Matching Items (11)
Filtering by
- All Subjects: Sustainability
- Genre: Doctoral Dissertation
- Creators: Chester, Mikhail V
- Resource Type: Text
Description
Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system is necessary to overcome sustainability challenges and scenarios can be used to explore plausible and desirable futures to inform a transition, but this requires some methodological refinements. This dissertation refines scenario methodology to generate water governance scenarios for metropolitan Phoenix that: (i) feature enhanced stakeholder participation; (ii) incorporate normative values and preferences; (iii) focus on governance actors and their activities; and (iv) meet an expanded set of quality criteria. The first study in the dissertation analyzes and evaluates participatory climate change scenarios to provide recommendations for the construction and use of scenarios that advance climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. The second study proposes and tests a set of plausibility indications to substantiate or evaluate claims that scenarios and future projections could become reality, helping to establish the legitimacy of radically different or transformative scenarios among an extended peer community. The case study of water governance begins with the third study, which includes a current state analysis and sustainability appraisal of the Phoenix-area water system. This is followed by a fourth study which surveys Phoenix-area water decision-makers to better understand water-related preferences for use in scenario construction. The fifth and final study applies a multi-method approach to construct future scenarios of water governance in metropolitan Phoenix in 2030 using stakeholder preferences, among other normative frames, and testing systemic impacts with WaterSim 5.0, a dynamic simulation model of water in the region. The scenarios are boundary objects around which stakeholders can weigh tradeoffs, set priorities and reflect on impacts of water-related activities, broadening policy dialogues around water governance in central Arizona. Together the five studies advance transformational sustainability research by refining methods to engage stakeholders in crafting futures that define how individuals and institutions should operate in transformed and sustainable systems.
ContributorsKeeler, Lauren Withycombe (Author) / Wiek, Arnim (Thesis advisor) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Lang, Daniel J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluates the relative performance of multiple products, services, or technologies with the purpose of selecting the least impactful alternative. Nevertheless, characterized results are seldom conclusive. When one alternative performs best in some aspects, it may also performs worse in others. These tradeoffs among different impact categories make it difficult to identify environmentally preferable alternatives. To help reconcile this dilemma, LCA analysts have the option to apply normalization and weighting to generate comparisons based upon a single score. However, these approaches can be misleading because they suffer from problems of reference dataset incompletion, linear and fully compensatory aggregation, masking of salient tradeoffs, weight insensitivity and difficulties incorporating uncertainty in performance assessment and weights. Consequently, most LCA studies truncate impacts assessment at characterization, which leaves decision-makers to confront highly uncertain multi-criteria problems without the aid of analytic guideposts. This study introduces Stochastic Multi attribute Analysis (SMAA), a novel approach to normalization and weighting of characterized life-cycle inventory data for use in comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The proposed method avoids the bias introduced by external normalization references, and is capable of exploring high uncertainty in both the input parameters and weights.
ContributorsPrado, Valentina (Author) / Seager, Thomas P (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Kullapa Soratana (Committee member) / Tervonen, Tommi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities were assessed for future heat waves due to climate change. Critical processes and component relationships were identified and characterized with consideration for the terminal event of service outages, including cascading failures in transmission-level components that can result in blackouts. The most critical dependency identified was the increase in peak electricity demand with higher air temperatures. Historical and future air temperatures were characterized within and across Los Angeles County, California (LAC) and Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. LAC was identified as more vulnerable to heat waves than Phoenix due to a wider distribution of historical temperatures. Two approaches were developed to estimate peak demand based on air temperatures, a top-down statistical model and bottom-up spatial building energy model. Both approaches yielded similar results, in that peak demand should increase sub-linearly at temperatures above 40°C (104 °F) due to saturation in the coincidence of air conditioning (AC) duty cycles. Spatial projections for peak demand were developed for LAC to 2060 considering potential changes in population, building type, building efficiency, AC penetration, appliance efficiency, and air temperatures due climate change. These projections were spatially allocated to delivery system components (generation, transmission lines, and substations) to consider their vulnerability in terms of thermal de-rated capacity and weather adjusted load factor (load divided by capacity). Peak hour electricity demand was projected to increase in residential and commercial sectors by 0.2–6.5 GW (2–51%) by 2060. All grid components, except those near Santa Monica Beach, were projected to experience 2–20% capacity loss due to air temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Based on scenario projections, and substation load factors for Southern California Edison (SCE), SCE will require 848—6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional substation capacity or peak shaving in its LAC service territories by 2060 to meet additional demand associated with population growth projections.
