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Description
Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The results suggested that, depending on the nature of data, optimal specification of (1) decision rules to select the covariate and its split value in a Classification Tree, (2) the number of covariates randomly sampled for selection, and (3) methods of estimating Random Forests propensity scores could potentially produce an unbiased average treatment effect estimate after propensity scores weighting by the odds adjustment. Compared to the logistic regression estimation model using the true propensity score model, Random Forests had an additional advantage in producing unbiased estimated standard error and correct statistical inference of the average treatment effect. The relationship between the balance on the covariates' means and the bias of average treatment effect estimate was examined both within and between conditions of the simulation. Within conditions, across repeated samples there was no noticeable correlation between the covariates' mean differences and the magnitude of bias of average treatment effect estimate for the covariates that were imbalanced before adjustment. Between conditions, small mean differences of covariates after propensity score adjustment were not sensitive enough to identify the optimal Random Forests model specification for propensity score analysis.
ContributorsCham, Hei Ning (Author) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Stephen G (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The construction industry has accepted the uncertainty that is included with every project that is initiated. Because of the existing uncertainty, best practices with risk management are commonly recommended and educated to industry participants. However, the current status of the construction industry's ability to manage risk was found to be limited, unstructured, and inadequate. Furthermore, many barriers block organizations from implementing and improving risk management practices. A significant barrier with improving risk management methods is the lack of evidence that clearly demonstrates the need to improve risk management practices. Logical explanations of the benefits of risk management doesn't provide the necessary justification or motivation needed for many organizations to dedicate resources towards improving risk management.
Nevertheless, some organizations understand the importance of risk management practices and have begun to measure their risk maturity in order to identify weaknesses and improve risk management practices. Risk maturity measures the organization's ability and perceptions towards risk management. It is possible that many of the barriers to improving risk management would not exist if increased risk maturity was found to have a positive correlation with successful project performance.
The comprehensive hypothesis of the research is that increased risk maturity improves project performance. An exploratory study was conducted on data collected to identify measurable benefits with risk management. Quantitative and qualitative data was collected on 266 construction projects over a seven year period. Multiple statistical analyses were performed on the data and found a positive correlations between risk maturity and project performance. A positive correlations was found between customer satisfaction and contractors risk maturity. Additional findings from the recorded data included the increased ability to predict risks during construction projects within an organization. These findings provide clear reasoning for organizations to devote additional resources in which improve their risk management practices.
Nevertheless, some organizations understand the importance of risk management practices and have begun to measure their risk maturity in order to identify weaknesses and improve risk management practices. Risk maturity measures the organization's ability and perceptions towards risk management. It is possible that many of the barriers to improving risk management would not exist if increased risk maturity was found to have a positive correlation with successful project performance.
The comprehensive hypothesis of the research is that increased risk maturity improves project performance. An exploratory study was conducted on data collected to identify measurable benefits with risk management. Quantitative and qualitative data was collected on 266 construction projects over a seven year period. Multiple statistical analyses were performed on the data and found a positive correlations between risk maturity and project performance. A positive correlations was found between customer satisfaction and contractors risk maturity. Additional findings from the recorded data included the increased ability to predict risks during construction projects within an organization. These findings provide clear reasoning for organizations to devote additional resources in which improve their risk management practices.
ContributorsPerrenoud, Anthony (Author) / Sullivan, Kenneth T. (Thesis advisor) / Weizel, Avi (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Owner organizations in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry are presented with a wide variety of project delivery approaches. Implementation of these approaches, while enticing due to their potential to save money, reduce schedule delays, or improve quality, is extremely difficult to accomplish and requires a concerted change management effort. Research in the field of organizational behavior cautions that perhaps more than half of all organizational change efforts fail to accomplish their intended objectives. This study utilizes an action research approach to analyze change message delivery within owner organizations, model owner project team readiness and adoption of change, and identify the most frequently encountered types of resistance from lead project members. The analysis methodology included Spearman's rank order correlation, variable selection testing via three methods of hierarchical linear regression, relative weight analysis, and one-way ANOVA. Key findings from this study include recommendations for communicating the change message within owner organizations, empirical validation of critical predictors for change readiness and change adoption among project teams, and identification of the most frequently encountered resistive behaviors within change implementation in the AEC industry. A key contribution of this research is the recommendation of change management strategies for use by change practitioners.
ContributorsLines, Brian (Author) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Thesis advisor) / Wiezel, Avi (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Qualifications based selection (QBS) of construction services uses a variety of criteria to evaluate proponents and select a contractor for the project. The criteria typically fall into three categories: past performance and technical capability, key personnel, and price, with price often being considered the most important factor in selection. Evaluation and the merits of the key personnel category is not well described or discussed in research. Prior research has investigated the evaluation criteria elements and their ability to differentiate proponents. This case study uses QBS evaluation data from fifty-eight construction projects to show that use of a structured interview process provides the highest level of differentiation of qualifications of proponents, as compared to the proposed price and the technical proposal. The results of the analysis also indicate: 1) the key personnel element (the interview) is statistically more important than price,
2) Contractors who propose on projects using QBS should use their best people in proposal response, and 3) Contractors should educate/prepare their teams for interviews, people count.
2) Contractors who propose on projects using QBS should use their best people in proposal response, and 3) Contractors should educate/prepare their teams for interviews, people count.
