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- Creators: Arizona State University
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Description
This thesis pursues a method to deregulate the electric distribution system and provide support to distributed renewable generation. A locational marginal price is used to determine prices across a distribution network in real-time. The real-time pricing may provide benefits such as a reduced electricity bill, decreased peak demand, and lower emissions. This distribution locational marginal price (D-LMP) determines the cost of electricity at each node in the electrical network. The D-LMP is comprised of the cost of energy, cost of losses, and a renewable energy premium. The renewable premium is an adjustable function to compensate `green' distributed generation. A D-LMP is derived and formulated from the PJM model, as well as several alternative formulations. The logistics and infrastructure an implementation is briefly discussed. This study also takes advantage of the D-LMP real-time pricing to implement distributed storage technology. A storage schedule optimization is developed using linear programming. Day-ahead LMPs and historical load data are used to determine a predictive optimization. A test bed is created to represent a practical electric distribution system. Historical load, solar, and LMP data are used in the test bed to create a realistic environment. A power flow and tabulation of the D-LMPs was conducted for twelve test cases. The test cases included various penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV), system networking, and the inclusion of storage technology. Tables of the D-LMPs and network voltages are presented in this work. The final costs are summed and the basic economics are examined. The use of a D-LMP can lower costs across a system when advanced technologies are used. Storage improves system costs, decreases losses, improves system load factor, and bolsters voltage. Solar energy provides many of these same attributes at lower penetrations, but high penetrations have a detrimental effect on the system. System networking also increases these positive effects. The D-LMP has a positive impact on residential customer cost, while greatly increasing the costs for the industrial sector. The D-LMP appears to have many positive impacts on the distribution system but proper cost allocation needs further development.
ContributorsKiefer, Brian Daniel (Author) / Heydt, Gerald T (Thesis advisor) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Designing studies that use latent growth modeling to investigate change over time calls for optimal approaches for conducting power analysis for a priori determination of required sample size. This investigation (1) studied the impacts of variations in specified parameters, design features, and model misspecification in simulation-based power analyses and (2) compared power estimates across three common power analysis techniques: the Monte Carlo method; the Satorra-Saris method; and the method developed by MacCallum, Browne, and Cai (MBC). Choice of sample size, effect size, and slope variance parameters markedly influenced power estimates; however, level-1 error variance and number of repeated measures (3 vs. 6) when study length was held constant had little impact on resulting power. Under some conditions, having a moderate versus small effect size or using a sample size of 800 versus 200 increased power by approximately .40, and a slope variance of 10 versus 20 increased power by up to .24. Decreasing error variance from 100 to 50, however, increased power by no more than .09 and increasing measurement occasions from 3 to 6 increased power by no more than .04. Misspecification in level-1 error structure had little influence on power, whereas misspecifying the form of the growth model as linear rather than quadratic dramatically reduced power for detecting differences in slopes. Additionally, power estimates based on the Monte Carlo and Satorra-Saris techniques never differed by more than .03, even with small sample sizes, whereas power estimates for the MBC technique appeared quite discrepant from the other two techniques. Results suggest the choice between using the Satorra-Saris or Monte Carlo technique in a priori power analyses for slope differences in latent growth models is a matter of preference, although features such as missing data can only be considered within the Monte Carlo approach. Further, researchers conducting power analyses for slope differences in latent growth models should pay greatest attention to estimating slope difference, slope variance, and sample size. Arguments are also made for examining model-implied covariance matrices based on estimated parameters and graphic depictions of slope variance to help ensure parameter estimates are reasonable in a priori power analysis.
ContributorsVan Vleet, Bethany Lucía (Author) / Thompson, Marilyn S. (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel B. (Committee member) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
This dissertation consists of two essays. The first measures the degree to which schooling accounts for differences in industry value added per worker. Using a sample of 107 economies and seven industries, the paper considers the patterns in the education levels of various industries and their relative value added per worker. Agriculture has notably less schooling and is less productive than other sectors, while a group of services including financial services, education and health care has higher rates of schooling and higher value added per worker. The essay finds that in the case of these specific industries education is important in explaining sector differences, and the role of education all other industries are less defined. The second essay provides theory to investigate the relationship between agriculture and schooling. During structural transformation, workers shift from the agriculture sector with relatively low schooling to other sectors which have more schooling. This essay explores to what extent changes in the costs of acquiring schooling drive structural transformation using a multi-sector growth model which includes a schooling choice. The model is disciplined using cross country data on sector of employment and schooling constructed from the IPUM International census collection. Counterfactual exercises are used to determine how much structural transformation is accounted for by changes in the cost of acquiring schooling. These changes account for small shares of structural transformation in all economies with a median near zero.
