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- All Subjects: Economics
- Creators: Silverman, Daniel
- Creators: Schoellman, Todd
Description
The dissertation consists of two essays in misallocation and development. In particular, the essays explore how government policies distort resource allocation across production units, and therefore affect aggregate economic and environmental outcomes.
The first chapter studies the aggregate consequences of misallocation in a firm dynamics model with multi-establishment firms. I calibrate my model to the US firm size distribution with respect to both the number of employees and the number of establishments, and use it to study distortions that are correlated with establishment size, or so-called size-dependent distortions to establishments, which are modeled as implicit output taxes. In contrast to previous studies, I find that size-dependent distortions are not more damaging to aggregate productivity and output than size-independent distortions, while the implicit tax revenue approximately summarizes the effects on aggregate output. I also use the model to compare the effects of size-dependent distortions to establishments and to firms, and find that they have different effects on firm size distribution, but have similar effects on aggregate output.
The second chapter studies the effects of product market frictions on firm size distribution and their implications for industrial pollution in China. Using a unique micro-level manufacturing census, I find that larger firms generate and emit less pollutants per unit of production. I also provide evidence suggesting the existence of size-dependent product market frictions that disproportionately affect larger firms. Using a model with firms heterogeneous in productivity and an endogenous choice of pollution treatment technology, I show that these frictions result in lower adoption rate of clean technology, higher pollution and lower aggregate output. I use the model to evaluate policies that eliminate size-dependent frictions, and those that increase environmental regulation. Quantitative results show that eliminating size-dependent frictions increases output by 30%. Meanwhile, the fraction of firms using clean technology increases by 27% and aggregate pollution decreases by 20%. In contrast, a regulatory policy which increases the clean technology adoption rate by the same 27%, has no effect on aggregate output and leads to only 10% reduction in aggregate pollution.
The first chapter studies the aggregate consequences of misallocation in a firm dynamics model with multi-establishment firms. I calibrate my model to the US firm size distribution with respect to both the number of employees and the number of establishments, and use it to study distortions that are correlated with establishment size, or so-called size-dependent distortions to establishments, which are modeled as implicit output taxes. In contrast to previous studies, I find that size-dependent distortions are not more damaging to aggregate productivity and output than size-independent distortions, while the implicit tax revenue approximately summarizes the effects on aggregate output. I also use the model to compare the effects of size-dependent distortions to establishments and to firms, and find that they have different effects on firm size distribution, but have similar effects on aggregate output.
The second chapter studies the effects of product market frictions on firm size distribution and their implications for industrial pollution in China. Using a unique micro-level manufacturing census, I find that larger firms generate and emit less pollutants per unit of production. I also provide evidence suggesting the existence of size-dependent product market frictions that disproportionately affect larger firms. Using a model with firms heterogeneous in productivity and an endogenous choice of pollution treatment technology, I show that these frictions result in lower adoption rate of clean technology, higher pollution and lower aggregate output. I use the model to evaluate policies that eliminate size-dependent frictions, and those that increase environmental regulation. Quantitative results show that eliminating size-dependent frictions increases output by 30%. Meanwhile, the fraction of firms using clean technology increases by 27% and aggregate pollution decreases by 20%. In contrast, a regulatory policy which increases the clean technology adoption rate by the same 27%, has no effect on aggregate output and leads to only 10% reduction in aggregate pollution.
