Matching Items (21)
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- All Subjects: Economics
- Creators: Kuminoff, Nicolai
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Description
This dissertation focuses on consequences of public policy on consumption responses.
Chapter 1 evaluates the effect of Thailand's car tax rebate scheme in 2012 on household consumption by examining aggregate and administrative data. Car sales doubled during the policy and dramatically declined afterwards while domestic household spending was sluggish following the policy, suggesting a substantial dampening effect of the policy on future household consumption.
Chapter 2 develops a formal model to evaluate Thai household consumption responses. A life-cycle model of consumption and saving is developed with features including uninsured income risks, liquidity constraints, durable goods with embedded adjustment costs and non-homothetic preference in durable goods. Adjustment costs and liquidity constraints are important frictions in the evaluation of the shorter-term responses to changes in relative prices, while non-homotheticity captures the income effect given that cars are luxury goods in the Thai economy context. Key parameters and the partial equilibrium responses, which are key inputs to inform the aggregate outcome of the policy, are estimated. The results show that the car-tax rebates had a sizable impact on slowing Thai household consumption following the policy due to high level of elasticity of intertemporal substitution among Thai households.
Chapter 3 examines the effect of public smoking bans in the EU countries. Using individual-level data, this chapter investigates whether nationwide smoke-free laws in Europe lead to higher smoking reduction and cessation rates among mature smokers. Exploiting the different timing in imposing smoking ban laws and using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that light smokers and heavy smokers were more likely to quit smoking after comprehensive bans were in place while there was no significant effect on average smokers. The results confirm that smoking bans, particularly when enforced more strictly and comprehensively, lead to higher smoking cessation rates even among mature smokers with well-established addiction.
Chapter 1 evaluates the effect of Thailand's car tax rebate scheme in 2012 on household consumption by examining aggregate and administrative data. Car sales doubled during the policy and dramatically declined afterwards while domestic household spending was sluggish following the policy, suggesting a substantial dampening effect of the policy on future household consumption.
Chapter 2 develops a formal model to evaluate Thai household consumption responses. A life-cycle model of consumption and saving is developed with features including uninsured income risks, liquidity constraints, durable goods with embedded adjustment costs and non-homothetic preference in durable goods. Adjustment costs and liquidity constraints are important frictions in the evaluation of the shorter-term responses to changes in relative prices, while non-homotheticity captures the income effect given that cars are luxury goods in the Thai economy context. Key parameters and the partial equilibrium responses, which are key inputs to inform the aggregate outcome of the policy, are estimated. The results show that the car-tax rebates had a sizable impact on slowing Thai household consumption following the policy due to high level of elasticity of intertemporal substitution among Thai households.
Chapter 3 examines the effect of public smoking bans in the EU countries. Using individual-level data, this chapter investigates whether nationwide smoke-free laws in Europe lead to higher smoking reduction and cessation rates among mature smokers. Exploiting the different timing in imposing smoking ban laws and using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that light smokers and heavy smokers were more likely to quit smoking after comprehensive bans were in place while there was no significant effect on average smokers. The results confirm that smoking bans, particularly when enforced more strictly and comprehensively, lead to higher smoking cessation rates even among mature smokers with well-established addiction.
ContributorsTawichsri, Tanisa (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This paper is intended to identify a correlation between the winning percentage of sports teams in the four major professional sports leagues in the United States and the GDP per capita of their respective cities. We initially compiled fifteen years of franchise performance along with economic data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to analyze this relationship. After converting the data into a language recognized by Stata, the regression tool we used, we ran multiple regressions to find relevant correlations based off of our inputs. This paper will show the value of the economic impact of strong or weak performance throughout various economic cycles through data analysis and conclusions drawn from the results of the regression analysis.
