Matching Items (16)
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- All Subjects: Bayesian statistical decision theory
- All Subjects: Tracking radar
- Creators: Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia
- Creators: Pan, Rong
- Creators: Thompson, Marilyn S
Description
The tracking of multiple targets becomes more challenging in complex environments due to the additional degrees of nonlinearity in the measurement model. In urban terrain, for example, there are multiple reflection path measurements that need to be exploited since line-of-sight observations are not always available. Multiple target tracking in urban terrain environments is traditionally implemented using sequential Monte Carlo filtering algorithms and data association techniques. However, data association techniques can be computationally intensive and require very strict conditions for efficient performance. This thesis investigates the probability hypothesis density (PHD) method for tracking multiple targets in urban environments. The PHD is based on the theory of random finite sets and it is implemented using the particle filter. Unlike data association methods, it can be used to estimate the number of targets as well as their corresponding tracks. A modified maximum-likelihood version of the PHD (MPHD) is proposed to automatically and adaptively estimate the measurement types available at each time step. Specifically, the MPHD allows measurement-to-nonlinearity associations such that the best matched measurement can be used at each time step, resulting in improved radar coverage and scene visibility. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the MPHD in improving tracking performance, both for tracking multiple targets and targets in clutter.
ContributorsZhou, Meng (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Tepedelenlioğlu, Cihan (Committee member) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Structural integrity is an important characteristic of performance for critical components used in applications such as aeronautics, materials, construction and transportation. When appraising the structural integrity of these components, evaluation methods must be accurate. In addition to possessing capability to perform damage detection, the ability to monitor the level of damage over time can provide extremely useful information in assessing the operational worthiness of a structure and in determining whether the structure should be repaired or removed from service. In this work, a sequential Bayesian approach with active sensing is employed for monitoring crack growth within fatigue-loaded materials. The monitoring approach is based on predicting crack damage state dynamics and modeling crack length observations. Since fatigue loading of a structural component can change while in service, an interacting multiple model technique is employed to estimate probabilities of different loading modes and incorporate this information in the crack length estimation problem. For the observation model, features are obtained from regions of high signal energy in the time-frequency plane and modeled for each crack length damage condition. Although this observation model approach exhibits high classification accuracy, the resolution characteristics can change depending upon the extent of the damage. Therefore, several different transmission waveforms and receiver sensors are considered to create multiple modes for making observations of crack damage. Resolution characteristics of the different observation modes are assessed using a predicted mean squared error criterion and observations are obtained using the predicted, optimal observation modes based on these characteristics. Calculation of the predicted mean square error metric can be computationally intensive, especially if performed in real time, and an approximation method is proposed. With this approach, the real time computational burden is decreased significantly and the number of possible observation modes can be increased. Using sensor measurements from real experiments, the overall sequential Bayesian estimation approach, with the adaptive capability of varying the state dynamics and observation modes, is demonstrated for tracking crack damage.
ContributorsHuff, Daniel W (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Chakrabarti, Chaitali (Committee member) / Chattopadhyay, Aditi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Adaptive processing and classification of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are important in eliminating the strenuous process of manually annotating ECG recordings for clinical use. Such algorithms require robust models whose parameters can adequately describe the ECG signals. Although different dynamic statistical models describing ECG signals currently exist, they depend considerably on a priori information and user-specified model parameters. Also, ECG beat morphologies, which vary greatly across patients and disease states, cannot be uniquely characterized by a single model. In this work, sequential Bayesian based methods are used to appropriately model and adaptively select the corresponding model parameters of ECG signals. An adaptive framework based on a sequential Bayesian tracking method is proposed to adaptively select the cardiac parameters that minimize the estimation error, thus precluding the need for pre-processing. Simulations using real ECG data from the online Physionet database demonstrate the improvement in performance of the proposed algorithm in accurately estimating critical heart disease parameters. In addition, two new approaches to ECG modeling are presented using the interacting multiple model and the sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo technique with adaptive model selection. Both these methods can adaptively choose between different models for various ECG beat morphologies without requiring prior ECG information, as demonstrated by using real ECG signals. A supervised Bayesian maximum-likelihood (ML) based classifier uses the estimated model parameters to classify different types of cardiac arrhythmias. However, the non-availability of sufficient amounts of representative training data and the large inter-patient variability pose a challenge to the existing supervised learning algorithms, resulting in a poor classification performance. In addition, recently developed unsupervised learning methods require a priori knowledge on the number of diseases to cluster the ECG data, which often evolves over time. In order to address these issues, an adaptive learning ECG classification method that uses Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture models is proposed. This approach does not place any restriction on the number of disease classes, nor does it require any training data. This algorithm is adapted to be patient-specific by labeling or identifying the generated mixtures using the Bayesian ML method, assuming the availability of labeled training data.
