Matching Items (4)
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- All Subjects: Simulation
- Genre: Doctoral Dissertation
- Creators: Sarjoughian, Hessam S.
Description
Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The results suggested that, depending on the nature of data, optimal specification of (1) decision rules to select the covariate and its split value in a Classification Tree, (2) the number of covariates randomly sampled for selection, and (3) methods of estimating Random Forests propensity scores could potentially produce an unbiased average treatment effect estimate after propensity scores weighting by the odds adjustment. Compared to the logistic regression estimation model using the true propensity score model, Random Forests had an additional advantage in producing unbiased estimated standard error and correct statistical inference of the average treatment effect. The relationship between the balance on the covariates' means and the bias of average treatment effect estimate was examined both within and between conditions of the simulation. Within conditions, across repeated samples there was no noticeable correlation between the covariates' mean differences and the magnitude of bias of average treatment effect estimate for the covariates that were imbalanced before adjustment. Between conditions, small mean differences of covariates after propensity score adjustment were not sensitive enough to identify the optimal Random Forests model specification for propensity score analysis.
ContributorsCham, Hei Ning (Author) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Stephen G (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) has received significant attention in recent years as major computer companies such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Salesforce are adopting this new approach to develop software and systems. Cloud computing is a computing infrastructure to enable rapid delivery of computing resources as a utility in a dynamic, scalable, and virtualized manner. Computer Simulations are widely utilized to analyze the behaviors of software and test them before fully implementations. Simulation can further benefit SaaS application in a cost-effective way taking the advantages of cloud such as customizability, configurability and multi-tendency.
This research introduces Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Software-as-Service in Cloud. The researches cover the following topics: service modeling, policy specification, code generation, dynamic simulation, timing, event and log analysis. Moreover, the framework integrates current advantages of cloud: configurability, Multi-Tenancy, scalability and recoverability.
The following chapters are provided in the architecture:
Multi-Tenancy Simulation Software-as-a-Service.
Policy Specification for MTA simulation environment.
Model Driven PaaS Based SaaS modeling.
Dynamic analysis and dynamic calibration for timing analysis.
Event-driven Service-Oriented Simulation Framework.
LTBD: A Triage Solution for SaaS.
This research introduces Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Software-as-Service in Cloud. The researches cover the following topics: service modeling, policy specification, code generation, dynamic simulation, timing, event and log analysis. Moreover, the framework integrates current advantages of cloud: configurability, Multi-Tenancy, scalability and recoverability.
The following chapters are provided in the architecture:
Multi-Tenancy Simulation Software-as-a-Service.
Policy Specification for MTA simulation environment.
Model Driven PaaS Based SaaS modeling.
Dynamic analysis and dynamic calibration for timing analysis.
Event-driven Service-Oriented Simulation Framework.
LTBD: A Triage Solution for SaaS.
ContributorsLi, Wu (Author) / Tsai, Wei-Tek (Thesis advisor) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Committee member) / Ye, Jieping (Committee member) / Xue, Guoliang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is the process of subjecting a product to stress conditions (temperatures, voltage, pressure etc.) in excess of its normal operating levels to accelerate failures. Product failure typically results from multiple stresses acting on it simultaneously. Multi-stress factor ALTs are challenging as they increase the number of experiments due to the stress factor-level combinations resulting from the increased number of factors. Chapter 2 provides an approach for designing ALT plans with multiple stresses utilizing Latin hypercube designs that reduces the simulation cost without loss of statistical efficiency. A comparison to full grid and large-sample approximation methods illustrates the approach computational cost gain and flexibility in determining optimal stress settings with less assumptions and more intuitive unit allocations.
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
ContributorsNasir, Ehab (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Computational models for relatively complex systems are subject to many difficulties, among which is the ability for the models to be discretely understandable and applicable to specific problem types and their solutions. This demands the specification of a dynamic system as a collection of models, including metamodels. In this context, new modeling approaches and tools can help provide a richer understanding and, therefore, the development of sophisticated behavior in system dynamics. From this vantage point, an activity specification is proposed as a modeling approach based on a time-based discrete event system abstraction. Such models are founded upon set-theoretic principles and methods for modeling and simulation with the intent of making them subject to specific and profound questions for user-defined experiments.
Because developing models is becoming more time-consuming and expensive, some research has focused on the acquisition of concrete means targeted at the early stages of component-based system analysis and design. The model-driven architecture (MDA) framework provides some means for the behavioral modeling of discrete systems. The development of models can benefit from simplifications and elaborations enabled by the MDA meta-layers, which is essential for managing model complexity. Although metamodels pose difficulties, especially for developing complex behavior, as opposed to structure, they are advantageous and complementary to formal models and concrete implementations in programming languages.
The developed approach is focused on action and control concepts across the MDA meta-layers and is proposed for the parallel Discrete Event System Specification (P-DEVS) formalism. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity meta-models are used with syntax and semantics that conform to the DEVS formalism and its execution protocol. The notions of the DEVS component and state are used together according to their underlying system-theoretic foundation. A prototype tool supporting activity modeling was developed to demonstrate the degree to which action-based behavior can be modeled using the MDA and DEVS. The parallel DEVS, as a formal approach, supports identifying the semantics of the UML activities. Another prototype was developed to create activity models and support their execution with the DEVS-Suite simulator, and a set of prototypical multiprocessor architecture model specifications were designed, simulated, and analyzed.
Because developing models is becoming more time-consuming and expensive, some research has focused on the acquisition of concrete means targeted at the early stages of component-based system analysis and design. The model-driven architecture (MDA) framework provides some means for the behavioral modeling of discrete systems. The development of models can benefit from simplifications and elaborations enabled by the MDA meta-layers, which is essential for managing model complexity. Although metamodels pose difficulties, especially for developing complex behavior, as opposed to structure, they are advantageous and complementary to formal models and concrete implementations in programming languages.
The developed approach is focused on action and control concepts across the MDA meta-layers and is proposed for the parallel Discrete Event System Specification (P-DEVS) formalism. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity meta-models are used with syntax and semantics that conform to the DEVS formalism and its execution protocol. The notions of the DEVS component and state are used together according to their underlying system-theoretic foundation. A prototype tool supporting activity modeling was developed to demonstrate the degree to which action-based behavior can be modeled using the MDA and DEVS. The parallel DEVS, as a formal approach, supports identifying the semantics of the UML activities. Another prototype was developed to create activity models and support their execution with the DEVS-Suite simulator, and a set of prototypical multiprocessor architecture model specifications were designed, simulated, and analyzed.
ContributorsAlshareef, Abdurrahman (Author) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Thesis advisor) / Fainekos, Georgios (Committee member) / Lee, Joohyung (Committee member) / Zhao, Ming (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019