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- Creators: Huang, Huei-Ping
Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The numerical climate models have provided scientists, policy makers and the general public, crucial information for climate projections since mid-20th century. An international effort to compare and validate the simulations of all major climate models is organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which has gone through several phases since 1995 with CMIP5 being the state of the art. In parallel, an organized effort to consolidate all observational data in the past century culminates in the creation of several "reanalysis" datasets that are considered the closest representation of the true observation. This study compared the climate variability and trend in the climate model simulations and observations on the timescales ranging from interannual to centennial. The analysis focused on the dynamic climate quantity of zonal-mean zonal wind and global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), and incorporated multiple datasets from reanalysis and the most recent CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. For the observation, the validation of AAM by the length-of-day (LOD) and the intercomparison of AAM revealed a good agreement among reanalyses on the interannual and the decadal-to-interdecadal timescales, respectively. But the most significant discrepancies among them are in the long-term mean and long-term trend. For the simulations, the CMIP5 models produced a significantly smaller bias and a narrower ensemble spread of the climatology and trend in the 20th century for AAM compared to CMIP3, while CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations consistently produced a positive trend for the 20th and 21st century. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models produced a wide range of the magnitudes of decadal and interdecadal variability of wind component of AAM (MR) compared to observation. The ensemble means of CMIP3 and CMIP5 are not statistically distinguishable for either the 20th- or 21st-century runs. The in-house atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by the sea surface temperature (SST) taken from the CMIP5 simulations as lower boundary conditions were carried out. The zonal wind and MR in the CMIP5 simulations are well simulated in the AGCM simulations. This confirmed SST as an important mediator in regulating the global atmospheric changes due to GHG effect.
ContributorsPaek, Houk (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Adrian, Ronald (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams.
ContributorsKulkarni, Sujay (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Due to decrease in fossil fuel levels, the world is shifting focus towards renewable sources of energy. With an annual average growth rate of 25%, wind is one of the foremost source of harnessing cleaner energy for production of electricity. Wind turbines have been developed to tap power from wind. As a single wind turbine is insufficient, multiple turbines are installed forming a wind farm. Generally, wind farms can have hundreds to thousands of turbines concentrated in a small region. There have been multiple studies centering the influence of weather on such wind farms, but no substantial research focused on how wind farms effect local climate. Technological advances have allowed development of commercial wind turbines with a power output greater than 7.58 MW. This has led to a reduction in required number of turbines and has optimized land usage. Hence, current research considers higher power density compared to previous works that relied on wind farm density of 2 to 4 W/m 2 . Simulations were performed using Weather Research and Forecasting software provided by NCAR. The region of simulation is Southern Oregon, with domains including both onshore and offshore wind farms. Unlike most previous works, where wind farms were considered to be on a flat ground, effects of topography have also been considered here. Study of seasonal effects over wind farms has provided better insight into changes in local wind direction. Analysis of mean velocity difference across wind farms at a height of 10m and 150m gives an understanding of wind velocity profiles. Results presented in this research tends to contradict earlier belief that velocity reduces throughout the farm. Large scale simulations have shown that sometimes, more than 50% of the farm can have an increased wind velocity of up to 1m/s
at an altitude of 10m.
at an altitude of 10m.
ContributorsKadiyala, Yogesh Rao (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Rajagopalan, Jagannathan (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The role of environmental factors that influence atmospheric propagation of sound originating from freeway noise sources is studied with a combination of field experiments and numerical simulations. Acoustic propagation models are developed and adapted for refractive index depending upon meteorological conditions. A high-resolution multi-nested environmental forecasting model forced by coarse global analysis is applied to predict real meteorological profiles at fine scales. These profiles are then used as input for the acoustic models. Numerical methods for producing higher resolution acoustic refractive index fields are proposed. These include spatial and temporal nested meteorological simulations with vertical grid refinement. It is shown that vertical nesting can improve the prediction of finer structures in near-ground temperature and velocity profiles, such as morning temperature inversions and low level jet-like features. Accurate representation of these features is shown to be important for modeling sound refraction phenomena and for enabling accurate noise assessment. Comparisons are made using the acoustic model for predictions with profiles derived from meteorological simulations and from field experiment observations in Phoenix, Arizona. The challenges faced in simulating accurate meteorological profiles at high resolution for sound propagation applications are highlighted and areas for possible improvement are discussed.
