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Description
Many longitudinal studies, especially in clinical trials, suffer from missing data issues. Most estimation procedures assume that the missing values are ignorable or missing at random (MAR). However, this assumption leads to unrealistic simplification and is implausible for many cases. For example, an investigator is examining the effect of treatment on depression. Subjects are scheduled with doctors on a regular basis and asked questions about recent emotional situations. Patients who are experiencing severe depression are more likely to miss an appointment and leave the data missing for that particular visit. Data that are not missing at random may produce bias in results if the missing mechanism is not taken into account. In other words, the missing mechanism is related to the unobserved responses. Data are said to be non-ignorable missing if the probabilities of missingness depend on quantities that might not be included in the model. Classical pattern-mixture models for non-ignorable missing values are widely used for longitudinal data analysis because they do not require explicit specification of the missing mechanism, with the data stratified according to a variety of missing patterns and a model specified for each stratum. However, this usually results in under-identifiability, because of the need to estimate many stratum-specific parameters even though the eventual interest is usually on the marginal parameters. Pattern mixture models have the drawback that a large sample is usually required. In this thesis, two studies are presented. The first study is motivated by an open problem from pattern mixture models. Simulation studies from this part show that information in the missing data indicators can be well summarized by a simple continuous latent structure, indicating that a large number of missing data patterns may be accounted by a simple latent factor. Simulation findings that are obtained in the first study lead to a novel model, a continuous latent factor model (CLFM). The second study develops CLFM which is utilized for modeling the joint distribution of missing values and longitudinal outcomes. The proposed CLFM model is feasible even for small sample size applications. The detailed estimation theory, including estimating techniques from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives is presented. Model performance and evaluation are studied through designed simulations and three applications. Simulation and application settings change from correctly-specified missing data mechanism to mis-specified mechanism and include different sample sizes from longitudinal studies. Among three applications, an AIDS study includes non-ignorable missing values; the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test data have no indication on missing data mechanism and it will be applied to a sensitivity analysis; the Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers with Developmental Speech and Language Impairment study, however, has full complete data and will be used to conduct a robust analysis. The CLFM model is shown to provide more precise estimators, specifically on intercept and slope related parameters, compared with Roy's latent class model and the classic linear mixed model. This advantage will be more obvious when a small sample size is the case, where Roy's model experiences challenges on estimation convergence. The proposed CLFM model is also robust when missing data are ignorable as demonstrated through a study on Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers.
ContributorsZhang, Jun (Author) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Barber, Jarrett (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / St Louis, Robert D. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
It is common in the analysis of data to provide a goodness-of-fit test to assess the performance of a model. In the analysis of contingency tables, goodness-of-fit statistics are frequently employed when modeling social science, educational or psychological data where the interest is often directed at investigating the association among multi-categorical variables. Pearson's chi-squared statistic is well-known in goodness-of-fit testing, but it is sometimes considered to produce an omnibus test as it gives little guidance to the source of poor fit once the null hypothesis is rejected. However, its components can provide powerful directional tests. In this dissertation, orthogonal components are used to develop goodness-of-fit tests for models fit to the counts obtained from the cross-classification of multi-category dependent variables. Ordinal categories are assumed. Orthogonal components defined on marginals are obtained when analyzing multi-dimensional contingency tables through the use of the QR decomposition. A subset of these orthogonal components can be used to construct limited-information tests that allow one to identify the source of lack-of-fit and provide an increase in power compared to Pearson's test. These tests can address the adverse effects presented when data are sparse. The tests rely on the set of first- and second-order marginals jointly, the set of second-order marginals only, and the random forest method, a popular algorithm for modeling large complex data sets. The performance of these tests is compared to the likelihood ratio test as well as to tests based on orthogonal polynomial components. The derived goodness-of-fit tests are evaluated with studies for detecting two- and three-way associations that are not accounted for by a categorical variable factor model with a single latent variable. In addition the tests are used to investigate the case when the model misspecification involves parameter constraints for large and sparse contingency tables. The methodology proposed here is applied to data from the 38th round of the State Survey conducted by the Institute for Public Policy and Michigan State University Social Research (2005) . The results illustrate the use of the proposed techniques in the context of a sparse data set.
