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Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system

Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system is necessary to overcome sustainability challenges and scenarios can be used to explore plausible and desirable futures to inform a transition, but this requires some methodological refinements. This dissertation refines scenario methodology to generate water governance scenarios for metropolitan Phoenix that: (i) feature enhanced stakeholder participation; (ii) incorporate normative values and preferences; (iii) focus on governance actors and their activities; and (iv) meet an expanded set of quality criteria. The first study in the dissertation analyzes and evaluates participatory climate change scenarios to provide recommendations for the construction and use of scenarios that advance climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. The second study proposes and tests a set of plausibility indications to substantiate or evaluate claims that scenarios and future projections could become reality, helping to establish the legitimacy of radically different or transformative scenarios among an extended peer community. The case study of water governance begins with the third study, which includes a current state analysis and sustainability appraisal of the Phoenix-area water system. This is followed by a fourth study which surveys Phoenix-area water decision-makers to better understand water-related preferences for use in scenario construction. The fifth and final study applies a multi-method approach to construct future scenarios of water governance in metropolitan Phoenix in 2030 using stakeholder preferences, among other normative frames, and testing systemic impacts with WaterSim 5.0, a dynamic simulation model of water in the region. The scenarios are boundary objects around which stakeholders can weigh tradeoffs, set priorities and reflect on impacts of water-related activities, broadening policy dialogues around water governance in central Arizona. Together the five studies advance transformational sustainability research by refining methods to engage stakeholders in crafting futures that define how individuals and institutions should operate in transformed and sustainable systems.
ContributorsKeeler, Lauren Withycombe (Author) / Wiek, Arnim (Thesis advisor) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Lang, Daniel J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Sustainability depends in part on our capacity to resolve dilemmas of the commons in Coupled Infrastructure Systems (CIS). Thus, we need to know more about how to incentivize individuals to take collective action to manage shared resources. Moreover, given that we will experience new and more extreme weather events due

Sustainability depends in part on our capacity to resolve dilemmas of the commons in Coupled Infrastructure Systems (CIS). Thus, we need to know more about how to incentivize individuals to take collective action to manage shared resources. Moreover, given that we will experience new and more extreme weather events due to climate change, we need to learn how to increase the robustness of CIS to those shocks. This dissertation studies irrigation systems to contribute to the development of an empirically based theory of commons governance for robust systems. I first studied the eight institutional design principles (DPs) for long enduring systems of shared resources that the Nobel Prize winner Elinor Ostrom proposed in 1990. I performed a critical literature review of 64 studies that looked at the institutional configuration of CIS, and based on my findings I propose some modifications of their definitions and application in research and policy making. I then studied how the revisited design principles, when analyzed conjointly with biophysical and ethnographic characteristics of CISs, perform to avoid over-appropriation, poverty and critical conflicts among users of an irrigation system. After carrying out a meta-analysis of 28 cases around the world, I found that particular combinations of those variables related to population size, countries corruption, the condition of water storage, monitoring of users behavior, and involving users in the decision making process for the commons governance, were sufficient to obtain the desired outcomes. The two last studies were based on the Peruvian Piura Basin, a CIS that has been exposed to environmental shocks for decades. I used secondary and primary data to carry out a longitudinal study using as guidance the robustness framework, and different hypothesis from prominent collapse theories to draw potential explanations. I then developed a dynamic model that shows how at the current situation it is more effective to invest in rules enforcement than in the improvement of the physical infrastructure (e.g. reservoir). Finally, I explored different strategies to increase the robustness of the system, through enabling collective action in the Basin.
ContributorsRubinos, Cathy (Author) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Abbott, Joshua K (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus A (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
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With less than seven years left to reach the ambitious targets of the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is imperative to understand how the SDGs are operationalized in practice to support effective governance. One integrative approach, the water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus, has been proposed to

