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Description
This paper explores the history of sovereign debt default in developing economies and attempts to highlight the mistakes and accomplishments toward achieving debt sustainability. In the past century, developing economies have received considerable investment due to higher returns and a degree of disregard for the risks accompanying these investments. As the former Citibank chairman, Walter Wriston articulated, "Countries don't go bust" (This Time is Different, 51). Still, unexpected negative externalities have shattered this idea as the majority of developing economies follow a cyclical pattern of default. As coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, sovereign governments that fall into this continuous cycle have become known as serial defaulters. Most developed markets have not defaulted since World War II, thus escaping this persistent trap. Still, there have been developing economies that have been able to transition out of serial defaulting. These economies are able to leverage debt to compound growth without incurring the protracted consequences of a default. Although the cases are few, we argue that developing markets such as Chile, Mexico, Russia, and Uruguay have been able to escape this vicious cycle. Thus, our research indicates that collaborative debt restructurings coupled with long term economic policies are imperative to transitioning out of debt intolerance and into a sustainable debt position. Successful economies are able to leverage debt to create strong foundational growth rather than gambling with debt in the hopes of achieving rapid catch- up growth.
ContributorsPitt, Ryan (Co-author) / Martinez, Nick (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Silverman, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
A growing number of jobs in the US require a college degree or technical education, and the wage difference between jobs requiring a high school diploma and a college education has increased to over $17,000 per year. Enrollment levels in postsecondary education have been rising for at least the past decade, and this paper attempts to tease out how much of the increasing enrollment is due to changes in the demand by companies for workers. A Bartik Instrument, which is a measure of local area labor demand, for each county in the US was constructed from 2007 to 2014, and using multivariate linear regression the effect of changing labor demand on local postsecondary education enrollment rates was examined. A small positive effect was found, but the effect size in relation to the total change in enrollment levels was diminutive. From the start to the end of the recession (2007 to 2010), Bartik Instrument calculated unemployment increased from 5.3% nationally to 8.2%. This level of labor demand contraction would lead to a 0.42% increase in enrollment between 2008 and 2011. The true enrollment increase over this period was 7.6%, so the model calculated 5.5% of the enrollment increase was based on the changes in labor demand.
ContributorsHerder, Daniel Steven (Author) / Dillon, Eleanor (Thesis director) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This paper explores how marginalist economics defines and inevitably constrains Victorian sensation fiction's content and composition. I argue that economic intuition implies that sensationalist heroes and antagonists, writers and readers all pursued a fundamental, "rational" aim: the attainment of pleasure. So although "sensationalism" took on connotations of moral impropriety in the Victorian age, sensation fiction primarily involves experiences of pain on the page that excite the reader's pleasure. As such, sensationalism as a whole can be seen as a conformist product, one which mirrors the effects of all commodities on the market, rather than as a rebellious one. Indeed, contrary to modern and contemporary critics' assumptions, sensation fiction may not be as scandalous as it seems.
ContributorsFischer, Brett Andrew (Author) / Bivona, Daniel (Thesis director) / Looser, Devoney (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
For many years, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, like many other unindustrialized nations, followed the internally-oriented import substitution policies developed by theoreticians like Raul Prebisch. These measures were meant to force nations to develop their industrial capabilities in isolation from the rest of the world. However, these policies did little to improve the economy of many emerging countries. It was not until Asian countries switched to externally-oriented strategies that progress was made in their developing economies. In the early 1980s, a "Washington Consensus" was practiced that included a trade provision for the opening of emerging markets. Since then, many Sub-Saharan African nations have implemented policies that have opened up their markets to the rest of the world. However, most of these countries have not realized the benefits typically ascribed to open trade, causing some economists to doubt the economic growth benefits of trade liberalization. This thesis examines the connection between trade liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa to review the consequences of recent trade reforms on the region's development and to identify some of the factors which contributed to individual countries successfully, or unsuccessfully, implementing trade liberalizing policies. It finds that the relationship between economic growth and trade liberalization is not as important as other growth factors and that there are multiple paths toward economic development.
