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- All Subjects: Economics
- All Subjects: Analytics
- Creators: Department of Information Systems
- Resource Type: Text
Description
In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not perfect, and shows notable room for improvement. One such area that could be improved is its ability to be affected drastically by a single blowout game, a game in which one team significantly outscores their opponent.<br/>We hypothesize that meaningless runs scored in blowouts are harming the predictive power of Pythagorean Win-Loss and similar win expectancy statistics such as the Linear Formula for Baseball and BaseRuns. We developed a win probability-based cutoff approach that tallied the score of each game once a certain win probability threshold was passed, effectively removing those meaningless runs from a team’s season-long runs scored and runs allowed totals. These truncated totals were then inserted into the Pythagorean Win-Loss and Linear Formulas and tested against the base models.<br/>The preliminary results show that, while certain runs are more meaningful than others depending on the situation in which they are scored, the base models more accurately predicted future record than our truncated versions. For now, there is not enough evidence to either confirm or reject our hypothesis. In this paper, we suggest several potential improvement strategies for the results.<br/>At the end, we address how these results speak to the importance of responsibility and restraint when using advanced statistics within reporting.
ContributorsIversen, Joshua Allen (Author) / Satpathy, Asish (Thesis director) / Kurland, Brett (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Comm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
This thesis was conducted to study and analyze the fund allocation process adopted by different states in the United States to reduce the impact of the Covid-19 virus. Seven different states and their funding methodologies were compared against the case count within the state. The study also focused on development of a physical distancing index based on three significant attributes. This index was then compared to the expenditure and case counts to support decision making.
A regression model was developed to analyze and compare how different states case counts played out against the regression model and the risk index.
ContributorsJaisinghani, Shaurya (Author) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Thesis director) / Clough, Michael (Committee member) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
The current model of revenue generation for some free to play video games is preventing the companies controlling them from growing, but with a few changes in approach these issues could be alleviated. A new style of video games, called a MOBA (Massive Online Battle Arena) has emerged in the past few years bringing with it a new style of generating wealth. Contrary to past gaming models, where users must either purchase the game outright, view advertisements, or purchase items to gain a competitive advantage, MOBAs require no payment of any kind. These are free to play computer games that provides users with all the tools necessary to compete with anyone free of charge; no advantages can be purchased in this game. This leaves the only way for users to provide money to the company through optional purchases of purely aesthetic items, only to be purchased if the buyer wishes to see their character in a different set of attire. The genre’s best in show—called League of Legends, or LOL—has spearheaded this method of revenue-generation. Fortunately for LOL, its level of popularity has reached levels never seen in video games: the world championships had more viewers than game 7 of the NBA Finals (Dorsey). The player base alone is enough to keep the company afloat currently, but the fact that they only convert 3.75% of the players into revenue is alarming. Each player brings the company an average of $1.32, or 30% of what some other free to play games earn per user (Comparing MMO). It is this low per player income that has caused Riot Games, the developer of LOL, to state that their e-sports division is not currently profitable. To resolve this issue, LOL must take on a more aggressive marketing plan. Advertisements for the NBA Finals cost $460,000 for 30 seconds, and LOL should aim for ads in this range (Lombardo). With an average of 3 million people logged on at any time, 90% of the players being male and 85% being between the ages of 16 and 30, advertising via this game would appeal to many companies, making a deal easy to strike (LOL infographic 2012). The idea also appeals to players: 81% of players surveyed said that an advertisement on the client that allows for the option to place an order would improve or not impact their experience. Moving forward with this, the gaming client would be updated to contain both an option to order pizza and an advertisement for Mountain Dew. This type of advertising was determined based on community responses through a sequence of survey questions. These small adjustments to the game would allow LOL to generate enough income for Riot Games to expand into other areas of the e-sports industry.
ContributorsSeip, Patrick (Co-author) / Zhao, BoNing (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This project analyzes the tweets from the 2016 US Presidential Candidates' personal Twitter accounts. The goal is to define distinct patterns and differences between candidates and parties use of social media as a platform. The data spans the period of September 2015 to March 2016, which was during the primary races for the Republicans and Democrats. The overall purpose of this project is to contribute to finding new ways of driving value from social media, in particular Twitter.
ContributorsMortimer, Schuyler Kenneth (Author) / Simon, Alan (Thesis director) / Mousavi, Seyedreza (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This paper explores the history of sovereign debt default in developing economies and attempts to highlight the mistakes and accomplishments toward achieving debt sustainability. In the past century, developing economies have received considerable investment due to higher returns and a degree of disregard for the risks accompanying these investments. As the former Citibank chairman, Walter Wriston articulated, "Countries don't go bust" (This Time is Different, 51). Still, unexpected negative externalities have shattered this idea as the majority of developing economies follow a cyclical pattern of default. As coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, sovereign governments that fall into this continuous cycle have become known as serial defaulters. Most developed markets have not defaulted since World War II, thus escaping this persistent trap. Still, there have been developing economies that have been able to transition out of serial defaulting. These economies are able to leverage debt to compound growth without incurring the protracted consequences of a default. Although the cases are few, we argue that developing markets such as Chile, Mexico, Russia, and Uruguay have been able to escape this vicious cycle. Thus, our research indicates that collaborative debt restructurings coupled with long term economic policies are imperative to transitioning out of debt intolerance and into a sustainable debt position. Successful economies are able to leverage debt to create strong foundational growth rather than gambling with debt in the hopes of achieving rapid catch- up growth.
