Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on…
Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost trends in many ways. First, direct COVID-19 costs may increase…
Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost trends in many ways. First, direct COVID-19 costs may increase the amount of total experienced healthcare costs. However, with the implementation of social distancing, the amount of regularly scheduled care may be deferred to a future date. There are also many unknown factors regarding the transmission of the virus. Implementing epidemiology models allows us to predict infections by studying the dynamics of the disease. The correlation between infection amounts and hospitalization occupancies provide a methodology to estimate the amount of deferred and recouped amounts of regularly scheduled healthcare costs. Thus, the combination of the models allows to model the healthcare cost trend impact due to COVID-19.
Traditional public health strategies for assessing human behavior, exposure, and activity are considered resource-exhaustive, time-consuming, and expensive, warranting a need for alternative methods to enhance data acquisition and subsequent interventions. This dissertation critically evaluated the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as an inclusive and non-invasive tool for conducting near real-time…
Traditional public health strategies for assessing human behavior, exposure, and activity are considered resource-exhaustive, time-consuming, and expensive, warranting a need for alternative methods to enhance data acquisition and subsequent interventions. This dissertation critically evaluated the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as an inclusive and non-invasive tool for conducting near real-time population health assessments. A rigorous literature review was performed to gauge the current landscape of WBE to monitor for biomarkers indicative of diet, as well as exposure to estrogen-mimicking endocrine disrupting (EED) chemicals via route of ingestion. Wastewater-derived measurements of phytoestrogens from August 2017 through July 2019 (n = 156 samples) in a small sewer catchment revealed seasonal patterns, with highest average per capita consumption rates in January through March of each year (2018: 7.0 ± 2.0 mg d-1; 2019: 8.2 ± 2.3 mg d-1) and statistically significant differences (p = 0.01) between fall and winter (3.4 ± 1.2 vs. 6.1 ± 2.9 mg d-1; p ≤ 0.01) and spring and summer (5.6 ± 2.1 vs. 3.4 ± 1.5 mg d-1; p ≤ 0.01). Additional investigations, including a human gut microbial composition analysis of community wastewater, were performed to support a methodological framework for future implementation of WBE to assess population-level dietary behavior. In response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, a high-frequency, high-resolution sample collection approach with public data sharing was implemented throughout the City of Tempe, Arizona, and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 (E gene) from April 2020 through March 2021 (n = 1,556 samples). Results indicate early warning capability during the first wave (June 2020) compared to newly reported clinical cases (8.5 ± 2.1 days), later transitioning to a slight lagging indicator in December/January 2020-21 (-2.0 ± 1.4 days). A viral hotspot from within a larger catchment area was detected, prompting targeted interventions to successfully mitigate community spread; reinforcing the importance of sample collection within the sewer infrastructure. I conclude that by working in tandem with traditional approaches, WBE can enlighten a comprehensive understanding of population health, with methods and strategies implemented in this work recommended for future expansion to produce timely, actionable data in support of public health.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 has affected every aspect of society, including the performing arts. This study creates a historic record of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Navy Band Southwest (NBSW), located in San Diego, CA. It is an account of Navy Band Southwest’s journey under my direction as the…
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 has affected every aspect of society, including the performing arts. This study creates a historic record of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Navy Band Southwest (NBSW), located in San Diego, CA. It is an account of Navy Band Southwest’s journey under my direction as the Bandmaster and the transformation from live music performances to performances in the virtual environment from March 2020 until September 2021. The paper details safety protocols developed by the NBSW leadership team that were implemented following Center for Disease Control and Department of Defense overarching guidance. It also examines the process of development of recording techniques, both audio and video, as well as hardware used to create virtual band performances. Chapters cover NBSW operations pre-COVID, development of the virtual music-making process, and the creation of specific projects, including an original commission for wind band that was conceived, composed, rehearsed, and recorded entirely in a virtual environment. This paper aims to capture the perseverance and professionalism of U. S. Navy Sailors and how these musicians adapted to continue making music during forced isolation and quarantine. An archive of selected performances is included with this document.
This work explores the dynamics in emergence, deployment, and execution of modern technoscientific initiatives in the U.S. government. I focus on the federal initiative that developed vaccine and other responses to the Covid-19 crisis. This included federal policy mechanisms used during crisis, political and financial risk in federal technoscientific solutions,…
This work explores the dynamics in emergence, deployment, and execution of modern technoscientific initiatives in the U.S. government. I focus on the federal initiative that developed vaccine and other responses to the Covid-19 crisis. This included federal policy mechanisms used during crisis, political and financial risk in federal technoscientific solutions, and conditions for technoscientific solutions success. The focus on these dynamics during crisis response is an approach to understanding overarching governance of technoscientific initiatives in non-crisis times. The process of exploration includes a series of interviews with senior officials engaged in technoscientific initiative development. Two studies governed by the tenets of the Delphi approach were completed, one in 2020 with senior government officials engaged in Operation Warp Speed, and another in 2021 with former senior government officials involved in government-funded technoscientific initiatives including the National Nanotechnology Initiative, the National Manufacturing Initiative, and the Precision Medicine Initiative. These results were coded and then the data were triangulated and corroborated through the use of public media, follow up interviews, and fact-checking in the local Washington, D.C. policy network. This work reveals a series of theoretical, policy, and practical results. The theoretical contributions include that high profile technoscientific initiatives are undertheorized in Innovation Policy and Science and Technology Studies. This work also establishes an early typology of U.S. government technoscientific initiatives. In addition, this work suggests policy and practical contributions regarding federal responses to emerging crises, as well as lessons from crisis-intervention policies that might be useful without crises.
