Matching Items (246)
Description
It is well understood that decisions made under uncertainty differ from those made without risk in important and significant ways. Yet, there is very little research into how uncertainty manifests itself in the most ubiquitous of decision-making environments: Consumers' day-to-day decisions over where to shop, and what to buy for their daily grocery needs. Facing a choice between stores that either offer relatively stable "everyday low prices" (EDLP) or variable prices that reflect aggressive promotion strategies (HILO), consumers have to choose stores under price-uncertainty. I find that consumers' attitudes toward risk are critically important in determining store-choice, and that heterogeneity in risk attitudes explains the co-existence of EDLP and HILO stores - an equilibrium that was previously explained in somewhat unsatisfying ways. After choosing a store, consumers face another source of risk. While knowing the quality or taste of established brands, consumers have very little information about new products. Consequently, consumers tend to choose smaller package sizes for new products, which limits their exposure to the risk that the product does not meet their prior expectations. While the observation that consumers purchase small amounts of new products is not new, I show how this practice is fully consistent with optimal purchase decision-making by utility-maximizing consumers. I then use this insight to explain how manufacturers of consumer packaged goods (CPGs) respond to higher production costs. Because consumers base their purchase decisions in part on package size, manufacturers can use package size as a competitive tool in order to raise margins in the face of higher production costs. While others have argued that manufacturers reduce package sizes as a means of raising unit-prices (prices per unit of volume) in a hidden way, I show that the more important effect is a competitive one: Changes in package size can soften price competition, so manufacturers need not rely on fooling consumers in order to pass-through cost increases through changes in package size. The broader implications of consumer behavior under risk are dramatic. First, risk perceptions affect consumers' store choice and product choice patterns in ways that can be exploited by both retailers and manufacturers. Second, strategic considerations prevent manufacturers from manipulating package size in ways that seem designed to trick consumers. Third, many services are also offered as packages, and also involve uncertainty, so the effects identified here are likely to be pervasive throughout the consumer economy.
ContributorsYonezawa, Koichi (Author) / Richards, Timothy J. (Thesis advisor) / Grebitus, Carola (Committee member) / Park, Sungho (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Descriptionyour words
ContributorsWang, Dan, M.S (Author) / Grebitus, Carola (Thesis advisor) / Schroeter, Christiane (Committee member) / Manfredo, Mark (Committee member) / Hughner, Renee (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This dissertation applies the Bayesian approach as a method to improve the estimation efficiency of existing econometric tools. The first chapter suggests the Continuous Choice Bayesian (CCB) estimator which combines the Bayesian approach with the Continuous Choice (CC) estimator suggested by Imai and Keane (2004). Using simulation study, I provide two important findings. First, the CC estimator clearly has better finite sample properties compared to a frequently used Discrete Choice (DC) estimator. Second, the CCB estimator has better estimation efficiency when data size is relatively small and it still retains the advantage of the CC estimator over the DC estimator. The second chapter estimates baseball's managerial efficiency using a stochastic frontier function with the Bayesian approach. When I apply a stochastic frontier model to baseball panel data, the difficult part is that dataset often has a small number of periods, which result in large estimation variance. To overcome this problem, I apply the Bayesian approach to a stochastic frontier analysis. I compare the confidence interval of efficiencies from the Bayesian estimator with the classical frequentist confidence interval. Simulation results show that when I use the Bayesian approach, I achieve smaller estimation variance while I do not lose any reliability in a point estimation. Then, I apply the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis to answer some interesting questions in baseball.
