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- Creators: Vereshchagina, Galina
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Description
This dissertation studies two wide ranging phenomena and their socio-economic impacts: urban divergence in terms of geographical skill sorting and fast rising housing prices. The first essay explores the empirical pattern as well as the driving forces behind the American cities’ diverging path over the past forty years. Compared to the rest of the U.S. cities, the top 20 largest cities have been growing faster in several aspects, such as city-average wage, housing price, and measured innovation intensity (e.g., patents, venture capital). In addition, this geographical divergence has contributed substantially to the rising inequality in America. To explore the causes of this divergence, this paper constructs a spatial sorting model where entrepreneurs with different talents can freely move across cities. The key idea is that cities with advantages in innovation attract more productive entrepreneurs and more workers, thereby driving up wages and housing prices. Two things distinguish my models from others: 1. Large cities are having endogenous innovation advantage in equilibrium; 2. I can freely explore the driving forces behind the divergence, with an emphasis on how technology changes can reinforce the spatial sorting mechanism. Specifically, three types of technological changes have increased the benefits of skill clustering in innovative cities: general productivity increases; improvements in communications technologies; and declines in trade costs.
The second essay studies how heterogeneous households respond to the fast rising housing prices through their life-cycle behaviors. Chinese housing market has been undergoing a rapid booming period since 1998, causing the house prices increasing significantly. As a result, households endured severe financial burdens to buy homes at price-to-income ratios of around six. Along with the rising house prices, household savings rate has been increasing consistently since 1998. Can the rising house prices be an important factor to explain the increase in household saving rate? This paper develops a life cycle dynastic model with endogenous choice on housing, coresidence and intergenerational transfer, then quantitatively analyze the effect of housing price on household saving. It shows that housing is an important motive for saving, and it accounts for about 35% of the increase in household savings rate. The housing situation affects households’ saving behavior through three channels. First, households are financially constrained due to the down payment requirement and they choose to limit their consumption in order to buy houses. Second, young adults live in their parents’ houses for a long time and save more intensively, since they get to pay less for the housing expenses under coresidence. Thirdly, older parents make large sum of intergeneration transfer in aid of the children’s housing purchase, indicating the housing affordability issue also has influence on old parents’ saving decisions.
The second essay studies how heterogeneous households respond to the fast rising housing prices through their life-cycle behaviors. Chinese housing market has been undergoing a rapid booming period since 1998, causing the house prices increasing significantly. As a result, households endured severe financial burdens to buy homes at price-to-income ratios of around six. Along with the rising house prices, household savings rate has been increasing consistently since 1998. Can the rising house prices be an important factor to explain the increase in household saving rate? This paper develops a life cycle dynastic model with endogenous choice on housing, coresidence and intergenerational transfer, then quantitatively analyze the effect of housing price on household saving. It shows that housing is an important motive for saving, and it accounts for about 35% of the increase in household savings rate. The housing situation affects households’ saving behavior through three channels. First, households are financially constrained due to the down payment requirement and they choose to limit their consumption in order to buy houses. Second, young adults live in their parents’ houses for a long time and save more intensively, since they get to pay less for the housing expenses under coresidence. Thirdly, older parents make large sum of intergeneration transfer in aid of the children’s housing purchase, indicating the housing affordability issue also has influence on old parents’ saving decisions.
ContributorsSun, Minjuan (Author) / Schoellman, Todd (Thesis advisor) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation consists in two chapters. In the first chapter I collected and digitized historical tax records from the Spanish colonial regime in Ecuador to estimate the long-run effects of a forced labor institution called concertaje on today’s economic performance. This institution allowed landlords to retain indigenous workers due to unpaid debts, and forced them to work as peasants in rural estates known as haciendas. In order to identify the causal effects of concertaje, I exploit variation in its intensity caused by differences in labor requirements from the crops a region could grow. I first report that an increase in 10 percentage points in concertaje rates is associated with a 6 percentage points increase in contemporary poverty. I then explore several channels of persistence. Districts with higher concertaje rates have been historically associated with higher illiteracy rates, lower school enrollment, and populations with fewer years of education. I also report that concertaje is associated with a higher fraction of people working nowadays in the agricultural sector.
