Matching Items (11)
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- All Subjects: Climate Change
- Creators: Vivoni, Enrique R
Description
The City of Phoenix Street Transportation Department partnered with the Rob and Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Service at Arizona State University (ASU) and researchers from various ASU schools to evaluate the effectiveness, performance, and community perception of the new pavement coating. The data collection and analysis occurred across multiple neighborhoods and at varying times across days and/or months over the course of one year (July 15, 2020–July 14, 2021), allowing the team to study the impacts of the surface treatment under various weather conditions.
ContributorsMiddel, Ariane (Author) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / Kaloush, Kamil (Author) / Sailor, David (Author) / Medina, Jose R. (Jose Roberto) (Author) / Schneider, Florian (Author) / Ortiz, Johny Cordova (Author) / Campbell, Bill (Author) / Epel, Erin (Contributor) / Rice, Brendan (Contributor) / Garcia, Ruth (Contributor) / Phoenix (Ariz.). Street Transportation Department (Contributor) / City of Phoenix (Funder) / Industrial Development Authority of the County of Maricopa (Funder) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Funder) / Arizona State University. Healthy Urban Environments Program (Contributor)
Created2021-09
Description
Observational evidence is mounting on the reduction of winter precipitation and an earlier snowmelt in the southwestern United States. It is unclear, however, how these changes, along with forest thinning, will impact water supplies due to complexities in the precipitation-streamflow transformation. In this study, I use the Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) to provide insight into the independent and combined effects of climate change and forest cover reduction on the hydrologic response in the Beaver Creek (~1100 km2) of central Arizona. Prior to these experiments, confidence in the hydrologic model is established using snow observations at two stations, two nested streamflow gauges, and estimates of spatially-distributed snow water equivalent over a long-term period (water years 2003-2018). Model forcings were prepared using station observations and radar rainfall estimates in combination with downscaling and bias correction techniques that account for the orographic controls on air temperature and precipitation. Model confidence building showed that tRIBS is able to capture well the variation in snow cover and streamflow during wet and dry years in the 16 year simulation period. The results from this study show that the climate change experiments increased average annual streamflow by 1.5% at +1°C of warming. However, a 28% decrease in streamflow occurs by +6°C of warming as evapotranspiration (ET) increases by 10%. Forest thinning shifted the warming threshold where ET increases reduce streamflow yield until +4°C of warming as compared to no forest thinning when this threshold occurs at +2°C. An average increase in streamflow of 12% occurs after forest thinning across all climate scenarios. While the snow covered area is unaffected by thinning, the volume of snowmelt increases and is linked to the higher water yield. These findings indicate that water managers can expect decreases in streamflow due to climate change but may be able to offset these impacts up to a warming threshold by thinning forested areas within the Beaver Creek.
ContributorsCederstrom, Charles Joshua (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Svoma, Bohumil (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Accelerated climate and land use land cover (LULC) changes are anticipated to significantly impact water resources in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), a major freshwater source in the southwestern U.S. The need for actionable information from hydrologic research is growing rapidly, given considerable uncertainties. For instance, it is unclear if the predicted high degree of interannual precipitation variability across the basin could overwhelm the impacts of future warming and how this might vary in space. Climate change will also intensify forest disturbances (wildfire, mortality, thinning), which can significantly impact water resources. These impacts are not constrained, given findings of mixed post-disturbance hydrologic responses. Process-based models like the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) platform can quantitatively predict hydrologic behaviors of these complex systems. However, barriers limit their effectiveness to inform decision making: (1) simulations generate enormous data volumes, (2) outputs are inaccessible to managers, and (3) modeling is not transparent. I designed a stakeholder engagement and VIC modeling process to overcome these challenges, and developed a web-based tool, VIC-Explorer, to “open the black box” of my efforts. Meteorological data was from downscaled historical (1950-2005) and future projections (2006-2099) of eight climate models that best represent climatology under low- and high- emissions. I used two modeling methods: (1) a “top-down” approach to assess an “envelope of hydrologic possibility” under the 16 climate futures; and (2) a “bottom-up” evaluation of hydrology in two climates from the ensemble representing “Hot/Dry” and “Warm/Wet” futures. For the latter assessment, I modified land cover using projections of a LULC model and applied more drastic forest disturbances. I consulted water managers to expand the legitimacy of the research. Results showed Far-Future (2066-2095) basin-wide mean annual streamflow decline (relative to 1976-2005; ensemble median trends of -5% to -25%), attributed to warming that diminished spring snowfall and melt and year-round increased soil evaporation from the Upper Basin, and overall precipitation declines in the Lower Basin. Forest disturbances partially offset warming effects (basin-wide mean annual streamflow up to 12% larger than without disturbance). Results are available via VIC-Explorer, which includes documentation and guided analyses to ensure findings are interpreted appropriately for decision-making.