With less than seven years left to reach the ambitious targets of the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is imperative to understand how the SDGs are operationalized in practice to support effective governance. One integrative approach, the water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus, has been proposed to facilitate SDGs planning and implementation by incorporating synergies, co-benefits, and trade-offs. In this dissertation, I conduct three interrelated WEF nexus studies using a sustainability lens to develop new approaches and identify actionable measures to support the SDGs. The first paper is a systematic literature review (2015 – 2022) to investigate the extent to which WEF nexus research has generated actionable knowledge to achieve the SDGs. The findings show that the WEF nexus literature explicitly considering the SDGs mainly focuses on governance and environmental protection, with fewer studies focusing on target populations and affordability. In the second paper, I reframed the water quality concerns using a nexus and systems thinking approach in a FEW nexus hotspot, the Rio Negro Basin (RNB) in Uruguay. While Uruguay is committed to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, sustainability challenges endure in managing synergies and trade-offs, resulting in strategy setbacks for the sustainable development of food, land, water, and oceans. Reframing the water quality problem facilitated the identification of potential alternative intervention points to support local problem-solving capacity. In the third paper, I conducted semi-structured interviews and examined the meeting transcripts of the RNB Commission to understand local perspectives about how the activities and initiatives taking place in the basin enhance or diminish the overall sustainability. Sustainability criteria for river basin planning and management were operationalized through qualitative appraisal questions. The case of the RNB illustrates the challenges of coordinating the national development agenda to local livelihood. This dissertation advances the WEF nexus and sustainability science literature by shedding light on the implications of the research trend to support the SDGs, as well as reframing and appraising a persistent water quality problem to support sustainable development.
ContributorsOjeda Matos, Glorynel (Author) / White, Dave D (Thesis advisor) / Brundiers, Katja (Committee member) / Garcia, Margaret (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
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Description
Nature-based recreation is a popular way for people to interact with the environment that also confers numerous economic and health benefits. It is important that the social-ecological systems (SES) that host nature-based recreation be managed effectively, both to preserve the benefits of this important human-environment interaction, and to avoid the

Nature-based recreation is a popular way for people to interact with the environment that also confers numerous economic and health benefits. It is important that the social-ecological systems (SES) that host nature-based recreation be managed effectively, both to preserve the benefits of this important human-environment interaction, and to avoid the potential negative outcomes of recreational commons. The SES that host nature-based recreation are characterized by complex and dynamic feedbacks that complicate their management. Managing these systems is made more complex by the suite of external, multi-scalar, and anthropogenic forces (e.g., climate change, trans-boundary pollution) that plague them with increasing frequency. This dissertation investigates the importance of accounting for this full range of system feedbacks when managing for nature-based recreation. I begin with a broad discussion of the types of dilemmas faced by managers of nature-based recreation. I create a systems-thinking typology of management dilemmas that apply across different recreation modes and system contexts, and which are characterized as feedbacks within the broader recreational system. My findings in this chapter have important implications for understanding and anticipating how different exogenous and endogenous shocks (including management interventions, themselves) may work through or change the processes in SES that host nature-based recreation. In the following two chapters, I narrow my focus to examine case studies of specific dilemma archetypes and proposed management interventions. First, I perform an ex ante analysis of a prospective policy response to a regulatory spiral of excess recreational fishing effort and abridged fishing seasons in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. I estimate behavioral models of fishers’ responses to a prospective incentive-based intervention, and find evidence that such a policy could improve multiple fishery outcomes. Second, I perform an ex post program evaluation of an invasive species bounty program. My results suggest that the program underperformed because it failed to overcome countervailing incentives. Together, my case study analyses reveal the value of modeling for designing policy for these complex SES and show the importance of accounting for the full set of system feedbacks (including the incentives that drive recreator behaviors and the impacts of those behaviors) when managing nature-based recreation.
ContributorsJungers, Brenna (Author) / Abbott, Joshua K (Thesis advisor) / Leonard, Bryan (Committee member) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Bair, Lucas S (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
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In many social-ecological systems, shared resources play a critical role in supporting the livelihoods of rural populations. Physical infrastructure enables resource access and reduces the variability of resource supply. In order for the infrastructure to remain functional, institutions must incentivize individuals to engage in provision and maintenance. The objective

