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- All Subjects: Climate Change
- Creators: Rogers, Bradley
- Creators: Huang, Huei-Ping
Description
The object of this study was a 26 year old residential Photovoltaic (PV) monocrystalline silicon (c-Si) power plant, called Solar One, built by developer John F. Long in Phoenix, Arizona (a hot-dry field condition). The task for Arizona State University Photovoltaic Reliability Laboratory (ASU-PRL) graduate students was to evaluate the power plant through visual inspection, electrical performance, and infrared thermography. The purpose of this evaluation was to measure and understand the extent of degradation to the system along with the identification of the failure modes in this hot-dry climatic condition. This 4000 module bipolar system was originally installed with a 200 kW DC output of PV array (17 degree fixed tilt) and an AC output of 175 kVA. The system was shown to degrade approximately at a rate of 2.3% per year with no apparent potential induced degradation (PID) effect. The power plant is made of two arrays, the north array and the south array. Due to a limited time frame to execute this large project, this work was performed by two masters students (Jonathan Belmont and Kolapo Olakonu) and the test results are presented in two masters theses. This thesis presents the results obtained on the north array and the other thesis presents the results obtained on the south array. The resulting study showed that PV module design, array configuration, vandalism, installation methods and Arizona environmental conditions have had an effect on this system's longevity and reliability. Ultimately, encapsulation browning, higher series resistance (potentially due to solder bond fatigue) and non-cell interconnect ribbon breakages outside the modules were determined to be the primary causes for the power loss.
ContributorsBelmont, Jonathan (Author) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Henderson, Mark (Committee member) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Potential induced degradation (PID) due to high system voltages is one of the major degradation mechanisms in photovoltaic (PV) modules, adversely affecting their performance due to the combined effects of the following factors: system voltage, superstrate/glass surface conductivity, encapsulant conductivity, silicon nitride anti-reflection coating property and interface property (glass/encapsulant; encapsulant/cell; encapsulant/backsheet). Previous studies carried out at ASU's Photovoltaic Reliability Laboratory (ASU-PRL) showed that only negative voltage bias (positive grounded systems) adversely affects the performance of commonly available crystalline silicon modules. In previous studies, the surface conductivity of the glass surface was obtained using either conductive carbon layer extending from the glass surface to the frame or humidity inside an environmental chamber. This thesis investigates the influence of glass surface conductivity disruption on PV modules. In this study, conductive carbon was applied only on the module's glass surface without extending to the frame and the surface conductivity was disrupted (no carbon layer) at 2cm distance from the periphery of frame inner edges. This study was carried out under dry heat at two different temperatures (60 °C and 85 °C) and three different negative bias voltages (-300V, -400V, and -600V). To replicate closeness to the field conditions, half of the selected modules were pre-stressed under damp heat for 1000 hours (DH 1000) and the remaining half under 200 hours of thermal cycling (TC 200). When the surface continuity was disrupted by maintaining a 2 cm gap from the frame to the edge of the conductive layer, as demonstrated in this study, the degradation was found to be absent or negligibly small even after 35 hours of negative bias at elevated temperatures. This preliminary study appears to indicate that the modules could become immune to PID losses if the continuity of the glass surface conductivity is disrupted at the inside boundary of the frame. The surface conductivity of the glass, due to water layer formation in a humid condition, close to the frame could be disrupted just by applying a water repelling (hydrophobic) but high transmittance surface coating (such as Teflon) or modifying the frame/glass edges with water repellent properties.