ContributorsWhitney, Kristen Marie (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Whipple, Kelin X (Committee member) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Xu, Tianfang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Cities globally are experiencing substantial warming due to ongoing urbanization and climate change. However, existing efforts to mitigate urban heat focus mainly on new technologies, exacerbate social injustices, and ignore the need for a sustainability lens that considers environmental, social, and economic perspectives. Heat in urban areas is amplified and urgently needs to be considered as a critical sustainability issue that crosses disciplinary and sectoral (traditional) boundaries. The missing urgency is concerning because urban overheating is a multi-faceted threat to the well-being and performance of individuals as well as the energy efficiency and economy of cities. Urban heat consequences require transformation in ways of thinking by involving the best available knowledge engaging scientists, policymakers, and communities. To do so, effective heat mitigation planning requires a considerable amount of diverse knowledge sources, yet urban planners face multiple barriers to effective heat mitigation, including a lack of usable, policy-relevant science and governance structures. To address these issues, transdisciplinary approaches, such as co-production via partnerships and the creation of usable, policy-relevant science, are necessary to allow for sustainable and equitable heat mitigation that allow cities to work toward multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using a systems approach. This dissertation presents three studies that contribute to a sustainability lens on urban heat, improve the holistic and multi-perspective understanding of heat mitigation strategies, provide contextual guidance for reflective pavement as a heat mitigation strategy, and evaluate a multilateral, sustainability-oriented, co-production partnership to foster heat resilience equitably in cities. Results show that science and city practice communicate differently about heat mitigation strategies while both avoid to communicate disservices and trade-offs. Additionally, performance evaluation of heat mitigation strategies for decision-making needs to consider multiple heat metrics, people, and background climate. Lastly, the partnership between science, city practice, and community needs to be evaluated to be accountable and provide a pathway of growth for all partners. The outcomes of this dissertation advance research and awareness of urban heat for science, practice, and community, and provide guidance to improve holistic and sustainable decision-making in cities and partnerships to address SDGs around urban heat.
ContributorsSchneider, Florian Arwed (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Thesis advisor) / Vanos, Jennifer K (Committee member) / Withycombe Keeler, Lauren (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Adaptive capacity to climate change is the ability of a system to mitigate or take advantage of climate change effects. Research on adaptive capacity to climate change suffers fragmentation. This is partly because there is no clear consensus around precise definitions of adaptive capacity. The aim of this thesis is to place definitions of adaptive capacity into a formal framework. I formalize adaptive capacity as a computational model written in the Idris 2 programming language. The model uses types to constrain how the elements of the model fit together. To achieve this, I analyze nine existing definitions of adaptive capacity. The focus of the analysis was on important factors that affect definitions and shared elements of the definitions. The model is able to describe an adaptive capacity study and guide a user toward concepts lacking clarity in the study. This shows that the model is useful as a tool to think about adaptive capacity. In the future, one could refine the model by forming an ontology for adaptive capacity. One could also review the literature more systematically. Finally, one might consider turning to qualitative research methods for reviewing the literature.
ContributorsManuel, Jason (Author) / Bazzi, Rida (Thesis director) / Pavlic, Theodore (Committee member) / Middel, Ariane (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2022-05
Description
The hydrologic cycle in drylands is complex with large spatiotemporal variationsacross scales and is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate and land cover. To
address the challenges posed by hydrologic changes, a synergistic approach that
combines numerical models, ground and remotely sensed observations, and data analysis
is crucial. This dissertation uses innovative detection and modeling techniques to assess
key hydrologic variables in drylands, including irrigated water use, streamflow, and
snowpack conditions, answering following research questions that also have broad
societal implications: (1) What are the individual and combined effects of future climate
and land use change on irrigation water use (IWU) in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area
(PMA)?; (2) How can temporal changes in streamflow and the impacts of flash flooding
be detected in dryland rivers?; and (3) What are the impacts of rainfall-snow partitioning
on future snowpack and streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (CRB)?