A detailed evaluation of the environmental forecast is conducted by investigating the Surface Energy Balance (SEB) obtained from observations made with an eddy-covariance flux tower compared with SEB from simulations using several physical parameterizations of urban effects and planetary boundary layer schemes. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes are examined in relation to surface layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting parameterizations for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution (to 333 m) is seen to have insignificant ($<1\sigma$) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-minute diurnal mean SEB terms. A new method of representing inhomogeneous urban development density derived from observations of impervious surfaces with sub-grid scale resolution is then proposed for mesoscale applications. This method was implemented and evaluated within the environmental modeling framework. Finally, a new semi-implicit scheme based on Leapfrog and a fourth-order implicit time-filter is developed.
A detailed evaluation of the environmental forecast is conducted by investigating the Surface Energy Balance (SEB) obtained from observations made with an eddy-covariance flux tower compared with SEB from simulations using several physical parameterizations of urban effects and planetary boundary layer schemes. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes are examined in relation to surface layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting parameterizations for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution (to 333 m) is seen to have insignificant ($<1\sigma$) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-minute diurnal mean SEB terms. A new method of representing inhomogeneous urban development density derived from observations of impervious surfaces with sub-grid scale resolution is then proposed for mesoscale applications. This method was implemented and evaluated within the environmental modeling framework. Finally, a new semi-implicit scheme based on Leapfrog and a fourth-order implicit time-filter is developed.
ContributorsShaffer, Stephen R. (Author) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Fernando, Harindra J.S. (Committee member) / Ovenden, Nicholas C. (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
A numerical study of incremental spin-up and spin-up from rest of a thermally- stratified fluid enclosed within a right circular cylinder with rigid bottom and side walls and stress-free upper surface is presented. Thermally stratified spin-up is a typical example of baroclinity, which is initiated by a sudden increase in rotation rate and the tilting of isotherms gives rise to baroclinic source of vorticity. Research by (Smirnov et al. [2010a]) showed the differences in evolution of instabilities when Dirichlet and Neumann thermal boundary conditions were applied at top and bottom walls. Study of parametric variations carried out in this dissertation confirmed the instability patterns observed by them for given aspect ratio and Rossby number values greater than 0.5. Also results reveal that flow maintained axisymmetry and stability for short aspect ratio containers independent of amount of rotational increment imparted. Investigation on vorticity components provides framework for baroclinic vorticity feedback mechanism which plays important role in delayed rise of instabilities when Dirichlet thermal Boundary Conditions are applied.
ContributorsKher, Aditya Deepak (Author) / Chen, Kangping (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
The evolution of single hairpin vortices and multiple interacting hairpin vortices are studied in direct numerical simulations of channel flow at Re-tau=395. The purpose of this study is to observe the effects of increased Reynolds number and varying initial conditions on the growth of hairpins and the conditions under which single hairpins autogenerate hairpin packets. The hairpin vortices are believed to provide a unified picture of wall turbulence and play an important role in the production of Reynolds shear stress which is directly related to turbulent drag. The structures of the initial three-dimensional vortices are extracted from the two-point spatial correlation of the fully turbulent direct numerical simulation of the velocity field by linear stochastic estimation and embedded in a mean flow having the profile of the fully turbulent flow. The Reynolds number of the present simulation is more than twice that of the Re-tau=180 flow from earlier literature and the conditional events used to define the stochastically estimated single vortex initial conditions include a number of new types of events such as quasi-streamwise vorticity and Q4 events. The effects of parameters like strength, asymmetry and position are evaluated and compared with existing results in the literature. This study then attempts to answer questions concerning how vortex mergers produce larger scale structures, a process that may contribute to the growth of length scale with increasing distance from the wall in turbulent wall flows. Multiple vortex interactions are studied in detail.
