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- All Subjects: Mathematical Modeling
- All Subjects: Renewable Energy
- Genre: Academic theses
- Genre: Masters Thesis
- Creators: Kostelich, Eric
- Creators: Phelan, Patrick
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Description
Many expect renewable energy technologies to play a leading role in a sustainable energy supply system and to aid the shift away from an over-reliance on traditional hydrocarbon resources in the next few decades. This dissertation develops environmental, policy and social models to help understand various aspects of photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The first part of this dissertation advances the life cycle assessment (LCA) of PV systems by expanding the boundary of included processes using hybrid LCA and accounting for the technology-driven dynamics of environmental impacts. Hybrid LCA extends the traditional method combining bottom-up process-sum and top-down economic input-output (EIO) approaches. The embodied energy and carbon of multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems are assessed using hybrid LCA. From 2001 to 2010, the embodied energy and carbon fell substantially, indicating that technological progress is realizing reductions in environmental impacts in addition to lower module price. A variety of policies support renewable energy adoption, and it is critical to make them function cooperatively. To reveal the interrelationships among these policies, the second part of this dissertation proposes three tiers of policy architecture. This study develops a model to determine the specific subsidies required to support a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) goal. The financial requirements are calculated (in two scenarios) and compared with predictable funds from public sources. A main result is that the expected investments to achieve the RPS goal far exceed the economic allocation for subsidy of distributed PV. Even with subsidies there are often challenges with social acceptance. The third part of this dissertation originally develops a fuzzy logic inference model to relate consumers' attitudes about the technology such as perceived cost, maintenance, and environmental concern to their adoption intention. Fuzzy logic inference model is a type of soft computing models. It has the advantage of dealing with imprecise and insufficient information and mimicking reasoning processes of human brains. This model is implemented in a case study of residential PV adoption using data through a survey of homeowners in Arizona. The output of this model is the purchasing probability of PV.
ContributorsZhai, Pei (Author) / Williams, Eric D. (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today. One of the impacts of climate change is on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), such as West Nile Virus (WNV). Climate is known to influence vector and host demography as well as MBD transmission. This dissertation addresses the questions of how vector and host demography impact WNV dynamics, and how expected and likely climate change scenarios will affect demographic and epidemiological processes of WNV transmission. First, a data fusion method is developed that connects non-autonomous logistic model parameters to mosquito time series data. This method captures the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variation of mosquito populations within a geographical location. Next, a three-population WNV model between mosquito vectors, bird hosts, and human hosts with infection-age structure for the vector and bird host populations is introduced. A sensitivity analysis uncovers which parameters have the most influence on WNV outbreaks. Finally, the WNV model is extended to include the non-autonomous population model and temperature-dependent processes. Model parameterization using historical temperature and human WNV case data from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is conducted. Parameter fitting results are then used to analyze possible future WNV dynamics under two climate change scenarios. These results suggest that WNV risk for the GTA will substantially increase as temperature increases from climate change, even under the most conservative assumptions. This demonstrates the importance of ensuring that the warming of the planet is limited as much as possible.
ContributorsMancuso, Marina (Author) / Milner, Fabio A (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Eikenberry, Steffen (Committee member) / Manore, Carrie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Concentrating solar thermal power systems gained a wide interest for a long time to serve as a renewable and sustainable alternate source of energy. While the optimization and modification are ongoing, focused generally on solar power systems to provide solar-electrical energy or solar-thermal energy, the production process of Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) has not changed over the past century. A linear refractive Fresnel lens application in cement production process is investigated in this research to provide the thermal power required to raise the temperature of lime up to 623 K (350C) with zero carbon emissions for stage two in a new proposed two-stage production process. The location is considered to be Phoenix, Arizona, with a linear refractive Fresnel lens facing south, tilted 33.45 equaling the location latitude, and concentrating solar beam radiation on an evacuated tube collector with tracking system continuously rotating about the north-south axis. The mathematical analysis showed promising results based on averaged monthly values representing an average hourly useful thermal power and receiver temperature during day-light hours for each month throughout the year. The maximum average hourly useful thermal power throughout the year was obtained for June as 33 kWth m-2 with a maximum receiver temperature achieved of 786 K (513C), and the minimum useful thermal power obtained during the month of December with 27 kWth m-2 and a minimum receiver temperature of 701 K (428C).