Firstly, I conducted a scenario modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity
(VIC) model under future climate and land use change scenarios. Results showed that
future IWU will change from -0.5% to +6.8% in the far future (2071-2100) relative to the
historical period (1981-2010). Secondly, I employed CubeSat imagery to map streamflow
presence in the Hassayampa River of Arizona, finding that the imaging capacity of
CubeSats enabled the detection of ephemeral flow events using the surface reflectance of
the near-infrared (NIR) band. Results showed that 12% of reaches were classified as
intermittent, with the remaining as ephemeral. Finally, I implemented a physically-based
rainfall-snow partitioning scheme in the VIC model that estimates snowfall fraction from
the wet-bulb temperature using a sigmoid function. The new scheme predicts more
significant declines in snowfall (-8 to -11%) and streamflow (-14 to -27%) by the end of
the 21st century over the CRB, relative to historical conditions.
Overall, this dissertation demonstrates how innovative technologies can enhance
the understanding of dryland hydrologic changes and inform decision-making of water
resources management. The findings offer important insights for policymakers, water
managers, and researchers who seek to ensure water resources sustainability under the
effects of climate and land use change.
ContributorsWang, Zhaocheng (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Rapid urban expansion and the associated landscape modifications have led to significant changes of surface processes in built environments. These changes further interact with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer and strongly modulate urban microclimate. To capture the impacts of urban land surface processes on urban boundary layer dynamics, a coupled urban land-atmospheric modeling framework has been developed. The urban land surface is parameterized by an advanced single-layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) with realistic representations of urban green infrastructures such as lawn, tree, and green roof, etc. The urban atmospheric boundary layer is simulated by a single column model (SCM) with both convective and stable schemes. This coupled SLUCM-SCM framework can simulate the time evolution and vertical profile of different meteorological variables such as virtual potential temperature, specific humidity and carbon dioxide concentration. The coupled framework has been calibrated and validated in the metropolitan Phoenix area, Arizona. To quantify the model sensitivity, an advanced stochastic approach based on Markov-Chain Monte Carlo procedure has been applied. It is found that the development of urban boundary layer is highly sensitive to surface characteristics of built terrains, including urban land use, geometry, roughness of momentum, and vegetation fraction. In particular, different types of urban vegetation (mesic/xeric) affect the boundary layer dynamics through different mechanisms. Furthermore, this framework can be implanted into large-scale models such as Weather Research and Forecasting model to assess the impact of urbanization on regional climate.
ContributorsSong, Jiyun (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Myint, Soe W (Committee member) / Sailor, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Without scientific expertise, society may make catastrophically poor choices when faced with problems such as climate change. However, scientists who engage society with normative questions face tension between advocacy and the social norms of science that call for objectivity and neutrality. Policy established in 2011 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) required their communication to be objective and neutral and this research comprised a qualitative analysis of IPCC reports to consider how much of their communication is strictly factual (Objective), and value-free (Neutral), and to consider how their communication had changed from 1990 to 2013. Further research comprised a qualitative analysis of structured interviews with scientists and non-scientists who were professionally engaged in climate science communication, to consider practitioner views on advocacy. The literature and the structured interviews revealed a conflicting range of definitions for advocacy versus objectivity and neutrality. The practitioners that were interviewed struggled to separate objective and neutral science from attempts to persuade, and the IPCC reports contained a substantial amount of communication that was not strictly factual and value-free. This research found that science communication often blurred the distinction between facts and values, imbuing the subjective with the authority and credibility of science, and thereby damaging the foundation for scientific credibility. This research proposes a strict definition for factual and value-free as a means to separate science from advocacy, to better protect the credibility of science, and better prepare scientists to negotiate contentious science-based policy issues. The normative dimension of sustainability will likely entangle scientists in advocacy or the appearance of it, and this research may be generalizable to sustainability.