ContributorsChoi, Kwang-shin (Author) / Ahn, Seung (Thesis advisor) / Mehra, Rajnish (Committee member) / Park, Sungho (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
As urban populations grow, water managers are becoming increasingly concerned about water scarcity. Water managers once relied on developing new sources of water supply to manage scarcity but economically feasible sources of unclaimed water are now rare, leading to an increased interest in demand side management. Water managers in Las Vegas, Nevada have developed innovative demand side management strategies due to the cities rapid urbanization and limited water supply. Three questions are addressed. First, in the developed areas of the Las Vegas Valley Water District service areas, how did vegetation area change? To quantify changes in vegetation area, the Matched Filter Vegetation Index (MFVI) is developed from Mixture Tuned Match Filtering estimates of vegetation area calibrated against vegetation area estimates from high-resolution aerial photography. In the established city core, there was a small but significant decline in vegetation area. Second, how much of the observed decline in per capita consumption can be explained by Las Vegas land cover and physical infrastructure change that resulted from extensive new construction and new use of water conserving technology, and how much can be attributed to water conservation policy choices? A regression analysis is performed, followed by an analysis of three counter-factual scenarios to decompose reductions in household water into its constituent parts. The largest citywide drivers of change in water consumption were increased water efficiency associated with new construction and rapid population growth. In the established urban core, the most significant driver was declining vegetation area. Third, water savings generated by a conservation program that provides incentives for homeowners to convert grass into desert landscaping are estimated. In the city core, 82 gallons of water are saved in June for each square meter of landscape converted in the first year after conversion, but the savings attenuate to 33 gallons per meter converted as the landscape ages. Voluntary landscape conversion programs can generate substantial water savings. The most significant result is that the most effective way to ensure long term, sustainable reductions in water consumption in a growing city without changing water prices is to support the construction of water efficient infrastructure.
ContributorsBrelsford, Christina M (Author) / Abbott, Joshua K (Thesis advisor) / York, Abigail M (Thesis advisor) / Hanemann, W. Michael (Committee member) / McPherson, Timothy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Research literature were reviewed regarding the land-use economic theory of bid-rent curves and the modern emergence of polycentric cities. Two independent Geographic Information System (GIS) analyses were completed to test the hypothesis that bid-rent methodology could be used to tease out trends in residential locations, and hence contribute to present-day urban planning efforts. Specifically, these analyses sought to address the relationships between place of work and place of residence in urban areas. A generalizable set of benchmarks for identifying urban employment centers were established for 10 study cities in the United States, and bid-rent curves were calculated under separate monocentric assumptions and polycentric assumptions. The results presented wide variations in real bid-rent curves that a) overall deviated dramatically from the hypothetical distribution of rent, and b) spoke to the unique residential patterns in individual U.S. cities. The implications of these variations were discussed with regard to equitable housing for marginalized groups and access to centers of employment.
ContributorsBochnovic, Michael Andrew (Author) / Mack, Elizabeth (Thesis advisor) / Pfeiffer, Deirdre (Committee member) / Rey, Sergio J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This thesis focuses on developing an integrated transmission and distribution framework that couples the two sub-systems together with due consideration to conventional demand flexibility. The proposed framework ensures accurate representation of the system resources and the network conditions when modeling the distribution system in the transmission OPF and vice-versa. It is further used to develop an accurate pricing mechanism (Distribution-based Location Marginal Pricing), which is reflective of the moment-to-moment costs of generating and delivering electrical energy, for the distribution system. By accurately modeling the two sub-systems, we can improve the economic efficiency and the system reliability, as the price sensitive resources can be controlled to behave in a way that benefits the power system as a whole.
ContributorsSinghal, Nikita G (Author) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Tylavsky, Daniel J (Committee member) / Sankar, Lalitha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The Chinese capital market is characterized by high segmentation due to governmental regulations. In this thesis I investigate both the causes and consequences of this market segmentations. Specifically, I address the following questions: (1) to which degree this capital market segmentation is caused by the fragmented regulations in China, (2) what are the key characteristics of this market segmentation, and (3) what are the impacts of this market segmentation on capital costs and resources allocations. Answers to these questions can have important implications for Chinese policy makers to improve capital market regulatory coordination and efficiency. I organize this thesis as follows. First, I define the concepts of capital market segmentation and fragmented regulation based on literature reviews and theoretical analysis. Next, on the basis of existing theories and methods in finance and economics, I select a number of indicators to systematically measure the degree of regulatory segmentation in China’s capital market. I then develop an econometric model of capital market frontier efficiency analysis to calculate and analyze China’s capital market segmentation and regulatory fragmentation. Lastly, I use the production function analysis technique and the even study method to examine the impacts of fragmented regulatory segmentation on the connections and price distortions in the equity, debt, and insurance markets. Findings of this thesis enhance the understanding of how institutional forces such as governmental regulations influence the function and efficiency of the capital markets.
