Matching Items (15)
Filtering by
- All Subjects: Economics
- All Subjects: blockchain
- Creators: Goegan, Brian
- Member of: Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
Description
This paper explores the history of sovereign debt default in developing economies and attempts to highlight the mistakes and accomplishments toward achieving debt sustainability. In the past century, developing economies have received considerable investment due to higher returns and a degree of disregard for the risks accompanying these investments. As the former Citibank chairman, Walter Wriston articulated, "Countries don't go bust" (This Time is Different, 51). Still, unexpected negative externalities have shattered this idea as the majority of developing economies follow a cyclical pattern of default. As coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, sovereign governments that fall into this continuous cycle have become known as serial defaulters. Most developed markets have not defaulted since World War II, thus escaping this persistent trap. Still, there have been developing economies that have been able to transition out of serial defaulting. These economies are able to leverage debt to compound growth without incurring the protracted consequences of a default. Although the cases are few, we argue that developing markets such as Chile, Mexico, Russia, and Uruguay have been able to escape this vicious cycle. Thus, our research indicates that collaborative debt restructurings coupled with long term economic policies are imperative to transitioning out of debt intolerance and into a sustainable debt position. Successful economies are able to leverage debt to create strong foundational growth rather than gambling with debt in the hopes of achieving rapid catch- up growth.
ContributorsPitt, Ryan (Co-author) / Martinez, Nick (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Silverman, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
This paper analyzes responses to a survey using a modified fourfold pattern of preference to determine if implicit information, once made explicit, is practically significant in nudging irrational decision makers towards more rational decisions. Respondents chose between two scenarios and an option for indifference for each of the four questions from the fourfold pattern with expected value being implicit information. Then respondents were asked familiarity with expected value and given the same four questions again but with the expected value for each scenario then explicitly given. Respondents were asked to give feedback if their answers had changed and if the addition of the explicit information was the reason for that change. Results found the addition of the explicit information in the form of expected value to be practically significant with ~90% of respondents who changed their answers giving that for the reason. In the implicit section of the survey, three out of four of the questions had a response majority of lower expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In the explicit section of the survey, all four questions achieved a response majority of higher expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In moving from the implicit to the explicit section, for each question, the scenario with lower expected value experienced a decrease in percentage of responses, and the scenario with higher expected value and indifference between the scenarios both experienced an increase in percentage of responses.
ContributorsJohnson, Matthew (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Foster, William (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
A global trend towards cashlessness following the increase in technological advances in financial transactions lends way to a discussion of its various impacts on society. As part of this discussion, it is important to consider how this trend influences crime rates. The purpose of this project is to specifically investigate the relationship between a cashless society and the robbery rate. Using data collected from the World Bank’s Global Financial Inclusions Index and the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, we implemented a multilinear regression to observe this relationship across countries (n = 29). We aimed to do this by regressing the robbery rate on cashlessness and controlling for other related variables, such as gross domestic product and corruption. We found that as a country becomes more cashless, the robbery rate decreases (β = -677.8379, p = 0.071), thus providing an incentive for countries to join this global trend. We also conducted tests for heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. Overall, our results indicate that a reduction in the amount of cash circulating within a country negatively impacts robbery rates.
ContributorsChoksi, Aashini S (Co-author) / Elliott, Keeley (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This study examines the economic impact of the opioid crisis in the United States. Primarily testing the years 2007-2018, I gathered data from the Census Bureau, Centers for Disease Control, and Kaiser Family Foundation in order to examine the relative impact of a one dollar increase in GDP per Capita on the death rates caused by opioids. By implementing a fixed-effects panel data design, I regressed deaths on GDP per Capita while holding the following constant: population, U.S. retail opioid prescriptions per 100 people, annual average unemployment rate, percent of the population that is Caucasian, and percent of the population that is male. I found that GDP per Capita and opioid related deaths are negatively correlated, meaning that with every additional person dying from opioids, GDP per capita decreases. The finding of this research is important because opioid overdose is harmful to society, as U.S. life expectancy is consistently dropping as opioid death rates rise. Increasing awareness on this topic can help prevent misuse and the overall reduction in opioid related deaths.