ContributorsXi, Xican (Author) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Thesis advisor) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
This dissertation contains a portfolio of papers in economics. The first paper, ``Vehicle Emissions Inspection Programs: Equality and Impact," presents the results of a study of the Arizona Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program. Using a unique data set, I find that the Arizona Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program is regressive in that it constrains the vehicle repair decisions of people on the low end of the income distribution more than those on the high end. I also find that the social cost of the program in Arizona is more than twice the social benefit, assuming a \$7 million value of statistical life. The second paper is ``Fiat Value in the Theory of Value." Because of advances in information processing technology, it is now technically feasible to have a currency-less monetary system. This paper explores one such system. In the model, prices are in units currency-less fiat money called fiat value, fiat value is a form of government debt, and the services of the stock of fiat value are a factor of production. In this system, the National accounts must be revised to account for money as a production factor, Friedman satiation is possible even with positive inflation, and various monetary policy regimes are explored. The third paper, ``Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Modern Paradigm of Money," uses the model developed in ``Fiat Value in the Theory of Value" to evaluate quantitative easing and interest on reserves policies as a response to liquidity shocks. I find that quantitative easing is an effective response to liquidity crises because it drives the marginal product of money to zero. When the marginal product of money is zero, the business sector does not have to pay to rent the services of money, a production factor that is free to create. I also show that a positive interest on reserve policy hampers the effectiveness of quantitative easing, and that quantitative easing does not cause a high inflation rate.
ContributorsWessel, Ryan J (Author) / Prescott, Edward C. (Thesis advisor) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Hobijn, Bart (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Family economics uses economic concepts such as productions and decision making to understand family behavior. Economists place emphasis on the rule of families on labor supply, human capital investment, and consumption. In a household, the members choose the optimal time allocations between working, housework and leisure, and money between consumption of different members and savings. One-Child policy and strong inter-generational connections cause unique family structure in China. Households of different generations provide income transfer and labor support to each other. Households consider these connections in their savings, labor supply, human capital investment, fertility and marriage decisions. Especially, strong intergenerational relationships in China are one cause of the high level of young female labor supply and high saving rate. I will investigate the rules of intergenerational relationships on household economic behavior.
Affirmative Action allocates college seats to a separate group. To evaluate the distribution effects of AA on discrete groups, we need to study household's strategic reactions on the rule of college seats allocation. The admission system of National College Entrance Examination in China is a type of AA. That distributes college seats by regions. I will use the rapid expansion of Chinese college enrollment as a natural experiment to check the households' reaction on AA and college expansion.
Media economics utilizes economic empirical and theoretical tools to figure out the social, cultural, and economic issues in media industries. The impact of online piracy on genuine products sales is under debate, because people cannot find representing proxies to evaluate piracy levels. I will use Chinese data to study the effects of online piracy on theater revenue.
Affirmative Action allocates college seats to a separate group. To evaluate the distribution effects of AA on discrete groups, we need to study household's strategic reactions on the rule of college seats allocation. The admission system of National College Entrance Examination in China is a type of AA. That distributes college seats by regions. I will use the rapid expansion of Chinese college enrollment as a natural experiment to check the households' reaction on AA and college expansion.
Media economics utilizes economic empirical and theoretical tools to figure out the social, cultural, and economic issues in media industries. The impact of online piracy on genuine products sales is under debate, because people cannot find representing proxies to evaluate piracy levels. I will use Chinese data to study the effects of online piracy on theater revenue.
ContributorsYue, Yang (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Kovrijnykh, Natalia (Committee member) / Veramendi, Gregory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on public good provision.
The first chapter develops a model of charity’s choice of fundraising method under two dimensions of asymmetric information, quality and purpose. The main implication is a separating equilibrium where higher-quality charities choose to distinguish themselves by using a traditional fundraising method, while lower-quality ones exploit a low-stakes, take-it- or leave-it, ``checkout’’ method. An empirical application reinforced that charities of lower quality are more likely to adopt the checkout method. Despite this, consumers still choose to give in the equilibrium, due to the small requested amount of checkout donations, which disincentivizes serious thinking. Although exploited by lower-quality charities, the checkout method, along with purpose uncertainty, has the potential to alleviate the free-riding problem associated with public good provision and is, therefore, welfare improving.
The second chapter studies why corporations donate to charities and
how their donations affect social welfare. I propose that firms make donations out of an image reason. In a model where two firms compete with each other, charitable donation could attract consumers and also signal firm overall social responsibility. I show that there exists an equilibrium where the high responsibility firm overdonates,
resulting in a donation level closer to the socially optimal
one. This leads to higher consumer welfare due to higher private good
consumption as well as higher public good consumption when overdonation is prominent. Overall social welfare is enhanced. Empirical results support social image as an incentive for firms to donate.