In the second chapter I use administrative data on the ownership, management, and taxes for the universe of all firms in Ecuador to study the role of family management in firm dynamics and its implications for aggregate productivity. A novel finding I document is that family-managed firms grow half as quickly as externally-managed firms. This growth differential implies that family-managed firms account for half of employment, despite comprising 80% of firms. I construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics that is consistent with these facts. Entrepreneurs choose whether to utilize family members as managers or hire external managers. External managers allow firms to scale up production, but their efficiency is a affected due to contractual frictions. Changes in the contractual environment that lead to a drop in the presence of family-managed firms by half could increase output on the order of 6%, as firms that abandon family management enjoy rapid growth.
In the second chapter I use administrative data on the ownership, management, and taxes for the universe of all firms in Ecuador to study the role of family management in firm dynamics and its implications for aggregate productivity. A novel finding I document is that family-managed firms grow half as quickly as externally-managed firms. This growth differential implies that family-managed firms account for half of employment, despite comprising 80% of firms. I construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics that is consistent with these facts. Entrepreneurs choose whether to utilize family members as managers or hire external managers. External managers allow firms to scale up production, but their efficiency is a affected due to contractual frictions. Changes in the contractual environment that lead to a drop in the presence of family-managed firms by half could increase output on the order of 6%, as firms that abandon family management enjoy rapid growth.
ContributorsRivadeneira Acosta, Alex Pierre (Author) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Committee member) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part is about understanding the mechanism behind female labor supply movement over economic development. Female labor force participation follows a U-shape pattern over per capita GDP cross nationally as well as within some countries. This paper questions if this pattern can be explained through sectoral, uneven technological movements both at market and at home. For that I develop a general equilibrium model with married couples and home production. I defined multiple sectors both at home and in the market. And by feeding the model with uneven technological growth, I observe how participation rate moves over development. My results indicate that a decrease in labor supply is mainly due to structural transformation. Meaning, a higher technology in a large sector causes prices to go up in that sector relative to other. Hence, labor allocated to this sector will decrease. Assuming this sector has a big market share, it will decrease the labor supply. Also, I found that the increase in female labor supply is mostly because of movement from home to market as a result of a higher technological growth in the market. The second part is about developing a methodology to verify and compute the existence of recursive equilibrium in dynamic economies with capital accumulation and elastic labor supply. The method I develop stems from the multi-step monotone mapping methodology which is based on monotone operators and solving a fixed point problem at each step. The methodology is not only useful for verifying and computing the recursive competitive equilibrium, but also useful for obtaining intra- and inter-temporal comparative dynamics. I provide robust intra-temporal comparative statics about how consumption and leisure decisions change in response to changes in capital stock and inverse marginal utility of consumption. I also provide inter-temporal equilibrium comparative dynamics about how recursive equilibrium consumption and investment respond to changes in discount factor and production externality. Different from intra-temporal comparative statics, these are not robust as they only apply to a subclass of equilibrium where investment level is monotone.
ContributorsDalkiran, Dilsat Tugba (Author) / Reffett, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Datta, Manjira (Committee member) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
A growing number of jobs in the US require a college degree or technical education, and the wage difference between jobs requiring a high school diploma and a college education has increased to over $17,000 per year. Enrollment levels in postsecondary education have been rising for at least the past decade, and this paper attempts to tease out how much of the increasing enrollment is due to changes in the demand by companies for workers. A Bartik Instrument, which is a measure of local area labor demand, for each county in the US was constructed from 2007 to 2014, and using multivariate linear regression the effect of changing labor demand on local postsecondary education enrollment rates was examined. A small positive effect was found, but the effect size in relation to the total change in enrollment levels was diminutive. From the start to the end of the recession (2007 to 2010), Bartik Instrument calculated unemployment increased from 5.3% nationally to 8.2%. This level of labor demand contraction would lead to a 0.42% increase in enrollment between 2008 and 2011. The true enrollment increase over this period was 7.6%, so the model calculated 5.5% of the enrollment increase was based on the changes in labor demand.
