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- Creators: Zhu, Qigui
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Description
This study investigates how well prominent behavioral theories from social psychology explain green purchasing behavior (GPB). I assess three prominent theories in terms of their suitability for GPB research, their attractiveness to GPB empiricists, and the strength of their empirical evidence when applied to GPB. First, a qualitative assessment of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Norm Activation Theory (NAT), and Value-Belief-Norm Theory (VBN) is conducted to evaluate a) how well the phenomenon and concepts in each theory match the characteristics of pro-environmental behavior and b) how well the assumptions made in each theory match common assumptions made in purchasing theory. Second, a quantitative assessment of these three theories is conducted in which r2 values and methodological parameters (e.g., sample size) are collected from a sample of 21 empirical studies on GPB to evaluate the accuracy and generalize-ability of empirical evidence. In the qualitative assessment, the results show each theory has its advantages and disadvantages. The results also provide a theoretically-grounded roadmap for modifying each theory to be more suitable for GPB research. In the quantitative assessment, the TPB outperforms the other two theories in every aspect taken into consideration. It proves to 1) create the most accurate models 2) be supported by the most generalize-able empirical evidence and 3) be the most attractive theory to empiricists. Although the TPB establishes itself as the best foundational theory for an empiricist to start from, it's clear that a more comprehensive model is needed to achieve consistent results and improve our understanding of GPB. NAT and the Theory of Interpersonal Behavior (TIB) offer pathways to extend the TPB. The TIB seems particularly apt for this endeavor, while VBN does not appear to have much to offer. Overall, the TPB has already proven to hold a relatively high predictive value. But with the state of ecosystem services continuing to decline on a global scale, it's important for models of GPB to become more accurate and reliable. Better models have the capacity to help marketing professionals, product developers, and policy makers develop strategies for encouraging consumers to buy green products.
ContributorsRedd, Thomas Christopher (Author) / Dooley, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Basile, George (Committee member) / Darnall, Nicole (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used in the chemical process sector to compare the environmental merits of different product or process alternatives. One of the tasks that involves much time and cost in LCA studies is the specification of the exact materials and processes modeled which has limited its widespread application. To overcome this, researchers have recently created probabilistic underspecification as an LCA streamlining method, which uses a structured data classification system to enable an LCA modeler to specify materials and processes in a less precise manner. This study presents a statistical procedure to understand when streamlined LCA methods can be used, and what their impact on overall model uncertainty is. Petrochemicals and polymer product systems were chosen to examine the impacts of underspecification and mis-specification applied to LCA modeling. Ecoinvent database, extracted using GaBi software, was used for data pertaining to generic crude oil refining and polymer manufacturing modules. By assessing the variation in LCA results arising out of streamlined materials classification, the developed statistics estimate the amount of overall error incurred by underspecifying and mis-specifying material impact data in streamlined LCA. To test the impact of underspecification and mis-specification at the level of a product footprint, case studies of HDPE containers and aerosol air fresheners were conducted. Results indicate that the variation in LCA results decreases as the specificity of materials increases. For the product systems examined, results show that most of the variability in impact assessment is due to the differences in the regions from which the environmental impact datasets were collected; the lower levels of categorization of materials have relatively smaller influence on the variance. Analyses further signify that only certain environmental impact categories viz. global warming potential, freshwater eutrophication, freshwater ecotoxicity, human toxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity are affected by geographic variations. Outcomes for the case studies point out that the error in the estimation of global warming potential increases as the specificity of a component of the product decreases. Fossil depletion impact estimates remain relatively robust to underspecification. Further, the results of LCA are much more sensitive to underspecification of materials and processes than mis-specification.