ContributorsAlkhuwaiteem, Mohammad (Author) / Phelan, Patrick (Thesis advisor) / Shuaib, Abdelrahman (Committee member) / Neithalath, Narayanan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Synthetic biology (SB) has become an important field of science focusing on designing and engineering new biological parts and systems, or re-designing existing biological systems for useful purposes. The dramatic growth of SB throughout the past two decades has not only provided us numerous achievements, but also brought us more timely and underexplored problems. In SB's entire history, mathematical modeling has always been an indispensable approach to predict the experimental outcomes, improve experimental design and obtain mechanism-understanding of the biological systems. \textit{Escherichia coli} (\textit{E. coli}) is one of the most important experimental platforms, its growth dynamics is the major research objective in this dissertation. Chapter 2 employs a reaction-diffusion model to predict the \textit{E. coli} colony growth on a semi-solid agar plate under multiple controls. In that chapter, a density-dependent diffusion model with non-monotonic growth to capture the colony's non-linear growth profile is introduced. Findings of the new model to experimental data are compared and contrasted with those from other proposed models. In addition, the cross-sectional profile of the colony are computed and compared with experimental data. \textit{E. coli} colony is also used to perform spatial patterns driven by designed gene circuits. In Chapter 3, a gene circuit (MINPAC) and its corresponding pattern formation results are presented. Specifically, a series of partial differential equation (PDE) models are developed to describe the pattern formation driven by the MINPAC circuit. Model simulations of the patterns based on different experimental conditions and numerical analysis of the models to obtain a deeper understanding of the mechanisms are performed and discussed. Mathematical analysis of the simplified models, including traveling wave analysis and local stability analysis, is also presented and used to explore the control strategies of the pattern formation. The interaction between the gene circuit and the host \textit{E. coli} may be crucial and even greatly affect the experimental outcomes. Chapter 4 focuses on the growth feedback between the circuit and the host cell under different nutrient conditions. Two ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are developed to describe such feedback with nutrient variation. Preliminary results on data fitting using both two models and the model dynamical analysis are included.
ContributorsHe, Changhan (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Xiao (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Tian, Xiaojun (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
An eco-industrial park (EIP) is an industrial ecosystem in which a group of co-located firms are involved in collective resource optimization with each other and with the local community through physical exchanges of energy, water, materials, byproducts and services - referenced in the industrial ecology literature as "industrial symbiosis". EIPs, when compared with standard industrial resource sharing networks, prove to be of greater public advantage as they offer improved environmental and economic benefits, and higher operational efficiencies both upstream and downstream in their supply chain.
Although there have been many attempts to adapt EIP methodology to existing industrial sharing networks, most of them have failed for various factors: geographic restrictions by governmental organizations on use of technology, cost of technology, the inability of industries to effectively communicate their upstream and downstream resource usage, and to diminishing natural resources such as water, land and non-renewable energy (NRE) sources for energy production.
This paper presents a feasibility study conducted to evaluate the comparative environmental, economic, and geographic impacts arising from the use of renewable energy (RE) and NRE to power EIPs. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, which is used in a variety of sectors to evaluate the environmental merits and demerits of different kinds of products and processes, was employed for comparison between these two energy production methods based on factors such as greenhouse gas emission, acidification potential, eutrophication potential, human toxicity potential, fresh water usage and land usage. To complement the environmental LCA analysis, levelized cost of electricity was used to evaluate the economic impact. This model was analyzed for two different geographic locations; United States and Europe, for 12 different energy production technologies.
The outcome of this study points out the environmental, economic and geographic superiority of one energy source over the other, including the total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, which can then be related to the total number of carbon credits that can be earned or used to mitigate the overall carbon emission and move closer towards a net zero carbon footprint goal thus making the EIPs truly sustainable.