ContributorsHerder, Daniel Steven (Author) / Dillon, Eleanor (Thesis director) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The current model of revenue generation for some free to play video games is preventing the companies controlling them from growing, but with a few changes in approach these issues could be alleviated. A new style of video games, called a MOBA (Massive Online Battle Arena) has emerged in the past few years bringing with it a new style of generating wealth. Contrary to past gaming models, where users must either purchase the game outright, view advertisements, or purchase items to gain a competitive advantage, MOBAs require no payment of any kind. These are free to play computer games that provides users with all the tools necessary to compete with anyone free of charge; no advantages can be purchased in this game. This leaves the only way for users to provide money to the company through optional purchases of purely aesthetic items, only to be purchased if the buyer wishes to see their character in a different set of attire. The genre’s best in show—called League of Legends, or LOL—has spearheaded this method of revenue-generation. Fortunately for LOL, its level of popularity has reached levels never seen in video games: the world championships had more viewers than game 7 of the NBA Finals (Dorsey). The player base alone is enough to keep the company afloat currently, but the fact that they only convert 3.75% of the players into revenue is alarming. Each player brings the company an average of $1.32, or 30% of what some other free to play games earn per user (Comparing MMO). It is this low per player income that has caused Riot Games, the developer of LOL, to state that their e-sports division is not currently profitable. To resolve this issue, LOL must take on a more aggressive marketing plan. Advertisements for the NBA Finals cost $460,000 for 30 seconds, and LOL should aim for ads in this range (Lombardo). With an average of 3 million people logged on at any time, 90% of the players being male and 85% being between the ages of 16 and 30, advertising via this game would appeal to many companies, making a deal easy to strike (LOL infographic 2012). The idea also appeals to players: 81% of players surveyed said that an advertisement on the client that allows for the option to place an order would improve or not impact their experience. Moving forward with this, the gaming client would be updated to contain both an option to order pizza and an advertisement for Mountain Dew. This type of advertising was determined based on community responses through a sequence of survey questions. These small adjustments to the game would allow LOL to generate enough income for Riot Games to expand into other areas of the e-sports industry.
ContributorsSeip, Patrick (Co-author) / Zhao, BoNing (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The NBA operates under a unique system with both forms of the salary cap. The league has a team salary cap that sets a limit that teams can spend on their entire roster. The NBA has a soft cap and a luxury tax system, meaning if teams spend over a determined amount, they are taxed for the salaries in excess. The league also has a player salary cap. The 1999 NBA collective bargaining agreement first introduced the individual player salary cap in the league. This cap sets a limit on what the best players can earn, otherwise known as the maximum contract. In an economic system with a soft team cap, the introduction of the player salary cap has important implications. The stated outcome of such a salary cap is to improve competitive balance and better distribute star players throughout the league. This study evaluated the 1990-2015 regular seasons to measure the impact of the player salary cap on competitive balance, the distribution of team payrolls, and the dispersion of star players. In accordance with the Rottenberg's invariance hypothesis, the player salary cap has hurt the players and benefited the owners by redistributing income from one party to the other, without impacting the distribution of talent in the league. The rule change has not affected competitive balance, while team payrolls have converged and star players have become more dispersed throughout the league. These changes hurt the league overall, preventing the maximization of revenues. Despite this inefficiency, the chance of the league moving to eliminate the player salary cap is low.
