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Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Chronic diseases are the leading causes of death in the United States. Dietary behaviors influence the risk of developing multiple chronic diseases. The U.S. population consumes too few fruits and vegetables and too much sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) and fast food. The Social Ecological Model (SEM) was created as a framework for health promotion interventions. The SEM organizes factors that can influence health into five layers: intrapersonal factors, interpersonal processes, institutional/organizational factors, community factors, and public policy. Each layer can influence dietary behaviors and other layers.
This work aims to understand how the community layer, represented by the food environment, moderates the association of two other layers and dietary behaviors: the interpersonal layer, represented by receiving health care provider’s (HCP) advice to lose weight, and the policy layer, represented by participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and a policy change within the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).
Participant data were obtained from a household telephone survey of 2,211 adults in four cities in New Jersey from two cross-sectional panels in 2009-10 and 2014. Community food data were purchased and classified according to previously established protocol. Interaction and stratified analyses determined the differences in the association between HCP advice, SNAP participation, and time (for WIC participants) and eating behaviors by the food environment.
Interaction and stratified analyses revealed that HCP advice was associated with a decrease in SSB consumption when participants lived near a small grocery store, or far from a supermarket, limited service restaurant (LSR), or convenience store. SNAP participation was associated with a higher SSB consumption when respondents lived close to a small grocery store, supermarket, and LSR. There were no differences in fruit and vegetable consumption between two time points among WIC participants, or by food outlet.
The food environment, part of the community layer of SEM, moderated the relationship between the interpersonal layer and dietary behaviors and the policy layer and dietary behaviors. The association between HCP advice and dietary behaviors and SNAP participation and dietary behaviors were both influenced by the food environment in which participants lived.
This work aims to understand how the community layer, represented by the food environment, moderates the association of two other layers and dietary behaviors: the interpersonal layer, represented by receiving health care provider’s (HCP) advice to lose weight, and the policy layer, represented by participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and a policy change within the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).
Participant data were obtained from a household telephone survey of 2,211 adults in four cities in New Jersey from two cross-sectional panels in 2009-10 and 2014. Community food data were purchased and classified according to previously established protocol. Interaction and stratified analyses determined the differences in the association between HCP advice, SNAP participation, and time (for WIC participants) and eating behaviors by the food environment.
Interaction and stratified analyses revealed that HCP advice was associated with a decrease in SSB consumption when participants lived near a small grocery store, or far from a supermarket, limited service restaurant (LSR), or convenience store. SNAP participation was associated with a higher SSB consumption when respondents lived close to a small grocery store, supermarket, and LSR. There were no differences in fruit and vegetable consumption between two time points among WIC participants, or by food outlet.
The food environment, part of the community layer of SEM, moderated the relationship between the interpersonal layer and dietary behaviors and the policy layer and dietary behaviors. The association between HCP advice and dietary behaviors and SNAP participation and dietary behaviors were both influenced by the food environment in which participants lived.
ContributorsLorts, Cori Elizabeth (Author) / Ohri-Vachaspati, Punam (Thesis advisor) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / Hooker, Steven (Committee member) / Roberto, Anthony (Committee member) / Tasevska, Natasha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Background: Children’s fruit and vegetable consumption in the United States is lower than recommended. School lunch is an opportunity for students to be exposed to fruits and vegetables and potentially increase their daily intake. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between tray color and fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste at lunch.
Methods: Study participants (n=1469) were elementary and middle school students who ate school lunch on the day of data collection. Photographs and weights (to nearest 2 g) were taken of fruits and vegetables on students’ trays before and after lunch. Trained research assistants viewed photographs and sorted trays into variable categories: color of main tray, presence/absence of secondary fruit/vegetable container, and color of secondary fruit/vegetable container. Fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste were calculated using tray weights. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for gender, grade level, race/ethnicity, free/reduced price lunch status, and within-school similarities were used to examine relationships between tray color and fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste.
