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- Creators: Department of Finance
Description
Dr. Dean Kashiwagi created a new thinking paradigm, Information Measurement Theory (IMT), which utilizes the understanding of natural laws to help individuals minimize decision-making and risk, which leads to reduced stress. In this new paradigm, any given situation can only have one unique outcome. The more information an individual has for the given situation, the better they can predict the outcome. Using IMT can help correctly "predict the future" of any situation if given enough of the correct information. A prime example of using IMT would be: to correctly predict what a young woman will be like when she's older, simply look at the young woman's mother. In essence, if you can't fall in love with the mother, don't marry the young woman. The researchers are utilizing the concept of IMT and extrapolating it to the financial investing world. They researched different financial investing strategies and were able to come to the conclusion that a strategy utilizing IMT would yield the highest results for investors while minimizing stress. Investors using deductive logic to invest received, on average, 1300% more returns than investors who did not over a 25-year period. Where other investors made many decisions and were constantly stressed with the tribulations of the market, the investors utilizing IMT made one decision and made much more than other investors. The research confirms the stock market will continue to increase over time by looking at the history of the stock market from a birds-eye view. Throughout the existence of the stock market, there have been highs and lows, but at the end of the day, the market continues to break through new ceilings. Investing in the stock market can be a dark and scary place for the blind investor. Using the concept of IMT can eliminate that blindfold to reduce stress on investors while earning the highest financial return potential. Using the basis of IMT, the researchers predict the market will continue to increase in the future; in conclusion, the best investment strategy is to invest in blue chip stocks that have a history of past success, in order to capture secure growth with minimal risk and stress.
ContributorsBerns, Ryan (Co-author) / Ybanez, Julian (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This paper examines the qualitative and quantitative effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the current landscape of the investment banking industry. We begin by reviewing what occurred during the financial crisis, including which banks took TARP money, which banks became bank holding companies, and significant mergers and acquisitions. We then examine the new regulations that were created in reaction to the crisis, including the Dodd-Frank Act. In particular, we focus on the Volcker Rule, which is a section of the act that prohibits proprietary trading and other risky activities at banks. Then we shift into a quantitative analysis of the changes that banks made from the years 2005-2016. To do this, we chose four banks to be representative of the industry: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America. We then analyze four metrics for each bank: revenue mix, value at risk, tangible common equity ratio, and debt to equity ratio. These provide methods for analyzing how banks have shifted their revenue centers to accommodate new regulations, as well as how these shifts have affected banks' risk levels and leverage. Our data show that all four banks that we observed shifted their revenue centers to flatter revenue areas, such as investment management, wealth management, and consumer banking operations. This was paired with fairly flat investment banking revenues across the board when controlling for overall market changes in the investment banking sector. Additionally, trading-focused banks significantly shifted their operations away from proprietary trading and higher risk activities. These changes resulted in lower value at risk measures for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley with very minor increases for J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, although these two banks had low levels of absolute value at risk when compared to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. All banks' tangible common equity ratios increased and debt to equity ratios decreased, indicating a safer investment for shareholders and lower leverage. We conclude by offering a forecast of our expectations for the future, particularly in light of a Trump presidency. We expect less regulation going forward and the potential reversal of the Volcker Rule. We believe that these changes would result in more revenue coming from trading and riskier strategies, increasing value at risk, decreasing tangible common equity ratios, and increasing debt to equity ratios. While we do expect less regulation and higher risk, we do not expect these banks to reach pre-crisis levels due to the significant amount of regulations that would be particularly difficult for the Trump administration to reverse.
ContributorsPatel, Aashay (Co-author) / Goulder, Gregory (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, banking regulators have been taking a more active role in pursing greater financial stability. One area of focus has been on Wall Street banks' leverage lending practices which include leveraged lending activities to fund leveraged buyouts. In March 2013, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued guidance urging banks to avoid financing leveraged buyouts in most industries that would put total debt on a company of more than six times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda. Our research, using data on all leveraged buyouts (with EBITDA >$20 million) issued after the guidance, sets out to explain the elements banks consider when exceeding leverage limitations. Initially, we hypothesized that since deals over 6x leverage had higher amounts of debt, they were riskier deals, which would carry over to other risk measures such as yield to maturity on debt and company credit ratings. To analyze this, we obtained a large data set with all LBO deals in the past three years and ran difference-in-means tests on a number of variables such as deal size, credit rating and yield to maturity to determine if deals over 6x leverage had significantly different risk characteristics than deals under 6x leverage. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that deals over 6x leverage had significantly less risk, mainly demonstrated by lower average YTMs, than deals under 6x. One possible explanation of this might be that banks, wanting to ensure they are not fined, will only go through with a deal over 6x leverage if other risk metrics such as yield to maturity are well below average.
ContributorsKing, Adam (Co-author) / Lukemire, Sean (Co-author) / McAleer, Stephen (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Bonadurer, Werner (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Wealth Wise is an innovative initiative targeting middle school students to bridge the gap in financial literacy within Arizona's challenging educational landscape. Through meticulous research, they aim to develop a comprehensive curriculum covering budgeting, investment, credit management, and banking principles, fostering critical thinking and financial independence. Collaborations with educators and interactive teaching methods are central to their approach, envisioning a future where financial literacy is fundamental to education, empowering a financially secure society.
ContributorsCasanova, Pablo (Author) / Green, Aaron (Co-author) / Dudas, Caleb (Co-author) / Sanchez, Tomas (Co-author) / Dalvi, Tejas (Co-author) / Byrne, Jared (Thesis director) / Lawson, Brennan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2024-05
Description
Successful public transit systems increase the value of locations they serve. Capturing this location value to help fund transit is often sensible, but challenging. This article defines location value capture, and synthesizes lessons learned from six European and North American transit agencies that have experience with location value capture funding. The opportunities for and barriers to implementing location value capture fall into three categories: agency institutional authority, agency organizational mission, and public support for transit. When any of these factors is incompatible with a location value capture strategy, implementation becomes difficult. In four of the cases studied, dramatic institutional change was critical for success. In five cases, acute crisis was a catalyst for institutional change, value capture implementation, or both. Using value capture strategies to fund transit requires practitioners to both understand agency organizational constraints, and to view transit agencies as institutions that can transform in response to changing situations.
ContributorsSalon, Deborah (Author) / Sclar, Elliott (Author) / Barone, Richard (Author)
Created2017-05-12