ContributorsRavi, Ritika Lisa (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Hill, John (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014), voter behavior can be described by a mathematical model. Voters assign scores to candidates based on both policy and non-policy considerations, then voters then decide which candidate they support based on which has a higher candidate score. The traditional assumption that most of the population will vote is replaced by a function describing the probability of voting based on candidate scores assigned by individual voters. If the voter's likelihood of voting is not certain, but rather modelled by a sigmoid curve, it has radical implications on party decisions and actions taken during an election cycle. The model also includes a significant interaction term between the candidate scores and the differential between the scores which enhances the Downsian model. The thesis is proposed in a similar manner to Downs' original presentation, including several allegorical and hypothetical examples of the model in action. The results of the model reveal that single issue voters can have a significant impact on election outcomes, and that the weight of non-policy considerations is high enough that political parties would spend large sums of money on campaigning. Future research will include creating an experiment to verify the interaction terms, as well as adjusting the model for individual costs so that more empirical analysis may be completed.
ContributorsCoulter, Jarod Maxwell (Author) / Foster, William (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Gendered products are prevalent in the modern consumer products market. This paper provides historical context for the change in the consumer products market which started as a genderless product market and shifted to a female consumer-centric market reflecting the economic needs of the United States through World War I and II. This female consumer-centric market results from the rise of consumer research and many household products are created to satisfy female consumer preferences. But as the consumer demographics change with more women entering the labor force, the types of products being sold change to appeal to the increasing number of male consumers who begin shopping for themselves. This increase in male products is what leads to the booming men's personal care products market that we see today. With an increase in gendered products, there has also been an increase in the number of backlash companies face for creating specific gendered products. This paper outlines the history of gendered products and the potential future of products in the United States.
ContributorsLavergne, Lisa (Author) / Foster, William (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / The Design School (Contributor) / Herberger Institute for Design and the Arts (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This thesis will look into the cryptocurrency Basic Attention Token (BAT) and the browser they partnered with, Brave, to innovate the way that digital marketing dollars are spent. They believe that their browser and cryptocurrency will be able to remove inefficiencies the digital marketing world is full of, and also giving some power to users with their data. The vision of this team is to create a marketing agreement with users that makes it so the marketing space they offer is a verified real individual without compromising this person's user data to large firms and keeps all information stored locally. We will cover the international landscape, BAT and Brave from a branding perspective, and get into some research into interest in adoption.
ContributorsPenny, Troy Lyall (Author) / Kristofferson, Kirk (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The FIFA World Cup is one of the most anticipated, inspiring, and intense sporting events in the world. Soccer has integrated itself not only in sports circles, but also in politics, commerce, and society as a whole. The sport has about two hundred million active players and is still growing, especially in areas such as North America and Asia. As of mid-2007, FIFA’s membership included 208-member associations, making it not only one of the largest and most powerful sports governing bodies, but also one of the most popular in the world.
Since 1930—with the exception of the break for World War II—every four years, the world’s best national teams face off in a soccer tournament. The last two tournaments hosted by South Africa in 2010 and Brazil in 2014 will be the emphasis of this paper. Each tournament featured the thirty-two countries and captured a television audience of over three billion people throughout the month-long tournament, one billion of which tuned in for the final. For comparison, the Super Bowl XLIX where the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks 28 to 24 was the most watched event in United States’ history with a viewership of 114.4 million people.
Countries spend years planning and preparing to win a bid to host one of these mega events. Bids are often times awarded eight to twelve years in advance. There has been a recent trend of developing countries hosting the FIFA World Cups and the future bids already awarded follow that trend. Many people ask the question of whether all the money spent on infrastructure, construction, and tourism to host this tournament and gain international exposure are really worth it? Simply put, the 2010 FIFA World Cup was valuable to South Africa while the 2014 FIFA World Cup was not worth the costs to Brazil.