ContributorsEdla, Shwetha Reddy (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Chakrabarti, Chaitali (Committee member) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Tepedelenlioğlu, Cihan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Electrical neural activity detection and tracking have many applications in medical research and brain computer interface technologies. In this thesis, we focus on the development of advanced signal processing algorithms to track neural activity and on the mapping of these algorithms onto hardware to enable real-time tracking. At the heart of these algorithms is particle filtering (PF), a sequential Monte Carlo technique used to estimate the unknown parameters of dynamic systems. First, we analyze the bottlenecks in existing PF algorithms, and we propose a new parallel PF (PPF) algorithm based on the independent Metropolis-Hastings (IMH) algorithm. We show that the proposed PPF-IMH algorithm improves the root mean-squared error (RMSE) estimation performance, and we demonstrate that a parallel implementation of the algorithm results in significant reduction in inter-processor communication. We apply our implementation on a Xilinx Virtex-5 field programmable gate array (FPGA) platform to demonstrate that, for a one-dimensional problem, the PPF-IMH architecture with four processing elements and 1,000 particles can process input samples at 170 kHz by using less than 5% FPGA resources. We also apply the proposed PPF-IMH to waveform-agile sensing to achieve real-time tracking of dynamic targets with high RMSE tracking performance. We next integrate the PPF-IMH algorithm to track the dynamic parameters in neural sensing when the number of neural dipole sources is known. We analyze the computational complexity of a PF based method and propose the use of multiple particle filtering (MPF) to reduce the complexity. We demonstrate the improved performance of MPF using numerical simulations with both synthetic and real data. We also propose an FPGA implementation of the MPF algorithm and show that the implementation supports real-time tracking. For the more realistic scenario of automatically estimating an unknown number of time-varying neural dipole sources, we propose a new approach based on the probability hypothesis density filtering (PHDF) algorithm. The PHDF is implemented using particle filtering (PF-PHDF), and it is applied in a closed-loop to first estimate the number of dipole sources and then their corresponding amplitude, location and orientation parameters. We demonstrate the improved tracking performance of the proposed PF-PHDF algorithm and map it onto a Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA platform to show its real-time implementation potential. Finally, we propose the use of sensor scheduling and compressive sensing techniques to reduce the number of active sensors, and thus overall power consumption, of electroencephalography (EEG) systems. We propose an efficient sensor scheduling algorithm which adaptively configures EEG sensors at each measurement time interval to reduce the number of sensors needed for accurate tracking. We combine the sensor scheduling method with PF-PHDF and implement the system on an FPGA platform to achieve real-time tracking. We also investigate the sparsity of EEG signals and integrate compressive sensing with PF to estimate neural activity. Simulation results show that both sensor scheduling and compressive sensing based methods achieve comparable tracking performance with significantly reduced number of sensors.
ContributorsMiao, Lifeng (Author) / Chakrabarti, Chaitali (Thesis advisor) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Junshan (Committee member) / Bliss, Daniel (Committee member) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
In this thesis, an integrated waveform-agile multi-modal tracking-beforedetect sensing system is investigated and the performance is evaluated using an experimental platform. The sensing system of adapting asymmetric multi-modal sensing operation platforms using radio frequency (RF) radar and electro-optical (EO) sensors allows for integration of complementary information from different sensors. However, there are many challenges to overcome, including tracking low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) targets, waveform configurations that can optimize tracking performance and statistically dependent measurements. Address some of these challenges, a particle filter (PF) based recursive waveformagile track-before-detect (TBD) algorithm is developed to avoid information loss caused by conventional detection under low SNR environments. Furthermore, a waveform-agile selection technique is integrated into the PF-TBD to allow for adaptive waveform configurations. The embedded exponential family (EEF) approach is used to approximate distributions of parameters of dependent RF and EO measurements and to further improve target detection rate and tracking performance. The performance of the integrated algorithm is evaluated using real data from three experimental scenarios.
ContributorsLiu, Shubo (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Duman, Tolga (Committee member) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In this thesis, an adaptive waveform selection technique for dynamic target tracking under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions is investigated. The approach is integrated with a track-before-detect (TBD) algorithm and uses delay-Doppler matched filter (MF) outputs as raw measurements without setting any threshold for extracting delay-Doppler estimates. The particle filter (PF) Bayesian sequential estimation approach is used with the TBD algorithm (PF-TBD) to estimate the dynamic target state. A waveform-agile TBD technique is proposed that integrates the PF-TBD with a waveform selection technique. The new approach predicts the waveform to transmit at the next time step by minimizing the predicted mean-squared error (MSE). As a result, the radar parameters are adaptively and optimally selected for superior performance. Based on previous work, this thesis highlights the applicability of the predicted covariance matrix to the lower SNR waveform-agile tracking problem. The adaptive waveform selection algorithm's MSE performance was compared against fixed waveforms using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that the adaptive approach performed at least as well as the best fixed waveform when focusing on estimating only position or only velocity. When these estimates were weighted by different amounts, then the adaptive performance exceeded all fixed waveforms. This improvement in performance demonstrates the utility of the predicted covariance in waveform design, at low SNR conditions that are poorly handled with more traditional tracking algorithms.
