Matching Items (21)
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- All Subjects: Climate Change
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- All Subjects: Climatic changes
- Creators: Klinsky, Sonja
- Creators: Mays, Larry W.
Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognizes development as a priority for carbon dioxide (CO2) allocation, under its principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". This was codified in the Kyoto Protocol, which exempt developing nations from binding emission reduction targets. Additionally, they could be the recipients of financed sustainable development projects in exchange for emission reduction credits that the developed nations could use to comply with emission targets. Due to ineffective results, post-Kyoto policy discussions indicate a transition towards mitigation commitments from major developed and developing emitters, likely supplemented by market-based mechanisms to reduce mitigation costs. Although the likelihood of achieving substantial emission reductions is increased by the new plan, there is a paucity of consideration to how an ethic of development might be advanced. Therefore, this research empirically investigates the role that CO2 plays in advancing human development (in terms of the Human Development Index or HDI) over the 1990 to 2010 time period. Based on empirical evidence, a theoretical CO2-development framework is established, which provides a basis for designing a novel policy proposal that integrates mitigation efforts with human development objectives. Empirical evidence confirms that CO2 and HDI are highly correlated, but that there are diminishing returns to HDI as per capita CO2 emissions increase. An examination of development pathways reveals that as nations develop, their trajectories generally become less coupled with CO2. Moreover, the developing countries with the greatest gains in HDI are also nations that have, or are in the process of moving toward, outward-oriented trade policies that involve increased domestic capabilities for product manufacture and export. With these findings in mind, future emission targets should reduce current emissions in developed nations and allow room for HDI growth in developing countries as well as in the least developed nations of the world. Emission trading should also be limited to nations with similar HDI levels to protect less-developed nations from unfair competition for capacity building resources. Lastly, developed countries should be incentivized to invest in joint production ventures within the LDCs to build capacity for self-reliant and sustainable development over the long-term.
ContributorsClark, Susan Spierre (Author) / Seager, Thomas P. (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden (Committee member) / Klinsky, Sonja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Woody plant encroachment is a worldwide phenomenon linked to water availability in semiarid systems. Nevertheless, the implications of woody plant encroachment on the hydrologic cycle are poorly understood, especially at the catchment scale. This study takes place in a pair of small semiarid rangeland undergoing the encroachment of Prosopis velutina Woot., or velvet mesquite tree. The similarly-sized basins are in close proximity, leading to equivalent meteorological and soil conditions. One basin was treated for mesquite in 1974, while the other represents the encroachment process. A sensor network was installed to measure ecohydrological states and fluxes, including precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Observations from June 1, 2011 through September 30, 2012 are presented to describe the seasonality and spatial variability of ecohydrological conditions during the North American Monsoon (NAM). Runoff observations are linked to historical changes in runoff production in each watershed. Observations indicate that the mesquite-treated basin generates more runoff pulses and greater runoff volume for small rainfall events, while the mesquite-encroached basin generates more runoff volume for large rainfall events. A distributed hydrologic model is applied to both basins to investigate the runoff threshold processes experienced during the NAM. Vegetation in the two basins is classified into grass, mesquite, or bare soil using high-resolution imagery. Model predictions are used to investigate the vegetation controls on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff generation. The distributed model shows that grass and mesquite sites retain the highest levels of soil moisture. The model also captures the runoff generation differences between the two watersheds that have been observed over the past decade. Generally, grass sites in the mesquite-treated basin have less plant interception and evapotranspiration, leading to higher soil moisture that supports greater runoff for small rainfall events. For large rainfall events, the mesquite-encroached basin produces greater runoff due to its higher fraction of bare soil. The results of this study show that a distributed hydrologic model can be used to explain runoff threshold processes linked to woody plant encroachment at the catchment-scale and provides useful interpretations for rangeland management in semiarid areas.