ContributorsSchreck, Paul (Author) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Committee member) / Lagakos, David (Committee member) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
This thesis was conducted to study and analyze the fund allocation process adopted by different states in the United States to reduce the impact of the Covid-19 virus. Seven different states and their funding methodologies were compared against the case count within the state. The study also focused on development of a physical distancing index based on three significant attributes. This index was then compared to the expenditure and case counts to support decision making.
A regression model was developed to analyze and compare how different states case counts played out against the regression model and the risk index.
ContributorsJaisinghani, Shaurya (Author) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Thesis director) / Clough, Michael (Committee member) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
This survey takes information on a participant’s beliefs on privacy security, the general digital knowledge, demographics, and willingness-to-pay points on if they would delete information on their social media, to see how an information treatment affects those payment points. This information treatment is meant to make half of the participants think about the deeper ramifications of the information they reveal. The initial hypothesis is that this information will make people want to pay more to remove their information from the web, but the results find a surprising negative correlation with the treatment.
ContributorsDeitrick, Noah Sumner (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis director) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
In many classication problems data samples cannot be collected easily, example in drug trials, biological experiments and study on cancer patients. In many situations the data set size is small and there are many outliers. When classifying such data, example cancer vs normal patients the consequences of mis-classication are probably more important than any other data type, because the data point could be a cancer patient or the classication decision could help determine what gene might be over expressed and perhaps a cause of cancer. These mis-classications are typically higher in the presence of outlier data points. The aim of this thesis is to develop a maximum margin classier that is suited to address the lack of robustness of discriminant based classiers (like the Support Vector Machine (SVM)) to noise and outliers. The underlying notion is to adopt and develop a natural loss function that is more robust to outliers and more representative of the true loss function of the data. It is demonstrated experimentally that SVM's are indeed susceptible to outliers and that the new classier developed, here coined as Robust-SVM (RSVM), is superior to all studied classier on the synthetic datasets. It is superior to the SVM in both the synthetic and experimental data from biomedical studies and is competent to a classier derived on similar lines when real life data examples are considered.
ContributorsGupta, Sidharth (Author) / Kim, Seungchan (Thesis advisor) / Welfert, Bruno (Committee member) / Li, Baoxin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
By the von Neumann min-max theorem, a two person zero sum game with finitely many pure strategies has a unique value for each player (summing to zero) and each player has a non-empty set of optimal mixed strategies. If the payoffs are independent, identically distributed (iid) uniform (0,1) random variables, then with probability one, both players have unique optimal mixed strategies utilizing the same number of pure strategies with positive probability (Jonasson 2004). The pure strategies with positive probability in the unique optimal mixed strategies are called saddle squares. In 1957, Goldman evaluated the probability of a saddle point (a 1 by 1 saddle square), which was rediscovered by many authors including Thorp (1979). Thorp gave two proofs of the probability of a saddle point, one using combinatorics and one using a beta integral. In 1965, Falk and Thrall investigated the integrals required for the probabilities of a 2 by 2 saddle square for 2 × n and m × 2 games with iid uniform (0,1) payoffs, but they were not able to evaluate the integrals. This dissertation generalizes Thorp's beta integral proof of Goldman's probability of a saddle point, establishing an integral formula for the probability that a m × n game with iid uniform (0,1) payoffs has a k by k saddle square (k ≤ m,n). Additionally, the probabilities of a 2 by 2 and a 3 by 3 saddle square for a 3 × 3 game with iid uniform(0,1) payoffs are found. For these, the 14 integrals observed by Falk and Thrall are dissected into 38 disjoint domains, and the integrals are evaluated using the basic properties of the dilogarithm function. The final results for the probabilities of a 2 by 2 and a 3 by 3 saddle square in a 3 × 3 game are linear combinations of 1, π2, and ln(2) with rational coefficients.