ContributorsPitt, Ryan (Co-author) / Martinez, Nick (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Silverman, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
A growing number of jobs in the US require a college degree or technical education, and the wage difference between jobs requiring a high school diploma and a college education has increased to over $17,000 per year. Enrollment levels in postsecondary education have been rising for at least the past decade, and this paper attempts to tease out how much of the increasing enrollment is due to changes in the demand by companies for workers. A Bartik Instrument, which is a measure of local area labor demand, for each county in the US was constructed from 2007 to 2014, and using multivariate linear regression the effect of changing labor demand on local postsecondary education enrollment rates was examined. A small positive effect was found, but the effect size in relation to the total change in enrollment levels was diminutive. From the start to the end of the recession (2007 to 2010), Bartik Instrument calculated unemployment increased from 5.3% nationally to 8.2%. This level of labor demand contraction would lead to a 0.42% increase in enrollment between 2008 and 2011. The true enrollment increase over this period was 7.6%, so the model calculated 5.5% of the enrollment increase was based on the changes in labor demand.
ContributorsHerder, Daniel Steven (Author) / Dillon, Eleanor (Thesis director) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
A social phenomenon in the United States characterizes French language and culture by aristocracy and prestige, sometimes even going so far as to align francophones with pretentiousness or false sophistication. By means of etymological analysis of the registers of American politics, economics, higher education, fashion, and art, I present the remarkable consistency (if not disproportionality) of French-derived vocabulary within the lexicons of these upper class cultural territories. Final conclusion is reached using the analytic lenses of linguist Norman Fairclough and sociologist Thorstein Veblen in their respective works Language and Power and Theory of the Leisure Class, which together supply a sociolinguistic understanding of the French-elite nexus. Using such information, I seek to explain the phenomenon as an American ideological concept. As French expressions are substantially and conspicuously employed within the lexicons and customs of the aforementioned cultural territories of the American upper class, French lexicality and culture become entangled with high society (sociolexical entanglement) and popular aesthetics (vogue lexicality). This intermixture subsequently engenders a French-elite nexus that manifests through either lexical emulation or lexical disaffection. To illustrate this occurrence, I offer evidence of America's persuasion of its upper class's association with French by presenting relevant expressions in the class-pervasive medium of American cinema. I argue that, in entirety, these sociolexical components frame the development of a larger French-elite ideology.
ContributorsSeby, Charles Michael (Author) / Bahtchevanova, Mariana (Thesis director) / Poteet, Lesley (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The rise of Italian in Sicily contrasts with a fierce regional pride that makes it difficult to determine the possible fate of Sicilian. This project focuses on a sociolinguistic analysis of the dialect of Sicilian spoken in and around Catania, Sicily. While there are programs in place to protect the language, the institutionalization of Italian in Sicily may be encroaching on Sicilian's use, especially with younger generations. The lure of the more industrialized North creates a culture of immigration in Sicily, which increasingly rewards the use of Italian. Using information from background research, a survey analyzing sociolinguistic factors and the individual's fluency in and use of Sicilian was created. The data from the survey showed that while understanding of Sicilian was fairly universal among participants, an individual's use and proficiency in Sicilian were most influenced by age and current place of residence (inside or outside Sicily). Younger people tended to know and use Sicilian less, and older participants tended to be more confident in their abilities and to use Sicilian more often. This is slightly complicated by an additional trend among participants currently living outside of Sicily towards a lower level of use and knowledge of Sicilian. All participants placed a significant emphasis on maintaining the ability to speak Sicilian, and on Sicilian language as an integral part of Sicilian culture.
ContributorsScaduto, Leah Christine (Author) / Dal Martello, Chiara (Thesis director) / Adams, Karen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit substance in the United States with over two million pounds seized annually and with a usage rate estimated at 19.8 million people in 2013 (SAMSHA, 2014). Currently there is a nationwide movement for the legalization of recreational marijuana via referendum at the state level. Three states and the District of Columbia have already adopted amendments legalizing marijuana and over a dozen more currently have pending ballots. This report explores what would be the impact of legalizing marijuana in Arizona through the examination of data from Colorado and other governmental sources. Using a benefit/cost analysis the data is used to determine what the effect the legalization of marijuana would have in Arizona. I next examined the moral arguments for legalization. Finally I propose a recommendation for how the issue of the legalization of recreational marijuana should be approached in Arizona.
ContributorsDiPietro, Samuel Miles (Author) / Kalika, Dale (Thesis director) / Lynk, Myles (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Monocular is a user engagement application that offers a website owner the opportunity to track user behavior and use the data to better understand the site's strengths and weaknesses in terms of user satisfaction and motivation. This data allows the customer to make improvements to a website, resulting in a better user experience and potential for an improved bottom line.
ContributorsHooke, Wade (Co-author) / Ortiz-Monasterio, Diego (Co-author) / Clark, Joseph (Thesis director) / Prince, Linda (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2014-05