ContributorsAndl, Tyler (Co-author) / Shirk, Brandon (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit substance in the United States with over two million pounds seized annually and with a usage rate estimated at 19.8 million people in 2013 (SAMSHA, 2014). Currently there is a nationwide movement for the legalization of recreational marijuana via referendum at the state level. Three states and the District of Columbia have already adopted amendments legalizing marijuana and over a dozen more currently have pending ballots. This report explores what would be the impact of legalizing marijuana in Arizona through the examination of data from Colorado and other governmental sources. Using a benefit/cost analysis the data is used to determine what the effect the legalization of marijuana would have in Arizona. I next examined the moral arguments for legalization. Finally I propose a recommendation for how the issue of the legalization of recreational marijuana should be approached in Arizona.
ContributorsDiPietro, Samuel Miles (Author) / Kalika, Dale (Thesis director) / Lynk, Myles (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The relationship between the European Union and Britain has been long and contentious. It has been dominated by Britain's skepticism towards the EU and a hesitation to participate in an integrated Europe. This paper outlines the costs and benefits of Britain's membership in three areas: trade and foreign direct investment, financial contributions, and immigration. In addition to analyzing the effect of a British exit in these three areas, alternatives are also discussed.
ContributorsLeon, Monique Briana (Author) / Mendez, Jose (Thesis director) / Kenchington, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
On September 11, 1973, Augusto Pinochet became the leader of Chile after a violent coup d’état, which left the economy in shambles. The previous president and ruling party, Salvador Allende and the Popular Unity coalition respectively, were moving the country towards socialism and in doing so increased the government presence in the economy, nationalized copper and other industries, and redistributed agricultural land. Soon after nationalizing the copper industry, prices fell and the large expenditures being made by the government lead to a recession characterized by shrinking GDP, failing nationalized businesses, US economic sanctions, high inflation, and unfavorable exchange rates. Pinochet turned to the Chicago Boys, Chilean economists educated at the University of Chicago’s School of Economics by Milton Friedman, to formulate an economic plan that would reduce inflation as well as limiting government involvement in the economy. This paper will examine the neoliberal free market principals instituted by the Chicago Boys, the immediate and delayed effects in the Chilean government, and how these principals have been and can be utilized to provide stabilization and growth in other Latin American economies.
ContributorsJohnsen, Kaitlin (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Hobijn, Bart (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The main goal of this study was to understand the awareness of small business owners regarding occupational fraud, meaning fraud committed from within an organization. A survey/questionnaire was used to gather insight into the knowledge and perceptions of small business owners, while also obtaining information about the history of fraud and the internal controls within their business. Twenty-four owners of businesses with less than 100 employees participated in the study. The results suggest that small business owners overestimate their knowledge regarding internal controls and occupational fraud, while also underestimating the risk of fraud within their own business. In fact, 92% of participants were not at all familiar with the popular Internal Control \u2014 Integrated Framework published by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission. The results also show that small business owners tend to overestimate the protection provided by their currently implemented controls in regard to their risk of fraud. Overall, through continued knowledge of internal controls and occupational fraud, business owners can better protect their businesses from the risk of occupational fraud by increasing their awareness of fraud.
ContributorsDennis, Lauren Nicole (Author) / Orpurt, Steven (Thesis director) / Munshi, Perseus (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Agent Based modeling has been used in computer science to simulate complex phenomena. The introduction of Agent Based Models into the field of economics (Agent Based Computational Economics ACE) is not new, however work on making model environments simpler to design for individuals without a background in computer science or computer engineering is a constantly evolving topic. The issue is a trade off of how much is handled by the framework and how much control the modeler has, as well as what tools exist to allow the user to develop insights from the behavior of the model. The solutions looked at in this thesis are the construction of a simplified grammar for model construction, the design of an economic based library to assist in ACE modeling, and examples of how to construct interactive models.
