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Unrestricted Mexican exports of sugar into the U.S. is considered the most pressing issue facing the U.S. sugar industry. The goal of this dissertation is to analyze the trade of sugar between Mexico and the U.S. as well as analyze additional primary issues confronting the U.S. sugar industry. Chapters 1

Unrestricted Mexican exports of sugar into the U.S. is considered the most pressing issue facing the U.S. sugar industry. The goal of this dissertation is to analyze the trade of sugar between Mexico and the U.S. as well as analyze additional primary issues confronting the U.S. sugar industry. Chapters 1 and 2 provide an introduction to the U.S. sugar industry. Chapters 3 through 6 develop trade models which analyze sugar trade between Mexico and the U.S. The trade models estimate how NAFTA, USDA sugar forecast errors and Mexican ownership of twenty percent of the Mexican sugar industry each impact U.S. producer surplus and Mexican welfare. Results validate that U.S. producer surplus and in some instances Mexican welfare were decreased by full implementation of NAFTA. U.S. producer surplus and Mexican welfare were decreased due to USDA sugar production forecasting errors. U.S. producer surplus would be increased if the Mexican government did not own twenty percent of Mexican sugar production. Using an online choice experiment, Chapter 7 assesses U.S. consumers' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for imported and genetically modified (GM) labeled sugar and sugar in soft drinks. Results indicate that consumers prefer bags of sugar and soft drinks labeled as "Not GM". Furthermore, consumers prefer sugar from Canada and the U.S. over sugar from Mexico, Brazil and the Philippines. Evidence is also provided that participants are more likely to choose actual products in the choice set rather than the "none of these" options when controlling for hypothetical bias by using consequentiality techniques. A non-hypothetical experimental auction was used in Chapter 8 to determine consumers' WTP for soft drinks labeled with sweetener and calorie information and analyzed the role of taste panels in an experimental auction. Results indicate that sugar is consumers' most preferred sweetener and calorie labeling is ineffective at influencing consumers to choose healthier soft drinks. Including taste in an experimental auction caused significant reductions in consumers' WTP for all soft drinks. Chapter 9 concludes by summarizing the results of this dissertation and discussing the future challenges facing the U.S. sugar industry.
ContributorsLewis, Karen Elizabeth (Author) / Schmitz, Troy (Thesis advisor) / Grebitus, Carola (Committee member) / Manfredo, Mark (Committee member) / Ketcham, Andrea (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Descriptionyour words
ContributorsWang, Dan, M.S (Author) / Grebitus, Carola (Thesis advisor) / Schroeter, Christiane (Committee member) / Manfredo, Mark (Committee member) / Hughner, Renee (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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The current Solid-State Electrolyte (SSE) used in Li-ion batteries are limited by their current production methods (i.e., die-pressing; tape casting), planar geometries and random porosities. This constrains their use for mass production in manufacturing plants. 3D-printing of SSEs, however, is a new, highly-researched method that shows promise in expanding beyond

The current Solid-State Electrolyte (SSE) used in Li-ion batteries are limited by their current production methods (i.e., die-pressing; tape casting), planar geometries and random porosities. This constrains their use for mass production in manufacturing plants. 3D-printing of SSEs, however, is a new, highly-researched method that shows promise in expanding beyond the laboratory to more large-scale industrial production as rapid prototyping takes place. Indeed, laboratory studies to date suggest that SSE technology is safer than current production methods and provides a safe high energy solid-state battery. For SSE technology to become a reality though, it must be scalable and financially feasible. Therefore, this thesis aids to bridge the gap between laboratory studies and commercialization by examining the financial feasibility of adopting this technology for a hypothetical battery manufacturing plant. In doing this, I develop a model of the incremental net cash flows, and subsequently the Net Present Value (NPV), from such an enterprise. If the present value of future cash flows from the enterprise are anticipated to be greater than the investment costs, the NPV is positive and the investment in this new technology would be considered instantaneously value enhancing and thus financially feasible. However, future cash flows are highly uncertain, which brings into question financial feasibility in a risky environment. To address the riskiness of future cash flows, I model three risk factors: the cost of raw materials, the potential growth in battery sales, as well as the potential mark-up (profit margin) of the SSE enterprise. Using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) I model the incremental cash flows considering these risk factors and derive probabilistic assessments of NPV. My analysis suggests that despite the uncertainty caused by the volatility of raw metal prices, assumptions on price mark-up, and uncertain market demand for Li-ion batteries, there is a high probability of an investment in SSE batteries being financially feasible. Future research should consider the value of real options (optionality embedded in tangible investments) as traditional NPV analysis may underestimate the potential value of an investment in the presence of uncertain cash flows, especially if management has the ability to respond to the uncertainty.

ContributorsFonseca, Nathan (Author) / Manfredo, Mark (Thesis director) / Kannan, Arunachala Mada (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Engineering Programs (Contributor)
Created2022-05