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- All Subjects: Regression
Description
The Experimental Data Processing (EDP) software is a C++ GUI-based application to streamline the process of creating a model for structural systems based on experimental data. EDP is designed to process raw data, filter the data for noise and outliers, create a fitted model to describe that data, complete a probabilistic analysis to describe the variation between replicates of the experimental process, and analyze reliability of a structural system based on that model. In order to help design the EDP software to perform the full analysis, the probabilistic and regression modeling aspects of this analysis have been explored. The focus has been on creating and analyzing probabilistic models for the data, adding multivariate and nonparametric fits to raw data, and developing computational techniques that allow for these methods to be properly implemented within EDP. For creating a probabilistic model of replicate data, the normal, lognormal, gamma, Weibull, and generalized exponential distributions have been explored. Goodness-of-fit tests, including the chi-squared, Anderson-Darling, and Kolmogorov-Smirnoff tests, have been used in order to analyze the effectiveness of any of these probabilistic models in describing the variation of parameters between replicates of an experimental test. An example using Young's modulus data for a Kevlar-49 Swath stress-strain test was used in order to demonstrate how this analysis is performed within EDP. In order to implement the distributions, numerical solutions for the gamma, beta, and hypergeometric functions were implemented, along with an arbitrary precision library to store numbers that exceed the maximum size of double-precision floating point digits. To create a multivariate fit, the multilinear solution was created as the simplest solution to the multivariate regression problem. This solution was then extended to solve nonlinear problems that can be linearized into multiple separable terms. These problems were solved analytically with the closed-form solution for the multilinear regression, and then by using a QR decomposition to solve numerically while avoiding numerical instabilities associated with matrix inversion. For nonparametric regression, or smoothing, the loess method was developed as a robust technique for filtering noise while maintaining the general structure of the data points. The loess solution was created by addressing concerns associated with simpler smoothing methods, including the running mean, running line, and kernel smoothing techniques, and combining the ability of each of these methods to resolve those issues. The loess smoothing method involves weighting each point in a partition of the data set, and then adding either a line or a polynomial fit within that partition. Both linear and quadratic methods were applied to a carbon fiber compression test, showing that the quadratic model was more accurate but the linear model had a shape that was more effective for analyzing the experimental data. Finally, the EDP program itself was explored to consider its current functionalities for processing data, as described by shear tests on carbon fiber data, and the future functionalities to be developed. The probabilistic and raw data processing capabilities were demonstrated within EDP, and the multivariate and loess analysis was demonstrated using R. As the functionality and relevant considerations for these methods have been developed, the immediate goal is to finish implementing and integrating these additional features into a version of EDP that performs a full streamlined structural analysis on experimental data.
ContributorsMarkov, Elan Richard (Author) / Rajan, Subramaniam (Thesis director) / Khaled, Bilal (Committee member) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Ira A. Fulton School of Engineering (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The NFL is one of largest and most influential industries in the world. In America there are few companies that have a stronger hold on the American culture and create such a phenomena from year to year. In this project aimed to develop a strategy that helps an NFL team be as successful as possible by defining which positions are most important to a team's success. Data from fifteen years of NFL games was collected and information on every player in the league was analyzed. First there needed to be a benchmark which describes a team as being average and then every player in the NFL must be compared to that average. Based on properties of linear regression using ordinary least squares this project aims to define such a model that shows each position's importance. Finally, once such a model had been established then the focus turned to the NFL draft in which the goal was to find a strategy of where each position needs to be drafted so that it is most likely to give the best payoff based on the results of the regression in part one.
ContributorsBalzer, Kevin Ryan (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Dassanayake, Maduranga (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Rainbow Connection is an integrated choir with members on and off the autism spectrum. It was founded in the spring of 2012 by Barrett students Ali Friedman, Megan Howell, and Victoria Gilman as part of an honors thesis creative project. Rainbow Connection uses the rehearsal process and other creative endeavors to foster natural relationship building across social gaps. A process-oriented choir, Rainbow Connection's main goals concern the connections made throughout the experience rather than the final musical product. The authors believe that individual, non-hierarchical relationships are the keys to breaking down systemized gaps between identity groups and that music is an ideal facilitator for fostering such relationships. Rainbow Connection operates under the premise that, like colors in a rainbow, choir members create something beautiful not by melding into one homogenous group, but by collaboratively showcasing their individual gifts. This paper will highlight the basic premise and structure of Rainbow Connection, outline the process of enacting the choir, and describe the authors' personal reactions and takeaways from the project.