ContributorsPierini, Nicole A (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Zhi-Hua (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The North American Monsoon (NAM) is characterized by high inter- and intra-seasonal variability, and potential climate change effects have been forecasted to increase this variability. The potential effects of climate change to the hydrology of the southwestern U.S. is of interest as they could have consequences to water resources, floods, and land management. I applied a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, and soils distribution. As such, it can serve to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Model calibration was performed utilizing radar-based NEXRAD data, and comparisons were done to two additional sources of precipitation data: ground-based stations and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and stream discharge. Utilizing the calibrated model, I applied scenarios from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) which was dynamically downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to refine the representation of Arizona's regional climate. Two time periods were examined, a historical 1990-2000 and a future 2031-2040, to evaluate the hydrologic consequence in the form of differences and similarities between the decadal averages for temperature, precipitation, stream discharge and evapotranspiration. Results indicate an increase in mean air temperature over the basin by 1.2 ºC. The average decadal precipitation amounts increased between the two time periods by 2.4 times that of the historical period and had an increase in variability that was 3 times the historical period. For the future period, modeled streamflow discharge in the summer increased by a factor of 3. There was no significant change in the average evapotranspiration (ET). Overall trends of increase precipitation and variability for future climate scenarios have a more significant effect on the hydrologic response than temperature increases in the system during NAM in this study basin. The results from this study suggest that water management in the Beaver Creek will need to adapt to higher summer streamflow amounts.
ContributorsHawkins, Gretchen (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Semken, Steven (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This doctoral thesis investigates the predictability characteristics of floods and flash floods by coupling high resolution precipitation products to a distributed hydrologic model. The research hypotheses are tested at multiple watersheds in the Colorado Front Range (CFR) undergoing warm-season precipitation. Rainfall error structures are expected to propagate into hydrologic simulations with added uncertainties by model parameters and initial conditions. Specifically, the following science questions are addressed: (1) What is the utility of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) for high resolution hydrologic forecasts in mountain watersheds of the CFR?, (2) How does the rainfall-reflectivity relation determine the magnitude of errors when radar observations are used for flood forecasts?, and (3) What are the spatiotemporal limits of flood forecasting in mountain basins when radar nowcasts are used into a distributed hydrological model?. The methodology consists of QPE evaluations at the site (i.e., rain gauge location), basin-average and regional scales, and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) assessment through regional grid-to-grid verification techniques and ensemble basin-averaged time series. The corresponding hydrologic responses that include outlet discharges, distributed runoff maps, and streamflow time series at internal channel locations, are used in light of observed and/or reference data to diagnose the suitability of fusing precipitation forecasts into a distributed model operating at multiple catchments. Results reveal that radar and multisensor QPEs lead to an improved hydrologic performance compared to simulations driven with rain gauge data only. In addition, hydrologic performances attained by satellite products preserve the fundamental properties of basin responses, including a simple scaling relation between the relative spatial variability of runoff and its magnitude. Overall, the spatial variations contained in gridded QPEs add value for warm-season flood forecasting in mountain basins, with sparse data even if those products contain some biases. These results are encouraging and open new avenues for forecasting in regions with limited access and sparse observations. Regional comparisons of different reflectivity -rainfall (Z-R) relations during three summer seasons, illustrated significant rainfall variability across the region. Consistently, hydrologic errors introduced by the distinct Z-R relations, are significant and proportional (in the log-log space) to errors in precipitation estimations and stream flow magnitude. The use of operational Z-R relations without prior calibration may lead to wrong estimation of precipitation, runoff magnitude and increased flood forecasting errors. This suggests that site-specific Z-R relations, prior to forecasting procedures, are desirable in complex terrain regions. Nowcasting experiments show the limits of flood forecasting and its dependence functions of lead time and basin scale. Across the majority of the basins, flood forecasting skill decays with lead time, but the functional relation depends on the interactions between watershed properties and rainfall characteristics. Both precipitation and flood forecasting skills are noticeably reduced for lead times greater than 30 minutes. Scale dependence of hydrologic forecasting errors demonstrates reduced predictability at intermediate-size basins, the typical scale of convective storm systems. Overall, the fusion of high resolution radar nowcasts and the convenient parallel capabilities of the distributed hydrologic model provide an efficient framework for generating accurate real-time flood forecasts suitable for operational environments.
