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- All Subjects: Influenza
- Creators: Chowell-Puente, Gerardo
- Creators: Gile, Gillian
- Creators: Legutki, Bart
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
In completing this thesis project, I attempted to hypothesize the trigger in my own personal diagnosis of type 1 diabetes through literature research as well as further research on viruses and their contribution to autoimmune disorders. I had previously hypothesized that, based on my own family life, type 1 diabetes could possibly be a non-heritable disease despite its consistent inheritance pattern discovered by researchers; however, the research presented in this thesis project rejects this idea and supports the theory that I may have been previously susceptible to this disorder and would have developed type 1 diabetes naturally. There were multiple viruses discovered during the literature research conducted that could possibly have been triggers in the acceleration of my disease. The major link between enteroviruses and autoimmune disorders was discovered, as well as influenza A and SARS-COV-2 and this is explained further in this project.