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Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on modern economic growth and structural transformation, in particular touching on the reallocation of labor across industries, occupations, and employment statuses.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
ContributorsVindas Quesada, Alberto José (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The purpose of our research was to develop recommendations and/or strategies for Company A's data center group in the context of the server CPU chip industry. We used data collected from the International Data Corporation (IDC) that was provided by our team coaches, and data that is accessible on the internet. As the server CPU industry expands and transitions to cloud computing, Company A's Data Center Group will need to expand their server CPU chip product mix to meet new demands of the cloud industry and to maintain high market share. Company A boasts leading performance with their x86 server chips and 95% market segment share. The cloud industry is dominated by seven companies Company A calls "The Super 7." These seven companies include: Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. In the long run, the growing market share of the Super 7 could give them substantial buying power over Company A, which could lead to discounts and margin compression for Company A's main growth engine. Additionally, in the long-run, the substantial growth of the Super 7 could fuel the development of their own design teams and work towards making their own server chips internally, which would be detrimental to Company A's data center revenue. We first researched the server industry and key terminology relevant to our project. We narrowed our scope by focusing most on the cloud computing aspect of the server industry. We then researched what Company A has already been doing in the context of cloud computing and what they are currently doing to address the problem. Next, using our market analysis, we identified key areas we think Company A's data center group should focus on. Using the information available to us, we developed our strategies and recommendations that we think will help Company A's Data Center Group position themselves well in an extremely fast growing cloud computing industry.
ContributorsJurgenson, Alex (Co-author) / Nguyen, Duy (Co-author) / Kolder, Sean (Co-author) / Wang, Chenxi (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Management (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Multiple sclerosis is a neurological disease that attacks the nerves in the central nervous system of the brain and spinal cord. Multiple sclerosis is a neurological disease that attacks the nerves in the central nervous system of the brain and spinal cord. The severity of multiple sclerosis varies based on the each person and the progression of the disease. There are roughly 2.5 million people that suffer from this disease that life is changed dramatically from being diagnosed with no main way to ease into adjusting to a new lifestyle. The increase of people that are diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, and with a majority of those people being diagnosed in their early 20’s, there is a need for an application that will help patients manage their health. Multiple sclerosis leads to a lifestyle change, which includes various treatment options as well as routine doctor appointments. The creation of the myMS Specialist application will allow patients with multiple sclerosis to live a more comfortable lifestyle while they easily track and manage their health through their mobile devices. Our application has seven components that all play an important role in adjusting to the new everyday lifestyle for a patient with multiple sclerosis. All seven components are largely intertwined with each other to help patients realize patterns in their diet, sleep, exercise and the weather that causes their symptoms to worsen. Our application not only connects to a patient’s doctor so that there is full access of information at all time to the doctor but provides beneficial research to help further the understanding of multiple sclerosis. This application will be marketed and available for purchase to not only patients but doctors. It is our goal to lessen the burden of a new lifestyle to a patient, create constant communication with one’s doctor and provide beneficial data to researchers.
ContributorsSaenz, Devon (Co-author) / Peterson, Tyler (Co-author) / Chomina-Chavez, Aram (Thesis director) / Staats, Cody (Committee member) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Herberger Institute for Design and the Arts (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Company X has developed RealSenseTM technology, a depth sensing camera that provides machines the ability to capture three-dimensional spaces along with motion within these spaces. The goal of RealSense was to give machines human-like senses, such as knowing how far away objects are and perceiving the surrounding environment. The key issue for Company X is how to commercialize RealSense's depth recognition capabilities. This thesis addresses the problem by examining which markets to address and how to monetize this technology. The first part of the analysis identified potential markets for RealSense. This was achieved by evaluating current markets that could benefit from the camera's gesture recognition, 3D scanning, and depth sensing abilities. After identifying seven industries where RealSense could add value, a model of the available, addressable, and obtainable market sizes was developed for each segment. Key competitors and market dynamics were used to estimate the portion of the market that Company X could capture. These models provided a forecast of the discounted gross profits that could be earned over the next five years. These forecasted gross profits, combined with an examination of the competitive landscape and synergistic opportunities, resulted in the selection of the three segments thought to be most profitable to Company X. These segments are smart home, consumer drones, and automotive. The final part of the analysis investigated entrance strategies. Company X's competitive advantages in each space were found by examining the competition, both for the RealSense camera in general and other technologies specific to each industry. Finally, ideas about ways to monetize RealSense were developed by exploring various revenue models and channels.