ContributorsWelu, Brian Andrew (Author) / Marburger, Daniel (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
The returns to education in Haiti are high. Nevertheless, few individuals receive/enjoy them because education is privately provided, costly, and the poor cannot afford it. The poor receive too little education and would benefit from investing more into their education however, they cannot do so because they are unable to borrow, which can be attributed to the poorly functioning credit markets. Therefore, there is a need for government policy intervention aimed at providing more education to the poor. The purpose of this study is to propose and evaluate economic policies that might help the poor obtain more education. In particular, I analyze a taxation policy that redistributes income from the rich to the poor by implementing a tax transfer program. I also analyze a tax policy that taxes only the rich and used the tax revenue generated to fund public education for all children age 5-14. In the first policy, a tax rate of 3.17% on the rich and transfer to the poor increases the income of the poor parents by $81.74 USD a year and the income of the poor child by $61.78 USD while decreasing the income of the rich child by $61.78 USD. The second policy varies the amount parents and the government spend on a children's education and analyzes the effects on a children's income. I find that a fairly modest tax on the rich does a good job at generating more education for the poor, increasing the income of the poor children, and therefore alleviating the poverty of the poor. For example, a 5.21% tax on the top 20% of the rich raises enough money to provide six years of free public education for all children. As a result, the child's income in the poorest 20% of families raises from $539.30 to $887.14. These findings suggest that public education is likely an important channel through which the extent of poverty in Haiti can be reduced.
ContributorsWard, Alisha Elizabeth (Author) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
There is growing public concern about the implications of climate change for natural processes, such as the melting of ice at the poles, but less clear are the implications for food production. Famine and conflict have a long and complicated history, made increasingly complicated by the intricate global food system. In this paper, I explore the effect of increasingly severe El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles on conflict in an effort to determine how abnormal climate patterns affect food security and, indirectly, conflict. I use a non-linear probit model to analyze the relationship between several binary conflict variables and food supply.
ContributorsWoner, Hannah Marie (Author) / Schoellman, Todd (Thesis director) / Ripley, Charles (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
This dissertation consists of two essays that deal with the development of open developing economies. These economies have experienced drastic divergence in terms of economic growth from the 1970s through the 2010s. One important feature of those countries that have lagged behind is their failure to build up their domestic innovation capacity.
Abstract The first chapter discusses the policies that may have an impact on the long-run innovation capacity of developing economies. The existing literature emphasizes that the backward linkage of foreign-owned firms is a key to determining whether FDI is beneficial or detrimental to a domestic economy. However, little empirical evidence has shown which aspects of FDI policies lead to a strong backward linkage between foreign-owned and domestic firms. This paper focuses on the foreign ownership structure of these foreign-owned firms. I show that joint ventures (i.e, firms with 1%-99% foreign share) have stronger backward linkages than MNC affiliates (i.e, firms with 100% foreign share) with domestic firms. I also find that the differences in backward linkages are strong enough to translate into a positive correlation between domestic innovation and the density of joint ventures and a negative correlation between domestic innovation and the density of MNC affiliates. Finally, I find that the channel through which foreign ownership structure affects domestic innovation raises innovation TFP in domestic firms. My results suggest that policies that affect the foreign ownership structure of foreign-owned firms could have a persistent effect on domestic innovation because they shift the comparative advantage of an developing economy towards the innovation sector in the long run.
Abstract The second chapter provides a unified theory to study what causes the divergence in economic growth of developing economies and how the innovation sector emerges in the developing countries. I show that open developing economies become trapped at the middle-income level because they tend not to specialize in sectors that generate spillover or factor accumulation (the innovation sector). Using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) model, I show that the fast growth of developing economies tends to end before they can fully catch up with the developed world, and the innovation sector will not operate in the developing countries. However, the successful growth stories of Korea and Taiwan challenge this view. In order to explore the economic miracle that happened in Korea and Taiwan, I generalize a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) model by introducing technology adoption and explore how it generates spillovers to domestic innovation. I show that countries with policies that encourage technology adoption will benefit most from FDI: in addition to the fact that foreign technology raises productivity in the host country, the demand for skilled labor to adopt these technologies raises the education level in equilibrium, which benefits domestic innovation and leads to catch-up in the long run.