ContributorsPiwowarski, Ryan (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Chakrabarti, Chaitali (Committee member) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Optimal experimental design for generalized linear models is often done using a pseudo-Bayesian approach that integrates the design criterion across a prior distribution on the parameter values. This approach ignores the lack of utility of certain models contained in the prior, and a case is demonstrated where the heavy focus on such hopeless models results in a design with poor performance and with wild swings in coverage probabilities for Wald-type confidence intervals. Design construction using a utility-based approach is shown to result in much more stable coverage probabilities in the area of greatest concern.
The pseudo-Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of optimal design construction under dependent observations. Often, correlation between observations exists due to restrictions on randomization. Several techniques for optimal design construction are proposed in the case of the conditional response distribution being a natural exponential family member but with a normally distributed block effect . The reviewed pseudo-Bayesian approach is compared to an approach based on substituting the marginal likelihood with the joint likelihood and an approach based on projections of the score function (often called quasi-likelihood). These approaches are compared for several models with normal, Poisson, and binomial conditional response distributions via the true determinant of the expected Fisher information matrix where the dispersion of the random blocks is considered a nuisance parameter. A case study using the developed methods is performed.
The joint and quasi-likelihood methods are then extended to address the case when the magnitude of random block dispersion is of concern. Again, a simulation study over several models is performed, followed by a case study when the conditional response distribution is a Poisson distribution.
The pseudo-Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of optimal design construction under dependent observations. Often, correlation between observations exists due to restrictions on randomization. Several techniques for optimal design construction are proposed in the case of the conditional response distribution being a natural exponential family member but with a normally distributed block effect . The reviewed pseudo-Bayesian approach is compared to an approach based on substituting the marginal likelihood with the joint likelihood and an approach based on projections of the score function (often called quasi-likelihood). These approaches are compared for several models with normal, Poisson, and binomial conditional response distributions via the true determinant of the expected Fisher information matrix where the dispersion of the random blocks is considered a nuisance parameter. A case study using the developed methods is performed.
The joint and quasi-likelihood methods are then extended to address the case when the magnitude of random block dispersion is of concern. Again, a simulation study over several models is performed, followed by a case study when the conditional response distribution is a Poisson distribution.
ContributorsHassler, Edgar (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Silvestrini, Rachel T. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie M. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Biological and biomedical measurements, when adequately analyzed and processed, can be used to impart quantitative diagnosis during primary health care consultation to improve patient adherence to recommended treatments. For example, analyzing neural recordings from neurostimulators implanted in patients with neurological disorders can be used by a physician to adjust detrimental stimulation parameters to improve treatment. As another example, biosequences, such as sequences from peptide microarrays obtained from a biological sample, can potentially provide pre-symptomatic diagnosis for infectious diseases when processed to associate antibodies to specific pathogens or infectious agents. This work proposes advanced statistical signal processing and machine learning methodologies to assess neurostimulation from neural recordings and to extract diagnostic information from biosequences.
For locating specific cognitive and behavioral information in different regions of the brain, neural recordings are processed using sequential Bayesian filtering methods to detect and estimate both the number of neural sources and their corresponding parameters. Time-frequency based feature selection algorithms are combined with adaptive machine learning approaches to suppress physiological and non-physiological artifacts present in neural recordings. Adaptive processing and unsupervised clustering methods applied to neural recordings are also used to suppress neurostimulation artifacts and classify between various behavior tasks to assess the level of neurostimulation in patients.
For pathogen detection and identification, random peptide sequences and their properties are first uniquely mapped to highly-localized signals and their corresponding parameters in the time-frequency plane. Time-frequency signal processing methods are then applied to estimate antigenic determinants or epitope candidates for detecting and identifying potential pathogens.
For locating specific cognitive and behavioral information in different regions of the brain, neural recordings are processed using sequential Bayesian filtering methods to detect and estimate both the number of neural sources and their corresponding parameters. Time-frequency based feature selection algorithms are combined with adaptive machine learning approaches to suppress physiological and non-physiological artifacts present in neural recordings. Adaptive processing and unsupervised clustering methods applied to neural recordings are also used to suppress neurostimulation artifacts and classify between various behavior tasks to assess the level of neurostimulation in patients.