ContributorsManley, Michael (Author) / Kadell, Kevin W. J. (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Lohr, Sharon (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Mostly, manufacturing tolerance charts are used these days for manufacturing tolerance transfer but these have the limitation of being one dimensional only. Some research has been undertaken for the three dimensional geometric tolerances but it is too theoretical and yet to be ready for operator level usage. In this research, a new three dimensional model for tolerance transfer in manufacturing process planning is presented that is user friendly in the sense that it is built upon the Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) readings that are readily available in any decent manufacturing facility. This model can take care of datum reference change between non orthogonal datums (squeezed datums), non-linearly oriented datums (twisted datums) etc. Graph theoretic approach based upon ACIS, C++ and MFC is laid out to facilitate its implementation for automation of the model. A totally new approach to determining dimensions and tolerances for the manufacturing process plan is also presented. Secondly, a new statistical model for the statistical tolerance analysis based upon joint probability distribution of the trivariate normal distributed variables is presented. 4-D probability Maps have been developed in which the probability value of a point in space is represented by the size of the marker and the associated color. Points inside the part map represent the pass percentage for parts manufactured. The effect of refinement with form and orientation tolerance is highlighted by calculating the change in pass percentage with the pass percentage for size tolerance only. Delaunay triangulation and ray tracing algorithms have been used to automate the process of identifying the points inside and outside the part map. Proof of concept software has been implemented to demonstrate this model and to determine pass percentages for various cases. The model is further extended to assemblies by employing convolution algorithms on two trivariate statistical distributions to arrive at the statistical distribution of the assembly. Map generated by using Minkowski Sum techniques on the individual part maps is superimposed on the probability point cloud resulting from convolution. Delaunay triangulation and ray tracing algorithms are employed to determine the assembleability percentages for the assembly.
ContributorsKhan, M Nadeem Shafi (Author) / Phelan, Patrick E (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Farin, Gerald (Committee member) / Roberts, Chell (Committee member) / Henderson, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Hydropower generation is one of the clean renewable energies which has received great attention in the power industry. Hydropower has been the leading source of renewable energy. It provides more than 86% of all electricity generated by renewable sources worldwide. Generally, the life span of a hydropower plant is considered as 30 to 50 years. Power plants over 30 years old usually conduct a feasibility study of rehabilitation on their entire facilities including infrastructure. By age 35, the forced outage rate increases by 10 percentage points compared to the previous year. Much longer outages occur in power plants older than 20 years. Consequently, the forced outage rate increases exponentially due to these longer outages. Although these long forced outages are not frequent, their impact is immense. If reasonable timing of rehabilitation is missed, an abrupt long-term outage could occur and additional unnecessary repairs and inefficiencies would follow. On the contrary, too early replacement might cause the waste of revenue. The hydropower plants of Korea Water Resources Corporation (hereafter K-water) are utilized for this study. Twenty-four K-water generators comprise the population for quantifying the reliability of each equipment. A facility in a hydropower plant is a repairable system because most failures can be fixed without replacing the entire facility. The fault data of each power plant are collected, within which only forced outage faults are considered as raw data for reliability analyses. The mean cumulative repair functions (MCF) of each facility are determined with the failure data tables, using Nelson's graph method. The power law model, a popular model for a repairable system, can also be obtained to represent representative equipment and system availability. The criterion-based analysis of HydroAmp is used to provide more accurate reliability of each power plant. Two case studies are presented to enhance the understanding of the availability of each power plant and represent economic evaluations for modernization. Also, equipment in a hydropower plant is categorized into two groups based on their reliability for determining modernization timing and their suitable replacement periods are obtained using simulation.
ContributorsKwon, Ogeuk (Author) / Holbert, Keith E. (Thesis advisor) / Heydt, Gerald T (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Real-world environments are characterized by non-stationary and continuously evolving data. Learning a classification model on this data would require a framework that is able to adapt itself to newer circumstances. Under such circumstances, transfer learning has come to be a dependable methodology for improving classification performance with reduced training costs and without the need for explicit relearning from scratch. In this thesis, a novel instance transfer technique that adapts a "Cost-sensitive" variation of AdaBoost is presented. The method capitalizes on the theoretical and functional properties of AdaBoost to selectively reuse outdated training instances obtained from a "source" domain to effectively classify unseen instances occurring in a different, but related "target" domain. The algorithm is evaluated on real-world classification problems namely accelerometer based 3D gesture recognition, smart home activity recognition and text categorization. The performance on these datasets is analyzed and evaluated against popular boosting-based instance transfer techniques. In addition, supporting empirical studies, that investigate some of the less explored bottlenecks of boosting based instance transfer methods, are presented, to understand the suitability and effectiveness of this form of knowledge transfer.
ContributorsVenkatesan, Ashok (Author) / Panchanathan, Sethuraman (Thesis advisor) / Li, Baoxin (Committee member) / Ye, Jieping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011