ContributorsMilovanovic, Jelena (Author) / Young, Dennis (Thesis advisor) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Eubank, Randall (Committee member) / Yang, Yan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Designing a hazard intelligence platform enables public agencies to organize diversity and manage complexity in collaborative partnerships. To maintain the integrity of the platform while preserving the prosocial ethos, understanding the dynamics of “non-regulatory supplements” to central governance is crucial. In conceptualization, social responsiveness is shaped by communicative actions, in which coordination is attained through negotiated agreements by way of the evaluation of validity claims. The dynamic processes involve information processing and knowledge sharing. The access and the use of collaborative intelligence can be examined by notions of traceability and intelligence cohort. Empirical evidence indicates that social traceability is statistical significant and positively associated with the improvement of collaborative performance. Moreover, social traceability positively contributes to the efficacy of technical traceability, but not vice versa. Furthermore, technical traceability significantly contributes to both moderate and high performance improvement; while social traceability is only significant for moderate performance improvement. Therefore, the social effect is limited and contingent. The results further suggest strategic considerations. Social significance: social traceability is the fundamental consideration to high cohort performance. Cocktail therapy: high cohort performance involves an integrative strategy with high social traceability and high technical traceability. Servant leadership: public agencies should exercise limited authority and perform a supporting role in the provision of appropriate technical traceability, while actively promoting social traceability in the system.
ContributorsWang, Chao-shih (Author) / Van Fleet, David (Thesis advisor) / Grebitus, Carola (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Shultz, Clifford (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The Pearson and likelihood ratio statistics are well-known in goodness-of-fit testing and are commonly used for models applied to multinomial count data. When data are from a table formed by the cross-classification of a large number of variables, these goodness-of-fit statistics may have lower power and inaccurate Type I error rate due to sparseness. Pearson's statistic can be decomposed into orthogonal components associated with the marginal distributions of observed variables, and an omnibus fit statistic can be obtained as a sum of these components. When the statistic is a sum of components for lower-order marginals, it has good performance for Type I error rate and statistical power even when applied to a sparse table. In this dissertation, goodness-of-fit statistics using orthogonal components based on second- third- and fourth-order marginals were examined. If lack-of-fit is present in higher-order marginals, then a test that incorporates the higher-order marginals may have a higher power than a test that incorporates only first- and/or second-order marginals. To this end, two new statistics based on the orthogonal components of Pearson's chi-square that incorporate third- and fourth-order marginals were developed, and the Type I error, empirical power, and asymptotic power under different sparseness conditions were investigated. Individual orthogonal components as test statistics to identify lack-of-fit were also studied. The performance of individual orthogonal components to other popular lack-of-fit statistics were also compared. When the number of manifest variables becomes larger than 20, most of the statistics based on marginal distributions have limitations in terms of computer resources and CPU time. Under this problem, when the number manifest variables is larger than or equal to 20, the performance of a bootstrap based method to obtain p-values for Pearson-Fisher statistic, fit to confirmatory dichotomous variable factor analysis model, and the performance of Tollenaar and Mooijaart (2003) statistic were investigated.
ContributorsDassanayake, Mudiyanselage Maduranga Kasun (Author) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / St. Louis, Robert (Committee member) / Kamarianakis, Ioannis (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is one of the Big Four Sporting Leagues of US Professional Sports. In recent years, the NBA has enjoyed milestone seasons in both attendance and television ratings, resulting in steady increases to both, over the previous decade. (Morgan, 2017) This surge can be attributed in part to the integration of "cultural recognition" initiatives and the overall message of inclusivity on the part of NBA franchises, with their respective promotions and advertisements such as television, social media, radio, etc. Heritage Nights, such as "Noche Latina," among other variants in the NBA, typically feature culturally influenced changes to team logos, giveaways, and other consumer offerings. In markets where Hispanics make up a significant percentage of the fan-base, such as Phoenix, NBA franchises such as the Phoenix Suns must ascertain the financial or perceptual impacts, associated with risks of stereotyping, offending or otherwise unintentionally alienating different categories of fans. To this end, data was collected from the local NBA franchises' fanbase, specifically Phoenix Suns season-ticket holders, and was statistically checked for significant relationships between both categories of fans and several different variables. This analysis found that only $192K in revenue is being missed through the investment of Heritage Nights, and that fan perceptions of stereotypical or offensive giveaways and practices have no significant effect on game or event attendance, despite the stereotypes toward giveaways and practices still being present. Implications of this study provide possible next steps for the Suns and continue to widen the scope of demographical sports marketing both in professional basketball and beyond.
ContributorsGibbens, Patrick Alexander (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / School of Music (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
ASU's international student population has been growing exponentially in the last few years. Specifically, the fastest growing group has been international students from China. However, many of these students are arriving with inaccurate expectations of life at an American university. Furthermore, prospective students in China that have a desire to attend school in the U.S. are struggling to find a university that is affordable and respected. There is a huge opportunity for ASU to reach this market of students and increase their enrollment of international Chinese students. Our project aimed to create advertisements of ASU that target international Chinese students and their parents. The purpose of our project is to provide inspiration that ASU can utilize to create a professional marketing campaign to target this population of potential students.
