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Description
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is the process of subjecting a product to stress conditions (temperatures, voltage, pressure etc.) in excess of its normal operating levels to accelerate failures. Product failure typically results from multiple stresses acting on it simultaneously. Multi-stress factor ALTs are challenging as they increase the number of experiments due to the stress factor-level combinations resulting from the increased number of factors. Chapter 2 provides an approach for designing ALT plans with multiple stresses utilizing Latin hypercube designs that reduces the simulation cost without loss of statistical efficiency. A comparison to full grid and large-sample approximation methods illustrates the approach computational cost gain and flexibility in determining optimal stress settings with less assumptions and more intuitive unit allocations.
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
ContributorsNasir, Ehab (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
No-confounding designs (NC) in 16 runs for 6, 7, and 8 factors are non-regular fractional factorial designs that have been suggested as attractive alternatives to the regular minimum aberration resolution IV designs because they do not completely confound any two-factor interactions with each other. These designs allow for potential estimation of main effects and a few two-factor interactions without the need for follow-up experimentation. Analysis methods for non-regular designs is an area of ongoing research, because standard variable selection techniques such as stepwise regression may not always be the best approach. The current work investigates the use of the Dantzig selector for analyzing no-confounding designs. Through a series of examples it shows that this technique is very effective for identifying the set of active factors in no-confounding designs when there are three of four active main effects and up to two active two-factor interactions.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
ContributorsKrishnamoorthy, Archana (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Supply chains are increasingly complex as companies branch out into newer products and markets. In many cases, multiple products with moderate differences in performance and price compete for the same unit of demand. Simultaneous occurrences of multiple scenarios (competitive, disruptive, regulatory, economic, etc.), coupled with business decisions (pricing, product introduction, etc.) can drastically change demand structures within a short period of time. Furthermore, product obsolescence and cannibalization are real concerns due to short product life cycles. Analytical tools that can handle this complexity are important to quantify the impact of business scenarios/decisions on supply chain performance. Traditional analysis methods struggle in this environment of large, complex datasets with hundreds of features becoming the norm in supply chains. We present an empirical analysis framework termed Scenario Trees that provides a novel representation for impulse and delayed scenario events and a direction for modeling multivariate constrained responses. Amongst potential learners, supervised learners and feature extraction strategies based on tree-based ensembles are employed to extract the most impactful scenarios and predict their outcome on metrics at different product hierarchies. These models are able to provide accurate predictions in modeling environments characterized by incomplete datasets due to product substitution, missing values, outliers, redundant features, mixed variables and nonlinear interaction effects. Graphical model summaries are generated to aid model understanding. Models in complex environments benefit from feature selection methods that extract non-redundant feature subsets from the data. Additional model simplification can be achieved by extracting specific levels/values that contribute to variable importance. We propose and evaluate new analytical methods to address this problem of feature value selection and study their comparative performance using simulated datasets. We show that supply chain surveillance can be structured as a feature value selection problem. For situations such as new product introduction, a bottom-up approach to scenario analysis is designed using an agent-based simulation and data mining framework. This simulation engine envelopes utility theory, discrete choice models and diffusion theory and acts as a test bed for enacting different business scenarios. We demonstrate the use of machine learning algorithms to analyze scenarios and generate graphical summaries to aid decision making.
ContributorsShinde, Amit (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Villalobos, Rene (Committee member) / Janakiram, Mani (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Functional or dynamic responses are prevalent in experiments in the fields of engineering, medicine, and the sciences, but proposals for optimal designs are still sparse for this type of response. Experiments with dynamic responses result in multiple responses taken over a spectrum variable, so the design matrix for a dynamic response have more complicated structures. In the literature, the optimal design problem for some functional responses has been solved using genetic algorithm (GA) and approximate design methods. The goal of this dissertation is to develop fast computer algorithms for calculating exact D-optimal designs.
First, we demonstrated how the traditional exchange methods could be improved to generate a computationally efficient algorithm for finding G-optimal designs. The proposed two-stage algorithm, which is called the cCEA, uses a clustering-based approach to restrict the set of possible candidates for PEA, and then improves the G-efficiency using CEA.
The second major contribution of this dissertation is the development of fast algorithms for constructing D-optimal designs that determine the optimal sequence of stimuli in fMRI studies. The update formula for the determinant of the information matrix was improved by exploiting the sparseness of the information matrix, leading to faster computation times. The proposed algorithm outperforms genetic algorithm with respect to computational efficiency and D-efficiency.