Results: Findings indicated that students with a light tray selected (IRR= 0.44), consumed (IRR=0.73) and wasted (IRR=0.81) less fruit and vegetables. Students without a secondary fruit/vegetable container selected (IRR=0.66) and consumed (IRR=0.49) less fruit and vegetables compared to those with a secondary container. Light or clear secondary fruit and vegetable containers were related to increased selection (IRR=2.06 light, 2.30 clear) and consumption (IRR=1.95 light, 2.78 clear) compared to dark secondary containers, while light secondary containers were related to decreased waste (IRR= 0.57).
Conclusion: Tray color may influence fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste among students eating school lunch. Further research is needed to determine if there is a cause and effect relationship. If so, adjusting container colors may be a practical intervention for schools hoping to increase fruit and vegetable intake among students.
Methods: Study participants (n=1469) were elementary and middle school students who ate school lunch on the day of data collection. Photographs and weights (to nearest 2 g) were taken of fruits and vegetables on students’ trays before and after lunch. Trained research assistants viewed photographs and sorted trays into variable categories: color of main tray, presence/absence of secondary fruit/vegetable container, and color of secondary fruit/vegetable container. Fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste were calculated using tray weights. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for gender, grade level, race/ethnicity, free/reduced price lunch status, and within-school similarities were used to examine relationships between tray color and fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste.
Results: Findings indicated that students with a light tray selected (IRR= 0.44), consumed (IRR=0.73) and wasted (IRR=0.81) less fruit and vegetables. Students without a secondary fruit/vegetable container selected (IRR=0.66) and consumed (IRR=0.49) less fruit and vegetables compared to those with a secondary container. Light or clear secondary fruit and vegetable containers were related to increased selection (IRR=2.06 light, 2.30 clear) and consumption (IRR=1.95 light, 2.78 clear) compared to dark secondary containers, while light secondary containers were related to decreased waste (IRR= 0.57).
Conclusion: Tray color may influence fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste among students eating school lunch. Further research is needed to determine if there is a cause and effect relationship. If so, adjusting container colors may be a practical intervention for schools hoping to increase fruit and vegetable intake among students.
ContributorsWeight, Raquelle (Author) / Bruening, Meg (Thesis advisor) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / Martinelli, Sarah (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Background: Studies show that rural schools may be less supportive of student fruit/vegetable (FV) consumption, but few studies have investigated the relationship between school locale and FVs. The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between school locale (rural vs. urban) and students’ FV selection, consumption, and waste in elementary, middle, and high schools. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of 37 Arizona schools evaluated differences in the selection, consumption, and waste of fresh FVs from students (n=2525; 45.7% female; 41% non-white; mean age=11.6±3.3; 23.5% rural) using objective plate waste measures. Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions examined differences in FV grams selected, consumed, and wasted by urban vs. rural locale, adjusted for sociodemographics and school.
Results: The percent of students who selected, consumed, and wasted zero grams of FVs were 14%, 21%, 20%, respectively. Among students with some (non-zero amounts), the average selected, consumed, and wasted FVs were 115.0±81.4g, 51.7.5±65.1g, 65.2±66.7g, respectively. Rural students (versus urban) had lower odds of selecting (OR=0.75), consuming (OR=0.78), and wasting (OR=0.71) any FVs, after adjusting for covariates. However, among students with some FVs on their plates, rural students selected (IRR=1.40), consumed (IRR=1.18) and wasted (IRR=1.62) more grams of FVs.
Conclusions: Rural students had reduced odds of selecting and consuming any FVs, but with lower odds of waste, perhaps due to reduced selection. Once some FVs were on the tray, likelihood of consumption and waste by rural students were greater. Results support interventions targeting rural students’ FV intake to reduce waste.
ContributorsJepson, Molly Eilish (Author) / Bruening, Meg (Thesis advisor) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / Grgich, Traci (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021