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- Genre: Academic theses
Description
Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic. Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential implication of their decisions and strategies prior to their implementation. Previous work focuses on the mechanisms underlying the different epidemic waves observed in Mexico during the novel swine origin influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 and showed extensions of classical models in epidemiology by adding temporal variations in different parameters that are likely to change during the time course of an epidemic, such as, the influence of media, social distancing, school closures, and how vaccination policies may affect different aspects of the dynamics of an epidemic. This current work further examines the influence of different factors considering the randomness of events by adding stochastic processes to meta-population models. I present three different approaches to compare different stochastic methods by considering discrete and continuous time. For the continuous time stochastic modeling approach I consider the continuous-time Markov chain process using forward Kolmogorov equations, for the discrete time stochastic modeling I consider stochastic differential equations using Wiener's increment and Poisson point increments, and also I consider the discrete-time Markov chain process. These first two stochastic modeling approaches will be presented in a one city and two city epidemic models using, as a base, our deterministic model. The last one will be discussed briefly on a one city SIS and SIR-type model.
ContributorsCruz-Aponte, Maytee (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen A. (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Camacho, Erika T. (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This study evaluates two photovoltaic (PV) power plants based on electrical performance measurements, diode checks, visual inspections and infrared scanning. The purpose of this study is to measure degradation rates of performance parameters (Pmax, Isc, Voc, Vmax, Imax and FF) and to identify the failure modes in a "hot-dry desert" climatic condition along with quantitative determination of safety failure rates and reliability failure rates. The data obtained from this study can be used by module manufacturers in determining the warranty limits of their modules and also by banks, investors, project developers and users in determining appropriate financing or decommissioning models. In addition, the data obtained in this study will be helpful in selecting appropriate accelerated stress tests which would replicate the field failures for the new modules and would predict the lifetime for new PV modules. The study was conducted at two, single axis tracking monocrystalline silicon (c-Si) power plants, Site 3 and Site 4c of Salt River Project (SRP). The Site 3 power plant is located in Glendale, Arizona and the Site 4c power plant is located in Mesa, Arizona both considered a "hot-dry" field condition. The Site 3 power plant has 2,352 modules (named as Model-G) which was rated at 250 kW DC output. The mean and median degradation of these 12 years old modules are 0.95%/year and 0.96%/year, respectively. The major cause of degradation found in Site 3 is due to high series resistance (potentially due to solder-bond thermo-mechanical fatigue) and the failure mode is ribbon-ribbon solder bond failure/breakage. The Site 4c power plant has 1,280 modules (named as Model-H) which provide 243 kW DC output. The mean and median degradation of these 4 years old modules are 0.96%/year and 1%/year, respectively. At Site 4c, practically, none of the module failures are observed. The average soiling loss is 6.9% in Site 3 and 5.5% in Site 4c. The difference in soiling level is attributed to the rural and urban surroundings of these two power plants.
ContributorsMallineni, Jaya Krishna (Author) / Govindasamy, Tamizhmani (Thesis advisor) / Devarajan, Srinivasan (Committee member) / Narciso, Macia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The explicit role of soil organisms in shaping soil health, rates of pedogenesis, and resistance to erosion has only just recently begun to be explored in the last century. However, much of the research regarding soil biota and soil processes is centered on maintaining soil fertility (e.g., plant nutrient availability) and soil structure in mesic- and agro- ecosystems. Despite the empirical and theoretical strides made in soil ecology over the last few decades, questions regarding ecosystem function and soil processes remain, especially for arid areas. Arid areas have unique ecosystem biogeochemistry, decomposition processes, and soil microbial responses to moisture inputs that deviate from predictions derived using data generated in more mesic systems. For example, current paradigm predicts that soil microbes will respond positively to increasing moisture inputs in a water-limited environment, yet data collected in arid regions are not congruent with this hypothesis. The influence of abiotic factors on litter decomposition rates (e.g., photodegradation), litter quality and availability, soil moisture pulse size, and resulting feedbacks on detrital food web structure must be explicitly considered for advancing our understanding of arid land ecology. However, empirical data coupling arid belowground food webs and ecosystem processes are lacking. My dissertation explores the resource controls (soil organic matter and soil moisture) on food web network structure, size, and presence/absence of expected belowground trophic groups across a variety of sites in Arizona.