ContributorsFriedman, Alexandra (Co-author) / Gilman, Victoria (Co-author) / Howell, Megan (Co-author) / Rio, Robin (Thesis director) / Schildkret, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Music (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
Independent artists are thriving in the modern music industry, creating and branding their own music, and developing rich concentrations of fans. Indie artists are progressively securing positions within mainstream music while also upholding individuality. With technology advancements, to include self-recording technology, wearable devices, and mobile operating systems, independent artists are able to extend their reach to a variety of audiences. Social media platforms' progression has further catalyzed artists' capability of growth, as they have the capacity to personalize marketing content, develop loyal fan-bases, and engage directly with potential consumers. Artists are increasingly fabricating their own unique spaces in an industry that was formerly controlled by conventions. This thesis involves the production of a three-song extended play, and ascertains how to effectively capitalize on the wide array of modern marketing platforms.
ContributorsBerk, Ruth C (Author) / Ostrom, Lonnie (Thesis director) / Schlacter, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) in many ways are similar to more traditional closed-end mutual
funds, although thee differ in a crucial way. ETFs rely on a creation and redemption feature to
achieve their functionality and this mechanism is designed to minimize the deviations that occur
between the ETF’s listed price and the net asset value of the ETF’s underlying assets. However
while this does cause ETF deviations to be generally lower than their mutual fund counterparts,
as our paper explores this process does not eliminate these deviations completely. This article
builds off an earlier paper by Engle and Sarkar (2006) that investigates these properties of
premiums (discounts) of ETFs from their fair market value. And looks to see if these premia
have changed in the last 10 years. Our paper then diverges from the original and takes a deeper
look into the standard deviations of these premia specifically.
Our findings show that over 70% of an ETFs standard deviation of premia can be
explained through a linear combination consisting of two variables: a categorical (Domestic[US],
Developed, Emerging) and a discrete variable (time-difference from US). This paper also finds
that more traditional metrics such as market cap, ETF price volatility, and even 3rd party market
indicators such as the economic freedom index and investment freedom index are insignificant
predictors of an ETFs standard deviation of premia. These findings differ somewhat from
existing literature which indicate that these factors should have a significant impact on the
predictive ability of an ETFs standard deviation of premia.
funds, although thee differ in a crucial way. ETFs rely on a creation and redemption feature to
achieve their functionality and this mechanism is designed to minimize the deviations that occur
between the ETF’s listed price and the net asset value of the ETF’s underlying assets. However
while this does cause ETF deviations to be generally lower than their mutual fund counterparts,
as our paper explores this process does not eliminate these deviations completely. This article
builds off an earlier paper by Engle and Sarkar (2006) that investigates these properties of
premiums (discounts) of ETFs from their fair market value. And looks to see if these premia
have changed in the last 10 years. Our paper then diverges from the original and takes a deeper
look into the standard deviations of these premia specifically.
Our findings show that over 70% of an ETFs standard deviation of premia can be
explained through a linear combination consisting of two variables: a categorical (Domestic[US],
Developed, Emerging) and a discrete variable (time-difference from US). This paper also finds
that more traditional metrics such as market cap, ETF price volatility, and even 3rd party market
indicators such as the economic freedom index and investment freedom index are insignificant
predictors of an ETFs standard deviation of premia. These findings differ somewhat from
existing literature which indicate that these factors should have a significant impact on the
predictive ability of an ETFs standard deviation of premia.
ContributorsHenning, Thomas Louis (Co-author) / Zhang, Jingbo (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Wendell, Licon (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
In the last decade, the population of honey bees across the globe has declined sharply leaving scientists and bee keepers to wonder why? Amongst all nations, the United States has seen some of the greatest declines in the last 10 plus years. Without a definite explanation, Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) was coined to explain the sudden and sharp decline of the honey bee colonies that beekeepers were experiencing. Colony collapses have been rising higher compared to expected averages over the years, and during the winter season losses are even more severe than what is normally acceptable. There are some possible explanations pointing towards meteorological variables, diseases, and even pesticide usage. Despite the cause of CCD being unknown, thousands of beekeepers have reported their losses, and even numbers of infected colonies and colonies under certain stressors in the most recent years. Using the data that was reported to The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), as well as weather data collected by The National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA) and the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), regression analysis was used to investigate honey bee colonies to find relationships between stressors in honey bee colonies and meteorological variables, and colony collapses during the winter months. The regression analysis focused on the winter season, or quarter 4 of the year, which includes the months of October, November, and December. In the model, the response variables was the percentage of colonies lost in quarter 4. Through the model, it was concluded that certain weather thresholds and the percentage increase of colonies under certain stressors were related to colony loss.