ContributorsMoreno Ramirez, Hernan (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin L. (Committee member) / Gochis, David J. (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The goal of this paper is to serve as a case-study of the youth climate movement at the local level, focusing on how young activists and organizers in Arizona perceive their pathways, motivators, and barriers in the climate movement. In order to answer my research question of ‘What are the different experiences of Arizona youth activists’ involvement in climate action?’, I conducted a case-study of 15 interviews with participants between the ages of 18-25 that varied in racial and gender identity, as well as the duration of their involvement. While this paper does not present a comprehensive view of all experiences of youth climate activists and organizers in Arizona, these interviews highlight the upbringing, background, and the degree of involvement of young climate organizers and activists, ultimately revealing their similar yet unique experiences in the climate movement. Even though further research, discussion, and opportunities are needed to better understand the youth climate movement as well as other emerging social movements, these participants represent the heart of the movement here in Arizona. This case-study sheds light on lived-experiences and urges readers to consider young climate activists and organizers’ varying perspectives on how to support, amplify, and implement their requests for a livable, intersectional, diverse, and inclusive future.
ContributorsNguyen, Minh-Tam (Author) / Fischer, Daniel (Thesis director) / Klinsky, Sonja (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor, Contributor, Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Social Transformation (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
Buried under ice and snow in Greenland, the abandoned Camp Century holds the remnants of a Danish-American Cold War-era operation left to achieve final disposal beneath a tomb of ice. Nearly 50 years later, climate projections hypothesize that snowmelt will exceed snowfall in 2090—releasing the trapped hazardous wastes at Camp Century. This thesis examines the mechanisms through which the international community is able to remediate climate change impacts on Camp Century wastes. The wastes are characterized and examined as either a problem of transboundary pollution, as an issue of military accountability, or as an issue of climate change policy. As revealed, the wastes are unable to be classified as transboundary pollutants. Though classified as a point-source transboundary risk, they are neither a traded or public risk. Furthermore, no international or domestic transboundary pollution agreements incorporate provisions encompassing the specific attributes of Camp Century’s waste. Camp Century is also not an issue of military accountability as U.S. base cleanup laws and environmental regulations do not apply abroad and as the original bilateral agreement governing the site is insufficient in addressing potential ice melt. Finally, as examined through institutions such as the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, Camp Century is, again, unable to be incorporated in current frameworks such as adaptation as adaption efforts are concentrated on developing nations. This thesis reveals the inability of current frameworks, institutions, and agreements to effectively remediate Camp Century wastes which is a case utilized as a microcosm through which to examine international capacity in addressing climate-change induced impacts.
ContributorsKilker, Natalie Angelina (Author) / Klinsky, Sonja (Thesis director) / Bodansky, Daniel (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Despite the urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), there has been a lack of national climate action leadership in the United States. In this vacuum, the need for subnational action, particularly at the local level, has become essential. But cities only have the authority granted them by their state. Thus, many cities thus take climate action consistent, or in-sync, with their state. However, other cities take climate action inconsistent, or out-of-sync, with their state. This study examines this in-sync, out-of-sync phenomenon using a multilevel, multiple case study approach to determine the multilevel dynamics influencing whether a city is taking climate action. The study compares two states at opposite ends of the climate mitigation spectrum—Idaho, a state not taking any mitigation action, and Washington, a state taking aggressive mitigation action—and two cities within each of these states, with one city in-sync and the other out-of-sync with its state on climate action. The results show ideology/political affiliation as the most significant factor influencing state and city climate policy: progressive leaning cities/state are engaging in climate mitigation action; conservative leaning cities/state are not. This result was expected, but the study revealed many nuances that were not. For example, the strength of a city’s ideological leaning can overcome disabling state authority. Ideological leaning impacts whether non-state actors are a driver or barrier to climate action. Policy experimentation is found only in progressive cities. Co-benefits manifest in different ways, depending on ideological leaning and whether a city is in- or out-of-sync. And policy champion influence can be fully realized only with supportive elected leadership.
This study highlights important interplays between drivers and barriers cities face in addressing climate change in a multilevel setting; how those interplays can help or hinder municipal climate action; and strategies cities employ to address challenges they face. The study findings thus contribute to the understanding of why and how cities take climate action, and how barriers to action can be overcome. This understanding is essential for providing a path forward on municipal climate action and accelerating the reduction of municipal GHG emissions.