ContributorsMurali, Ashwin Krishna (Author) / Dooley, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Dai, Lenore (Thesis advisor) / Nielsen, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Cavitation erosion is a significant cause of wear in marine components, such as impellers, propellers or rudders. While the erosion process has been widely studied on metals, the effect of cavitation on polymers is not well-understood. The stress response in metals differs greatly from that of polymers, e.g. rate and temperature effects are far more important, thus damage and wear mechanisms of polymers under cavitating flows are significantly different. In this work, heat-driven failure caused by viscous dissipation and void nucleation resulting from tensile stresses arising from stress wave reflections are investigated as two possible material failure mechanisms.
As a first step in developing a fundamental understanding of the cavitation erosion process on polymer surfaces, simulations are performed of the collapse of individual bubbles against a compliant surface e.g. metallic substrates with polyurea coatings. The surface response of collapse-driven impact loads is represented by a idealized, time-dependent, Gaussian pressure distribution on the surface. A two-dimensional distribution of load radii and durations is considered corresponding to characteristic of cavitating flows accelerated erosion experiments. Finite element simulations are performed to fit a response curve that relates the loading parameters to the energy dissipated in the coating and integrated with collapse statistics to generate an expected heat input into the coating.
The impulsive pressure, which is generated due to bubble collapse, impacts the material and generates intense shock waves. The stress waves within the material reflects by interaction with the substrate. A transient region of high tensile stress is produced by the interaction of these waves. Simulations suggests that maximum hydrostatic tension which cause failure of polyurea layer is observed in thick coating. Also, the dissipated viscous energy and corresponding temperature rise in a polyurea is calculated, and it is concluded that temperature has influence on deformation.
As a first step in developing a fundamental understanding of the cavitation erosion process on polymer surfaces, simulations are performed of the collapse of individual bubbles against a compliant surface e.g. metallic substrates with polyurea coatings. The surface response of collapse-driven impact loads is represented by a idealized, time-dependent, Gaussian pressure distribution on the surface. A two-dimensional distribution of load radii and durations is considered corresponding to characteristic of cavitating flows accelerated erosion experiments. Finite element simulations are performed to fit a response curve that relates the loading parameters to the energy dissipated in the coating and integrated with collapse statistics to generate an expected heat input into the coating.
The impulsive pressure, which is generated due to bubble collapse, impacts the material and generates intense shock waves. The stress waves within the material reflects by interaction with the substrate. A transient region of high tensile stress is produced by the interaction of these waves. Simulations suggests that maximum hydrostatic tension which cause failure of polyurea layer is observed in thick coating. Also, the dissipated viscous energy and corresponding temperature rise in a polyurea is calculated, and it is concluded that temperature has influence on deformation.
