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- All Subjects: Simulation
Description
Mathematical modeling and decision-making within the healthcare industry have given means to quantitatively evaluate the impact of decisions into diagnosis, screening, and treatment of diseases. In this work, we look into a specific, yet very important disease, the Alzheimer. In the United States, Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is the 6th leading cause of death. Diagnosis of AD cannot be confidently confirmed until after death. This has prompted the importance of early diagnosis of AD, based upon symptoms of cognitive decline. A symptom of early cognitive decline and indicator of AD is Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). In addition to this qualitative test, Biomarker tests have been proposed in the medical field including p-Tau, FDG-PET, and hippocampal. These tests can be administered to patients as early detectors of AD thus improving patients’ life quality and potentially reducing the costs of the health structure. Preliminary work has been conducted in the development of a Sequential Tree Based Classifier (STC), which helps medical providers predict if a patient will contract AD or not, by sequentially testing these biomarker tests. The STC model, however, has its limitations and the need for a more complex, robust model is needed. In fact, STC assumes a general linear model as the status of the patient based upon the tests results. We take a simulation perspective and try to define a more complex model that represents the patient evolution in time.
Specifically, this thesis focuses on the formulation of a Markov Chain model that is complex and robust. This Markov Chain model emulates the evolution of MCI patients based upon doctor visits and the sequential administration of biomarker tests. Data provided to create this Markov Chain model were collected by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. The data lacked detailed information of the sequential administration of the biomarker tests and therefore, different analytical approaches were tried and conducted in order to calibrate the model. The resulting Markov Chain model provided the capability to conduct experiments regarding different parameters of the Markov Chain and yielded different results of patients that contracted AD and those that did not, leading to important insights into effect of thresholds and sequence on patient prediction capability as well as health costs reduction.
The data in this thesis was provided from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). ADNI investigators did not contribute to any analysis or writing of this thesis. A list of the ADNI investigators can be found at: http://adni.loni.usc.edu/about/governance/principal-investigators/ .
Specifically, this thesis focuses on the formulation of a Markov Chain model that is complex and robust. This Markov Chain model emulates the evolution of MCI patients based upon doctor visits and the sequential administration of biomarker tests. Data provided to create this Markov Chain model were collected by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. The data lacked detailed information of the sequential administration of the biomarker tests and therefore, different analytical approaches were tried and conducted in order to calibrate the model. The resulting Markov Chain model provided the capability to conduct experiments regarding different parameters of the Markov Chain and yielded different results of patients that contracted AD and those that did not, leading to important insights into effect of thresholds and sequence on patient prediction capability as well as health costs reduction.
The data in this thesis was provided from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). ADNI investigators did not contribute to any analysis or writing of this thesis. A list of the ADNI investigators can be found at: http://adni.loni.usc.edu/about/governance/principal-investigators/ .
ContributorsCamarena, Raquel (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Li, Jing (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Covid-19 is unlike any coronavirus we have seen before, characterized mostly by the ease with which it spreads. This analysis utilizes an SEIR model built to accommodate various populations to understand how different testing and infection rates may affect hospitalization and death. This analysis finds that infection rates have a significant impact on Covid-19 impact regardless of the population whereas the impact that testing rates have in this simulation is not as pronounced. Thus, policy-makers should focus on decreasing infection rates through targeted lockdowns and vaccine rollout to contain the virus, and decrease its spread.
ContributorsShah, Aashney Lalita (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis director) / Candan, Kasim Selcuk (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
Automated driving systems (ADS) have come a long way since their inception. It is clear that these systems rely heavily on stochastic deep learning techniques for perception, planning, and prediction, as it is impossible to construct every possible driving scenario to generate driving policies. Moreover, these systems need to be trained and validated extensively on typical and abnormal driving situations before they can be trusted with human life. However, most publicly available driving datasets only consist of typical driving behaviors. On the other hand, there is a plethora of videos available on the internet that capture abnormal driving scenarios, but they are unusable for ADS training or testing as they lack important information such as camera calibration parameters, and annotated vehicle trajectories. This thesis proposes a new toolbox, DeepCrashTest-V2, that is capable of reconstructing high-quality simulations from monocular dashcam videos found on the internet. The toolbox not only estimates the crucial parameters such as camera calibration, ego-motion, and surrounding road user trajectories but also creates a virtual world in Car Learning to Act (CARLA) using data from OpenStreetMaps to simulate the estimated trajectories. The toolbox is open-source and is made available in the form of a python package on GitHub at https://github.com/C-Aniruddh/deepcrashtest_v2.
ContributorsChandratre, Aniruddh Vinay (Author) / Fainekos, Georgios (Thesis advisor) / Ben Amor, Hani (Thesis advisor) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Research indicates that over 7.7% of adults who seek medical care every year at a hospital report a delay in receiving care, having difficulty receiving care, or being unable to receive care due to long waiting times (Kennedy et al. 2004). This continue to stir the need for researchers to explore ways to extend healthcare services in minimal waiting times. This thesis research utilizes Arena, a discrete event simulation software, to analyze waiting times in a typical hospital setting. It goes on to explore the impact of cross training of hospital personnel in meeting the critical needs of patients while minimizing waiting times. Simulation output data were analyzed, and cross training was found to have significant impact on reducing waiting time when: intake of patients is higher than current (original) arrival rate, intake of appointment patients is highest, or intake of emergency patience is highest of the three patient categories.
ContributorsBusisi, Jeanbat (Author) / Theodore, Pavlic (Thesis director) / Feng, Ju (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Woodland/Alloy Casting, Inc. is an aluminum foundry known for providing high-quality molds to their customers in industries such as aviation, electrical, defense, and nuclear power. However, as the company has grown larger during the past three years, they have begun to struggle with the on-time delivery of their orders. Woodland prides itself on their high-grade process that includes core processing, the molding process, cleaning process, and heat-treat process. To create each mold, it has to flow through each part of the system flawlessly. Throughout this process, significant bottlenecks occur that limit the number of molds leaving the system. To combat this issue, this project uses a simulation of the foundry to test how best to schedule their work to optimize the use of their resources. Simulation can be an effective tool when testing for improvements in systems where making changes to the physical system is too expensive. ARENA is a simulation tool that allows for manipulation of resources and process while also allowing both random and selected schedules to be run through the foundry’s production process. By using an ARENA simulation to test different scheduling techniques, the risk of missing production runs is minimized during the experimental period so that many different options can be tested to see how they will affect the production line. In this project, several feasible scheduling techniques are compared in simulation to determine which schedules allow for the highest number of molds to be completed.
ContributorsAdams, Danielle Renee (Author) / Pavlic, Theodore (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05