Matching Items (5)
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- All Subjects: Climatic changes
- All Subjects: Electric utilities--Arizona--Mesa.
- Creators: Anderson, James
- Creators: Trimble, Steve
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The numerical climate models have provided scientists, policy makers and the general public, crucial information for climate projections since mid-20th century. An international effort to compare and validate the simulations of all major climate models is organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which has gone through several phases since 1995 with CMIP5 being the state of the art. In parallel, an organized effort to consolidate all observational data in the past century culminates in the creation of several "reanalysis" datasets that are considered the closest representation of the true observation. This study compared the climate variability and trend in the climate model simulations and observations on the timescales ranging from interannual to centennial. The analysis focused on the dynamic climate quantity of zonal-mean zonal wind and global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), and incorporated multiple datasets from reanalysis and the most recent CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. For the observation, the validation of AAM by the length-of-day (LOD) and the intercomparison of AAM revealed a good agreement among reanalyses on the interannual and the decadal-to-interdecadal timescales, respectively. But the most significant discrepancies among them are in the long-term mean and long-term trend. For the simulations, the CMIP5 models produced a significantly smaller bias and a narrower ensemble spread of the climatology and trend in the 20th century for AAM compared to CMIP3, while CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations consistently produced a positive trend for the 20th and 21st century. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models produced a wide range of the magnitudes of decadal and interdecadal variability of wind component of AAM (MR) compared to observation. The ensemble means of CMIP3 and CMIP5 are not statistically distinguishable for either the 20th- or 21st-century runs. The in-house atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by the sea surface temperature (SST) taken from the CMIP5 simulations as lower boundary conditions were carried out. The zonal wind and MR in the CMIP5 simulations are well simulated in the AGCM simulations. This confirmed SST as an important mediator in regulating the global atmospheric changes due to GHG effect.
ContributorsPaek, Houk (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Adrian, Ronald (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Optimization of the implementation of renewable resources in a municipal electric utility in Arizona
Description
A municipal electric utility in Mesa, Arizona with a peak load of approximately 85 megawatts (MW) was analyzed to determine how the implementation of renewable resources (both wind and solar) would affect the overall cost of energy purchased by the utility. The utility currently purchases all of its energy through long term energy supply contracts and does not own any generation assets and so optimization was achieved by minimizing the overall cost of energy while adhering to specific constraints on how much energy the utility could purchase from the short term energy market. Scenarios were analyzed for a five percent and a ten percent penetration of renewable energy in the years 2015 and 2025. Demand Side Management measures (through thermal storage in the City's district cooling system, electric vehicles, and customers' air conditioning improvements) were evaluated to determine if they would mitigate some of the cost increases that resulted from the addition of renewable resources.
In the 2015 simulation, wind energy was less expensive than solar to integrate to the supply mix. When five percent of the utility's energy requirements in 2015 are met by wind, this caused a 3.59% increase in the overall cost of energy. When that five percent is met by solar in 2015, it is estimated to cause a 3.62% increase in the overall cost of energy. A mix of wind and solar in 2015 caused a lower increase in the overall cost of energy of 3.57%. At the ten percent implementation level in 2015, solar, wind, and a mix of solar and wind caused increases of 7.28%, 7.51% and 7.27% respectively in the overall cost of energy.
In 2025, at the five percent implementation level, wind and solar caused increases in the overall cost of energy of 3.07% and 2.22% respectively. In 2025, at the ten percent implementation level, wind and solar caused increases in the overall cost of energy of 6.23% and 4.67% respectively.
Demand Side Management reduced the overall cost of energy by approximately 0.6%, mitigating some of the cost increase from adding renewable resources.
In the 2015 simulation, wind energy was less expensive than solar to integrate to the supply mix. When five percent of the utility's energy requirements in 2015 are met by wind, this caused a 3.59% increase in the overall cost of energy. When that five percent is met by solar in 2015, it is estimated to cause a 3.62% increase in the overall cost of energy. A mix of wind and solar in 2015 caused a lower increase in the overall cost of energy of 3.57%. At the ten percent implementation level in 2015, solar, wind, and a mix of solar and wind caused increases of 7.28%, 7.51% and 7.27% respectively in the overall cost of energy.
In 2025, at the five percent implementation level, wind and solar caused increases in the overall cost of energy of 3.07% and 2.22% respectively. In 2025, at the ten percent implementation level, wind and solar caused increases in the overall cost of energy of 6.23% and 4.67% respectively.
Demand Side Management reduced the overall cost of energy by approximately 0.6%, mitigating some of the cost increase from adding renewable resources.