ContributorsPanwar, Ajay (Author) / Oswald, Jay (Thesis advisor) / Dooley, Kevin (Committee member) / Chen, Kangping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description摘要
当前中国农村集体经济呈现出后劲不足、区域失衡等问题。在此背景下，如何破解集体经济发展困境、实现其从梯度到均衡的演进成为学术领域关注的热点。本文梳理总结了国内外集体经济的相关研究成果，阐述了主要涉及的基础概念、理论和方法模型；以2008~2015年无锡市滨湖区92个村为研究样本，分析了该区域集体经济的发展现状和演变进程；构建面板回归模型，探索了该区域集体经济发展的驱动因素与分布不平衡性；并从空间关联视角切入，探索了驱动因素的溢出效应；最后基于研究结果提出对策建议。主要结论如下：
（1）2008~2015年，92个村的村级集体经济发展整体呈现上升趋势，但地区间的贫富差距明显；2008年、2011年和2015年92个村按村级集体经济总收入可划分为高、中、低3类，并且在不同时段，各等级间的村级集体单位会相互迁移；集体经济收入呈现明显的右偏分布，尖峰厚尾的特征显著。随着时间的推移，集体经济发展出现了“双峰趋同”的现象。
（2）普通面板回归显示，物质资本、经济工作能力、科技进步对于村级集体经济发展有正向的依次减弱的影响，人口数量的影响为负；面板分位数回归显示，随着分位数水平的提高，物质资本系数先上升、后下降再上升；经济工作能力系数逐渐减小；人口规模系数先下降后上升；科技进步系数波动上升。
（3）空间计量结果显示，各变量对于村级集体经济发展具有一定的溢出效应，其中，物质资本的溢出效应为正（不显著），经济工作能力的溢出效应为正（显著），人口因素的溢出效应为负（不显著），科技进步的溢出效应为正（显著）。
本文的创新之处在于使用较难获取的2008-2015年92个村面板数据进行回归，相比于截面数据，更准确地测度了各要素对集体经济的真实影响；将空间关联因素纳入研究视域，探究了村级集体经济驱动因素的空间溢出效应。
当前中国农村集体经济呈现出后劲不足、区域失衡等问题。在此背景下，如何破解集体经济发展困境、实现其从梯度到均衡的演进成为学术领域关注的热点。本文梳理总结了国内外集体经济的相关研究成果，阐述了主要涉及的基础概念、理论和方法模型；以2008~2015年无锡市滨湖区92个村为研究样本，分析了该区域集体经济的发展现状和演变进程；构建面板回归模型，探索了该区域集体经济发展的驱动因素与分布不平衡性；并从空间关联视角切入，探索了驱动因素的溢出效应；最后基于研究结果提出对策建议。主要结论如下：
（1）2008~2015年，92个村的村级集体经济发展整体呈现上升趋势，但地区间的贫富差距明显；2008年、2011年和2015年92个村按村级集体经济总收入可划分为高、中、低3类，并且在不同时段，各等级间的村级集体单位会相互迁移；集体经济收入呈现明显的右偏分布，尖峰厚尾的特征显著。随着时间的推移，集体经济发展出现了“双峰趋同”的现象。
（2）普通面板回归显示，物质资本、经济工作能力、科技进步对于村级集体经济发展有正向的依次减弱的影响，人口数量的影响为负；面板分位数回归显示，随着分位数水平的提高，物质资本系数先上升、后下降再上升；经济工作能力系数逐渐减小；人口规模系数先下降后上升；科技进步系数波动上升。
（3）空间计量结果显示，各变量对于村级集体经济发展具有一定的溢出效应，其中，物质资本的溢出效应为正（不显著），经济工作能力的溢出效应为正（显著），人口因素的溢出效应为负（不显著），科技进步的溢出效应为正（显著）。
本文的创新之处在于使用较难获取的2008-2015年92个村面板数据进行回归，相比于截面数据，更准确地测度了各要素对集体经济的真实影响；将空间关联因素纳入研究视域，探究了村级集体经济驱动因素的空间溢出效应。
ContributorsJin, Liang (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Anmin (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Qigui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description近些年来，我国城市化进程不断加快，到2020年我国常住人口城镇化率将达到60%左右，户籍人口城镇化率将会达到45%左右。伴随着我国城市化进程的高速推进以及经济水平的不断提高，公共物品及服务的需求程度加大，政府单独出资建设公共项目会导致资金不足、经营管理效率低下等问题。与此同时，我国当前不同层级地方政府的政府性债务都达到了一个非常高的水平，截至2017年末，中国地方政府债务16.47万亿元，债务率（债务余额/综合财力）为76.5%，其中地方负有偿还责任的债务约12.9万亿，地方政府性债务的控制和转化成为经济新常态下重要特征之一。在地方债务压力较大的情况下，PPP将替代土地财政和地方政府融资，为我国新型城镇化建设提供可持续的资金支持，PPP模式成为当前城市建设领域融资的重要选项。
据此，本文基于实证研究方法探讨在债务约束的背景下，在地方政府债务约束下，PPP模式的引入，对城市规划中建设用地面积、人口规划规模与容量、建设用地属性等的城市规划变量的影响；与此同时，考虑到地方政府的政策很大程度上受到是由地方官员，特别是受到作为地方政府党政“一把手”的市委书记和市长的晋升压力和激励的影响，讨论市委书记/市长的晋升压力和激励对PPP模式引入效果的影响。研究发现，在地方政府债务约束下，PPP模式的引入，显著增加城市规划中建设用地面积、人口规划规模与容量、建设用地属性等的城市规划变量；同时，地方政府官员存在利用PPP放大城市建设和规划规模的行为，反映了PPP项目在引入和使用的过程中很大程度上受政府官员的激励的影响。
据此，本文基于实证研究方法探讨在债务约束的背景下，在地方政府债务约束下，PPP模式的引入，对城市规划中建设用地面积、人口规划规模与容量、建设用地属性等的城市规划变量的影响；与此同时，考虑到地方政府的政策很大程度上受到是由地方官员，特别是受到作为地方政府党政“一把手”的市委书记和市长的晋升压力和激励的影响，讨论市委书记/市长的晋升压力和激励对PPP模式引入效果的影响。研究发现，在地方政府债务约束下，PPP模式的引入，显著增加城市规划中建设用地面积、人口规划规模与容量、建设用地属性等的城市规划变量；同时，地方政府官员存在利用PPP放大城市建设和规划规模的行为，反映了PPP项目在引入和使用的过程中很大程度上受政府官员的激励的影响。
ContributorsXu, Ke (Author) / Chen, Pei-Yu (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Qigui (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Xin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Despite significant growth in research about supply chain integration, many questions remain unanswered regarding the path to integration and the benefits that can be accrued. This dissertation examines three aspects of supply chain integration in the health sector, leveraging the healthcare context to extend the theoretical boundaries, as well as applying supply chain knowledge to an industry known to be immature in terms of its supply chain practices.