ContributorsJia, Shaojun (Author) / Hwang, Yuhchang (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Hong (Committee member) / Wahal, Sunil (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
With the projected population growth, the need to produce higher agricultural yield to meet projected demand is hindered by water scarcity. Out of many the approaches that could be implemented to meet the water gap, intensification of agriculture through adoption of advanced agricultural irrigation techniques is the focus for this research. Current high water consumption by agricultural sector in Arizona is due to historical dominance in the state economy and established water rights. Efficiency gained in agricultural water use in Arizona has the most potential to reduce the overall water consumption. This research studies the agricultural sector and water management of several counties in Arizona (Maricopa, Pinal, and Yuma). Several research approaches are employed: modeling of agricultural technology adoption using replicator dynamics, interview with water managers and farmers, and Arizona water management law and history review. Using systems thinking, the components of the local farming environment are documented through socio-ecological system/robustness lenses. The replicator dynamics model is employed to evaluate possible conditions in which water efficient agricultural irrigation systems proliferate. The evaluation of conditions that promote the shift towards advanced irrigation technology is conducted through a combination of literature review, interview data, and model analysis. Systematic shift from the currently dominant flood irrigation toward a more water efficient irrigation technologies could be attributed to the followings: the increase in advanced irrigation technology yield efficiency; the reduction of advanced irrigation technology implementation and maintenance cost; the change in growing higher value crop; and the change in growing/harvesting time where there is less competition from other states. Insights learned will further the knowledge useful for this arid state's agricultural policy decision making that will both adhere to the water management goals and meet the projected food production and demand gap.
ContributorsBudiyanto, Yoshi (Author) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Karen (Committee member) / Abbott, Joshua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This dissertation focuses on democracies governed by a Parliament. In such democracies, the executive branch consists of a subset of parties in the Parliament, called the Government. A key feature is that the Government is only indirectly determined by the voters' electoral decisions. This dissertation address how parliamentary characteristics and institutions influence the composition of the Government and government outcomes. The composition of the Government reflects the size and ideological make-up of the Government. Government outcomes reflect the length the Government survives and the policy consequences of the Government. The literature focuses on the former criterion. The view is that, in parliamentary democracies, longer Government duration should be associated with stability and better policies. The latter is important from the perspective of directly evaluating whether Governments make good or bad decisions from the perspective of voters. The first chapter of this dissertation develop a model of the government formation process, where parties care about and bargain over both policy and office benefits. The model generate predictions that matches important features of the data. The second chapter uses data from western European parliamentary democracies to estimate the parameters of the model in chapter one. The estimation results suggest that coalitions care about both ideology and office benefits, but more about office benefits. The third chapter studies which (existing) institutional environments lead to `good' government outcomes. The results have a number of important implications for constitutional design.
ContributorsHu, Lin, Ph.D (Author) / Hu, Lin (Thesis advisor) / Friedenberg, Amanda (Committee member) / Manelli, Alejandro (Committee member) / Chade, Hector (Committee member) / Silverman, Dan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Urban scaling analysis has introduced a new scientific paradigm to the study of cities. With it, the notions of size, heterogeneity and structure have taken a leading role. These notions are assumed to be behind the causes for why cities differ from one another, sometimes wildly. However, the mechanisms by which size, heterogeneity and structure shape the general statistical patterns that describe urban economic output are still unclear. Given the rapid rate of urbanization around the globe, we need precise and formal mathematical understandings of these matters. In this context, I perform in this dissertation probabilistic, distributional and computational explorations of (i) how the broadness, or narrowness, of the distribution of individual productivities within cities determines what and how we measure urban systemic output, (ii) how urban scaling may be expressed as a statistical statement when urban metrics display strong stochasticity, (iii) how the processes of aggregation constrain the variability of total urban output, and (iv) how the structure of urban skills diversification within cities induces a multiplicative process in the production of urban output.
ContributorsGómez-Liévano, Andrés (Author) / Lobo, Jose (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Bettencourt, Luis M. A. (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014