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- Creators: Barrett, The Honors College
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on modern economic growth and structural transformation, in particular touching on the reallocation of labor across industries, occupations, and employment statuses.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
ContributorsVindas Quesada, Alberto José (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Social-emotional learning (SEL) methods are beginning to receive global attention in primary school education, yet the dominant emphasis on implementing these curricula is in high-income, urbanized areas. Consequently, the unique features of developing and integrating such methods in middle- or low-income rural areas are unclear. Past studies suggest that students exposed to SEL programs show an increase in academic performance, improved ability to cope with stress, and better attitudes about themselves, others, and school, but these curricula are designed with an urban focus. The purpose of this study was to conduct a needs-based analysis to investigate components specific to a SEL curriculum contextualized to rural primary schools. A promising organization committed to rural educational development is Barefoot College, located in Tilonia, Rajasthan, India. In partnership with Barefoot, we designed an ethnographic study to identify and describe what teachers and school leaders consider the highest needs related to their students' social and emotional education. To do so, we interviewed 14 teachers and school leaders individually or in a focus group to explore their present understanding of “social-emotional learning” and the perception of their students’ social and emotional intelligence. Analysis of this data uncovered common themes among classroom behaviors and prevalent opportunities to address social and emotional well-being among students. These themes translated into the three overarching topics and eight sub-topics explored throughout the curriculum, and these opportunities guided the creation of the 21 modules within it. Through a design-based research methodology, we developed a 40-hour curriculum by implementing its various modules within seven Barefoot classrooms alongside continuous reiteration based on teacher feedback and participant observation. Through this process, we found that student engagement increased during contextualized SEL lessons as opposed to traditional methods. In addition, we found that teachers and students preferred and performed better with an activities-based approach. These findings suggest that rural educators must employ particular teaching strategies when addressing SEL, including localized content and an experiential-learning approach. Teachers reported that as their approach to SEL shifted, they began to unlock the potential to build self-aware, globally-minded students. This study concludes that social and emotional education cannot be treated in a generalized manner, as curriculum development is central to the teaching-learning process.
ContributorsBucker, Delaney Sue (Author) / Carrese, Susan (Thesis director) / Barab, Sasha (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Civic & Economic Thought and Leadership (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
The passage of 2007's Legal Arizona Workers Act, which required all new hires to be tested for legal employment status through the federal E-Verify database, drastically changed the employment prospects for undocumented workers in the state. Using data from the 2007-2010 American Community Survey, this paper seeks to identify the impact of this law on the labor force in Arizona, specifically regarding undocumented workers and less educated native workers. Overall, the data shows that the wage bias against undocumented immigrants doubled in the four years studied, and the wages of native workers without a high school degree saw a temporary, positive increase compared to comparable workers in other states. The law did not have an effect on the wages of native workers with a high school degree.
ContributorsSantiago, Maria Christina (Author) / Pereira, Claudiney (Thesis director) / Mendez, Jose (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This paper is intended to identify a correlation between the winning percentage of sports teams in the four major professional sports leagues in the United States and the GDP per capita of their respective cities. We initially compiled fifteen years of franchise performance along with economic data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to analyze this relationship. After converting the data into a language recognized by Stata, the regression tool we used, we ran multiple regressions to find relevant correlations based off of our inputs. This paper will show the value of the economic impact of strong or weak performance throughout various economic cycles through data analysis and conclusions drawn from the results of the regression analysis.
ContributorsAndl, Tyler (Co-author) / Shirk, Brandon (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
The January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake, which hit Port-au-Prince in the late afternoon, was the cause of over 220,000 deaths and $8 billion in damages \u2014 roughly 120% of national GDP at the time. A Mw 7.5 earthquake struck rural Guatemala in the early morning in 1976 and caused 23,000-25,000 deaths, three times as many injuries, and roughly $1.1 billion in damages, which accounted for approximately 30% of Guatemala's GDP. The earthquake which hit just outside of Christchurch, New Zealand early in the morning on September 4, 2010 had a magnitude of 7.1 and caused just two injuries, no deaths, and roughly 7.2 billion USD in damages (5% of GDP). These three earthquakes, all with magnitudes over 7 on the Richter scale, caused extremely varied amounts of economic damage for these three countries. This thesis aims to identify a possible explanation as to why this was the case and suggest ways in which to improve disaster risk management going forward.