The third contribution is a study of optimal experimental designs for more general functional response models. First, the B-spline system is proposed to be used as the non-parametric smoother of response function and an algorithm is developed to determine D-optimal sampling points of a spectrum variable. Second, we proposed a two-step algorithm for finding the optimal design for both sampling points and experimental settings. In the first step, the matrix of experimental settings is held fixed while the algorithm optimizes the determinant of the information matrix for a mixed effects model to find the optimal sampling times. In the second step, the optimal sampling times obtained from the first step is held fixed while the algorithm iterates on the information matrix to find the optimal experimental settings. The designs constructed by this approach yield superior performance over other designs found in literature.
First, we demonstrated how the traditional exchange methods could be improved to generate a computationally efficient algorithm for finding G-optimal designs. The proposed two-stage algorithm, which is called the cCEA, uses a clustering-based approach to restrict the set of possible candidates for PEA, and then improves the G-efficiency using CEA.
The second major contribution of this dissertation is the development of fast algorithms for constructing D-optimal designs that determine the optimal sequence of stimuli in fMRI studies. The update formula for the determinant of the information matrix was improved by exploiting the sparseness of the information matrix, leading to faster computation times. The proposed algorithm outperforms genetic algorithm with respect to computational efficiency and D-efficiency.
The third contribution is a study of optimal experimental designs for more general functional response models. First, the B-spline system is proposed to be used as the non-parametric smoother of response function and an algorithm is developed to determine D-optimal sampling points of a spectrum variable. Second, we proposed a two-step algorithm for finding the optimal design for both sampling points and experimental settings. In the first step, the matrix of experimental settings is held fixed while the algorithm optimizes the determinant of the information matrix for a mixed effects model to find the optimal sampling times. In the second step, the optimal sampling times obtained from the first step is held fixed while the algorithm iterates on the information matrix to find the optimal experimental settings. The designs constructed by this approach yield superior performance over other designs found in literature.
ContributorsSaleh, Moein (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Millennials are the group of people that make up the newer generation of the world's population and they are constantly surrounded by technology, as well as known for having different values than the previous generations. Marketers have to adapt to newer ways to appeal to millennials and secure their loyalty since millennials are always on the lookout for the next best thing and will "trade up for brands that matter, but trade down when brand value is weak", it poses a challenge for the marketing departments of companies (Fromm, J. & Parks, J.). The airline industry is one of the fastest growing sectors as "the total number of people flying on U.S. airlines will increase from 745.5 million in 2014 and grow to 1.15 billion in 2034," which shows that airlines have a wider population to market to, and will need to improve their marketing strategies to differentiate from competitors (Power). The financial sector also has a difficult time reaching out to millennials because "millennials are hesitant to take financial risks," as well as downing in college debt, while not making as much money as previous generations (Fromm, J. & Parks, J.). By looking into the marketing strategies, specifically using social media platforms, of the two industries, an understanding can be gathered of what millennials are attracted to. Along with looking at the marketing strategies of financial and airline industries, I looked at the perspectives of these industries in different countries, which is important to look at because then we can see if the values of millennials vary across different cultures. Countries chosen for research to further examine their cultural differences in terms of marketing practices are the United States and England. The main form of marketing that was used for this research were social media accounts of the companies, and seeing how they used the social networking platforms to reach and engage with their consumers, especially with those of the millennial generation. The companies chosen for further research for the airline industry from England were British Airways, EasyJet, and Virgin Atlantic, while for the U.S. Delta Airlines, Inc., Southwest Airlines, and United were chosen. The companies chosen to further examine within the finance industry from England include Barclay's, HSBC, and Lloyd's Bank, while for the U.S. the banks selected were Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. The companies for this study were chosen because they are among the top five in their industry, as well as all companies that I have had previous interactions with. It was meant to see what the companies at the top of the industry were doing that set them apart from their competitors in terms of social media marketing content and see if there were features they lacked that could be changed or improvements they could make. A survey was also conducted to get a better idea of the attitudes and behaviors of millennials when it comes to the airline and finance industries, as well as towards social media marketing practices.