In the first chapter, a supply chain operating model that breaks away from the traditional healthcare supply chain structures is examined. Consolidated Service Centers (CSCs) embody a shared services strategy, consolidating supply chain functions across multiple hospitals (i.e. horizontal integration) and disintermediating several key roles in healthcare supply chains such as the group purchasing organizations and national distributors. Through case studies, key characteristics of CSCs that enable them to reduce the level of supply chain complexity are examined.
The second chapter investigates buyer-supplier relationships in healthcare (i.e. supplier integration), where a high level of distrust exists between hospitals and their suppliers. This context is leveraged to study both enablers and barriers to buyer-supplier trust. The results suggest that contracting counteracts the negative effects of dependence on trust. Furthermore, the study reveals that hospital buyers may, in some situations, perceive dedicated resource investments made by suppliers as trust barriers, associating such investments with supplier upselling and entrenchment tactics. This runs contrary to how dedicated investments are perceived in most other industries.
In the third chapter, the triadic relationship between the hospital, supplier, and physician is taken into consideration. Given their professional autonomy and power, physicians commonly undermine hospital efforts in supply base rationalization and standardization. This study examines whether physician-hospital integration (i.e. customer integration) can drive physicians towards supply selection practices that align with the hospital’s sourcing strategies and ultimately result in better supply chain performance. This study utilizes theory on agency triads and professionalism and tests hypotheses through a random effects regression model applied to data about hospital financial performance and physician-hospital arrangements.
In the first chapter, a supply chain operating model that breaks away from the traditional healthcare supply chain structures is examined. Consolidated Service Centers (CSCs) embody a shared services strategy, consolidating supply chain functions across multiple hospitals (i.e. horizontal integration) and disintermediating several key roles in healthcare supply chains such as the group purchasing organizations and national distributors. Through case studies, key characteristics of CSCs that enable them to reduce the level of supply chain complexity are examined.
The second chapter investigates buyer-supplier relationships in healthcare (i.e. supplier integration), where a high level of distrust exists between hospitals and their suppliers. This context is leveraged to study both enablers and barriers to buyer-supplier trust. The results suggest that contracting counteracts the negative effects of dependence on trust. Furthermore, the study reveals that hospital buyers may, in some situations, perceive dedicated resource investments made by suppliers as trust barriers, associating such investments with supplier upselling and entrenchment tactics. This runs contrary to how dedicated investments are perceived in most other industries.