Although there have been many attempts to adapt EIP methodology to existing industrial sharing networks, most of them have failed for various factors: geographic restrictions by governmental organizations on use of technology, cost of technology, the inability of industries to effectively communicate their upstream and downstream resource usage, and to diminishing natural resources such as water, land and non-renewable energy (NRE) sources for energy production.
This paper presents a feasibility study conducted to evaluate the comparative environmental, economic, and geographic impacts arising from the use of renewable energy (RE) and NRE to power EIPs. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, which is used in a variety of sectors to evaluate the environmental merits and demerits of different kinds of products and processes, was employed for comparison between these two energy production methods based on factors such as greenhouse gas emission, acidification potential, eutrophication potential, human toxicity potential, fresh water usage and land usage. To complement the environmental LCA analysis, levelized cost of electricity was used to evaluate the economic impact. This model was analyzed for two different geographic locations; United States and Europe, for 12 different energy production technologies.
The outcome of this study points out the environmental, economic and geographic superiority of one energy source over the other, including the total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, which can then be related to the total number of carbon credits that can be earned or used to mitigate the overall carbon emission and move closer towards a net zero carbon footprint goal thus making the EIPs truly sustainable.
ContributorsGupta, Vaibhav (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald J (Thesis advisor) / Dooley, Kevin (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Predicting resistant prostate cancer is critical for lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. I formulate, compare, and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). I accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). I demonstrate that the inverse problem of parameter estimation might be too complicated and simply relying on data fitting can give incorrect conclusions, since there is a large error in parameter values estimated and parameters might be unidentifiable. I provide confidence intervals to give estimate forecasts using data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman Filter. Using the ensemble Kalman Filter, I perform dual estimation of parameters and state variables to test the prediction accuracy of the models. Finally, I present a novel model with time delay and a delay-dependent parameter. I provide a geometric stability result to study the behavior of this model and show that the inclusion of time delay may improve the accuracy of predictions. Also, I demonstrate with clinical data that the inclusion of the delay-dependent parameter facilitates the identification and estimation of parameters.
ContributorsBaez, Javier (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Cancer is a disease involving abnormal growth of cells. Its growth dynamics is perplexing. Mathematical modeling is a way to shed light on this progress and its medical treatments. This dissertation is to study cancer invasion in time and space using a mathematical approach. Chapter 1 presents a detailed review of literature on cancer modeling.
Chapter 2 focuses sorely on time where the escape of a generic cancer out of immune control is described by stochastic delayed differential equations (SDDEs). Without time delay and noise, this system demonstrates bistability. The effects of response time of the immune system and stochasticity in the tumor proliferation rate are studied by including delay and noise in the model. Stability, persistence and extinction of the tumor are analyzed. The result shows that both time delay and noise can induce the transition from low tumor burden equilibrium to high tumor equilibrium. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019b).
In Chapter 3, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is studied using a partial differential equation (PDE) model. GBM is an aggressive brain cancer with a grim prognosis. A mathematical model of GBM growth with explicit motility, birth, and death processes is proposed. A novel method is developed to approximate key characteristics of the wave profile, which can be compared with MRI data. Several test cases of MRI data of GBM patients are used to yield personalized parameterizations of the model. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019a).
Chapter 4 presents an innovative way of forecasting spatial cancer invasion. Most mathematical models, including the ones described in previous chapters, are formulated based on strong assumptions, which are hard, if not impossible, to verify due to complexity of biological processes and lack of quality data. Instead, a nonparametric forecasting method using Gaussian processes is proposed. By exploiting the local nature of the spatio-temporal process, sparse (in terms of time) data is sufficient for forecasting. Desirable properties of Gaussian processes facilitate selection of the size of the local neighborhood and computationally efficient propagation of uncertainty. The method is tested on synthetic data and demonstrates promising results.
Chapter 2 focuses sorely on time where the escape of a generic cancer out of immune control is described by stochastic delayed differential equations (SDDEs). Without time delay and noise, this system demonstrates bistability. The effects of response time of the immune system and stochasticity in the tumor proliferation rate are studied by including delay and noise in the model. Stability, persistence and extinction of the tumor are analyzed. The result shows that both time delay and noise can induce the transition from low tumor burden equilibrium to high tumor equilibrium. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019b).
