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Description
Diffusion processes in networks can be used to model many real-world processes, such as the propagation of a rumor on social networks and cascading failures on power networks. Analysis of diffusion processes in networks can help us answer important questions such as the role and the importance of each node in the network for spreading the diffusion and how to top or contain a cascading failure in the network. This dissertation consists of three parts.
In the first part, we study the problem of locating multiple diffusion sources in networks under the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Given a complete snapshot of the network, we developed a sample-path-based algorithm, named clustering and localization, and proved that for regular trees, the estimators produced by the proposed algorithm are within a constant distance from the real sources with a high probability. Then, we considered the case in which only a partial snapshot is observed and proposed a new algorithm, named Optimal-Jordan-Cover (OJC). The algorithm first extracts a subgraph using a candidate selection algorithm that selects source candidates based on the number of observed infected nodes in their neighborhoods. Then, in the extracted subgraph, OJC finds a set of nodes that "cover" all observed infected nodes with the minimum radius. The set of nodes is called the Jordan cover, and is regarded as the set of diffusion sources. We proved that OJC can locate all sources with probability one asymptotically with partial observations in the Erdos-Renyi (ER) random graph. Multiple experiments on different networks were done, which show our algorithms outperform others.
In the second part, we tackle the problem of reconstructing the diffusion history from partial observations. We formulated the diffusion history reconstruction problem as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem and proved the problem is NP hard. Then we proposed a step-by- step reconstruction algorithm, which can always produce a diffusion history that is consistent with the partial observations. Our experimental results based on synthetic and real networks show that the algorithm significantly outperforms some existing methods.
In the third part, we consider the problem of improving the robustness of an interdependent network by rewiring a small number of links during a cascading attack. We formulated the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) problem. While the problem is NP-hard, we developed an effective and efficient algorithm, RealWire, to robustify the network and to mitigate the damage during the attack. Extensive experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms other algorithms on most of the robustness metrics.
In the first part, we study the problem of locating multiple diffusion sources in networks under the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Given a complete snapshot of the network, we developed a sample-path-based algorithm, named clustering and localization, and proved that for regular trees, the estimators produced by the proposed algorithm are within a constant distance from the real sources with a high probability. Then, we considered the case in which only a partial snapshot is observed and proposed a new algorithm, named Optimal-Jordan-Cover (OJC). The algorithm first extracts a subgraph using a candidate selection algorithm that selects source candidates based on the number of observed infected nodes in their neighborhoods. Then, in the extracted subgraph, OJC finds a set of nodes that "cover" all observed infected nodes with the minimum radius. The set of nodes is called the Jordan cover, and is regarded as the set of diffusion sources. We proved that OJC can locate all sources with probability one asymptotically with partial observations in the Erdos-Renyi (ER) random graph. Multiple experiments on different networks were done, which show our algorithms outperform others.
In the second part, we tackle the problem of reconstructing the diffusion history from partial observations. We formulated the diffusion history reconstruction problem as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem and proved the problem is NP hard. Then we proposed a step-by- step reconstruction algorithm, which can always produce a diffusion history that is consistent with the partial observations. Our experimental results based on synthetic and real networks show that the algorithm significantly outperforms some existing methods.
In the third part, we consider the problem of improving the robustness of an interdependent network by rewiring a small number of links during a cascading attack. We formulated the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) problem. While the problem is NP-hard, we developed an effective and efficient algorithm, RealWire, to robustify the network and to mitigate the damage during the attack. Extensive experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms other algorithms on most of the robustness metrics.
ContributorsChen, Zhen (Author) / Ying, Lei (Thesis advisor) / Tong, Hanghang (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Junshan (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Stock market news and investing tips are popular topics in Twitter. In this dissertation, first I utilize a 5-year financial news corpus comprising over 50,000 articles collected from the NASDAQ website matching the 30 stock symbols in Dow Jones Index (DJI) to train a directional stock price prediction system based on news content. Next, I proceed to show that information in articles indicated by breaking Tweet volumes leads to a statistically significant boost in the hourly directional prediction accuracies for the DJI stock prices mentioned in these articles. Secondly, I show that using document-level sentiment extraction does not yield a statistically significant boost in the directional predictive accuracies in the presence of other 1-gram keyword features. Thirdly I test the performance of the system on several time-frames and identify the 4 hour time-frame for both the price charts and for Tweet breakout detection as the best time-frame combination. Finally, I develop a set of price momentum based trade exit rules to cut losing trades early and to allow the winning trades run longer. I show that the Tweet volume breakout based trading system with the price momentum based exit rules not only improves the winning accuracy and the return on investment, but it also lowers the maximum drawdown and achieves the highest overall return over maximum drawdown.
ContributorsAlostad, Hana (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Corman, Steven (Committee member) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking.
This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.
This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.
ContributorsLu, Yafeng (Author) / Maciejewski, Ross (Thesis advisor) / Cooke, Nancy J. (Committee member) / Liu, Huan (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Cyberbullying is a phenomenon which negatively affects individuals. Victims of the cyberbullying suffer from a range of mental issues, ranging from depression to low self-esteem. Due to the advent of the social media platforms, cyberbullying is becoming more and more prevalent. Traditional mechanisms to fight against cyberbullying include use of standards and guidelines, human moderators, use of blacklists based on profane words, and regular expressions to manually detect cyberbullying. However, these mechanisms fall short in social media and do not scale well. Users in social media use intentional evasive expressions like, obfuscation of abusive words, which necessitates the development of a sophisticated learning framework to automatically detect new cyberbullying behaviors. Cyberbullying detection in social media is a challenging task due to short, noisy and unstructured content and intentional obfuscation of the abusive words or phrases by social media users. Motivated by sociological and psychological findings on bullying behavior and its correlation with emotions, we propose to leverage the sentiment information to accurately detect cyberbullying behavior in social media by proposing an effective optimization framework. Experimental results on two real-world social media datasets show the superiority of the proposed framework. Further studies validate the effectiveness of leveraging sentiment information for cyberbullying detection.
ContributorsDani, Harsh (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis advisor) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017