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Traditional public health strategies for assessing human behavior, exposure, and activity are considered resource-exhaustive, time-consuming, and expensive, warranting a need for alternative methods to enhance data acquisition and subsequent interventions. This dissertation critically evaluated the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as an inclusive and non-invasive tool for conducting near real-time population health assessments. A rigorous literature review was performed to gauge the current landscape of WBE to monitor for biomarkers indicative of diet, as well as exposure to estrogen-mimicking endocrine disrupting (EED) chemicals via route of ingestion. Wastewater-derived measurements of phytoestrogens from August 2017 through July 2019 (n = 156 samples) in a small sewer catchment revealed seasonal patterns, with highest average per capita consumption rates in January through March of each year (2018: 7.0 ± 2.0 mg d-1; 2019: 8.2 ± 2.3 mg d-1) and statistically significant differences (p = 0.01) between fall and winter (3.4 ± 1.2 vs. 6.1 ± 2.9 mg d-1; p ≤ 0.01) and spring and summer (5.6 ± 2.1 vs. 3.4 ± 1.5 mg d-1; p ≤ 0.01). Additional investigations, including a human gut microbial composition analysis of community wastewater, were performed to support a methodological framework for future implementation of WBE to assess population-level dietary behavior. In response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, a high-frequency, high-resolution sample collection approach with public data sharing was implemented throughout the City of Tempe, Arizona, and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 (E gene) from April 2020 through March 2021 (n = 1,556 samples). Results indicate early warning capability during the first wave (June 2020) compared to newly reported clinical cases (8.5 ± 2.1 days), later transitioning to a slight lagging indicator in December/January 2020-21 (-2.0 ± 1.4 days). A viral hotspot from within a larger catchment area was detected, prompting targeted interventions to successfully mitigate community spread; reinforcing the importance of sample collection within the sewer infrastructure. I conclude that by working in tandem with traditional approaches, WBE can enlighten a comprehensive understanding of population health, with methods and strategies implemented in this work recommended for future expansion to produce timely, actionable data in support of public health.
ContributorsBowes, Devin Ashley (Author) / Halden, Rolf U (Thesis advisor) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Thesis advisor) / Conroy-Ben, Otakuye (Committee member) / Varsani, Arvind (Committee member) / Whisner, Corrie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016