ContributorsTatapudi, Sai Ravi Vasista (Author) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Srinivasan, Devarajan (Committee member) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
While the piezoelectric effect has been around for some time, it has only recently caught interest as a potential sustainable energy harvesting device. Piezoelectric energy harvesting has been developed for shoes and panels, but has yet to be integrated into a marketable bicycle tire. For this thesis, the development and feasibility of a piezoelectric tire was done. This includes the development of a circuit that incorporates piezoceramic elements, energy harvesting circuitry, and an energy storage device. A single phase circuit was designed using an ac-dc diode rectifier. An electrolytic capacitor was used as the energy storage device. A financial feasibility was also done to determine targets for manufacturing cost and sales price. These models take into account market trends for high performance tires, economies of scale, and the possibility of government subsidies. This research will help understand the potential for the marketability of a piezoelectric energy harvesting tire that can create electricity for remote use. This study found that there are many obstacles that must be addressed before a piezoelectric tire can be marketed to the general public. The power output of this device is miniscule compared to an alkaline battery. In order for this device to approach the power output of an alkaline battery the weight of the device would also become an issue. Additionally this device is very costly compared to the average bicycle tire. Lastly, this device is extreme fragile and easily broken. In order for this device to become marketable the issues of power output, cost, weight, and durability must all be successfully overcome.
ContributorsMalotte, Christopher (Author) / Madakannan, Arunachalanadar (Thesis advisor) / Srinivasan, Devarajan (Committee member) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The numerical climate models have provided scientists, policy makers and the general public, crucial information for climate projections since mid-20th century. An international effort to compare and validate the simulations of all major climate models is organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which has gone through several phases since 1995 with CMIP5 being the state of the art. In parallel, an organized effort to consolidate all observational data in the past century culminates in the creation of several "reanalysis" datasets that are considered the closest representation of the true observation. This study compared the climate variability and trend in the climate model simulations and observations on the timescales ranging from interannual to centennial. The analysis focused on the dynamic climate quantity of zonal-mean zonal wind and global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), and incorporated multiple datasets from reanalysis and the most recent CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. For the observation, the validation of AAM by the length-of-day (LOD) and the intercomparison of AAM revealed a good agreement among reanalyses on the interannual and the decadal-to-interdecadal timescales, respectively. But the most significant discrepancies among them are in the long-term mean and long-term trend. For the simulations, the CMIP5 models produced a significantly smaller bias and a narrower ensemble spread of the climatology and trend in the 20th century for AAM compared to CMIP3, while CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations consistently produced a positive trend for the 20th and 21st century. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models produced a wide range of the magnitudes of decadal and interdecadal variability of wind component of AAM (MR) compared to observation. The ensemble means of CMIP3 and CMIP5 are not statistically distinguishable for either the 20th- or 21st-century runs. The in-house atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by the sea surface temperature (SST) taken from the CMIP5 simulations as lower boundary conditions were carried out. The zonal wind and MR in the CMIP5 simulations are well simulated in the AGCM simulations. This confirmed SST as an important mediator in regulating the global atmospheric changes due to GHG effect.
ContributorsPaek, Houk (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Adrian, Ronald (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams.
ContributorsKulkarni, Sujay (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Today's energy market is facing large-scale changes that will affect all market players. Near the top of that list is the rapid deployment of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Yet that growing trend will be influenced multiple competing interests between various stakeholders, namely the utility, consumers and technology provides. This study provides a series of analyses--utility-side, consumer-side, and combined analyses--to understand and evaluate the effect of increases in residential solar PV market
penetration. Three urban regions have been selected as study locations--Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle--with simulated load data and solar insolation data at each locality. Various time-of-use pricing schedules are investigated, and the effect of net metering is evaluated to determine the optimal capacity of solar PV and battery storage in a typical residential home. The net residential load profile is scaled to assess system-wide technical and economic figures of merit for the utility with an emphasis on intraday load profiles, ramp rates and electricity sales with increasing solar PV penetration. The combined analysis evaluates the least-cost solar PV system for the consumer and models the associated system-wide effects on the electric grid. Utility revenue was found to drop by 1.2% for every percent PV penetration increase, net metering on a monthly or annual basis improved the cost-effectiveness of solar PV but not battery storage, the removal of net metering policy and usage of an improved the cost-effectiveness of battery storage and increases in solar PV penetration reduced the system load factor. As expected, Phoenix had the most favorable economic scenario for residential solar PV, primarily due to high solar insolation. The study location--solar insolation and load profile--was also found to affect the time of
year at which the largest net negative system load was realized.