Since 1930—with the exception of the break for World War II—every four years, the world’s best national teams face off in a soccer tournament. The last two tournaments hosted by South Africa in 2010 and Brazil in 2014 will be the emphasis of this paper. Each tournament featured the thirty-two countries and captured a television audience of over three billion people throughout the month-long tournament, one billion of which tuned in for the final. For comparison, the Super Bowl XLIX where the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks 28 to 24 was the most watched event in United States’ history with a viewership of 114.4 million people.
Countries spend years planning and preparing to win a bid to host one of these mega events. Bids are often times awarded eight to twelve years in advance. There has been a recent trend of developing countries hosting the FIFA World Cups and the future bids already awarded follow that trend. Many people ask the question of whether all the money spent on infrastructure, construction, and tourism to host this tournament and gain international exposure are really worth it? Simply put, the 2010 FIFA World Cup was valuable to South Africa while the 2014 FIFA World Cup was not worth the costs to Brazil.
ContributorsLooney, Andrew (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This thesis project provides a thorough cost-benefit analysis of the golf industry in Arizona. We begin by examining the economic, environmental, and social costs that the industry requires. One of the largest costs of the industry is water consumption. Golf courses in Arizona are currently finding ways to reduce water consumption through various methods, such as turf reduction and increasing the usage of drip irrigation. However, even at current levels of consumption, golf only consumes 1.9% of water in Arizona, compared to the 69% consumed by agriculture. Of the water consumed by the golf industry, 26.3% is wastewater, otherwise known as effluent water. Since the population in Arizona is projected to grow significantly over the next decade, the amount of effluent water produced will also increase. Due to this, we recommend that the golf industry move towards using as much effluent water as possible to conserve clean water sources. Additionally, we examine land allocation and agricultural tradeoffs to the state. Most golf courses are built in urban areas that would not be suitable for agriculture. The same land could be used to build a public park, but this would not provide as many economic benefits to the state. Many courses also act as floodplains which protect the communities surrounding them from flooding. These floodplains have proven to be crucial to protect from occasional flash floods by diverting the excess water away from homes. We also discuss golf's primary social cost in terms of its perception as being a sport played exclusively by privileged and wealthy people. This is proven to be false due to many non-profit organizations centered around the game, as well as municipal courses that provide affordable options for all citizens who want to play. We provide an in-depth analysis of the benefits that the industry provides to the state and its citizens primarily through business and tax revenue, employment, and property values. Including multiplier effects, the golf industry contributed 42,000 full- and part-time jobs, $3.9 billion in sales, $1.5 billion in labor income, and $2.1 billion value added in 2014. An estimated $72 million in state and local taxes were generated from golf facilities alone, without including taxes from indirectly impacted businesses. This tax revenue provides a great benefit to the public sector and increases Arizona's GDP. Also, much of this economic contribution is from the golf tourism industry, which brings new revenue into the state that would otherwise not exist. Golf courses also increase the surrounding real estate prices anywhere from 4.8% to 28%, providing a positive externality to community members in addition to scenic views. Finally, we provide a case study of the Waste Management Phoenix Open (WMO) to illustrate the impact of Arizona's single largest golf event each year. In 2017, the event brought an estimated $389 million into Arizona's economy in one week alone. Also, it regularly hosts massive crowds with a record-breaking 719,179 people attending the event in 2018. The WMO has also taken a "Zero Waste Challenge" to promote eco-friendly and sustainable practices by diverting all of the waste and materials produced by the tournament from landfills. The WMO has been dubbed both the "Greatest Show On Grass" and the "Greenest Show On Grass" due to the entertainment value provided as well as its effort to improve the environment.
ContributorsShershenovich, Andrew (Co-author) / Wilhelm, Spencer (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Van Poucke, Rory (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
In this work we analyze just what makes the topic of third party voting so intriguing to voters and why it is different than voting for one of the major parties in American politics. First, we will discuss briefly the history of politics in America and what makes it exciting. Next, we will outline some of the works by other political and economic professionals such as Hotelling, Lichtman and Rietz. Finally, using the framework described beforehand this paper will analyze the different stances that voters, candidates, and others involved in the political process of voting have regarding the topic of third party voting.
ContributorsMcElroy, Elizabeth (Co-author) / Beardsley, James (Co-author) / Foster, William (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05