The third chapter examines people's marginal willingness to pay for a change in local public good provision. We use a fixed effects hedonic model with MSA level data to study the effect of crime on local housing price. We explore the 1990s crime drop and use abortion data in 1970s and 1980s as an instrumental variable based on \citet*{donohue2001impact}. One result we find is that a decrease in murder of 100 cases per 10,000 people increases housing price by 70\%. We further translate this result into a value of a statistical case of homicide, which is around 0.4 million in 1999 dollars.
The first chapter develops a model of charity’s choice of fundraising method under two dimensions of asymmetric information, quality and purpose. The main implication is a separating equilibrium where higher-quality charities choose to distinguish themselves by using a traditional fundraising method, while lower-quality ones exploit a low-stakes, take-it- or leave-it, ``checkout’’ method. An empirical application reinforced that charities of lower quality are more likely to adopt the checkout method. Despite this, consumers still choose to give in the equilibrium, due to the small requested amount of checkout donations, which disincentivizes serious thinking. Although exploited by lower-quality charities, the checkout method, along with purpose uncertainty, has the potential to alleviate the free-riding problem associated with public good provision and is, therefore, welfare improving.
The second chapter studies why corporations donate to charities and
how their donations affect social welfare. I propose that firms make donations out of an image reason. In a model where two firms compete with each other, charitable donation could attract consumers and also signal firm overall social responsibility. I show that there exists an equilibrium where the high responsibility firm overdonates,
resulting in a donation level closer to the socially optimal
one. This leads to higher consumer welfare due to higher private good
consumption as well as higher public good consumption when overdonation is prominent. Overall social welfare is enhanced. Empirical results support social image as an incentive for firms to donate.
The third chapter examines people's marginal willingness to pay for a change in local public good provision. We use a fixed effects hedonic model with MSA level data to study the effect of crime on local housing price. We explore the 1990s crime drop and use abortion data in 1970s and 1980s as an instrumental variable based on \citet*{donohue2001impact}. One result we find is that a decrease in murder of 100 cases per 10,000 people increases housing price by 70\%. We further translate this result into a value of a statistical case of homicide, which is around 0.4 million in 1999 dollars.
ContributorsTao, Ran (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Bishop, Kelly (Committee member) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one examines whether spending different amount of time outdoors on weekends and weekdays change the estimates of the impact of ground level ozone on the incidents of respiratory disease and asthma in California. This chapter contributes to the literature that focuses on the short term effect of air pollution on public health. Using the American Time Use Survey data, I find that on average people spend 50 minutes outdoors on weekends more than weekdays. Incorporating this difference in estimating the health impact of ozone changes the results significantly, especially for adults 20-64. The specification also allows me to find a precise estimate for each day of the week.
In chapter two I estimate the effect of exposure to ozone on skills of children aged 3 to 15 years. I use the Letter-Word (LW) test scores from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) as a measure of children's skills. Due to omitted variable bias, OLS estimate of ozone effect on children's skill is positive and imprecisely estimated. To mitigate the omitted variable bias I use the instrumental variables approach. This method accounts for endogeneity of pollution. The effect of ozone on children's skills becomes negative but only marginally significant.
In chapter three, I estimate a production function of skill formation for children 3 to 15 years old and simultaneously account for their childhood exposure to ozone. I find that a one standard deviation increase in ozone leads to a 0.07 standard deviation reduction in the LW test scores on average. The LW test score of 3 year olds drops by 0.10 standard deviation in response to one standard deviation increase in pollution levels, while for the 14 year olds this effect is only half as much, 0.04 standard deviation. I also find that households exhibit compensatory behavior and mitigate the negative effect of pollution by investing more on their children. I quantitatively demonstrate that certain policies, such as a reduction in pollution levels or income transfers to families, can remediate the negative impact of childhood exposure to pollution on adult outcomes.