ContributorsMcClintock, Scott (Author) / Van Der Leeuw, Sander (Thesis advisor) / Klinsky, Sonja (Committee member) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Hannah, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Recent extreme weather events such the 2020 Nashville, Tennessee tornado and Hurricane Maria highlight the devastating economic losses and loss of life associated with weather-related disasters. Understanding the impacts of extreme weather events is critical to mitigating disaster losses and increasing societal resilience to future events. Geographical approaches are best suited to examine social and ecological factors in extreme weather event impacts because they systematically examine the spatial interactions (e.g., flows, processes, impacts) of the earth’s system and human-environment relationships. The goal of this research is to demonstrate the utility of geographical approaches in assessing social and ecological factors in extreme weather event impacts. The first two papers analyze the social factors in the impact of Hurricane Sandy through the application of social geographical factors. The first paper examines how knowledge disconnect between experts (climatologists, urban planners, civil engineers) and policy-makers contributed to the damaging impacts of Hurricane Sandy. The second paper examines the role of land use suitability as suggested by Ian McHarg in 1969 and unsustainable planning in the impact of Hurricane Sandy. Overlay analyses of storm surge and damage buildings show damage losses would have been significantly reduced had development followed McHarg’s suggested land use suitability. The last two papers examine the utility of Unpiloted Aerial Systems (UASs) technologies and geospatial methods (ecological geographical approaches) in tornado damage surveys. The third paper discusses the benefits, limitations, and procedures of using UASs technologies in tornado damage surveys. The fourth paper examines topographical influences on tornadoes using UAS technologies and geospatial methods (ecological geographical approach). This paper highlights how topography can play a major role in tornado behavior (damage intensity and path deviation) and demonstrates how UASs technologies can be invaluable tools in damage assessments and improving the understanding of severe storm dynamics (e.g., tornadic wind interactions with topography). Overall, the significance of these four papers demonstrates the potential to improve societal resilience to future extreme weather events and mitigate future losses by better understanding the social and ecological components in extreme weather event impacts through geographical approaches.
ContributorsWagner, Melissa Anne (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Thesis advisor) / Chhetri, Netra B (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Sustainable communities discourse, literature and initiatives have essentially excluded poor marginalized communities at a time when sustainability efforts require more stakeholders and stakeholder involvement. The families in poor marginalized communities of color in the United States are struggling to meet basic needs (food, medicine, shelter, safety). Additionally, in these communities there is a disproportionate level of forced mobility to prisons, jails and detention centers. These communities are unsustainable. This dissertation is comprised of three articles. I present in the first article (published in Sustainability Journal) an argument for a definition of sustainability that includes recognition of the major, complex and persistent problems faced daily by poor marginalized communities of color (African American, Hispanic/Latino, Native American) including those connected to mass incarceration and high recidivism. I also propose a system-of-communities conceptual framework. In my second article, I explore sustainability assessment tools and find them to be inadequate for measuring the progress toward sustainability of poor marginalized communities with high incarceration and recidivism rates. In order to fill this gap, I developed the Building Sustainable Communities Framework and a Social Reintegration, Inclusion, Cohesion, Equity (Social R.I.C.E.) Transition Tool, a qualitative interview guide (a precursor to the development of a community sustainability assessment tool). In the third article, I test the utility of the Building Sustainable Communities Framework and Social R.I.C.E. Transition Tool through a community-based participatory action study: The Building Sustainable Communities-Repairing the Harm of Incarceration Pilot Project. Three types of participants were included, formerly incarcerated, family members of formerly incarcerated and community members. The Restorative Justice Circle process (based on a traditional practice of Native Americans and other indigenous peoples) was also introduced to the groups for the purpose of having discussions and sharing personal stories in a safe, nonthreatening, confidential and equitable space. During the study, data was gathered for reflexive thematic analysis from two participant groups, in-depth interviews, focus groups and short qualitative surveys. The findings reflect the community is in dire need of a path to stability and sustainability and needs the knowledge and tools to help them make collective community decisions about present and future sustainability issues.
ContributorsAdams, Muriel (Author) / Chhetri, Nalini (Thesis advisor) / Klinsky, Sonja (Thesis advisor) / Boone, Christopher (Committee member) / Pranis, Kay (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021