ContributorsAnderson, Brandon David (Author) / Bazzi, Rida (Thesis director) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Roberts, Nancy (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Within this paper I summarize the key features, and results, of research conducted to support the development, design, and implementation of an internal control system at a startup small business. These efforts were conducted for an Honors Thesis/Creative Project for Barrett, the Honors College at Arizona State University. The research revolved around deciding which financial policies, procedures, and safeguards could be useful in creating an internal control system for small businesses. In addition to academic research, I developed an “Internal Control Questionnaire” for use as a ‘jumping off point’ in conversations about a business’ existing accounting system. This questionnaire is applicable across many industries, covering the major topics which every small business/startup should consider.
The questionnaire was then used in conjunction with two interviews of small business owners. The interviews covered both the overall financial status of their business and their business’ pre-existing accounting system. The feedback received during these interviews was subsequently used to provide the business owners with eleven recommendations ranging from the implementation of new policies to verification of existing internal controls.
Finally, I summarize my findings, both academic and real-world, conveying that many small business owners do not implement formal internal control systems. I also discuss why the business owners, in this specific circumstance, did not yet implement the aforementioned eleven suggestions.
The questionnaire was then used in conjunction with two interviews of small business owners. The interviews covered both the overall financial status of their business and their business’ pre-existing accounting system. The feedback received during these interviews was subsequently used to provide the business owners with eleven recommendations ranging from the implementation of new policies to verification of existing internal controls.
Finally, I summarize my findings, both academic and real-world, conveying that many small business owners do not implement formal internal control systems. I also discuss why the business owners, in this specific circumstance, did not yet implement the aforementioned eleven suggestions.
ContributorsDuncan, Spencer James (Author) / Garverick, Michael (Thesis director) / Casas Arce, Pablo (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on public good provision.
The first chapter develops a model of charity’s choice of fundraising method under two dimensions of asymmetric information, quality and purpose. The main implication is a separating equilibrium where higher-quality charities choose to distinguish themselves by using a traditional fundraising method, while lower-quality ones exploit a low-stakes, take-it- or leave-it, ``checkout’’ method. An empirical application reinforced that charities of lower quality are more likely to adopt the checkout method. Despite this, consumers still choose to give in the equilibrium, due to the small requested amount of checkout donations, which disincentivizes serious thinking. Although exploited by lower-quality charities, the checkout method, along with purpose uncertainty, has the potential to alleviate the free-riding problem associated with public good provision and is, therefore, welfare improving.
The second chapter studies why corporations donate to charities and
how their donations affect social welfare. I propose that firms make donations out of an image reason. In a model where two firms compete with each other, charitable donation could attract consumers and also signal firm overall social responsibility. I show that there exists an equilibrium where the high responsibility firm overdonates,
resulting in a donation level closer to the socially optimal
one. This leads to higher consumer welfare due to higher private good
consumption as well as higher public good consumption when overdonation is prominent. Overall social welfare is enhanced. Empirical results support social image as an incentive for firms to donate.
The third chapter examines people's marginal willingness to pay for a change in local public good provision. We use a fixed effects hedonic model with MSA level data to study the effect of crime on local housing price. We explore the 1990s crime drop and use abortion data in 1970s and 1980s as an instrumental variable based on \citet*{donohue2001impact}. One result we find is that a decrease in murder of 100 cases per 10,000 people increases housing price by 70\%. We further translate this result into a value of a statistical case of homicide, which is around 0.4 million in 1999 dollars.
The first chapter develops a model of charity’s choice of fundraising method under two dimensions of asymmetric information, quality and purpose. The main implication is a separating equilibrium where higher-quality charities choose to distinguish themselves by using a traditional fundraising method, while lower-quality ones exploit a low-stakes, take-it- or leave-it, ``checkout’’ method. An empirical application reinforced that charities of lower quality are more likely to adopt the checkout method. Despite this, consumers still choose to give in the equilibrium, due to the small requested amount of checkout donations, which disincentivizes serious thinking. Although exploited by lower-quality charities, the checkout method, along with purpose uncertainty, has the potential to alleviate the free-riding problem associated with public good provision and is, therefore, welfare improving.