ContributorsBurillo, Daniel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Energy use within urban building stocks is continuing to increase globally as populations expand and access to electricity improves. This projected increase in demand could require deployment of new generation capacity, but there is potential to offset some of this demand through modification of the buildings themselves. Building stocks are quasi-permanent infrastructures which have enduring influence on urban energy consumption, and research is needed to understand: 1) how development patterns constrain energy use decisions and 2) how cities can achieve energy and environmental goals given the constraints of the stock. This requires a thorough evaluation of both the growth of the stock and as well as the spatial distribution of use throughout the city. In this dissertation, a case study in Los Angeles County, California (LAC) is used to quantify urban growth, forecast future energy use under climate change, and to make recommendations for mitigating energy consumption increases. A reproducible methodological framework is included for application to other urban areas.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
ContributorsReyna, Janet Lorel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Gurney, Kevin (Committee member) / Reddy, T. Agami (Committee member) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
'Attributional' Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) quantitatively tracks the potential environmental impacts of international value chains, in retrospective, while ensuring that burden shifting is avoided. Despite the growing popularity of LCA as a decision-support tool, there are numerous concerns relating to uncertainty and variability in LCA that affects its reliability and credibility. It is pertinent that some part of future research in LCA be guided towards increasing reliability and credibility for decision-making, while utilizing the LCA framework established by ISO 14040.
In this dissertation, I have synthesized the present state of knowledge and application of uncertainty and variability in ‘attributional’ LCA, and contribute to its quantitative assessment.
Firstly, the present state of addressment of uncertainty and variability in LCA is consolidated and reviewed. It is evident that sources of uncertainty and variability exist in the following areas: ISO standards, supplementary guides, software tools, life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, all four methodological phases of LCA, and use of LCA information. One source of uncertainty and variability, each, is identified, selected, quantified, and its implications discussed.
The use of surrogate LCI data in lieu of missing dataset(s) or data-gaps is a source of uncertainty. Despite the widespread use of surrogate data, there has been no effort to (1) establish any form of guidance for the appropriate selection of surrogate data and, (2) estimate the uncertainty associated with the choice and use of surrogate data. A formal expert elicitation-based methodology to select the most appropriate surrogates and to quantify the associated uncertainty was proposed and implemented.
Product-evolution in a non-uniform manner is a source of temporal variability that is presently not considered in LCA modeling. The resulting use of outdated LCA information will lead to misguided decisions affecting the issue at concern and eventually the environment. In order to demonstrate product-evolution within the scope of ISO 14044, and given that variability cannot be reduced, the sources of product-evolution were identified, generalized, analyzed and their implications (individual and coupled) on LCA results are quantified.
Finally, recommendations were provided for the advancement of robustness of 'attributional' LCA, with respect to uncertainty and variability.
In this dissertation, I have synthesized the present state of knowledge and application of uncertainty and variability in ‘attributional’ LCA, and contribute to its quantitative assessment.
Firstly, the present state of addressment of uncertainty and variability in LCA is consolidated and reviewed. It is evident that sources of uncertainty and variability exist in the following areas: ISO standards, supplementary guides, software tools, life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, all four methodological phases of LCA, and use of LCA information. One source of uncertainty and variability, each, is identified, selected, quantified, and its implications discussed.
The use of surrogate LCI data in lieu of missing dataset(s) or data-gaps is a source of uncertainty. Despite the widespread use of surrogate data, there has been no effort to (1) establish any form of guidance for the appropriate selection of surrogate data and, (2) estimate the uncertainty associated with the choice and use of surrogate data. A formal expert elicitation-based methodology to select the most appropriate surrogates and to quantify the associated uncertainty was proposed and implemented.
Product-evolution in a non-uniform manner is a source of temporal variability that is presently not considered in LCA modeling. The resulting use of outdated LCA information will lead to misguided decisions affecting the issue at concern and eventually the environment. In order to demonstrate product-evolution within the scope of ISO 14044, and given that variability cannot be reduced, the sources of product-evolution were identified, generalized, analyzed and their implications (individual and coupled) on LCA results are quantified.