ContributorsPathak, Krisha Hemanshu (Author) / Kumar, Ajith (Thesis director) / Arora, Hina (Committee member) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Hugh Downs School of Human Communication (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This thesis, through a thorough literature and content review, discusses the various ways that data analytics and supply chain management intersect. Both fields have been around for a while, but are incredibly aided by the information age we live in today. Today's ERP systems and supply chain software packages use advanced analytic techniques and algorithms to optimize every aspect of supply chain management. This includes aspects like inventory optimization, portfolio management, network design, production scheduling, fleet planning, supplier evaluation, and others. The benefit of these analytic techniques is a reduction in costs as well as an improvement in overall supply chain performance and efficiencies. The paper begins with a short historical context on business analytics and optimization then moves on to the impact and application of analytics in the supply chain today. Following that the implications of big data are explored, along with how a company might begin to take advantage of big data and what challenges a firm may face along the way. The current tools used by supply chain professionals are then discussed. There is then a section on the most up and coming technologies; the internet of things, blockchain technology, additive manufacturing (3D printing), and machine learning; and how those technologies may further enable the successful use of analytics to improve supply chain management. Companies that do take advantage of analytics in their supply chains are sure to maintain a competitive advantage over those firms that fail to do so.
ContributorsCotton, Ryan Aaron (Author) / Taylor, Todd (Thesis director) / Arora, Hina (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Revenue management is at the core of airline operations today; proprietary algorithms and heuristics are used to determine prices and availability of tickets on an almost-continuous basis. While initial developments in revenue management were motivated by industry practice, later developments overcoming fundamental omissions from earlier models show significant improvement, despite their focus on relatively esoteric aspects of the problem, and have limited potential for practical use due to computational requirements. This dissertation attempts to address various modeling and computational issues, introducing realistic choice-based demand revenue management models. In particular, this work introduces two optimization formulations alongside a choice-based demand modeling framework, improving on the methods that choice-based revenue management literature has created to date, by providing sensible models for airline implementation.
The first model offers an alternative formulation to the traditional choice-based revenue management problem presented in the literature, and provides substantial gains in expected revenue while limiting the problem’s computational complexity. Making assumptions on passenger demand, the Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (CMIP) provides a significantly more compact formulation when compared to other choice-based revenue management models, and consistently outperforms previous models.
Despite the prevalence of choice-based revenue management models in literature, the assumptions made on purchasing behavior inhibit researchers to create models that properly reflect passenger sensitivities to various ticket attributes, such as price, number of stops, and flexibility options. This dissertation introduces a general framework for airline choice-based demand modeling that takes into account various ticket attributes in addition to price, providing a framework for revenue management models to relate airline companies’ product design strategies to the practice of revenue management through decisions on ticket availability and price.
Finally, this dissertation introduces a mixed integer non-linear programming formulation for airline revenue management that accommodates the possibility of simultaneously setting prices and availabilities on a network. Traditional revenue management models primarily focus on availability, only, forcing secondary models to optimize prices. The Price-dynamic Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (PCMIP) eliminates this two-step process, aligning passenger purchase behavior with revenue management policies, and is shown to outperform previously developed models, providing a new frontier of research in airline revenue management.
The first model offers an alternative formulation to the traditional choice-based revenue management problem presented in the literature, and provides substantial gains in expected revenue while limiting the problem’s computational complexity. Making assumptions on passenger demand, the Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (CMIP) provides a significantly more compact formulation when compared to other choice-based revenue management models, and consistently outperforms previous models.
Despite the prevalence of choice-based revenue management models in literature, the assumptions made on purchasing behavior inhibit researchers to create models that properly reflect passenger sensitivities to various ticket attributes, such as price, number of stops, and flexibility options. This dissertation introduces a general framework for airline choice-based demand modeling that takes into account various ticket attributes in addition to price, providing a framework for revenue management models to relate airline companies’ product design strategies to the practice of revenue management through decisions on ticket availability and price.
Finally, this dissertation introduces a mixed integer non-linear programming formulation for airline revenue management that accommodates the possibility of simultaneously setting prices and availabilities on a network. Traditional revenue management models primarily focus on availability, only, forcing secondary models to optimize prices. The Price-dynamic Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (PCMIP) eliminates this two-step process, aligning passenger purchase behavior with revenue management policies, and is shown to outperform previously developed models, providing a new frontier of research in airline revenue management.
ContributorsClough, Michael C (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Jacobs, Timothy (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016