In the third chapter, the triadic relationship between the hospital, supplier, and physician is taken into consideration. Given their professional autonomy and power, physicians commonly undermine hospital efforts in supply base rationalization and standardization. This study examines whether physician-hospital integration (i.e. customer integration) can drive physicians towards supply selection practices that align with the hospital’s sourcing strategies and ultimately result in better supply chain performance. This study utilizes theory on agency triads and professionalism and tests hypotheses through a random effects regression model applied to data about hospital financial performance and physician-hospital arrangements.
ContributorsAbdulsalam, Yousef J (Author) / Schneller, Eugene S (Thesis advisor) / Gopalakrishnan, Mohan (Committee member) / Maltz, Arnold (Committee member) / Dooley, Kevin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
While scan-based trading (SBT) is a growing trend in the retail industry, evidence suggests that many SBT initiatives have contributed only to the retailers’ bottom line at the suppliers’ expense. This research attempts to disclose some of the causes of SBT failure as a collaborative inventory management initiative and identify SBT’s integrative potential using both positivistic and normative research methodologies.
In the first chapter, SBT contracts are analyzed through the lens of Agency Theory. By focusing on unique inventory ownership and risks considerations resulting from retailers managing supplier-owned inventory without bearing the cost of inventory shrinkage, the effect of SBT on inventory shrinkage is examined empirically using a data set from a packaged bakery manufacturer. The results show that inventory shrinkage tends to be higher under SBT contracts compared to traditional vendor-managed inventory (VMI) contracts. The study highlights a potential loss in efficiency in food supply chains reflected in higher shrinkage under SBT contracts.
The second chapter aims to identify conditions under which SBT contracts could be mutually beneficial for retailers and suppliers. Using stylized game theoretic models involving a retailer and a supplier of a product with limited shelf life, the study finds that, while inventory shrinkage may be amplified under SBT contracts compared to VMI contracts due to the decreased retailer’s incentive to manage inventory at the store, SBT could help suppliers minimize inventory overage and underage under high demand uncertainty. The integrative potential for SBT contracts, thus, lies in the trade-off between inventory shrinkage and forecasting accuracy.
In the third paper, the role of bargaining power on the performance of SBT contracts is examined. Based on the bargaining literature, it is hypothesized that perceptions of bargaining power can be reshaped in the bargaining process through concession tactics. The results of a negotiation experiment show that, while powerful retailers do tend to have the upper hand in negotiating SBT contracts, weak suppliers could ameliorate or even overcome retailer power by offering services as a concession in a way that the product-service bundle improves the value of their offerings in the eyes of the retailers.
In the first chapter, SBT contracts are analyzed through the lens of Agency Theory. By focusing on unique inventory ownership and risks considerations resulting from retailers managing supplier-owned inventory without bearing the cost of inventory shrinkage, the effect of SBT on inventory shrinkage is examined empirically using a data set from a packaged bakery manufacturer. The results show that inventory shrinkage tends to be higher under SBT contracts compared to traditional vendor-managed inventory (VMI) contracts. The study highlights a potential loss in efficiency in food supply chains reflected in higher shrinkage under SBT contracts.
The second chapter aims to identify conditions under which SBT contracts could be mutually beneficial for retailers and suppliers. Using stylized game theoretic models involving a retailer and a supplier of a product with limited shelf life, the study finds that, while inventory shrinkage may be amplified under SBT contracts compared to VMI contracts due to the decreased retailer’s incentive to manage inventory at the store, SBT could help suppliers minimize inventory overage and underage under high demand uncertainty. The integrative potential for SBT contracts, thus, lies in the trade-off between inventory shrinkage and forecasting accuracy.
In the third paper, the role of bargaining power on the performance of SBT contracts is examined. Based on the bargaining literature, it is hypothesized that perceptions of bargaining power can be reshaped in the bargaining process through concession tactics. The results of a negotiation experiment show that, while powerful retailers do tend to have the upper hand in negotiating SBT contracts, weak suppliers could ameliorate or even overcome retailer power by offering services as a concession in a way that the product-service bundle improves the value of their offerings in the eyes of the retailers.