Finally, recommendations were provided for the advancement of robustness of 'attributional' LCA, with respect to uncertainty and variability.
ContributorsSubramanian, Vairavan (Author) / Golden, Jay S (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden R. (Committee member) / Dooley, Kevin J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
With less than seven years left to reach the ambitious targets of the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is imperative to understand how the SDGs are operationalized in practice to support effective governance. One integrative approach, the water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus, has been proposed to facilitate SDGs planning and implementation by incorporating synergies, co-benefits, and trade-offs. In this dissertation, I conduct three interrelated WEF nexus studies using a sustainability lens to develop new approaches and identify actionable measures to support the SDGs. The first paper is a systematic literature review (2015 – 2022) to investigate the extent to which WEF nexus research has generated actionable knowledge to achieve the SDGs. The findings show that the WEF nexus literature explicitly considering the SDGs mainly focuses on governance and environmental protection, with fewer studies focusing on target populations and affordability. In the second paper, I reframed the water quality concerns using a nexus and systems thinking approach in a FEW nexus hotspot, the Rio Negro Basin (RNB) in Uruguay. While Uruguay is committed to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, sustainability challenges endure in managing synergies and trade-offs, resulting in strategy setbacks for the sustainable development of food, land, water, and oceans. Reframing the water quality problem facilitated the identification of potential alternative intervention points to support local problem-solving capacity. In the third paper, I conducted semi-structured interviews and examined the meeting transcripts of the RNB Commission to understand local perspectives about how the activities and initiatives taking place in the basin enhance or diminish the overall sustainability. Sustainability criteria for river basin planning and management were operationalized through qualitative appraisal questions. The case of the RNB illustrates the challenges of coordinating the national development agenda to local livelihood. This dissertation advances the WEF nexus and sustainability science literature by shedding light on the implications of the research trend to support the SDGs, as well as reframing and appraising a persistent water quality problem to support sustainable development.
ContributorsOjeda Matos, Glorynel (Author) / White, Dave D (Thesis advisor) / Brundiers, Katja (Committee member) / Garcia, Margaret (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Traditional infrastructure design approaches were born with industrialization. During this time the relatively stable environments allowed infrastructure systems to reliably provide service with networks designed to precise parameters and organizations fixated on maximizing efficiency. Now, infrastructure systems face the challenge of operating in the Anthropocene, an era of complexity. The environments in which infrastructure systems operate are changing more rapidly than the technologies and governance systems of infrastructure. Infrastructure systems will need to be resilient to navigate stability and instability and avoid obsolescence. This dissertation addresses how infrastructure systems could be designed for the Anthropocene, assessing technologies able to operate with uncertainty, rethinking the principles of technology design, and restructuring infrastructure governance. Resilience, in engineering, has often been defined as resistance to known disturbances with a focus on infrastructure assets. Resilience, more broadly reviewed, includes resistance, adaptation, and transformation across physical and governance domains. This dissertation constructs a foundation for resilient infrastructure through an assessment of resilience paradigms in engineering, complexity and deep uncertainty (Chapter 2), ecology (Chapter 3), and organizational change and leadership (Chapter 4). The second chapter reconciles frameworks of complexity and deep uncertainty to help infrastructure managers navigate the instability infrastructure systems face, with a focus on climate change. The third chapter identifies competencies of resilience in infrastructure theory and practice and compares those competencies with ‘Life’s Principles’ in ecology, presenting opportunities for growth and innovation in infrastructure resilience and highlighting the need for satisficed (to satisfy and suffice) solutions. The fourth chapter navigates pressures of exploitation and exploration that infrastructure institutions face during periods of stability and instability, proposing leadership capabilities to enhance institutional resilience. Finally, the dissertation is concluded with a chapter synthesizing the previous chapters, providing guidance for alternative design approaches for advancing resilient infrastructure. Combined, the work challenges the basic mental models used by engineers when approaching infrastructure design and recommends new ways of doing and thinking for the accelerating and increasingly uncertain conditions of the future.
