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The Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation Phase on Arizona Severe Weather

Description
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) consists of a linkage between changes in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the Tropical Pacific. ENSO encompasses three phases: neutral events, warm/El Niño events in which sea-surface temperatures are warmer-than-normal and the pressure gradient decreases across the Equatorial Pacific, and cold/La Niña events…

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) consists of a linkage between changes in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the Tropical Pacific. ENSO encompasses three phases: neutral events, warm/El Niño events in which sea-surface temperatures are warmer-than-normal and the pressure gradient decreases across the Equatorial Pacific, and cold/La Niña events in which Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures are cooler-than-normal and the pressure gradient increases. Previous studies have determined a connection between variations in ENSO phase and weather patterns across the globe, focusing particularly on surface temperature and precipitation patterns in the United States. However, little research exists that attempts to link changes in ENSO phase with severe weather in Arizona. Therefore, in this study, I analyzed how variations in ENSO phase affect the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of four types of severe weather from 1959 to 2016 in Arizona, including a) tornado events, b) severe thunderstorm wind events, c) hail events, and d) heavy rain and flash flood events. I collected data on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a measure of ENSO, as well as storm reports for each severe weather phenomenon dating back to 1959. Then, I analyzed the frequency of each Arizona severe weather event type within each of the twelve annual months and over the entire study period. I also analyzed mean intensity values (Fujita/Enhanced Fujita Scale rating, path width, and path length for tornadoes; hail diameter in millimeters for hail; and wind gust speed for severe thunderstorm wind events) for each severe weather phenomenon, excluding the heavy rain and flash flood events. Finally, I used the Mean Center and Directional Distribution tools in ArcGIS to determine variations in the spatial distribution and mean centers between each ENSO phase for each severe weather event type. I found that ENSO phase, particularly La Niña, does impact the frequency and intensity of tornadoes, hail, thunderstorm wind, and heavy rain/flash flood events in Arizona. However, it appears that ENSO does not affect the spatial distribution of these Arizona severe weather phenomena. These findings attempt to fill in the gap in the literature and could help meteorologists better forecast changes in Arizona severe weather, in turn allowing Arizonans to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of severe weather across the state.
ContributorsGreenwood, Trey Austin (Author) / Cerveny, Randall (Thesis director) / Balling, Robert (Committee member) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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The Effects of Prior Knowledge of Students within Dyads on Learning Outcome

Description
Collaborative learning is a potential technique for teachers to use to meet the diverse learning needs of the students in their classrooms. Previous studies have investigated the contexts in which the benefits of collaborative learning show greater presence. The most important factor found was the quality of the interactions. Studies…

Collaborative learning is a potential technique for teachers to use to meet the diverse learning needs of the students in their classrooms. Previous studies have investigated the contexts in which the benefits of collaborative learning show greater presence. The most important factor found was the quality of the interactions. Studies have suggested that high achieving students are capable of improving the quality of interactions. This bears the question if prior knowledge plays an influence in the learning outcome of students in collaborative learning. Results show that high prior knowledge students do not face a detriment in having low prior knowledge students as a partner comparing to having another high prior knowledge student and that low prior knowledge students show significantly higher learning outcome when partnered with a high prior knowledge partner than with another low prior knowledge student. It is therefore likely that having a high prior knowledge student within a dyad improves the quality of interaction, resulting in greater learning outcome through collaborative learning.
ContributorsKeyvani, Kewmars (Author) / Chi, Michelene (Thesis director) / Wylie, Ruth (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-05
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An Analysis of the Relationship Between Tropospheric Ozone Pollution and Synoptic Conditions in Phoenix, Arizona

Description

High levels of surface ozone pollution have been shown to have adverse effects on human health and our environment. For at least the past decade, ozone concentrations in Phoenix, Arizona have been above the federal health standard, set in place by the Environmental Protection Agency. It is crucial that all…

High levels of surface ozone pollution have been shown to have adverse effects on human health and our environment. For at least the past decade, ozone concentrations in Phoenix, Arizona have been above the federal health standard, set in place by the Environmental Protection Agency. It is crucial that all factors contributing to rising tropospheric ozone levels within the Phoenix metropolitan area are analyzed to better understand this risk for future mitigation efforts. Consequently, the primary objective of this study is specifically to examine meteorological factors' influence on Phoenix’s ground level ozone by comparing days of ozone exceedances with ozone non-exceedances days over the course of 2010-2020. To carry out this research, various weather conditions for both exceedance and non-exceedance ozone days were studied using unpaired Student’s t-tests and Pearson product-moment correlation tests. The results of this study suggest that the most significant factors that are associated with the occurrence of surface ozone exceedances in Phoenix are wind speed and temperature, whereas the least significant variables are wind direction and sky conditions. This indicates that more stable synoptic conditions in which skies are clearer, allowing for higher temperatures and more stagnant air movement, are ideal for ozone production leading to an ozone exceedance. The results from this honors thesis will be useful as it will aid in greater understanding of the relationship between Phoenix’s surface ozone and weather, aiding future ozone forecasting.
ContributorsLeffel, Jessica (Author) / Cerveny, Randall (Thesis director) / Pace, Matthew (Committee member) / Krahenbuhl, Dan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Hugh Downs School of Human Communication (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2022-05
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Weather Habits of the Public

Description

Arizona is a unique state in that rain is not a normal occurrence throughout most of the year (NWS). Arizona averages from less than three months to half a month of measurable precipitation days per year (WRCC). With that, it is important to know the public’s understanding as well as…

Arizona is a unique state in that rain is not a normal occurrence throughout most of the year (NWS). Arizona averages from less than three months to half a month of measurable precipitation days per year (WRCC). With that, it is important to know the public’s understanding as well as their general trend of likeness towards the weather forecasts they receive. A questionnaire was distributed to 426 people in the state of Arizona to review what they understand from the forecasts and what they would like to see on social media and television.
ContributorsHermansen, Alexis Nicole (Author) / Alvarez, Melanie (Thesis director) / Cerveny, Randall (Committee member) / Hondula, David M. (Committee member) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism & Mass Comm (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05