In chapter two I estimate the effect of exposure to ozone on skills of children aged 3 to 15 years. I use the Letter-Word (LW) test scores from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) as a measure of children's skills. Due to omitted variable bias, OLS estimate of ozone effect on children's skill is positive and imprecisely estimated. To mitigate the omitted variable bias I use the instrumental variables approach. This method accounts for endogeneity of pollution. The effect of ozone on children's skills becomes negative but only marginally significant.
In chapter three, I estimate a production function of skill formation for children 3 to 15 years old and simultaneously account for their childhood exposure to ozone. I find that a one standard deviation increase in ozone leads to a 0.07 standard deviation reduction in the LW test scores on average. The LW test score of 3 year olds drops by 0.10 standard deviation in response to one standard deviation increase in pollution levels, while for the 14 year olds this effect is only half as much, 0.04 standard deviation. I also find that households exhibit compensatory behavior and mitigate the negative effect of pollution by investing more on their children. I quantitatively demonstrate that certain policies, such as a reduction in pollution levels or income transfers to families, can remediate the negative impact of childhood exposure to pollution on adult outcomes.
ContributorsVahedi, Sajad (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Wiswall, Matthew (Committee member) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays that broadly deal with the growth and development of economies across time and space. Chapter one is motivated by the fact that agricultural labor productivity is key for understanding aggregate cross-country income differences. One important proximate cause of low agricultural productivity is the low use of intermediate inputs, such as fertilizers, in developing countries. This paper argues that farmers in poor countries rationally choose to use fewer intermediate inputs because it limits their exposure to large uninsurable risks. I formalize the idea in a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, subsistence requirements, and idiosyncratic productivity shocks. Quantitatively, the model accounts for two-thirds of the difference in intermediate input shares between the richest and poorest countries. This has important implications for cross-country productivity. Relative to an identical model with no productivity shocks, the addition of agricultural shocks amplifies per capita GDP differences between the richest and poorest countries by nearly eighty percent. Chapter two deals with the changes in college completion in the United States over time. In particular, this paper develop a dynamic lifecycle model to study the increases in college completion and average IQ of college students in cohorts born from 1900 to 1972. I discipline the model by constructing historical data on real college costs from printed government reports covering this time period. The main finding is that that increases in college completion of 1900 to 1950 birth cohorts are due primarily to changes in college costs, which generate a large endogenous increase in college enrollment. Additionally, evidence is found that supports cohorts born after 1950 underpredicted sharp increases in the college earnings premium they eventually received. Combined with increasing college costs during this time period, this generates a slowdown in college completion, consistent with empirical evidence for cohorts born after 1950. Lastly, the rise in average college student IQ cannot be accounted for without a decrease in the variance of ability signals. This is attributed the increased precision of ability signals primarily to the rise of standardized testing. Chapter three again deals with cross-country income differences. In particular, it is concerned with the fact that cross-country income differences are primarily accounted for by total factor productivity (TFP) differences. Motivated by cross-country empirical evidence, this paper investigates the importance individuals who operate their own firms because of a lack of other job opportunities (need-based entrepreneurs). I develop a dynamic general equilibrium labor search model with with entrepreneurship to rationalize this misallocation across occupations and assess its role for understanding cross-country income differences. Developing countries are assumed to have tighter collateral constraints on entrepreneurs and lower unemployment benefits. Because these need-based entrepreneurs actually have a comparative advantage as workers, they operate smaller and less productive firms, lowering aggregate TFP in developing countries.