ContributorsChoi, Min (Author) / Rabinovich, Elliot (Thesis advisor) / Richards, Timothy (Committee member) / Grebitus, Carola (Committee member) / Dooley, Kevin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Firms are increasingly being held accountable for the unsustainable actions of their suppliers. Stakeholders, regulatory agencies, and customers alike are calling for increased levels of transparency and higher standards of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance for suppliers. While it is apparent that supplier performance is important, it remains unclear how the stock market weighs the CSR performance of a supplier relative to that of a focal firm. This dissertation focuses on whether these relative differences exist. In addition to capturing the magnitude of the difference in market impact between focal firm and supplier CSR events; I analyze the ways in which these differences have changed over time. To capture this evolution, CSR events ranging over a period from 1994 to 2013 are examined. This research utilizes an event study methodology in which the announcement of over 2,300 CSR events are identified and analyzed to determine the subsequent stock market reaction. I find that while the market evaluated negative supplier CSR events less harshly than events occurring at the buying firm in the early years of the sample, by the turn of the millennium this “supplier discounting" had disappeared. The analysis is broken down by CSR event "type". Findings demonstrate that negative CSR events, particularly those revolving around worker or customer safety, generate the most significant abnormal return. The findings of this dissertation produce valuable managerial insights along with interpretation. Resources are scarce, and understanding where a firm might best allocate their resources to avoid financial penalties will be valuable information for corporate decision makers. These findings present clear evidence that some of these resources should be allocated to supplier CSR performance, not just towards the CSR performance of the focal firm.
ContributorsRogers, Zachary S (Author) / Carter, Craig (Thesis advisor) / Dooley, Kevin (Committee member) / Singhal, Vinod (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Although many examples have demonstrated the great potential of a human crowd as an alternative supplier in creative problem-solving, empirical evidence shows that the performance of a crowd varies greatly even under similar situations. This phenomenon is defined as the performance variation puzzle in crowdsourcing. Cases suggest that crowd development influences crowd performance, but little research in crowdsourcing literature has examined the issue of crowd development.
This dissertation studies how crowd development impacts crowd performance in crowdsourcing. It first develops a double-funnel framework on crowd development. Based on structural thinking and four crowd development examples, this conceptual framework elaborates different steps of crowd development in crowdsourcing. By doing so, this dissertation partitions a crowd development process into two sub-processes that map out two empirical studies.
The first study examines the relationships between elements of event design and crowd emergence and the mechanisms underlying these relationships. This study takes a strong inference approach and tests whether tournament theory is more applicable than diffusion theory in explaining the relationships between elements of event design and crowd emergence in crowdsourcing. Results show that that neither diffusion theory nor tournament theory fully explains these relationships. This dissertation proposes a contatition (i.e., contagious competition) perspective that incorporates both elements of these two theories to get a full understanding of crowd emergence in crowdsourcing.
The second empirical study draws from innovation search literature and tournament theory to address the performance variation puzzle through analyzing crowd attributes. Results show that neither innovation search perspective nor tournament theory fully explains the relationships between crowd attributes and crowd performance. Based on the research findings, this dissertation discovers a competition-search mechanism beneath the variation of crowd performance in crowdsourcing.
This dissertation makes a few significant contributions. It maps out an emergent process for the first time in supply chain literature, discovers the mechanisms underlying the performance implication of a crowd-development process, and answers a research call on crowd engagement and utilization. Managerial implications for crowd management are also discussed.
This dissertation studies how crowd development impacts crowd performance in crowdsourcing. It first develops a double-funnel framework on crowd development. Based on structural thinking and four crowd development examples, this conceptual framework elaborates different steps of crowd development in crowdsourcing. By doing so, this dissertation partitions a crowd development process into two sub-processes that map out two empirical studies.