Abstract The first chapter discusses the policies that may have an impact on the long-run innovation capacity of developing economies. The existing literature emphasizes that the backward linkage of foreign-owned firms is a key to determining whether FDI is beneficial or detrimental to a domestic economy. However, little empirical evidence has shown which aspects of FDI policies lead to a strong backward linkage between foreign-owned and domestic firms. This paper focuses on the foreign ownership structure of these foreign-owned firms. I show that joint ventures (i.e, firms with 1%-99% foreign share) have stronger backward linkages than MNC affiliates (i.e, firms with 100% foreign share) with domestic firms. I also find that the differences in backward linkages are strong enough to translate into a positive correlation between domestic innovation and the density of joint ventures and a negative correlation between domestic innovation and the density of MNC affiliates. Finally, I find that the channel through which foreign ownership structure affects domestic innovation raises innovation TFP in domestic firms. My results suggest that policies that affect the foreign ownership structure of foreign-owned firms could have a persistent effect on domestic innovation because they shift the comparative advantage of an developing economy towards the innovation sector in the long run.
Abstract The second chapter provides a unified theory to study what causes the divergence in economic growth of developing economies and how the innovation sector emerges in the developing countries. I show that open developing economies become trapped at the middle-income level because they tend not to specialize in sectors that generate spillover or factor accumulation (the innovation sector). Using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) model, I show that the fast growth of developing economies tends to end before they can fully catch up with the developed world, and the innovation sector will not operate in the developing countries. However, the successful growth stories of Korea and Taiwan challenge this view. In order to explore the economic miracle that happened in Korea and Taiwan, I generalize a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) model by introducing technology adoption and explore how it generates spillovers to domestic innovation. I show that countries with policies that encourage technology adoption will benefit most from FDI: in addition to the fact that foreign technology raises productivity in the host country, the demand for skilled labor to adopt these technologies raises the education level in equilibrium, which benefits domestic innovation and leads to catch-up in the long run.
ContributorsGe, Zhizhuang (Author) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis advisor) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This dissertation consists of two chapters. Chapter one studies distortionary effects of tax exemption of employer-sponsored health insurance (ESHI) premiums. First, I argue that, in the competitive labor market, tax deductibility of ESHI premiums generates an implicit labor cost subsidy to the employers sponsoring health insurance (HI) which distorts the allocation of labor across employers. Second, I quantify the extent of this misallocation measured as output loss in a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics extended to incorporate tax exemption of ESHI premiums and endogenous provision of HI by the employers. The calibrated model shows that elimination of tax exemption increases aggregate output by 1.73%. About two-thirds of this effect comes from removing the misallocation of labor across existing establishments, and the remaining one-third comes from the increase in the number of operating establishments. Third, I use the model to analyze how tax exemption interacts with the employer mandate of the Affordable Care Act imposing a tax on large employers not sponsoring HI. Quantitative results show that implementing the employer mandate when the tax exemption is present reduces output by 0.13%.
Chapter two studies macroeconomic implications of a higher cost of health services faced by the unemployed which arise because 1) workers lose access to ESHI when they leave their jobs and 2) the uninsured face inflated health care prices. First, I provide evidence suggesting that the cost of health services for the privately insured is about 50% lower than for the uninsured. Second, I quantify the effects of higher cost of health services for the unemployed in the Lucas and Prescott (1974) island model extended to allow the workers to pay an extra cost of health services contingent on their employment status. Calibration procedure uses the differences between costs of health services for the privately insured and uninsured inferred from the data as a gap between costs of health services for the employed and unemployed. Quantitative results show that equalizing these costs across workers increases labor productivity by 1.2% and unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. The increased unemployment dominates quantitatively leading to a decrease in aggregate output by 0.26%.
Chapter two studies macroeconomic implications of a higher cost of health services faced by the unemployed which arise because 1) workers lose access to ESHI when they leave their jobs and 2) the uninsured face inflated health care prices. First, I provide evidence suggesting that the cost of health services for the privately insured is about 50% lower than for the uninsured. Second, I quantify the effects of higher cost of health services for the unemployed in the Lucas and Prescott (1974) island model extended to allow the workers to pay an extra cost of health services contingent on their employment status. Calibration procedure uses the differences between costs of health services for the privately insured and uninsured inferred from the data as a gap between costs of health services for the employed and unemployed. Quantitative results show that equalizing these costs across workers increases labor productivity by 1.2% and unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. The increased unemployment dominates quantitatively leading to a decrease in aggregate output by 0.26%.
ContributorsKrukava, Nastassia (Author) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis advisor) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017