For pathogen detection and identification, random peptide sequences and their properties are first uniquely mapped to highly-localized signals and their corresponding parameters in the time-frequency plane. Time-frequency signal processing methods are then applied to estimate antigenic determinants or epitope candidates for detecting and identifying potential pathogens.
ContributorsMaurer, Alexander Joseph (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Bliss, Daniel (Committee member) / Chakrabarti, Chaitali (Committee member) / Kovvali, Narayan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Bayesian networks are powerful tools in system reliability assessment due to their flexibility in modeling the reliability structure of complex systems. This dissertation develops Bayesian network models for system reliability analysis through the use of Bayesian inference techniques.
Bayesian networks generalize fault trees by allowing components and subsystems to be related by conditional probabilities instead of deterministic relationships; thus, they provide analytical advantages to the situation when the failure structure is not well understood, especially during the product design stage. In order to tackle this problem, one needs to utilize auxiliary information such as the reliability information from similar products and domain expertise. For this purpose, a Bayesian network approach is proposed to incorporate data from functional analysis and parent products. The functions with low reliability and their impact on other functions in the network are identified, so that design changes can be suggested for system reliability improvement.
A complex system does not necessarily have all components being monitored at the same time, causing another challenge in the reliability assessment problem. Sometimes there are a limited number of sensors deployed in the system to monitor the states of some components or subsystems, but not all of them. Data simultaneously collected from multiple sensors on the same system are analyzed using a Bayesian network approach, and the conditional probabilities of the network are estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Several data scenarios with discrete, continuous and hybrid data (both discrete and continuous data) are analyzed. Posterior distributions of the reliability parameters of the system and components are assessed using simultaneous data.
Finally, a Bayesian framework is proposed to incorporate different sources of prior information and reconcile these different sources, including expert opinions and component information, in order to form a prior distribution for the system. Incorporating expert opinion in the form of pseudo-observations substantially simplifies statistical modeling, as opposed to the pooling techniques and supra Bayesian methods used for combining prior distributions in the literature.
The methods proposed are demonstrated with several case studies.
Bayesian networks generalize fault trees by allowing components and subsystems to be related by conditional probabilities instead of deterministic relationships; thus, they provide analytical advantages to the situation when the failure structure is not well understood, especially during the product design stage. In order to tackle this problem, one needs to utilize auxiliary information such as the reliability information from similar products and domain expertise. For this purpose, a Bayesian network approach is proposed to incorporate data from functional analysis and parent products. The functions with low reliability and their impact on other functions in the network are identified, so that design changes can be suggested for system reliability improvement.
A complex system does not necessarily have all components being monitored at the same time, causing another challenge in the reliability assessment problem. Sometimes there are a limited number of sensors deployed in the system to monitor the states of some components or subsystems, but not all of them. Data simultaneously collected from multiple sensors on the same system are analyzed using a Bayesian network approach, and the conditional probabilities of the network are estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Several data scenarios with discrete, continuous and hybrid data (both discrete and continuous data) are analyzed. Posterior distributions of the reliability parameters of the system and components are assessed using simultaneous data.
Finally, a Bayesian framework is proposed to incorporate different sources of prior information and reconcile these different sources, including expert opinions and component information, in order to form a prior distribution for the system. Incorporating expert opinion in the form of pseudo-observations substantially simplifies statistical modeling, as opposed to the pooling techniques and supra Bayesian methods used for combining prior distributions in the literature.
The methods proposed are demonstrated with several case studies.
ContributorsYontay, Petek (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan L. (Committee member) / Du, Xiaoping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Many methodological approaches have been utilized to predict student retention and persistence over the years, yet few have utilized a Bayesian framework. It is believed this is due in part to the absence of an established process for guiding educational researchers reared in a frequentist perspective into the realms of Bayesian analysis and educational data mining. The current study aimed to address this by providing a model-building process for developing a Bayesian network (BN) that leveraged educational data mining, Bayesian analysis, and traditional iterative model-building techniques in order to predict whether community college students will stop out at the completion of each of their first six terms. The study utilized exploratory and confirmatory techniques to reduce an initial pool of more than 50 potential predictor variables to a parsimonious final BN with only four predictor variables. The average in-sample classification accuracy rate for the model was 80% (Cohen's κ = 53%). The model was shown to be generalizable across samples with an average out-of-sample classification accuracy rate of 78% (Cohen's κ = 49%). The classification rates for the BN were also found to be superior to the classification rates produced by an analog frequentist discrete-time survival analysis model.
ContributorsArcuria, Philip (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel B (Committee member) / Thompson, Marilyn S (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015