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Description
With the increase in computing power and availability of data, there has never been a greater need to understand data and make decisions from it. Traditional statistical techniques may not be adequate to handle the size of today's data or the complexities of the information hidden within the data. Thus knowledge discovery by machine learning techniques is necessary if we want to better understand information from data. In this dissertation, we explore the topics of asymmetric loss and asymmetric data in machine learning and propose new algorithms as solutions to some of the problems in these topics. We also studied variable selection of matched data sets and proposed a solution when there is non-linearity in the matched data. The research is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the problem of asymmetric loss. A proposed asymmetric support vector machine (aSVM) is used to predict specific classes with high accuracy. aSVM was shown to produce higher precision than a regular SVM. The second part addresses asymmetric data sets where variables are only predictive for a subset of the predictor classes. Asymmetric Random Forest (ARF) was proposed to detect these kinds of variables. The third part explores variable selection for matched data sets. Matched Random Forest (MRF) was proposed to find variables that are able to distinguish case and control without the restrictions that exists in linear models. MRF detects variables that are able to distinguish case and control even in the presence of interaction and qualitative variables.
ContributorsKoh, Derek (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is the process of subjecting a product to stress conditions (temperatures, voltage, pressure etc.) in excess of its normal operating levels to accelerate failures. Product failure typically results from multiple stresses acting on it simultaneously. Multi-stress factor ALTs are challenging as they increase the number of experiments due to the stress factor-level combinations resulting from the increased number of factors. Chapter 2 provides an approach for designing ALT plans with multiple stresses utilizing Latin hypercube designs that reduces the simulation cost without loss of statistical efficiency. A comparison to full grid and large-sample approximation methods illustrates the approach computational cost gain and flexibility in determining optimal stress settings with less assumptions and more intuitive unit allocations.
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
ContributorsNasir, Ehab (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
No-confounding designs (NC) in 16 runs for 6, 7, and 8 factors are non-regular fractional factorial designs that have been suggested as attractive alternatives to the regular minimum aberration resolution IV designs because they do not completely confound any two-factor interactions with each other. These designs allow for potential estimation of main effects and a few two-factor interactions without the need for follow-up experimentation. Analysis methods for non-regular designs is an area of ongoing research, because standard variable selection techniques such as stepwise regression may not always be the best approach. The current work investigates the use of the Dantzig selector for analyzing no-confounding designs. Through a series of examples it shows that this technique is very effective for identifying the set of active factors in no-confounding designs when there are three of four active main effects and up to two active two-factor interactions.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
ContributorsKrishnamoorthy, Archana (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning of the relevant patterns This dissertation proposes TS representations and methods for supervised TS analysis. The approaches combine new representations that handle translations and dilations of patterns with bag-of-features strategies and tree-based ensemble learning. This provides flexibility in handling time-warped patterns in a computationally efficient way. The ensemble learners provide a classification framework that can handle high-dimensional feature spaces, multiple classes and interaction between features. The proposed representations are useful for classification and interpretation of the TS data of varying complexity. The first contribution handles the problem of time warping with a feature-based approach. An interval selection and local feature extraction strategy is proposed to learn a bag-of-features representation. This is distinctly different from common similarity-based time warping. This allows for additional features (such as pattern location) to be easily integrated into the models. The learners have the capability to account for the temporal information through the recursive partitioning method. The second contribution focuses on the comprehensibility of the models. A new representation is integrated with local feature importance measures from tree-based ensembles, to diagnose and interpret time intervals that are important to the model. Multivariate time series (MTS) are especially challenging because the input consists of a collection of TS and both features within TS and interactions between TS can be important to models. Another contribution uses a different representation to produce computationally efficient strategies that learn a symbolic representation for MTS. Relationships between the multiple TS, nominal and missing values are handled with tree-based learners. Applications such as speech recognition, medical diagnosis and gesture recognition are used to illustrate the methods. Experimental results show that the TS representations and methods provide better results than competitive methods on a comprehensive collection of benchmark datasets. Moreover, the proposed approaches naturally provide solutions to similarity analysis, predictive pattern discovery and feature selection.
ContributorsBaydogan, Mustafa Gokce (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Atkinson, Robert (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
One of the greatest 21st century challenges is meeting the needs of a growing world population expected to increase 35% by 2050 given projected trends in diets, consumption and income. This in turn requires a 70-100% improvement on current production capability, even as the world is undergoing systemic climate pattern changes. This growth not only translates to higher demand for staple products, such as rice, wheat, and beans, but also creates demand for high-value products such as fresh fruits and vegetables (FVs), fueled by better economic conditions and a more health conscious consumer. In this case, it would seem that these trends would present opportunities for the economic development of environmentally well-suited regions to produce high-value products. Interestingly, many regions with production potential still exhibit a considerable gap between their current and ‘true’ maximum capability, especially in places where poverty is more common. Paradoxically, often high-value, horticultural products could be produced in these regions, if relatively small capital investments are made and proper marketing and distribution channels are created. The hypothesis is that small farmers within local agricultural systems are well positioned to take advantage of existing sustainable and profitable opportunities, specifically in high-value agricultural production. Unearthing these opportunities can entice investments in small farming development and help them enter the horticultural industry, thus expand the volume, variety and/or quality of products available for global consumption. In this dissertation, the objective is three-fold: (1) to demonstrate the hidden production potential that exist within local agricultural communities, (2) highlight the importance of supply chain modeling tools in the strategic design of local agricultural systems, and (3) demonstrate the application of optimization and machine learning techniques to strategize the implementation of protective agricultural technologies.
As part of this dissertation, a yield approximation method is developed and integrated with a mixed-integer program to estimate a region’s potential to produce non-perennial, vegetable items. This integration offers practical approximations that help decision-makers identify technologies needed to protect agricultural production, alter harvesting patterns to better match market behavior, and provide an analytical framework through which external investment entities can assess different production options.
As part of this dissertation, a yield approximation method is developed and integrated with a mixed-integer program to estimate a region’s potential to produce non-perennial, vegetable items. This integration offers practical approximations that help decision-makers identify technologies needed to protect agricultural production, alter harvesting patterns to better match market behavior, and provide an analytical framework through which external investment entities can assess different production options.
ContributorsFlores, Hector M. (Author) / Villalobos, Rene (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Parker, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017