The second chapter studies why corporations donate to charities and
how their donations affect social welfare. I propose that firms make donations out of an image reason. In a model where two firms compete with each other, charitable donation could attract consumers and also signal firm overall social responsibility. I show that there exists an equilibrium where the high responsibility firm overdonates,
resulting in a donation level closer to the socially optimal
one. This leads to higher consumer welfare due to higher private good
consumption as well as higher public good consumption when overdonation is prominent. Overall social welfare is enhanced. Empirical results support social image as an incentive for firms to donate.
The third chapter examines people's marginal willingness to pay for a change in local public good provision. We use a fixed effects hedonic model with MSA level data to study the effect of crime on local housing price. We explore the 1990s crime drop and use abortion data in 1970s and 1980s as an instrumental variable based on \citet*{donohue2001impact}. One result we find is that a decrease in murder of 100 cases per 10,000 people increases housing price by 70\%. We further translate this result into a value of a statistical case of homicide, which is around 0.4 million in 1999 dollars.
ContributorsTao, Ran (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Bishop, Kelly (Committee member) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one examines whether spending different amount of time outdoors on weekends and weekdays change the estimates of the impact of ground level ozone on the incidents of respiratory disease and asthma in California. This chapter contributes to the literature that focuses on the short term effect of air pollution on public health. Using the American Time Use Survey data, I find that on average people spend 50 minutes outdoors on weekends more than weekdays. Incorporating this difference in estimating the health impact of ozone changes the results significantly, especially for adults 20-64. The specification also allows me to find a precise estimate for each day of the week.
In chapter two I estimate the effect of exposure to ozone on skills of children aged 3 to 15 years. I use the Letter-Word (LW) test scores from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) as a measure of children's skills. Due to omitted variable bias, OLS estimate of ozone effect on children's skill is positive and imprecisely estimated. To mitigate the omitted variable bias I use the instrumental variables approach. This method accounts for endogeneity of pollution. The effect of ozone on children's skills becomes negative but only marginally significant.
In chapter three, I estimate a production function of skill formation for children 3 to 15 years old and simultaneously account for their childhood exposure to ozone. I find that a one standard deviation increase in ozone leads to a 0.07 standard deviation reduction in the LW test scores on average. The LW test score of 3 year olds drops by 0.10 standard deviation in response to one standard deviation increase in pollution levels, while for the 14 year olds this effect is only half as much, 0.04 standard deviation. I also find that households exhibit compensatory behavior and mitigate the negative effect of pollution by investing more on their children. I quantitatively demonstrate that certain policies, such as a reduction in pollution levels or income transfers to families, can remediate the negative impact of childhood exposure to pollution on adult outcomes.
In chapter two I estimate the effect of exposure to ozone on skills of children aged 3 to 15 years. I use the Letter-Word (LW) test scores from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) as a measure of children's skills. Due to omitted variable bias, OLS estimate of ozone effect on children's skill is positive and imprecisely estimated. To mitigate the omitted variable bias I use the instrumental variables approach. This method accounts for endogeneity of pollution. The effect of ozone on children's skills becomes negative but only marginally significant.
In chapter three, I estimate a production function of skill formation for children 3 to 15 years old and simultaneously account for their childhood exposure to ozone. I find that a one standard deviation increase in ozone leads to a 0.07 standard deviation reduction in the LW test scores on average. The LW test score of 3 year olds drops by 0.10 standard deviation in response to one standard deviation increase in pollution levels, while for the 14 year olds this effect is only half as much, 0.04 standard deviation. I also find that households exhibit compensatory behavior and mitigate the negative effect of pollution by investing more on their children. I quantitatively demonstrate that certain policies, such as a reduction in pollution levels or income transfers to families, can remediate the negative impact of childhood exposure to pollution on adult outcomes.
ContributorsVahedi, Sajad (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Wiswall, Matthew (Committee member) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017