ContributorsCadorin, Anthony (Author) / Phelan, Patrick (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Recent literature indicates potential benefits in microchannel cooling if an inlet orifice is used to suppress pressure oscillations that develop under two-phase conditions. This study investigates the costs and benefits of using an adjustable microchannel inlet orifice. The focus is on orifice effect during steady-state boiling and critical heat flux (CHF) in the channels using R134a in a pumped refrigerant loop (PRL). To change orifice size, a dam controlled with a micrometer was placed in front of 31 parallel microchannels. Each channel had a hydraulic diameter of 0.235 mm and a length of 1.33 cm. For steady state two-phase conditions, mass fluxes of 300 kg m-2 s-1 and 600 kg m-2 s-1were investigated. For orifice sizes with a hydraulic diameter to unrestricted hydraulic diameter (Dh:Dh,ur) ratio less than 35 percent, oscillations were reduced and wall temperatures fell up to 1.5 °C. Critical heat flux data were obtained for 7 orifice sizes with mass fluxes from 186 kg m-2 s-1 to 847 kg m-2 s-1. For all mass fluxes and inlet conditions tested, CHF values for a Dh:Dh,ur ratio of 1.8 percent became increasingly lower (up to 37 W cm-2 less) than those obtained with larger orifices. An optimum orifice size with Dh:Dh,ur of 35 percent emerged, offering up to 5 W cm-2 increase in CHF over unrestricted conditions at the highest mass flux tested, 847 kg m-2 s-1. These improvements in cooling ability with inlet orifices in place under both steady-state and impending CHF conditions are modest, leading to the conclusion that inlet orifices are only mildly effective at improving heat transfer coefficients. Stability of the PRL used for experimentation was also studied and improved. A vapor compression cycle's (VCC) proportional, integral, and derivative controller was found to adversely affect stability within the PRL and cause premature CHF. Replacing the VCC with an ice water heat sink maintained steady pumped loop system pressures and mass flow rates. The ice water heat sink was shown to have energy cost savings over the use of a directly coupled VCC for removing heat from the PRL.
ContributorsOdom, Brent A (Author) / Phelan, Patrick E (Thesis advisor) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Tasooji, Amaneh (Committee member) / Holcomb, Don (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate and predict the changes in local climate attributed to the urbanization for five desert cities. The simulations are performed in the fashion of climate downscaling, constrained by the surface boundary conditions generated from high resolution land-use maps. For each city, the land-use maps of 1985 and 2010 from Landsat satellite observation, and a projected land-use map for 2030, are used to represent the past, present, and future. An additional set of simulations for Las Vegas, the largest of the five cities, uses the NLCD 1992 and 2006 land-use maps and an idealized historical land-use map with no urban coverage for 1900.
The study finds that urbanization in Las Vegas produces a classic urban heat island (UHI) at night but a minor cooling during the day. A further analysis of the surface energy balance shows that the decrease in surface Albedo and increase effective emissivity play an important role in shaping the local climate change over urban areas. The emerging urban structures slow down the diurnal wind circulation over the city due to an increased effective surface roughness. This leads to a secondary modification of temperature due to the interaction between the mechanical and thermodynamic effects of urbanization.
The simulations for the five desert cities for 1985 and 2010 further confirm a common pattern of the climatic effect of urbanization with significant nighttime warming and moderate daytime cooling. This effect is confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detail of land cover in the surrounding areas. The pattern of nighttime warming and daytime cooling remains robust in the simulations for the future climate of the five cities using the projected 2030 land-use maps. Inter-city differences among the five urban areas are discussed.
The study finds that urbanization in Las Vegas produces a classic urban heat island (UHI) at night but a minor cooling during the day. A further analysis of the surface energy balance shows that the decrease in surface Albedo and increase effective emissivity play an important role in shaping the local climate change over urban areas. The emerging urban structures slow down the diurnal wind circulation over the city due to an increased effective surface roughness. This leads to a secondary modification of temperature due to the interaction between the mechanical and thermodynamic effects of urbanization.
The simulations for the five desert cities for 1985 and 2010 further confirm a common pattern of the climatic effect of urbanization with significant nighttime warming and moderate daytime cooling. This effect is confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detail of land cover in the surrounding areas. The pattern of nighttime warming and daytime cooling remains robust in the simulations for the future climate of the five cities using the projected 2030 land-use maps. Inter-city differences among the five urban areas are discussed.
ContributorsKamal, Samy (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Anderson, James (Thesis advisor) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015