The unprecedented amount and sources of information during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an indiscriminate level of misinformation that was confusing and compromised healthcare access and delivery. The World Health Organization (WHO) called this an ‘infodemic’, and conspiracy theories and fake news about COVID-19, plagued public health efforts to contain…
The unprecedented amount and sources of information during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an indiscriminate level of misinformation that was confusing and compromised healthcare access and delivery. The World Health Organization (WHO) called this an ‘infodemic’, and conspiracy theories and fake news about COVID-19, plagued public health efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. National and international public health priorities expanded to counter misinformation. As a multi-disciplinary study encompassing expertise from public health, informatics, and communication, this research focused on eliciting strategies to better understand and combat misinformation on COVID-19. The study hypotheses is that 1) factors influencing vaccine-acceptance like socio-demographic factors, COVID-19 knowledge, trust in institutions, and media related factors could be leveraged for public health education and intervention; and 2) individuals with a high level of knowledge regarding COVID-19 prevention and control have unique behaviors and practices, like nuanced media literacy and validation skills that could be promoted to improve vaccine acceptance and preventative health behaviors. In this biphasic study an initial survey of 1,498 individuals sampled from Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) assessed socio-demographic factors, an 18-item test of COVID-19 knowledge, trust in healthcare stakeholders, and measures of media literacy and consumption. Subsequently, using the Positive Deviance Framework, a diverse subset of 25 individuals with high COVID-19 knowledge scores were interviewed to identify these deviants’ information and media practices that helped avoid COVID-19 misinformation. Access to primary care, higher educational attainment and living in urban communities were positive socio-demographic predictors of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance emphasizing the need to invest in education and rural health. High COVID-19 knowledge and trust in government and health providers were also critical factors and associated with a higher level of trust in science and credible information sources like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and health experts. Positive deviants practiced media literacy skills that emphasized checking sources for scientific basis as well as hidden bias; cross-checking information across multiple sources and verifying health information with scientific experts. These identified information validation and confirmation practices may be useful in educating the public and designing strategies to better protect communities against harmful health misinformation.
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries took serious measures to control its spread and reduce its effect on health, social, and economic aspects. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has taken unprecedented preventive measures against the spread of COVID-19, including complete lockdowns and the closing of some businesses. Therefore, 27%…
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries took serious measures to control its spread and reduce its effect on health, social, and economic aspects. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has taken unprecedented preventive measures against the spread of COVID-19, including complete lockdowns and the closing of some businesses. Therefore, 27% of companies expected to lose their businesses within a month, while 43% of companies expected to go out of business within six months. This was not only due to the countrywide lockdown, or the impacts caused by the pandemic, but also due to the bad leadership of some leaders during this crisis. There are little of studies and data that discuss the consequences of these decisions on businesses, and it will be helpful to measure the consequences over three years. This study answers the following question: How much did myopic staffing and compensation decisions in the context of COVID-19 affect companies’ performance? To answer this question, I use agent-based modeling (ABM) supported by secondary data to create a simulation to study the consequences of myopic decisions made on employees’ performance in the private sector in the United Arab Emirates starting from the 2020 year and through an anticipated period of 3 years . The study found that under the assumptions that pay deductions, layoffs, and unpaid leaves, are myopic decisions and in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the companies’ performance, there is a huge affect on companies’ performance over the study period which is 3 years.
Keywords: bad leadership, myopic decisions, companies, businesses, COVID-19, agent-based model.
As the construction industry in Saudi Arabia was on its way to thriving again. Their growth was due to the unprecedented volume of planned projects such as large-scale and unique projects. Suddenly, the world was faced with one of the most disrupting events in the last century which had a…
As the construction industry in Saudi Arabia was on its way to thriving again. Their growth was due to the unprecedented volume of planned projects such as large-scale and unique projects. Suddenly, the world was faced with one of the most disrupting events in the last century which had a devastating impact on the construction industry specifically. This paper explores mainly the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on construction projects in Saudi Arabia. Particularly, this paper explores how the pandemic and its related events contributed to the projects' schedule disturbances. This is because most of the projects rely on manpower and supply chains which were heavily disrupted due to the protective measures. For that, a study was conducted to evaluate the impact on the construction projects in Saudi Arabia, to what extent the schedule projects were affected, and what were the main reasons for the schedule delays. The research relied on a field survey and schedule analysis for 12 projects which resulted in identifying several causes of delays and the delayed durations that the projects in Saudi Arabia were facing. This research allows those in construction fields to identify the main causes of delays in order to avoid or minimize the impact of these issues on future projects.
Recent life tables provided by the Society of Actuaries demonstrate mortality rate estimates for the United States by year from 1982 through 2018, separated by socioeconomic deciles and quintiles. These estimates were utilized to determine how life insurance rates might vary based on the socioeconomic category of a specific United…
Recent life tables provided by the Society of Actuaries demonstrate mortality rate estimates for the United States by year from 1982 through 2018, separated by socioeconomic deciles and quintiles. These estimates were utilized to determine how life insurance rates might vary based on the socioeconomic category of a specific United States county. The aim of this study is to determine how the data provided in these life tables can be utilized to curate life insurance rates and plan designs for employees at a specific company in the United States. The results indicate that there are significant differences in mortality across these socioeconomic quintiles, including greater life expectancy for individuals located in counties of a higher quintile. While there are no limits to the implications of these results in the insurance industry, this report highlights how the demographics of individuals working for a specific company could potentially alter life insurance rates for its employees.