penetration. Three urban regions have been selected as study locations--Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle--with simulated load data and solar insolation data at each locality. Various time-of-use pricing schedules are investigated, and the effect of net metering is evaluated to determine the optimal capacity of solar PV and battery storage in a typical residential home. The net residential load profile is scaled to assess system-wide technical and economic figures of merit for the utility with an emphasis on intraday load profiles, ramp rates and electricity sales with increasing solar PV penetration. The combined analysis evaluates the least-cost solar PV system for the consumer and models the associated system-wide effects on the electric grid. Utility revenue was found to drop by 1.2% for every percent PV penetration increase, net metering on a monthly or annual basis improved the cost-effectiveness of solar PV but not battery storage, the removal of net metering policy and usage of an improved the cost-effectiveness of battery storage and increases in solar PV penetration reduced the system load factor. As expected, Phoenix had the most favorable economic scenario for residential solar PV, primarily due to high solar insolation. The study location--solar insolation and load profile--was also found to affect the time of
year at which the largest net negative system load was realized.
ContributorsArnold, Michael (Author) / Johnson, Nathan G (Thesis advisor) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Research was conducted to observe the effect of Number of Transparent Covers and Refractive Index on performance of a domestic Solar Water heating system. The enhancement of efficiency for solar thermal system is an emerging challenge. The knowledge gained from this research will enable to optimize the number of transparent covers and refractive index prior to develop a solar water heater with improved optical efficiency and thermal efficiency for the collector. Numerical simulation is conducted on the performance of the liquid flat plate collector for July 21st and October 21st from 8 am to 4 pm with different refractive index values 1.1, 1.4, 1.7 and different numbers of transparent covers (0-3). In order to accomplish the proposed method the formulation and solutions are executed using simple software MATLAB. The result demonstrates efficiency of flat plate collector increases with the increase of number of covers. The performance of collector decreases when refractive index is higher. The improved useful heat gain is obtained when number of cover used is 3 and refractive index is 1.1.
ContributorsSupriti, Shahina Parvin (Author) / Rogers, Bradley (Thesis advisor) / Madakannan, Arunachalanadar (Committee member) / Rajadas, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Due to decrease in fossil fuel levels, the world is shifting focus towards renewable sources of energy. With an annual average growth rate of 25%, wind is one of the foremost source of harnessing cleaner energy for production of electricity. Wind turbines have been developed to tap power from wind. As a single wind turbine is insufficient, multiple turbines are installed forming a wind farm. Generally, wind farms can have hundreds to thousands of turbines concentrated in a small region. There have been multiple studies centering the influence of weather on such wind farms, but no substantial research focused on how wind farms effect local climate. Technological advances have allowed development of commercial wind turbines with a power output greater than 7.58 MW. This has led to a reduction in required number of turbines and has optimized land usage. Hence, current research considers higher power density compared to previous works that relied on wind farm density of 2 to 4 W/m 2 . Simulations were performed using Weather Research and Forecasting software provided by NCAR. The region of simulation is Southern Oregon, with domains including both onshore and offshore wind farms. Unlike most previous works, where wind farms were considered to be on a flat ground, effects of topography have also been considered here. Study of seasonal effects over wind farms has provided better insight into changes in local wind direction. Analysis of mean velocity difference across wind farms at a height of 10m and 150m gives an understanding of wind velocity profiles. Results presented in this research tends to contradict earlier belief that velocity reduces throughout the farm. Large scale simulations have shown that sometimes, more than 50% of the farm can have an increased wind velocity of up to 1m/s
at an altitude of 10m.
at an altitude of 10m.
ContributorsKadiyala, Yogesh Rao (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Rajagopalan, Jagannathan (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015