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The consequences of human land-use strategies during the PPNB-LN transition: a simulation modeling approach

Description
This dissertation investigates the long-term consequences of human land-use practices in general, and in early agricultural villages in specific. This pioneering case study investigates the "collapse" of the Early (Pre-Pottery) Neolithic lifeway, which was a major transformational event marked by significant changes in settlement patterns, material culture, and social markers.…

This dissertation investigates the long-term consequences of human land-use practices in general, and in early agricultural villages in specific. This pioneering case study investigates the "collapse" of the Early (Pre-Pottery) Neolithic lifeway, which was a major transformational event marked by significant changes in settlement patterns, material culture, and social markers. To move beyond traditional narratives of cultural collapse, I employ a Complex Adaptive Systems approach to this research, and combine agent-based computer simulations of Neolithic land-use with dynamic and spatially-explicit GIS-based environmental models to conduct experiments into long-term trajectories of different potential Neolithic socio-environmental systems. My analysis outlines how the Early Neolithic "collapse" was likely instigated by a non-linear sequence of events, and that it would have been impossible for Neolithic peoples to recognize the long-term outcome of their actions. The experiment-based simulation approach shows that, starting from the same initial conditions, complex combinations of feedback amplification, stochasticity, responses to internal and external stimuli, and the accumulation of incremental changes to the socio-natural landscape, can lead to widely divergent outcomes over time. Thus, rather than being an inevitable consequence of specific Neolithic land-use choices, the "catastrophic" transformation at the end of the Early Neolithic was an emergent property of the Early Neolithic socio-natural system itself, and thus likely not an easily predictable event. In this way, my work uses the technique of simulation modeling to connect CAS theory with the archaeological and geoarchaeological record to help better understand the causes and consequences of socio-ecological transformation at a regional scale. The research is broadly applicable to other archaeological cases of resilience and collapse, and is truly interdisciplinary in that it draws on fields such as geomorphology, computer science, and agronomy in addition to archaeology.
ContributorsUllah, Isaac (Author) / Barton, C. Michael (Thesis advisor) / Banning, Edward B. (Committee member) / Clark, Geoffrey (Committee member) / Arrowsmith, J. Ramon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013

Alternative Futures of the Past: Modeling Neolithic Landuse and its Consequences in the Ancient Mediterranean

ContributorsUllah, Isaac I. T., 1979- (Author) / Barton, C. Michael (Author)
Created2007

Simulation Modeling for Human Community and Agricultural Landuse

ContributorsMayer, Gary R. (Author) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Author) / Allen, Eowyn K. (Author) / Falconer, Steven E. (Author) / Barton, C. Michael (Author)
Created2006

Composing Agent and Landscape Models: An Example from the Mediterranean

Description

Invited paper presented at the Workshop on Aspects of Social and Socio-Environmental Dynamics, Arizona State University, January 2007.

ContributorsSarjoughian, Hessam S. (Author) / Barton, C. Michael (Author)
Created2007

Modeling Impacts of Landuse Practices on Mediterranean Landscapes

ContributorsBarton, C. Michael (Author) / Ullah, Isaac I. T., 1979- (Author)
Created2006
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Modeling Complex Ecodynamics in Mediterranean Landscapes

ContributorsBarton, C. Michael (Author)
Created2010

Coupled Models for Coupled Systems: Land-Use and Landscape Dynamics in the Mediterranean

ContributorsBarton, C. Michael (Author) / Ullah, Isaac I. T., 1979- (Author) / Mayer, Gary R. (Author) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Author) / Bergin, Sean M. (Author) / Miller, Alexandra E. (Author) / Mitasova, H. (Author)
Created2010

The Water, Energy, & Infrastructure Co-Benefits of Smart Growth Planning in Phoenix

Description

Phoenix is the sixth most populated city in the United States and the 12th largest metropolitan area by population, with about 4.4 million people. As the region continues to grow, the demand for housing and jobs within the metropolitan area is projected to rise under uncertain climate conditions.

Undergraduate and graduate…

Phoenix is the sixth most populated city in the United States and the 12th largest metropolitan area by population, with about 4.4 million people. As the region continues to grow, the demand for housing and jobs within the metropolitan area is projected to rise under uncertain climate conditions.

Undergraduate and graduate students from Engineering, Sustainability, and Urban Planning in ASU’s Urban Infrastructure Anatomy and Sustainable Development course evaluated the water, energy, and infrastructure changes that result from smart growth in Phoenix, Arizona. The Maricopa Association of Government's Sustainable Transportation and Land Use Integration Study identified a market for 485,000 residential dwelling units in the urban core. Household water and energy use changes, changes in infrastructure needs, and financial and economic savings are assessed along with associated energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

The course project has produced data on sustainable development in Phoenix and the findings will be made available through ASU’s Urban Sustainability Lab.
ContributorsNahlik, Matthew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail Vin (Author) / Andrade, Luis (Author) / Archer, Melissa (Author) / Barnes, Elizabeth (Author) / Beguelin, Maria (Author) / Bonilla, Luis (Author) / Bubenheim, Stephanie (Author) / Burillo, Daniel (Author) / Cano, Alex (Author) / Guiley, Keith (Author) / Hamad, Moayyad (Author) / Heck, John (Author) / Helble, Parker (Author) / Hsu, Will (Author) / Jensen, Tate (Author) / Kannappan, Babu (Author) / Kirtley, Kelley (Author) / LaGrou, Nick (Author) / Loeber, Jessica (Author) / Mann, Chelsea (Author) / Monk, Shawn (Author) / Paniagua, Jaime (Author) / Prasad, Saransh (Author) / Stafford, Nicholas (Author) / Unger, Scott (Author) / Volo, Tom (Author) / Watson, Mathew (Author) / Woodruff, Abbie (Author) / Arizona State University. School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Center for Earth Systems Engineering and Management (Contributor)