In Chapter 3, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is studied using a partial differential equation (PDE) model. GBM is an aggressive brain cancer with a grim prognosis. A mathematical model of GBM growth with explicit motility, birth, and death processes is proposed. A novel method is developed to approximate key characteristics of the wave profile, which can be compared with MRI data. Several test cases of MRI data of GBM patients are used to yield personalized parameterizations of the model. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019a).
Chapter 4 presents an innovative way of forecasting spatial cancer invasion. Most mathematical models, including the ones described in previous chapters, are formulated based on strong assumptions, which are hard, if not impossible, to verify due to complexity of biological processes and lack of quality data. Instead, a nonparametric forecasting method using Gaussian processes is proposed. By exploiting the local nature of the spatio-temporal process, sparse (in terms of time) data is sufficient for forecasting. Desirable properties of Gaussian processes facilitate selection of the size of the local neighborhood and computationally efficient propagation of uncertainty. The method is tested on synthetic data and demonstrates promising results.
ContributorsHan, Lifeng (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Fricks, John (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Baer, Steve (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
The operating temperature of photovoltaic (PV) modules has a strong impact on the expected performance of said modules in photovoltaic arrays. As the install capacity of PV arrays grows throughout the world, improved accuracy in modeling of the expected module temperature, particularly at finer time scales, requires improvements in the existing photovoltaic temperature models. This thesis work details the investigation, motivation, development, validation, and implementation of a transient photovoltaic module temperature model based on a weighted moving-average of steady-state temperature predictions.
This thesis work first details the literature review of steady-state and transient models that are commonly used by PV investigators in performance modeling. Attempts to develop models capable of accounting for the inherent transient thermal behavior of PV modules are shown to improve on the accuracy of the steady-state models while also significantly increasing the computational complexity and the number of input parameters needed to perform the model calculations.
The transient thermal model development presented in this thesis begins with an investigation of module thermal behavior performed through finite-element analysis (FEA) in a computer-aided design (CAD) software package. This FEA was used to discover trends in transient thermal behavior for a representative PV module in a timely manner. The FEA simulations were based on heat transfer principles and were validated against steady-state temperature model predictions. The dynamic thermal behavior of PV modules was determined to be exponential, with the shape of the exponential being dependent on the wind speed and mass per unit area of the module.
The results and subsequent discussion provided in this thesis link the thermal behavior observed in the FEA simulations to existing steady-state temperature models in order to create an exponential weighting function. This function can perform a weighted average of steady-state temperature predictions within 20 minutes of the time in question to generate a module temperature prediction that accounts for the inherent thermal mass of the module while requiring only simple input parameters. Validation of the modeling method presented here shows performance modeling accuracy improvement of 0.58%, or 1.45°C, over performance models relying on steady-state models at narrow data intervals.
This thesis work first details the literature review of steady-state and transient models that are commonly used by PV investigators in performance modeling. Attempts to develop models capable of accounting for the inherent transient thermal behavior of PV modules are shown to improve on the accuracy of the steady-state models while also significantly increasing the computational complexity and the number of input parameters needed to perform the model calculations.
The transient thermal model development presented in this thesis begins with an investigation of module thermal behavior performed through finite-element analysis (FEA) in a computer-aided design (CAD) software package. This FEA was used to discover trends in transient thermal behavior for a representative PV module in a timely manner. The FEA simulations were based on heat transfer principles and were validated against steady-state temperature model predictions. The dynamic thermal behavior of PV modules was determined to be exponential, with the shape of the exponential being dependent on the wind speed and mass per unit area of the module.
The results and subsequent discussion provided in this thesis link the thermal behavior observed in the FEA simulations to existing steady-state temperature models in order to create an exponential weighting function. This function can perform a weighted average of steady-state temperature predictions within 20 minutes of the time in question to generate a module temperature prediction that accounts for the inherent thermal mass of the module while requiring only simple input parameters. Validation of the modeling method presented here shows performance modeling accuracy improvement of 0.58%, or 1.45°C, over performance models relying on steady-state models at narrow data intervals.
ContributorsPrilliman, Matthew (Author) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Phelan, Patrick (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Liping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020