In many social-ecological systems, shared resources play a critical role in supporting the livelihoods of rural populations. Physical infrastructure enables resource access and reduces the variability of resource supply. In order for the infrastructure to remain functional, institutions must incentivize individuals to engage in provision and maintenance. The objective of my dissertation is to understand key formal and informal institutions that affect provision of shared infrastructure and the policy tools that may improve infrastructure provision. I examine these questions in the context of irrigation systems in India because infrastructure maintenance is a persistent challenge and system function is critical for global food production.

My first study investigates how the presence of private infrastructure, such as groundwater pumps, affects the provision of shared infrastructure, such as shared tanks or surface reservoirs. I examine whether formal institutions, such as water pricing instruments, may prevent under-provision of the shared tanks. My findings suggest that in the absence of rules that coordinate tank maintenance, the presence of private pumps will have a detrimental effect on system productivity and equality. On the other hand, the combination of a fixed groundwater fee and a location-based maintenance fee for tank users can improve system productivity and equality.

The second study examines the effect of power asymmetries between farmers, caused by informal institutions such as caste, on the persistence of political institutions that govern infrastructure provision. I examined the effect of policy tools, such as non-farm wage employment and informational interventions, on the persistence of two types of political institutions: self-governed and nested. Results suggest that critical regime shifts in political institutions can be generated by either intervening in formal institutions, such as non-farm wage employment, or informal institutions, such as knowledge transmission or learning mechanisms.

The third study investigates how bureaucratic and political corruption affect public good provision. I examine how institutional and environmental factors affect the likelihood of corruption and infrastructure provision. I demonstrate that cracking down on corruption is only beneficial when infrastructure provision is poor. I also show that bureaucratic wages play an important role in curbing extralegal transactions and improving infrastructure provision.
ContributorsVallury, Sechindra (Author) / Abbott, Joshua K (Thesis advisor) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Leonard, Bryan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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My research is motivated by a rule of thumb that no matter how well a system is designed, some actors fail to fulfill the behavior which is needed to sustain the system. Examples of misbehavior are shirking, rule infraction, and free riding. With a focus on social-ecological systems, this thesis

My research is motivated by a rule of thumb that no matter how well a system is designed, some actors fail to fulfill the behavior which is needed to sustain the system. Examples of misbehavior are shirking, rule infraction, and free riding. With a focus on social-ecological systems, this thesis explored the effectiveness of social feedback mechanisms driven by the two available individual options: the exit option is defined as any response to escape from an objectionable state of affairs; and the voice option as any attempt to stay put and improve the state. Using a stylized dynamic model, the first study investigates how the coexistence of participatory and groundwater market institutions affects government-managed irrigation systems. My findings suggest that patterns of bureaucratic reactions to exit (using private tubewells) and voice (putting pressure on irrigation bureaus) are critical to shaping system dynamics. I also found that the silence option – neither exit nor voice – can impede a further improvement in public infrastructure, but in some cases, can improve public infrastructure dramatically. Using a qualitative comparative analysis of 30 self-governing fishing groups in South Korea, the second study examines how resource mobility, group size, and Ostrom’s Design Principles for rule enforcement can co-determine the effectiveness of the voice option in self-controlling rule infractions. Results suggest that the informal mechanism for conflict resolution is a necessary condition for successful self-governance of local fisheries and that even if rules for monitoring and graduated sanctions are not in use, groups can be successful when they harvest only stationary resources. Using an agent-based model of public good provision, the third study explores under what socioeconomic conditions the exit option – neither producing nor consuming collective benefits – can work effectively to enhance levels of cooperation. The model results suggest that the exit option contributes to the spread of cooperators in mid- and large-size groups at the moderate level of exit payoff, given that group interaction occurs to increase the number of cooperators.
ContributorsShin, Hoon Cheol (Author) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Abbott, Joshua K (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus A (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
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The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus refers to the interactions, trade-offs, and relationships between the three resources and their related governance sectors. Given the significant interdependencies, decisions made in one sector can affect the other two; thus, integrated governance can reduce unintended consequences and lead towards increased resource security and sustainability. Despite

