts are able to better see what the results would be of removing these variables. The purpose of this research is to determine if these adjustments made due to COVID had an impact on the home advantage in different leagues around the world, and if they did, to what extent. Individual game data from the past 10 seasons were used for analysis of both the NBA and the Premier League. The results show that there is a significant difference in win percentage between prior seasons and seasons behind closed doors. In addition to win percentage, many other game statistics see a significant shift as well. Overall, the significance of being the home team disappears in games following the COVID-19 break.

ContributorsOsborne, Ashley A (Author) / Sopha, Matthew (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

ACC/CSE Thesis Project

Description

Developed a business product with a team of CS Students

ContributorsHernandez, Maximilliano (Co-author) / Schneider, Kaitlin (Co-author) / Perri, Cole (Co-author) / Call, Andy (Thesis director) / Hunt, Neil (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Scandal: An Ethics Game on the Importance of Accurate GAAP and FASB Reporting for Public Corporations

Description

Financial statements are one of the most important, if not the most important, documents for investors. These statements are prepared quarterly and yearly by the company accounting department, and are then audited in detail by a large external accounting firm. Investors use these documents to determine the value of the…

Financial statements are one of the most important, if not the most important, documents for investors. These statements are prepared quarterly and yearly by the company accounting department, and are then audited in detail by a large external accounting firm. Investors use these documents to determine the value of the company, and trust that the company was truthful in its statements, and the auditing firm correctly audited the company's financial statements for any mistakes in their books and balances. Mistakes on a company's financial statements can be costly. However, financial fraud on the statements can be outright disastrous. Penalties for accounting fraud can include individual lifetime prison sentences, as well as company fines for billions of dollars. As students in the accounting major, it is our responsibility to ensure that financial statements are accurate and truthful to protect ourselves, other stakeholders, and the companies we work for. This ethics game takes the stories of Enron, WorldCom, and Lehman Brothers and uses them to help students identify financial fraud and how it can be prevented, as well as the consequences behind unethical decisions in financial reporting. The Enron scandal involved CEO Kenneth Lay and his predecessor Jeffery Skilling hiding losses in their financial statements with the help of their auditing firm, Arthur Andersen. Enron collapsed in 2002, and Lay was sentenced to 45 years in prison with his conspirator Skilling sentenced to 24 years in prison. In the WorldCom scandal, CEO Bernard "Bernie" Ebbers booked line costs as capital expenses (overstating WorldCom's assets), and created fraudulent accounts to inflate revenue and WorldCom's profit. Ebbers was sentenced to 25 years in prison and lost his title as WorldCom's Chief Executive Officer. Lehman Brothers took advantage of a loophole in accounting procedure Repo 105, that let the firm hide $50 billion in profits. No one at Lehman Brothers was sentenced to jail since the transaction was technically considered legal, but Lehman was the largest investment bank to fail and the only large financial institution that was not bailed out by the U.S. government.

ContributorsPanikkar, Manoj Madhuraj (Author) / Samuelson, Melissa (Thesis director) / Ahmad, Altaf (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2016-05

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