ContributorsMusgrove, Sheryl Louise (Author) / Klinsky, Sonja (Thesis advisor) / Boone, Christopher (Committee member) / York, Abigail (Committee member) / Bodansky, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
University-level sustainability education in Western academia attempts to focus on eliminating future harm to people and the planet. However, Western academia as an institution upholds systems of oppression and reproduces settler colonialism. This reproduction is antithetical to sustainability goals as it continues patterns of Indigenous erasure and extractive relationships to the Land that perpetuate violence towards people and the planet. Sustainability programs, however, offer several frameworks, including resilience, that facilitate critical interrogations of social-ecological systems. In this thesis, I apply the notion of resilience to the perpetuation of settler colonialism within university-level sustainability education. Specifically, I ask: How is settler colonialism resilient in university-level sustainability education? How are, or could, sustainability programs in Western academic settings address settler colonialism? Through a series of conversational interviews with faculty and leadership from Arizona State University School of Sustainability, I analyzed how university-level sustainability education is both challenging and shaped by settler colonialism. These interviews focused on faculty perspectives on the topic and related issues; the interviews were analyzed using thematic coding in NVivo software. The results of this project highlight that many faculty members are already concerned with and focused on challenging settler colonialism, but that settler colonialism remains resilient in this system due to feedback loops at the personal level and reinforcing mechanisms at the institutional level. This research analyzes these feedback loops and reinforcing mechanisms, among others, and supports the call for anti-colonial and decolonial reconstruction of curriculum, as well as a focus on relationship building, shifting of mindset, and school-wide education on topics of white supremacy, settler colonialism, and systems of oppression in general.
ContributorsBills, Haven (Author) / Klinsky, Sonja (Thesis advisor) / Goebel, Janna (Committee member) / Schoon, Michael (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
In the recent past, Iraq was considered relatively rich considering its water resources compared to its surroundings. Currently, the magnitude of water resource shortages in Iraq represents an important factor in the stability of the country and in protecting sustained economic development. The need for a practical, applicable, and sustainable river basin management for the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in Iraq is essential. Applicable water resources allocation scenarios are important to minimize the potential future water crises in connection with water quality and quantity. The allocation of the available fresh water resources in addition to reclaimed water to different users in a sustainable manner is of the urgent necessities to maintain good water quantity and quality.
In this dissertation, predictive water allocation optimization models were developed which can be used to easily identify good alternatives for water management that can then be discussed, debated, adjusted, and simulated in greater detail. This study provides guidance for decision makers in Iraq for potential future conditions, where water supplies are reduced, and demonstrates how it is feasible to adopt an efficient water allocation strategy with flexibility in providing equitable water resource allocation considering alternative resource. Using reclaimed water will help in reducing the potential negative environmental impacts of treated or/and partially treated wastewater discharges while increasing the potential uses of reclaimed water for agriculture and other applications. Using reclaimed water for irrigation is logical and efficient to enhance the economy of farmers and the environment while providing a diversity of crops, especially since most of Iraq’s built or under construction wastewater treatment plants are located in or adjacent to agricultural lands. Adopting an optimization modelling approach can assist decision makers, ensuring their decisions will benefit the economy by incorporating global experiences to control water allocations in Iraq especially considering diminished water supplies.
In this dissertation, predictive water allocation optimization models were developed which can be used to easily identify good alternatives for water management that can then be discussed, debated, adjusted, and simulated in greater detail. This study provides guidance for decision makers in Iraq for potential future conditions, where water supplies are reduced, and demonstrates how it is feasible to adopt an efficient water allocation strategy with flexibility in providing equitable water resource allocation considering alternative resource. Using reclaimed water will help in reducing the potential negative environmental impacts of treated or/and partially treated wastewater discharges while increasing the potential uses of reclaimed water for agriculture and other applications. Using reclaimed water for irrigation is logical and efficient to enhance the economy of farmers and the environment while providing a diversity of crops, especially since most of Iraq’s built or under construction wastewater treatment plants are located in or adjacent to agricultural lands. Adopting an optimization modelling approach can assist decision makers, ensuring their decisions will benefit the economy by incorporating global experiences to control water allocations in Iraq especially considering diminished water supplies.
ContributorsAhmed, Ahmed Abdulrazzaq (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Muenich, Rebecca (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019