ContributorsVasquez, Henry Antony (Author) / Zheng, Yi (Thesis director) / Saffell, Erinanne (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This project is an arrangement of three movements from Igor Stravinsky's most famous and beloved ballets for performance by classical guitar quartet. The movements arranged were "Augurs of Spring" from The Rite of Spring (1913), "Russian Dance" from Petrouchka (1911), and "Infernal Dance of All Kastchei's Subjects" from The Firebird (1910). Because the appeal of this music is largely based on the exciting rhythms and interesting harmonies, these works translate from full orchestra to guitar quite well. The arrangement process involved studying both the orchestral scores and Stravinsky's own piano reductions. The sheet music for these arrangements is accompanied by a written document which explains arrangement decisions and provides performance notes. Select movements from Stravinsky for Guitar Quartet were performed at concerts in Tempe, Glendale, Flagstaff, and Tucson throughout April 2016. The suite was performed in its entirety in the Organ Hall at the ASU School of Music on April 26th 2016 at the Guitar Ensembles Concert as well as on April 27th 2016 at Katie Sample's senior recital. A recording of the April 27th performance accompanies the sheet music and arrangement/performance notes.
ContributorsSample, Katherine Elizabeth (Author) / Koonce, Frank (Thesis director) / Lake, Brendan (Committee member) / Herberger Institute for Design and the Arts (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Music (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This paper will begin by initially discussing the potential uses and challenges of efficient and accurate traffic forecasting. The data we used includes traffic volume from seven locations on a busy Athens street in April and May of 2000. This data was used as part of a traffic forecasting competition. Our initial observation, was that due to the volatility and oscillating nature of daily traffic volume, simple linear regression models will not perform well in predicting the time-series data. For this we present the Harmonic Time Series model. Such model (assuming all predictors are significant) will include a sinusoidal term for each time index within a period of data. Our assumption is that traffic volumes have a period of one week (which is evidenced by the graphs reproduced in our paper). This leads to a model that has 6,720 sine and cosine terms. This is clearly too many coefficients, so in an effort to avoid over-fitting and having an efficient model, we apply the sub-setting algorithm known as Adaptive Lass.
ContributorsMora, Juan (Author) / Kamarianakis, Ioannis (Thesis director) / Yu, Wanchunzi (Committee member) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
This paper attempts to introduce analytics and regression techniques into the National Hockey League. Hockey as a sport has been a slow adapter of analytics, and this can be attributed to poor data collection methods. Using data collected for hockeyreference.com, and R statistical software, the number of wins a team experiences will be predicted using Goals For and Goals Against statistics from 2005-2017. The model showed statistical significance and strong normality throughout the data. The number of wins each team was expected to experience in 2016-2017 was predicted using the model and then compared to the actual number of games each team won. To further analyze the validity of the model, the expected playoff outcome for 2016-2017 was compared to the observed playoff outcome. The discussion focused on team's that did not fit the model or traditional analytics and expected forecasts. The possible discrepancies were analyzed using the Las Vegas Golden Knights as a case study. Possible next steps for data analysis are presented and the role of future technology and innovation in hockey analytics is discussed and predicted.
ContributorsVermeer, Brandon Elliot (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This project is a small scale investigation of various factors concerning "Flow" in Piano Performance. "Flow" is the sweet spot where ability and challenge are about equal, and usually high (Csikszentmihalyi 1990). Piano performance is a state of playing the piano with some intent to perform. In this case, the intent is to create something new or improvise. Improvisation is one form of expressive creativity on the piano stemming from some knowledge and extrapolation upon that knowledge (Nachmanovitch 82). Creativity is essential to the development of new music, and though extensive literature exists on both creativity and music independently, there is a gap in research regarding links between the two (Macdonald et al. 2006). This project aims to address some of these gaps by working with piano players and non-musicians of various technical skill levels to examine the "Flow" state in improvisation as well as potential factors affecting creative performance. Factors such as listening, self-confidence, frustration in methodology, and meditation practices were found to correlate positively with technical skill. Participants who completed the practice program were able to reconstruct challenges and enter the "Flow" state in improvisation regardless of high or low technical scores.
ContributorsDorr, Alexander Nathan (Author) / Kaplan, Robert (Thesis director) / Parker, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05