ContributorsSawyer, Jeff T (Author) / Sullivan, Kennth S (Thesis advisor) / Wiezel, Avi (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
ABSTRACT Facility managers have an important job in today's competitive business world by caring for the backbone of the corporation's capital. Maintaining assets and the support efforts cause facility managers to fight an uphill battle to prove the worth of their organizations. This thesis will discuss the important and flexible use of measurement and leadership reports and the benefits of justifying the work required to maintain or upgrade a facility. The task is streamlined by invoking accountability to subject experts. The facility manager must trust in the ability of his or her work force to get the job done. However, with accountability comes increased risk. Even though accountability may not alleviate total control or cease reactionary actions, facility managers can develop key leadership based reports to reassign accountability and measure subject matter experts while simultaneously reducing reactionary actions leading to increased cost. Identifying and reassigning risk that are not controlled to subject matter experts is imperative for effective facility management leadership and allows facility managers to create an accurate and solid facility management plan, supports the organization's succession plan, and allows the organization to focus on key competencies.
ContributorsTellefsen, Thor (Author) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Thesis advisor) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Current information on successful leadership and management practices is contradictory and inconsistent, which makes difficult to understand what successful business practices are and what are not. The purpose of this study is to identify a simple process that quickly and logically identifies consistent and inconsistent leadership and management criteria. The hypothesis proposed is that Information Measurement Theory (IMT) along with the Kashiwagi Solution Model (KSM) is a methodology than can differentiate between accurate and inaccurate principles the initial part of the study about authors in these areas show how information is conflictive, and also served to establish an initial baseline of recommended practices aligned with IMT. The one author that excels in comparison to the rest suits the "Initial Baseline Matrix from Deming" which composes the first model. The second model is denominated the "Full Extended KSM-Matrix" composed of all the LS characteristics found among all authors and IMT. Both models were tested-out for accuracy. The second part of the study was directed to evaluate the perception of individuals on these principles. Two different groups were evaluated, one group of people that had prior training and knowledge of IMT; another group of people without any knowledge of IMT. The results of the survey showed more confusion in the group of people without knowledge to IMT and improved consistency and less variation in the group of people with knowledge in IMT. The third part of the study, the analysis of case studies of success and failure, identified principles as contributors, and categorized them into LS/type "A" characteristics and RS/type "C" characteristics, by applying the KSM. The results validated the initial proposal and led to the conclusion that practices that fall into the LS side of the KSM will lead to success, while practices that fall into the RS of the KSM will lead to failure. The comparison and testing of both models indicated a dominant support of the IMT concepts as contributors to success; while the KSM model has a higher accuracy of prediction.
ContributorsReynolds, Harry (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis advisor) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
The discipline of continuing professional development (CPD) is well defined and established within a variety of industries, such as medical, legal, and financial. The built environment is a less defined and mature industry with respect to educational pathways and professional education, with no uniform structure. Occupational licensing, such as registered nurses, certified professional accountants, and others are well known within both their industries and the public. Additionally, occupational core-competencies are well established. Planning is a core skill set within the built environment and construction management. Definitions of the term “planning” vary quite broadly across the built environment, but generally includes activities such as risk identification, scope identification, and scheduling. Understanding how professionals in the built environment learn to plan is critical to meeting CPD needs for planning skills and the ability of a professional to “plan” effectively. Many planning tools and software have been developed, but often rely on an individual professional’s personal experiences and abilities. Limited literature in the field of professional education in the built environment has left a gap on the topic of how to train professionals in planning competencies. Survey results indicate that current training is not meeting the expectations of professionals, as only 16 percent of professionals are trained how to plan using their preferred method of learning. While on-the-job training is the primary format, the most preferred format is internal company training, but only 54 percent of companies provide this format. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis tests were conducted and revealed that organizations with internal training programs have higher employee satisfaction with their organization’s planning process. Further, organizations with internal training programs are seen as having a more formal internal planning process. Research is needed to develop CPD within construction management and provide the foundation upon which a professional education structure can be created. An andragogically-centered schema for a heuristic approach to construction CPD is developed and tested on a seminar for pre-project planning. The full instructional design of the seminar using the model is disclosed and seminar results showed positive results and participants achieved high levels of learning.
ContributorsHurtado, Kristen (Author) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Thesis advisor) / Wiezel, Avi (Committee member) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Public construction projects in Saudi Arabia have been experiencing performance issues for the past 30 years. There have been many research efforts and publications identifying the problem and potential causes, however, there have been minimal efforts identifying how to mitigate the problem and testing to validate proposed solutions. A literature search has shown that the academic research has had minimal impact in assisting the construction industry to improve its performance. This dissertation aimed to evaluate the impact of construction management research in Saudi construction industry (SCI), and to investigate barriers that hinder the diffusion of implementing the research outcomes in the construction sector in order to develop a research roadmap to bridge the gap between academic research and practice, using the experience of other organizations that have a successful experience in developing the impact of construction management research in the construction industry. In order to achieve the aim of the study, five main objectives were set up which are: evaluate the impact of construction management research in SCI, identify the barriers that affect the implementation of construction management research in SCI, develop a research roadmap to bridge the gap between the research and practice, validating the proposed solution, and proposed implementation plan and review the result from the implementation. A literature research was performed, using 5 academic databases, identifying the impact that R&D has had on the SCI. A questionnaire was also created surveying both researchers and industry professionals. The results show evidence that the current R&D process in Saudi Arabia is not helping the SCI to increase their performance, and needs to be improved. This study provides a potential solution, and an action plan that mirrors one of the most successful research and development programs in the construction industry in the world [+1915 tests, six different countries, 31 states in the U.S. and 98% customer satisfaction]. The solution proposed in this dissertation is unique to the strengths and weaknesses of the research and development programs at universities and research centers in Saudi Arabia. This study is the first study of its kind in Saudi Arabia.
ContributorsAlhammadi, Yasir (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis advisor) / Badger, William (Committee member) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017