ContributorsKagiyama, Kristen (Co-author) / Le, Alethea (Co-author) / Chien, Hsui Fen (Thesis director) / Chau, Angie (Committee member) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Over the course of six months, we have worked in partnership with Arizona State University and a leading producer of semiconductor chips in the United States market (referred to as the "Company"), lending our skills in finance, statistics, model building, and external insight. We attempt to design models that help predict how much time it takes to implement a cost-saving project. These projects had previously been considered only on the merit of cost savings, but with an added dimension of time, we hope to forecast time according to a number of variables. With such a forecast, we can then apply it to an expense project prioritization model which relates time and cost savings together, compares many different projects simultaneously, and returns a series of present value calculations over different ranges of time. The goal is twofold: assist with an accurate prediction of a project's time to implementation, and provide a basis to compare different projects based on their present values, ultimately helping to reduce the Company's manufacturing costs and improve gross margins. We believe this approach, and the research found toward this goal, is most valuable for the Company. Two coaches from the Company have provided assistance and clarified our questions when necessary throughout our research. In this paper, we begin by defining the problem, setting an objective, and establishing a checklist to monitor our progress. Next, our attention shifts to the data: making observations, trimming the dataset, framing and scoping the variables to be used for the analysis portion of the paper. Before creating a hypothesis, we perform a preliminary statistical analysis of certain individual variables to enrich our variable selection process. After the hypothesis, we run multiple linear regressions with project duration as the dependent variable. After regression analysis and a test for robustness, we shift our focus to an intuitive model based on rules of thumb. We relate these models to an expense project prioritization tool developed using Microsoft Excel software. Our deliverables to the Company come in the form of (1) a rules of thumb intuitive model and (2) an expense project prioritization tool.
ContributorsAl-Assi, Hashim (Co-author) / Chiang, Robert (Co-author) / Liu, Andrew (Co-author) / Ludwick, David (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The goal of this project is to gain market research insight into the handcrafted goods industry and apply this knowledge towards a business plan for a small crafts business: Creations by Songbird. We accomplish this goal by conducting primary and secondary research on the crafts selling industry to see who the target customer is and what their habits are. First, we conduct a literature review looking into the background of some known crafts sales platforms. We discover several consistent trends in product differentiation, retail price calculation, and search engine optimization that we will apply to our business plan. Next, we conduct primary market research in the form of observations, customer and business owner interviews, and surveys. We learn that Instagram is a widely used marketing tool and that Etsy and crafts shows are popular sales channels. Using the results of our research we conclude that the our target customers are women ages 18-24 and 50-59 who attend crafts shows several times per year and occasionally browse Etsy. Many of these women enjoy objects that are vintage style and on average they spend less than $50 per item. Applying the industry and market knowledge gleaned from our research we create a business plan that outlines a price/cost breakdown, marketing plan, and sales plan for Creations by Songbird. We plan to utilize Instagram as our main marketing tool and will sell records via crafts shows and Etsy. Based on our estimates, we conclude that Creations by Songbird will be a profitable business.
ContributorsWood, Sara (Co-author) / Ehmann, Victoria (Co-author) / Gray, Nancy (Thesis director) / Trujillo, Rhett (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The following thesis analyzed the non-profit organization, Welcome to America Project (WTAP) to understand and identify effective marketing techniques for non-profits. The primary focus of the WTAP, a non-profit organization helping newly arrived refugees in Arizona is to provide them with basic necessities by collecting monetary and in-kind donations from volunteers. WTAP's limited resources require the organization to use creative marketing techniques to solicit donations effectively and efficiently. Through an analysis of WTAP's current marketing techniques and the marketing methods of three benchmark organizations, Project C.U.R.E., Feed My Starving Children, and Maggie's Place, we have identified several opportunities for WTAP to consider.
ContributorsVasoya, Charmi (Co-author) / Chan, Dona (Co-author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / O'Connor, Megan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
A fun, interactive, and practical motivational speaking package designed to inspire and encourage high school and college students, as well as young adults, to achieve success and discover their leadership potential. Using secrets learned from starting my own business, Board Blazers LED Underglow Skateboard Lighting, and performing as Drum Major of the 400+ member ASU Sun Devil Marching Band, I share tips and tricks that can be applied in everyday life. Topics include surviving in difficult leadership situations unique to young leaders, celebrity confidence secrets, and creating infectious enthusiasm while working on a team.
ContributorsRudolph, Gregory James (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Desch, Timothy (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2014-05