ContributorsHelmrich, Alysha Marie (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Grimm, Nancy B (Committee member) / Garcia, Margaret (Committee member) / Meerow, Sara (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Infrastructure managers are continually challenged to reorient their organizations to mitigate disturbances. Disturbances to infrastructure constantly intensify, and the world and its intricate systems are becoming more connected and complex. This complexity often leads to disturbances and cascading failures. Some of these events unfold in extreme ways previously unimagined (i.e., Black Swan events). Infrastructure managers currently seek pathways through this complexity. To this end, reimagined – multifaceted – definitions of resilience must inform future decisions. Moreover, the hazardous environment of the Anthropocene demands flexibility and dynamic reprioritization of infrastructure and resources during disturbances. In this dissertation, the introduction will briefly explain foundational concepts, frameworks, and models that will inform the rest of this work. Chapter 2 investigates the concept of dynamic criticality: the skill to reprioritize amidst disturbances, repeating this process with each new disturbance. There is a dearth of insight requisite skillsets for infrastructure organizations to attain dynamic criticality. Therefore, this dissertation searches other industries and finds goals, structures, sensemaking, and strategic best practices to propose a contextualized framework for infrastructure. Chapters 3 and 4 seek insight into modeling infrastructure interdependencies and cascading failure to elucidate extreme outcomes such as Black Swans. Chapter 3 explores this concept through a theoretical analysis considering the use of realistic but fictional (i.e., synthetic) models to simulate interdependent behavior and cascading failures. This chapter also discusses potential uses of synthetic networks for infrastructure resilience research and barriers to future success. Chapter 4 tests the preceding theoretical analysis with an empirical study. Chapter 4 builds realistic networks with dependency between power and water models and simulates cascading failure. The discussion considers the future application of similar modeling efforts and how these techniques can help infrastructure managers scan the horizon for Black Swans. Finally, Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation with a synthesis of the findings from the previous chapters, discusses the boundaries and limitations, and proposes inspirations for future work.
ContributorsHoff, Ryan Michael (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / McPhearson, Timon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
This dissertation advances the capability of water infrastructure utilities to anticipate and adapt to vulnerabilities in their systems from temperature increase and interdependencies with other infrastructure systems. Impact assessment models of increased heat and interdependencies were developed which incorporate probability, spatial, temporal, and operational information. Key findings from the models are that with increased heat the increased likelihood of water quality non-compliances is particularly concerning, the anticipated increases in different hardware components generate different levels of concern starting with iron pipes, then pumps, and then PVC pipes, the effects of temperature increase on hardware components and on service losses are non-linear due to spatial criticality of components, and that modeling spatial and operational complexity helps to identify potential pathways of failure propagation between infrastructure systems. Exploring different parameters of the models allowed for comparison of institutional strategies. Key findings are that either preventative maintenance or repair strategies can completely offset additional outages from increased temperatures though-- improved repair times reduce overall duration of outages more than preventative maintenance, and that coordinated strategies across utilities could be effective for mitigating vulnerability.
ContributorsBondank, Emily (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin L (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan G (Committee member) / Seager, Thomas P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus refers to the interactions, trade-offs, and relationships between the three resources and their related governance sectors. Given the significant interdependencies, decisions made in one sector can affect the other two; thus, integrated governance can reduce unintended consequences and lead towards increased resource security and sustainability. Despite the known benefits, many governance decisions continue to be made in “silos,” where stakeholders do not coordinate across sectoral boundaries. Scholars have begun to identify barriers to the implementation of integrated FEW nexus governance, yet there is still minimal understanding of the reasons why these barriers exist and no theoretical framework for evaluating or assessing FEW nexus governance. Integrating the theory of collaborative governance with the concept of the FEW nexus provides an opportunity to better understand the barriers to and structures of FEW nexus governance and to propose solutions for increased collaborative FEW nexus governance in practice. To investigate this governance system, I examined the collaborative governance of the FEW nexus in the context of extreme urban water challenges in two urban case cities: Phoenix, Arizona, USA and Cape Town, South Africa. First, I performed a media analysis of the 2018 Cape Town water crisis to understand the impact of the water crisis on the FEW nexus resource system and the collaborative governance employed to respond to that crisis. Second, I conducted a systematic case study of FEW nexus governance in Phoenix, Arizona to understand barriers to collaborative governance implementation in the system and to identify opportunities to overcome these barriers. Finally, I presented a framework of indicators to assess the collaborative governance of the local FEW nexus. This dissertation will advance the sustainability literature by moving the concept of FEW nexus governance from theory and conceptualization towards operationalization and measurement.
ContributorsJones, Jaime Leah (Author) / White, Dave D (Thesis advisor) / Melnick, Rob (Committee member) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021