ContributorsWyant, Karl Arthur (Author) / Sabo, John L (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James J (Committee member) / Childers, Daniel L. (Committee member) / Hall, Sharon J (Committee member) / Stromberg, Juliet C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
A robust, fast and accurate protection system based on pilot protection concept was developed previously and a few alterations in that algorithm were made to make it faster and more reliable and then was applied to smart distribution grids to verify the results for it. The new 10 sample window method was adapted into the pilot protection program and its performance for the test bed system operation was tabulated. Following that the system comparison between the hardware results for the same algorithm and the simulation results were compared. The development of the dual slope percentage differential method, its comparison with the 10 sample average window pilot protection system and the effects of CT saturation on the pilot protection system are also shown in this thesis. The implementation of the 10 sample average window pilot protection system is done to multiple distribution grids like Green Hub v4.3, IEEE 34, LSSS loop and modified LSSS loop. Case studies of these multi-terminal model are presented, and the results are also shown in this thesis. The result obtained shows that the new algorithm for the previously proposed protection system successfully identifies fault on the test bed and the results for both hardware and software simulations match and the response time is approximately less than quarter of a cycle which is fast as compared to the present commercial protection system and satisfies the FREEDM system requirement.
ContributorsIyengar, Varun (Author) / Karady, George G. (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Holbert, Keith E. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
GaAs-based solar cells have attracted much interest because of their high conversion efficiencies of ~28% under one sun illumination. The main carrier recombination mechanisms in the GaAs-based solar cells are surface recombination, radiative recombination and non-radiative recombination. Photon recycling reduces the effect of radiative recombination and is an approach to obtain the device performance described by detailed balance theory. The photon recycling model has been developed and was applied to investigate the loss mechanisms in the state-of-the-art GaAs-based solar cell structures using PC1D software. A standard fabrication process of the GaAs-based solar cells is as follows: wafer preparation, individual cell isolation by mesa, n- and p-type metallization, rapid thermal annealing (RTA), cap layer etching, and anti-reflection coating (ARC). The growth rate for GaAs-based materials is one of critical factors to determine the cost for the growth of GaAs-based solar cells. The cost for fabricating GaAs-based solar cells can be reduced if the growth rate is increased without degrading the crystalline quality. The solar cell wafers grown at different growth rates of 14 μm/hour and 55 μm/hour were discussed in this work. The structural properties of the wafers were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) to identify the crystalline quality, and then the as-grown wafers were fabricated into solar cell devices under the same process conditions. The optical and electrical properties such as surface reflection, external quantum efficiency (EQE), dark I-V, Suns-Voc, and illuminated I-V under one sun using a solar simulator were measured to compare the performances of the solar cells with different growth rates. Some simulations in PC1D have been demonstrated to investigate the reasons of the different device performances between fast growth and slow growth structures. A further analysis of the minority carrier lifetime is needed to investigate into the difference in device performances.