The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus refers to the interactions, trade-offs, and relationships between the three resources and their related governance sectors. Given the significant interdependencies, decisions made in one sector can affect the other two; thus, integrated governance can reduce unintended consequences and lead towards increased resource security and sustainability. Despite the known benefits, many governance decisions continue to be made in “silos,” where stakeholders do not coordinate across sectoral boundaries. Scholars have begun to identify barriers to the implementation of integrated FEW nexus governance, yet there is still minimal understanding of the reasons why these barriers exist and no theoretical framework for evaluating or assessing FEW nexus governance. Integrating the theory of collaborative governance with the concept of the FEW nexus provides an opportunity to better understand the barriers to and structures of FEW nexus governance and to propose solutions for increased collaborative FEW nexus governance in practice. To investigate this governance system, I examined the collaborative governance of the FEW nexus in the context of extreme urban water challenges in two urban case cities: Phoenix, Arizona, USA and Cape Town, South Africa. First, I performed a media analysis of the 2018 Cape Town water crisis to understand the impact of the water crisis on the FEW nexus resource system and the collaborative governance employed to respond to that crisis. Second, I conducted a systematic case study of FEW nexus governance in Phoenix, Arizona to understand barriers to collaborative governance implementation in the system and to identify opportunities to overcome these barriers. Finally, I presented a framework of indicators to assess the collaborative governance of the local FEW nexus. This dissertation will advance the sustainability literature by moving the concept of FEW nexus governance from theory and conceptualization towards operationalization and measurement.
ContributorsJones, Jaime Leah (Author) / White, Dave D (Thesis advisor) / Melnick, Rob (Committee member) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
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Globally, rivers are being heavily dammed and over-utilized to the point where water shortages are starting to occur. This problem is magnified in arid and semi-arid regions where climate change, growing populations, intensive agriculture and urbanization have created tremendous pressures on existing river systems. Regulatory incentives have been enacted in

Globally, rivers are being heavily dammed and over-utilized to the point where water shortages are starting to occur. This problem is magnified in arid and semi-arid regions where climate change, growing populations, intensive agriculture and urbanization have created tremendous pressures on existing river systems. Regulatory incentives have been enacted in recent decades that have spurred river restoration programs in the United States. But what kind of governance does river restoration require that is different from allocative institutional set-ups? Are these recovery programs succeeding in restoring ecological health and resilience of the rivers? Do the programs contribute to social-ecological resilience of the river systems more broadly? This study aims to tackle these key questions for two Colorado River sub-basin recovery programs (one in the Upper Basin and one in the Lower Basin) through utilization of different frameworks and methodologies for each. Organizational resilience to institutional and biophysical disturbances varies, with the Upper Basin program being more resilient than the Lower Basin program. Ecological resilience as measured by beta diversity (for the Upper Basin) was a factor of the level of hydrological and technological interventions rather than an occurrence of the natural flow regime. This points to the fact that in a highly-dampened and managed system like the Colorado River, the dampened flow regime alone is not a significant factor in maintaining community diversity and ecological health. A broad-scale social-ecological analysis supports the finding that the natural feedback between social and ecological elements is broken and recovery efforts are more an attempt at resuscitating the river system to maintain a semblance of historic levels of fish populations and aquatic processes. Adaptive management pathways for the future need to address and build pathways to transformability into recovery planning to achieve resilience for the river system.
ContributorsSrinivasan, Jaishri (Author) / Schoon, Michael L (Thesis advisor) / Sabo, John L (Thesis advisor) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus A (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021