ContributorsParthasarathy, Praveen Kumar (Author) / Adrian, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
The study of deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) in explosives is of prime importance with regards to insensitive munitions (IM). Critical damage owing to thermal or shock stimuli could translate to significant loss of life and material. The present study models detonation and deflagration of a commonly used granular explosive: cyclotetramethylene-tetranitramine, HMX. A robust literature review is followed by computational modeling of gas gun and DDT tube test data using the Sandia National Lab three-dimensional multi-material Eulerian hydrocode CTH. This dissertation proposes new computational practices and models that aid in predicting shock stimulus IM response. CTH was first used to model experimental data sets of DDT tubes from both Naval Surface Weapons Center and Los Alamos National Laboratory which were initiated by pyrogenic material and a piston, respectively. Analytical verification was performed, where possible, for detonation via empirical based equations at the Chapman Jouguet state with errors below 2.1%, and deflagration via pressure dependent burn rate equations. CTH simulations include inert, history variable reactive burn and Arrhenius models. The results are in excellent agreement with published HMX detonation velocities. Novel additions include accurate simulation of the pyrogenic material BKNO3 and the inclusion of porosity in energetic materials. The treatment of compaction is especially important in modeling precursory hotspots, caused by hydrodynamic collapse of void regions or grain interactions, prior to DDT of granular explosives. The CTH compaction model of HMX was verified within 11% error via a five pronged validation approach using gas gun data and employed use of a newly generated set of P-α parameters for granular HMX in a Mie-Gruneisen Equation of State. Next, the additions of compaction were extended to a volumetric surface burning model of HMX and compare well to a set of empirical burn rates. Lastly, the compendium of detonation and deflagration models was applied to the aforementioned DDT tubes and demonstrate working functionalities of all models, albeit at the expense of significant computational resources. A robust hydrocode methodology is proposed to make use of the deflagration, compaction and detonation models as a means to predict IM response to shock stimulus of granular explosive materials.
ContributorsMahon, Kelly Susan (Author) / Lee, Taewoo (Thesis advisor) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Chen, Kangping (Committee member) / Jiao, Yang (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Energy production is driven by economic needs, which sometimes results in the environment and wildlife being an afterthought. Unfortunately, many animals are killed as a result of flying too close to wind turbines, and the addition of animal deterrent devices are a promising alternative. This thesis seeks to provide a solution as a part of post- construction considerations regarding wildlife and wind turbine interactions through the introduction of a blade mounted ecological device. After testing the hypothesis, the data revealed the device is effective for increasing power output when placed at the root, middle, and tip of the blade. The middle position yielded the lowest increase at all speeds tested. The device was designed and attached to blades along the estimated line of separation. The blades were then mounted on a tower and tested with wind speed as an input and power as an output. The data was analyzed by fixing speed as a parameter and then looking at the distribution of the power output data. A comparison of blades with and without the device demonstrates a potential for increasing power output by 144% when the device is attached at the blade’s root, 7.5% in the middle, and 21% near the tip. The analysis for this study was descoped due to the constraints of the system to be scaled up. As such, this analysis will hold for turbines with a blade length of no more than approximately eight feet. Blades of this type would be used in single building energy grid supplement turbines or turbines in areas with power requirements of equal or less than 1kW per turbine installed. Single building energy grid supplement turbines are most often mounted to the tops of buildings and take advantage of higher speeds of wind at those heights. As the ecological devices are designed to be similar to vortex generators, which have been tested on large blades, their addition to large blades could prove to have a similar effect.
Keywords: Wind turbine ecosystem, post-construction turbine considerations, wildlife deterrents
Keywords: Wind turbine ecosystem, post-construction turbine considerations, wildlife deterrents
ContributorsBooth, Stephanie (Author) / Trimble, Steve (Thesis advisor) / Middleton, James (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018