ContributorsZhang, Chaomin (Author) / Honsberg, Christiana (Thesis advisor) / Goodnick, Stephen (Committee member) / Faleev, Nikolai (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Solar energy is a promising alternative for addressing the world's current and future energy requirements in a sustainable way. Because solar irradiation is intermittent, it is necessary to store this energy in the form of a fuel so it can be used when required. The light-driven splitting of water into oxygen and hydrogen (a useful chemical fuel) is a fascinating theoretical and experimental challenge that is worth pursuing because the advance of the knowledge that it implies and the availability of water and sunlight. Inspired by natural photosynthesis and building on previous work from our laboratory, this dissertation focuses on the development of water-splitting dye-sensitized photoelectrochemical tandem cells (WSDSPETCs). The design, synthesis, and characterization of high-potential porphyrins and metal-free phthalocyanines with phosphonic anchoring groups are reported. Photocurrents measured for WSDSPETCs made with some of these dyes co-adsorbed with molecular or colloidal catalysts on TiO2 electrodes are reported as well. To guide in the design of new molecules we have used computational quantum chemistry extensively. Linear correlations between calculated frontier molecular orbital energies and redox potentials were built and tested at multiple levels of theory (from semi-empirical methods to density functional theory). Strong correlations (with r2 values > 0.99) with very good predictive abilities (rmsd < 50 mV) were found when using density functional theory (DFT) combined with a continuum solvent model. DFT was also used to aid in the elucidation of the mechanism of the thermal relaxation observed for the charge-separated state of a molecular triad that mimics the photo-induced proton coupled electron transfer of the tyrosine-histidine redox relay in the reaction center of Photosystem II. It was found that the inclusion of explicit solvent molecules, hydrogen bonded to specific sites within the molecular triad, was essential to explain the observed thermal relaxation. These results are relevant for both advancing the knowledge about natural photosynthesis and for the future design of new molecules for WSDSPETCs.
ContributorsMéndez-Hernández, Dalvin D (Author) / Moore, Ana L (Thesis advisor) / Mujica, Vladimiro (Thesis advisor) / Gust, Devens J. (Committee member) / Gould, Ian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Foraging has complex effects on whole-organism homeostasis, and there is considerable evidence that foraging behavior is influenced by both environmental factors (e.g., food availability, predation risk) and the physiological condition of an organism. The optimization of foraging behavior to balance costs and benefits is termed state-dependent foraging (SDF) while behavior that seeks to protect assets of fitness is termed the asset protection principle (APP). A majority of studies examining SDF have focused on the role that energy balance has on the foraging of organisms with high metabolism and high energy demands ("high-energy systems" such as endotherms). In contrast, limited work has examined whether species with low energy use ("low-energy systems" such as vertebrate ectotherms) use an SDF strategy. Additionally, there is a paucity of evidence demonstrating how physiological and environmental factors other than energy balance influence foraging behavior (e.g. hydration state and free-standing water availability). Given these gaps in our understanding of SDF behavior and the APP, I examined the state-dependency and consequences of foraging in a low-energy system occupying a resource-limited environment - the Gila monster (Heloderma suspectum, Cope 1869). In contrast to what has been observed in a wide variety of taxa, I found that Gila monsters do not use a SDF strategy to manage their energy reserves and that Gila monsters do not defend their energetic assets. However, hydration state and free-standing water availability do affect foraging behavior of Gila monsters. Additionally, as Gila monsters become increasingly dehydrated, they reduce activity to defend hydration state. The SDF behavior of Gila monsters appears to be largely driven by the fact that Gila monsters must separately satisfy energy and water demands with food and free-standing water, respectively, in conjunction with the timescale within which Gila monsters balance their energy and water budgets (supra-annually versus annually, respectively). Given these findings, the impact of anticipated changes in temperature and rainfall patterns in the Sonoran Desert are most likely going to pose their greatest risks to Gila monsters through the direct and indirect effects on water balance.
ContributorsWright, Christian (Author) / Denardo, Dale F. (Thesis advisor) / Harrison, Jon (Committee member) / McGraw, Kevin (Committee member) / Sullivan, Brian (Committee member) / Wolf, Blair (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Consideration of both biological and human-use dynamics in coupled social-ecological systems is essential for the success of interventions such as marine reserves. As purely human institutions, marine reserves have no direct effects on ecological systems. Consequently, the success of a marine reserve depends on managers` ability to alter human behavior in the direction and magnitude that supports reserve objectives. Further, a marine reserve is just one component in a larger coupled social-ecological system. The social, economic, political, and biological landscape all determine the social acceptability of a reserve, conflicts that arise, how the reserve interacts with existing fisheries management, accuracy of reserve monitoring, and whether the reserve is ultimately able to meet conservation and fishery enhancement goals. Just as the social-ecological landscape is critical at all stages for marine reserve, from initial establishment to maintenance, the reserve in turn interacts with biological and human use dynamics beyond its borders. Those interactions can lead to the failure of a reserve to meet management goals, or compromise management goals outside the reserve. I use a bio-economic model of a fishery in a spatially patchy environment to demonstrate how the pre-reserve fisheries management strategy determines the pattern of fishing effort displacement once the reserve is established, and discuss the social, political, and biological consequences of different patterns for the reserve and the fishery. Using a stochastic bio-economic model, I demonstrate how biological and human use connectivity can confound the accurate detection of reserve effects by violating assumptions in the quasi-experimental framework. Finally, I examine data on recreational fishing site selection to investigate changes in response to the announcement of enforcement of a marine reserve in the Gulf of California, Mexico. I generate a scale of fines that would fully or partially protect the reserve, providing a data-driven way for managers to balance biological and socio-economic goals. I suggest that natural resource managers consider human use dynamics with the same frequency, rigor, and tools as they do biological stocks.
