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- All Subjects: Asset Allocation
- Creators: Yan, Hong
Description投资实践中，股债等大类资产配置问题是实务从业者面临的核心问题之一。中国的宏观政策决策缺乏良好运作的预期引导机制，宏观政策往往并不能被市场在博弈中充分预期。从历史实践看，中国经济的宏观周期与政策的逆周期调节经常出现错位，政策滞后与超调现象经常出现。从股票市场的过往历程来看，在2007年之前，中国股市走势与宏观经济波动的关联度不大，那时市场规模还不大，并且市场交易以散户投资者为主，驱动股市涨跌的核心因素是投资者的博弈情绪。而在2007年的一轮牛市之后，中国股市中机构投资者的资金规模逐步扩大，总市值也达到80多万亿元，基本面研究的重要性凸显。然而，以公募基金经理为代表的实践者在相对业绩比较基准的业绩考核体系下，更加关注自下而上的个股选择，相对忽视自上而下的宏观及配置研究。此外，长期以来，股票基金经理与债券基金经理的投资方法体系与关注点不一样。相比之下，海外投资机构在20多年以前已经建立起非常成熟的资产配置体系，而国内这方面的研究与实践在近几年才刚起步。 本文通过胜率与赔率的视角，实证研究发现。在可投资股票指数层面，单独的估值与成长信号的平均表现相对于沪深300指数或者中证500指数并不占有明显优势，因此，策略配置的构建需要进行信号遴选与组合。此外，研究还表明，成长因子相对于估值因子在A股指数层面的表现更占优。权益资产指数层面对因子信号的有效性进行分析。研究发现，宏观因子结合估值因子的权益资产配置体系相对于传统的基于资产的配置体系效果更好，前者构建的投资策略可以跑赢中证500指数与沪深300指数，是指数层面实现收益增强的潜在手段，其收益增益主要来源于宏观因子对大类资产相对关系的预测正确率的明显提升。另一方面，估值因子在截面上的因子溢价性价比较高，通过指数产品之间的动态配置转换可以实现部分增强效果。
ContributorsMei, Dongya (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Harold (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
With the ongoing development of China's financial market, the investment choices for investors are gradually enriched. Exploring asset allocation for different economic cycle stages can help investors achieve higher returns from the economic cycle rotation, and at the same time, effectively diversify the investment risks and improve the stability of investment returns. In this paper, we systematically sort out a series of studies on asset allocation and economic cycle theory, and build an economic cycle rotation investment strategy applicable to China's economic environment and changes in China's capital market.Based on China's macroeconomic data and investment asset classes, this paper optimizes the division of economic cycle stages, integrates the economic cycle rotation strategy and risk parity strategy, and incorporates liquidity elements to construct an asset allocation strategy. Specific findings are as follows: (1) this paper uses the "slope" and "threshold" of the year-on-year change of industrial value added to divide the economic output stage, which overcomes the drawbacks of relying on economic cycle indicators that cause frequent changes in cycle stages; (2) the investment strategy developed in the paper is able to obtain considerable investment returns, reduces investment risks, and achieves retracement control.
ii
The findings of this paper enrich and expand the research on economic cycle theory and asset allocation theory to a certain extent, and also provide some inspiration for the practice of asset allocation.
ContributorsZhao, Guomin (Author) / Huang, Xiao-Chuan (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Liang, Bin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023