The first study examines the relationships between elements of event design and crowd emergence and the mechanisms underlying these relationships. This study takes a strong inference approach and tests whether tournament theory is more applicable than diffusion theory in explaining the relationships between elements of event design and crowd emergence in crowdsourcing. Results show that that neither diffusion theory nor tournament theory fully explains these relationships. This dissertation proposes a contatition (i.e., contagious competition) perspective that incorporates both elements of these two theories to get a full understanding of crowd emergence in crowdsourcing.
The second empirical study draws from innovation search literature and tournament theory to address the performance variation puzzle through analyzing crowd attributes. Results show that neither innovation search perspective nor tournament theory fully explains the relationships between crowd attributes and crowd performance. Based on the research findings, this dissertation discovers a competition-search mechanism beneath the variation of crowd performance in crowdsourcing.
This dissertation makes a few significant contributions. It maps out an emergent process for the first time in supply chain literature, discovers the mechanisms underlying the performance implication of a crowd-development process, and answers a research call on crowd engagement and utilization. Managerial implications for crowd management are also discussed.
ContributorsLiu, Zhongzhi (Author) / Kull, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Dooley, Kevin (Committee member) / Oke, Adegoke (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description应收账款（Accounts Receivable）是企业在正常的经营过程中因销售商品、产品、提供劳务等业务，应向购买单位收取的款项，包括应由购买单位或接受劳务单位负担的税金、代购买方垫付的各种运杂费等。国内的工业制造业，由于产能过剩带来的产需不平衡、市场信誉危机带来的市场不规范以及历史供给关系等诸多问题的影响，形成了以买方市场为主的供需结构关系。企业为了提高资金周转效率、增大市场占有率，往往会选择以信用赊销为主的结算方式，造成应收账款激增。但是，应收账款的激增在提高企业账面利润、降低存货储备的同时，也无形中减少了企业的现金流量，造成企业真实盈利能力下降、偿还债务能力减弱、资金周转效率降低，加大企业经营风险。所以，如何有效管理应收账款，从而增加企业竞争力是每个企业发展过程中的重要课题。应收账款的管理不仅要在形成应收账款之后加大催收力度，形成多种多样、真实有效的回款方式，同时也要在合同签订、执行过程中加强风险管理力度。应收账款的信用风险管理已经成为现代企业管理中不可或缺的一部分。分析卧龙公司应收账款的成因与管理可以发现，赊销形成的应收账款占据极高比例，卧龙公司对于赊销管理缺乏有效的组织结构与保障体系，本研究从销售合同、客户特征属性、客户财务数据角度出发，研究合同条款、客户特征属性、客户财务数据与应收账款是否逾期的关系。研究发现，应收账款逾期的客户，每年的逾期原因都不一样，但是影响逾期的显性因素是很少的，这与电机行业作为传统制造业，受宏观经济周期影响相关，行业形势每年都面临较大的变化，但是另一方面，影响逾期的因素相对少意味着其实还是有办法找到主要原因的，只要可以提前预判出主要因素，并有针对性的采取预防措施，可以一定程度上缓解应收账款逾期的问题。从整体的逾期与否预测的逻辑回归模型看，无论使用单变量筛选的logistic回归模型，还是使用层次分析法确定的logistic回归模型，分类正确率都可以达到70%以上，使用本研究中提炼出来的变量，在历史数据中，模拟预测过程的效果很好，为解决应收账款逾期问题提供了有力的辅助工具，而且，层次分析法充分采纳了团队管理公司多年的经验，变量最后控制在15个以内，能实现与50多个变量类似的效果，甚至更佳，降价了模型维护的经济成本、实际使用的难度，也客观上给带领团队进行尝试提供了信心。本文研究成果可以辅助卧龙集团管理应收账款，为控制风险提供指导，具有一定的实践价值。
ContributorsPang, Xinyuan (Author) / Pei, Ker-Wei (Thesis advisor) / Chang, Chun (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Qigui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022