ContributorsFujitani, Marie (Author) / Abbott, Joshua (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Thesis advisor) / Gerber, Leah (Committee member) / Anderies, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Solar power generation is the most promising technology to transfer energy consumption reliance from fossil fuel to renewable sources. Concentrated solar power generation is a method to concentrate the sunlight from a bigger area to a smaller area. The collected sunlight is converted more efficiently through two types of technologies: concentrated solar photovoltaics (CSPV) and concentrated solar thermal power (CSTP) generation. In this thesis, these two technologies were evaluated in terms of system construction, performance characteristics, design considerations, cost benefit analysis and their field experience. The two concentrated solar power generation systems were implemented with similar solar concentrators and solar tracking systems but with different energy collecting and conversion components: the CSPV system uses high efficiency multi-junction solar cell modules, while the CSTP system uses a boiler -turbine-generator setup. The performances are calibrated via the experiments and evaluation analysis.
ContributorsJin, Zhilei (Author) / Hui, Yu (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Rodriguez, Armando (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
As an evolutionary force, hybridization outcomes include introgression, admixture, speciation, and reproductive isolation. While hybridization has been studied in several primates, the marmoset genus Callithrix is an important, but little studied example of Neotropical hybridization. Varying degrees of reproductive isolation exist between Callithrix species, and hybridization occurs at species borders or regions containing introduced and native species. Interbreeding between Callithrix species carries important implications for biodiversity and genetic integrity within the genus. However, species origins and levels of genetic admixture in marmoset hybrid zones are generally unknown, and few population genetic studies of individual Callithrix species exist. Using the mitochondrial control region and 44 microsatellite markers, this work explored the genetic diversity and species origins of two C. penicillata and C. jacchus hybrid zones, as well as genetic diversity and divergence in the parental species. Both marker types showed that C. penicillata is more genetically diverse than C. jacchus. Based on mtDNA, C. jacchus seems to have experienced a past population expansion and C. penicillata evolved under constant population size. The data revealed the existence of a previously undocumented natural hybrid zone along the São Francisco River in NE Brazil and confirmed species origins of an anthropogenic zone in Rio de Janeiro state. The data also showed much lower levels of admixture and genetic diversity within the natural hybrid zone than in the anthropogenic zone. Further, the data suggested that the São Francisco River is an important geographic barrier to gene flow in the natural hybrid zone. On the other hand, admixture patterns within the anthropogenic hybrid zone suggested collapse of reproductive barriers, and the formation of a hybrid marmoset swarm. Thus, this work suggested different evolutionary dynamics in anthropogenic vs. natural animal hybrid zones. Restriction Associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) identified a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms within C. jacchus and C. penicillata genomes. These preliminary data were used to measure intraspecific genomic diversity and interspecific divergence. In the future, RADseq will be used to study genus-wide diversity of Callithrix species, examine past and present marmoset demographic history, and applied to the evolutionary study of marmoset hybridization.
ContributorsMalukiewicz, Joanna (Author) / Stone, Anne C. (Thesis advisor) / Nash, Leanne (Committee member) / Rosenberg, Michael (Committee member) / Hedrick, Phil (Committee member) / Ruiz-Miranda, Carlo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013