ContributorsDonovan, Kevin (Author) / Prescott, Edward C. (Thesis advisor) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Committee member) / Lagakos, David (Committee member) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which provide an interesting case study because they have very different earnings distributions and public education systems. An overlapping generations model is calibrated to match U.S. data, and tax and public education spending functions are estimated for each country. The benchmark exercise finds that taxes and public education spending account for about 15% of differences in earnings inequality and 10% of differences in intergenerational earnings persistence between the U.S. and Norway. Differences in private education spending and early childhood education investments are also shown to be quantitatively important. The second chapter develops a life-cycle model to study increases in college completion and average ability of college students born from 1900 to 1972. The model is disciplined with new historical data on real college costs from printed government surveys. I find that increases in college completion for 1900 to 1950 cohorts are due primarily to changes in college costs, which generate large endogenous increases in college enrollment. Additionally, I find strong evidence that post-1950 cohorts under-predicted large increases in the college earnings premium. Modifying the model to restrict perfect foresight of the education premia generates a slowdown in college completion consistent with empirical evidence for post-1950 cohorts. Lastly, I find that increased sorting of students by ability can be accounted for by increasingly precise ability signals over time. The third chapter assesses how structural transformation is affected by sectoral differences in labor-augmenting technological progress, capital intensity, and capital-labor substitutability. CES production functions are estimated for agriculture, manufacturing, and services on post-war U.S. data. I find that sectoral differences in labor-augmenting technological progress are the dominant force behind changes in sectoral labor and relative prices. Therefore, Cobb-Douglas production functions with labor-augmenting technological change capture the main technological forces behind post-war U.S. structural transformation.
ContributorsHerrington, Christopher (Author) / Prescott, Edward C. (Thesis advisor) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Committee member) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Microfinance is a term that refers to providing basic financial services to the poor; it has become a powerful tool for poverty alleviation. The idea is a relatively new one - modern microfinance began through experiments in the 1970's - but it has grown quickly and currently serves over 155 million clients worldwide. There are many studies that provide evidence of the positive impact of microfinance and the movement has an array of enthusiastic proponents. It is certainly not the only solution in the battle against poverty, however, and there are also studies that question the true depth of its impact. In looking at microfinance around the globe, one thing becomes clear: although it is an international phenomenon, microfinance has definitely found more success in some regions over others.
ContributorsEdgell, Bailey (Author) / Mendez, Jose (Thesis director) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Forbes, Stephen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2012-12
Description
This paper explores the history of sovereign debt default in developing economies and attempts to highlight the mistakes and accomplishments toward achieving debt sustainability. In the past century, developing economies have received considerable investment due to higher returns and a degree of disregard for the risks accompanying these investments. As the former Citibank chairman, Walter Wriston articulated, "Countries don't go bust" (This Time is Different, 51). Still, unexpected negative externalities have shattered this idea as the majority of developing economies follow a cyclical pattern of default. As coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, sovereign governments that fall into this continuous cycle have become known as serial defaulters. Most developed markets have not defaulted since World War II, thus escaping this persistent trap. Still, there have been developing economies that have been able to transition out of serial defaulting. These economies are able to leverage debt to compound growth without incurring the protracted consequences of a default. Although the cases are few, we argue that developing markets such as Chile, Mexico, Russia, and Uruguay have been able to escape this vicious cycle. Thus, our research indicates that collaborative debt restructurings coupled with long term economic policies are imperative to transitioning out of debt intolerance and into a sustainable debt position. Successful economies are able to leverage debt to create strong foundational growth rather than gambling with debt in the hopes of achieving rapid catch- up growth.
ContributorsPitt, Ryan (Co-author) / Martinez, Nick (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Silverman, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
Amid the fast-growing market of plant-based alternatives to conventional meat, there still lies uncertainty about consumers’ preferences for these new products. Through an online survey using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism, I test the effect that environmental information provision has on consumers’ immediate and long-term willingness- to-pay for the Whopper and Impossible Whopper from Burger King. Respondents were randomly assigned to either a control group or a treatment group, and both received information on taste in an attempt to isolate the effect of environmental information. Results show that certain groups respond to the information differently. Specifically, consumers who care about climate change are affected greatly by environmental in- formation suggesting these “climate advocates” are not fully informed despite the efforts of Impossible Foods. Vegetarians and highly educated individuals have relatively stronger preferences for the plant-based burger, in line with previous studies. Results also show a lasting effect of information on WTP, suggesting little need for repeated interventions.
ContributorsStreff, Adam (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis director) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05