ContributorsDunn, Nicole (Co-author) / Boudreau, Thomas (Co-author) / Kinzy, Chris (Co-author) / Radigan, Thomas (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Science (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit substance in the United States with over two million pounds seized annually and with a usage rate estimated at 19.8 million people in 2013 (SAMSHA, 2014). Currently there is a nationwide movement for the legalization of recreational marijuana via referendum at the state level. Three states and the District of Columbia have already adopted amendments legalizing marijuana and over a dozen more currently have pending ballots. This report explores what would be the impact of legalizing marijuana in Arizona through the examination of data from Colorado and other governmental sources. Using a benefit/cost analysis the data is used to determine what the effect the legalization of marijuana would have in Arizona. I next examined the moral arguments for legalization. Finally I propose a recommendation for how the issue of the legalization of recreational marijuana should be approached in Arizona.
ContributorsDiPietro, Samuel Miles (Author) / Kalika, Dale (Thesis director) / Lynk, Myles (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The relationship between the European Union and Britain has been long and contentious. It has been dominated by Britain's skepticism towards the EU and a hesitation to participate in an integrated Europe. This paper outlines the costs and benefits of Britain's membership in three areas: trade and foreign direct investment, financial contributions, and immigration. In addition to analyzing the effect of a British exit in these three areas, alternatives are also discussed.
ContributorsLeon, Monique Briana (Author) / Mendez, Jose (Thesis director) / Kenchington, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
On September 11, 1973, Augusto Pinochet became the leader of Chile after a violent coup d’état, which left the economy in shambles. The previous president and ruling party, Salvador Allende and the Popular Unity coalition respectively, were moving the country towards socialism and in doing so increased the government presence in the economy, nationalized copper and other industries, and redistributed agricultural land. Soon after nationalizing the copper industry, prices fell and the large expenditures being made by the government lead to a recession characterized by shrinking GDP, failing nationalized businesses, US economic sanctions, high inflation, and unfavorable exchange rates. Pinochet turned to the Chicago Boys, Chilean economists educated at the University of Chicago’s School of Economics by Milton Friedman, to formulate an economic plan that would reduce inflation as well as limiting government involvement in the economy. This paper will examine the neoliberal free market principals instituted by the Chicago Boys, the immediate and delayed effects in the Chilean government, and how these principals have been and can be utilized to provide stabilization and growth in other Latin American economies.
ContributorsJohnsen, Kaitlin (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Hobijn, Bart (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The main goal of this study was to understand the awareness of small business owners regarding occupational fraud, meaning fraud committed from within an organization. A survey/questionnaire was used to gather insight into the knowledge and perceptions of small business owners, while also obtaining information about the history of fraud and the internal controls within their business. Twenty-four owners of businesses with less than 100 employees participated in the study. The results suggest that small business owners overestimate their knowledge regarding internal controls and occupational fraud, while also underestimating the risk of fraud within their own business. In fact, 92% of participants were not at all familiar with the popular Internal Control \u2014 Integrated Framework published by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission. The results also show that small business owners tend to overestimate the protection provided by their currently implemented controls in regard to their risk of fraud. Overall, through continued knowledge of internal controls and occupational fraud, business owners can better protect their businesses from the risk of occupational fraud by increasing their awareness of fraud.
ContributorsDennis, Lauren Nicole (Author) / Orpurt, Steven (Thesis director) / Munshi, Perseus (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Yearly changes in the consumer price index are used to adjust social security benefits in order to keep the purchasing power of social security beneficiaries the same. Currently, social security benefits are adjusted using a fixed-weighted price index that reflects the purchasing patterns of workers. However, some believe that a price index that captures the spending habits of the elderly should adjust monthly social security benefits, while others argue that a chain-weighted price index is a more accurate indexation technique. This report finds that if an elderly or chain-weighted price index were implemented this year, there would not be a significant change in the projected insolvency of the social security trust fund, but there could be a substantial decrease in the social security trust fund's yearly cash-flow deficit. Therefore, changing the indexation of social security benefits should not be seen as a short-term solvency fix. Instead, adjusting monthly social security benefits should be about keeping the purchasing power of beneficiaries relatively the same.
ContributorsScobas, Peter Jonathan (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis director) / Smith, Kerry (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
The direction of artificial intelligence is one of the most important and popular topics of technological development. Both experts and the average person agree AI will continue to play a massive role in virtually all industries. Despite this shared belief, AI has continued to progress at a limited rate, limited by conventional schools of thought and mathematical approaches. In order for truly intelligent technology to exist, one must succeed in modeling the human brain as a system, not its functionalities. Conventional AI attempts to account for all the variables and permutations of a given situation rather than creating a closed system that can implicitly utilize data to form completely unique conclusions without human intervention. By bridging the gap between mathematics, biology, and neurology, Igni will become the world's first hyper intelligent artificial intelligence system. In order to understand Igni, one must first understand the progression of conventional AI and its limitations. Then they can understanding the major components of Igni and how this technology overcomes conventional limitations in its journey to revolutionize most industries.
ContributorsYu, Vince Winghang (Co-author) / Patel, Ishan (Co-author) / Dawson, Gregory (Thesis director) / Garverick, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12