ContributorsHeuermann, Jamie Lynne (Author) / Schoellman, Todd (Thesis director) / Mendez, Jose (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The ability to draft and develop productive Major League players is vital to the success of any MLB organization. A core of cost-controlled, productive players is as important as ever with free agent salaries continuing to rise dramatically. In a sport where mere percentage points separate winners from losers at the end of a long season, any slight advantage in identifying talent is valuable. This study examines the 2004-2008 MLB Amateur Drafts in order to analyze whether certain types of prospects are more valuable selections than others. If organizations can better identify which draft prospects will more likely contribute at the Major League level in the future, they can more optimally spend their allotted signing bonus pool in order to acquire as much potential production as possible through the draft. Based on the data examined, during these five drafts high school prospects provided higher value than college prospects. While college players reached the Majors at a higher rate, high school players produced greater value in their first six seasons of service time. In the all-important first round of the draft, where signing bonuses are at their largest, college players proved the more valuable selection. When players were separated by position, position players held greater expected value than pitchers, with corner infielders leading the way as the position group with the highest expected value. College players were found to provide better value than high school players at defensively demanding positions such as catcher and middle infield, while high school players were more valuable among outfielders and pitchers.
ContributorsGildea, Adam Joseph (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The following paper consists of a review of sovereign debt sustainability economics and IMF debt sustainability frameworks, as well as a historical case study of Greece and a variable suggestion for the IMF to improve baseline assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to review the current methodology of perceiving debt and improve upon it in the face of an increasingly indebted global economy. Thus, this paper suggests the IMF adopt the variable calculated in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) as a new benchmark for determining debt sustainability of market access countries. Through an exploration of the most recent Greek crisis, as well as modern Greek financial and political history, the author of this paper contends the IMF should reduce the broadness of the MAC DSA, as it will make for better debt sustainability projections and assumptions in implementing debt program policy.
ContributorsJennings, Zane Phillips (Author) / Mendez, Jose (Thesis director) / Roberts, Nancy (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Alternative currencies have a long and varied history, in which Bitcoin is the latest chapter. The pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin as an implementation of the concept of a cryptocurrency, or a decentralized currency based on the principles of cryptography. Since its creation in 2008, Bitcoin has had a fairly tumultuous existence that limited its adoption. Wide price fluctuations occurred as the appeal of free money by running a piece of computer software drove people to purchase expensive hardware, and high-profile scandals cast Bitcoin as an unstable currency well-suited primarily for purchasing illicit materials. Consumer confidence in the currency was extremely low, and businesses were extremely hesitant to accept a currency that could easily lose half (or more) of its value overnight. However, recent years have seen the currency begin to stabilize as businesses and mainstream investors have begun to accept and support it. Alternative cryptocurrencies, titled "altcoins," have also been created to fill market niches that Bitcoin was not addressing. Governmental intervention, a concern of many following the currency, has been surprisingly restrained and has actually contributed to its stability. The future of Bitcoin looks very bright as it carries the dream of the alternative currency forward into the 21st century.
ContributorsReardon, Brett (Co-author) / Burke, Ryan (Co-author) / Happel, Stephen (Thesis director) / Boyes, William (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The goal of our study is to identify socio-economic risk factors for depressive disorder and poor mental health by statistically analyzing survey data from the CDC. The identification of risk groups in a particular demographic could aid in the development of targeted interventions to improve overall quality of mental health in the United States. In our analysis, we studied the influences and correlations of socioeconomic factors that regulate the risk of developing Depressive Disorders and overall poor mental health. Using the statistical software STATA, we ran a regression model of selected independent socio-economic variables with the dependent mental health variables. The independent variables of the statistical model include Income, Race, State, Age, Marital Status, Sex, Education, BMI, Smoker Status, and Alcohol Consumption. Once the regression coefficients were found, we illustrated the data in graphs and heat maps to qualitatively provide visuals of the prevalence of depression in the U.S. demography. Our study indicates that the low-income and under-educated populations who are everyday smokers, obese, and/or are in divorced or separated relationships should be of main concern. A suggestion for mental health organizations would be to support counseling and therapeutic efforts as secondary care for those in smoking cessation programs, weight management programs, marriage counseling, or divorce assistance group. General improvement in alleviating poverty and increasing education could additionally show progress in counter-acting the prevalence of depressive disorder and also improve overall mental health. The identification of these target groups and socio-economic risk factors are critical in developing future preventative measures.
ContributorsGrassel, Samuel (Co-author) / Choueiri, Alexi (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Holter, Michael (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This thesis examines youth with mental health disorders in the juvenile justice system, and when their stories intersect with media coverage. In addition to exploring the history of juvenile justice in the United States, it reviews the relationship with youths who have a mental health disorder within the system, criticism of media’s coverage on these topics, and expert opinion on how this can be improved. Typically, both print and broadcast media have utilized these stories for sensationalism: slapping these crimes across the front page of the paper, or leading in a broadcast news show. Yet the journalistic responsibility of educating the community is tragically over looked, with these stories adding to the stigma of mental health. With this research, I aim to gather insight on how word choices, details, and story structure can improve daily reporting in a world of tight deadlines and competing interests—moving into a higher-quality news product.
ContributorsClark, Lauren Louise (Author) / McGuire, Tim (Thesis director) / Griller-Clark, Heather (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05