ContributorsDussik, Jonathan Abraham DeBlock (Author) / DeSerpa, Allan (Thesis director) / Hill, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
In a season that spans 162 games over the course of six months, MLB teams that travel more face additional fatigue and jetlag from travel. This factor could negatively impact them on the field. To explore this issue, I tested the significance of different variables by creating four models, which compared travel with a team's ability to win games as well as its ability to hit home runs. Based on these models, it appears as though changing time zones does not affect the outcome of games. However, these results did indicate that visiting teams with a greater time zone advantage over their opponent are less likely to hit a home run in a game.
ContributorsAronson, Sean Matthew (Author) / MacFie, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
An integral part of the financial system, the evolutionary history of commercial banking remains largely uncharted and is often grouped into banking development as a whole. Previous research on banking has primarily relied on economic analysis or has placed banking in a larger social context. This work aims to bridge the two by classifying commercial banking growth into four cycles of expansion, application, and decline. Drawing from historical accounts and growth cycle theory, this framework for classification is developed to better synthesize its progress and the fundamental innovations that changed the banking system. Beginning in 1150 with the foundation for deposit banking, the next three cycles of 1500, 1750, and 1933 mark periods of great innovation and a push toward the regulatory environment, technology, and globalization that define modern commercial banking. Paralleling the economic, financial, and political development of the Western World, its evolution is guided by three themes: the increased accumulation and flow of capital, regulation, and market expansion.
ContributorsSinger, Andrea Cayli (Author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Hoffmeister, Ron (Committee member) / Brooks, Dan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The situation in the Euro-Zone is fluctuating daily with various efforts to curb the contagion of certain Euro-Zone member states. In the effort to focus on the greater macroeconomic and social impact of the Euro-Zone, this paper concentrates on the history of the Euro-Zone, the causes of the crisis, outlines potential solutions, discusses individual perspectives on the issue, and describes a prediction for the future of the Euro-Zone.
ContributorsTom, Bryan (Co-author) / Smith, Kelley (Co-author) / Mendez, Jose (Thesis director) / Datta, Manjira (Committee member) / Roberts, Nancy (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2013-05
DescriptionIn this study, the first two novels of Margaret Atwood's MaddAddam Trilogy are discussed in their global context as social commentary on the current system of global economics. The study focuses on the novels' depiction of the commodification of women's bodies and the bodies of animals as consumable products.
ContributorsManning, Devan Marie (Author) / Sadowski-Smith, Claudia (Thesis director) / Voaden, Rosalynn (Committee member) / Mallot, Edward (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
With aggregate background knowledge and best methodology practices from the literature review, this exploratory study seeks to further gather and advance knowledge on the subject of birthrate trends with respect to the economic conditions affecting the decisions to reproduce. The scope of the study particularly investigates the possible effects of the 2008 downturn of the economy and the concurring home mortgage crisis on birthrates in Arizona.
ContributorsGuseynov, Ruslan Saidovich (Author) / Fey, Richard (Thesis director) / Reesing, Amy (Committee member) / Hayford, Sarah (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / T. Denny Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Through collection of survey data on the characteristics of college debaters, disparities in participation and success for women and racial and ethnic minorities are measured. This study then uses econometric tools to assess whether there is an in-group judging bias in college debate that systematically disadvantages female and minority participants. Debate is used as a testing ground for competing economic theories of taste-based and statistical discrimination, applied to a higher education context. The study finds persistent disparities in participation and success for female participants. Judges are more likely to vote for debaters who share their gender. There is also a significant disparity in the participation of racial and ethnic minority debaters and judges, as well as female judges.
ContributorsVered, Michelle Nicole (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis director) / Symonds, Adam (Committee member) / Dillon, Eleanor (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2014-12