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This dissertation investigates spatial and temporal changes in land cover and plant species distributions on Cyprus in the past, present and future (1973-2070). Landsat image analysis supports inference of land cover changes following the political division of the island of Cyprus in 1974. Urban growth in Nicosia, Larnaka and Limasol,

This dissertation investigates spatial and temporal changes in land cover and plant species distributions on Cyprus in the past, present and future (1973-2070). Landsat image analysis supports inference of land cover changes following the political division of the island of Cyprus in 1974. Urban growth in Nicosia, Larnaka and Limasol, as well as increased development along the southern coastline, is clearly evident between 1973 and 2011. Forests of the Troodos and Kyrenia Ranges remain relatively stable, with transitions occurring most frequently between agricultural land covers and shrub/herbaceous land covers. Vegetation models were constructed for twenty-two plant species of Cyprus using Maxent to predict potentially suitable areas of occurrence. Modern vegetation models were constructed from presence-only data collected by field surveys conducted between 2008 and 2011. These models provide a baseline for the assessment of potential species distributions under two climate change scenarios (A1b and A2) for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. Climate change in Cyprus is likely to influence habitat availability, particularly for high elevation species as the relatively low elevation mountain ranges and small latitudinal range prevent species from shifting to areas of suitable environmental conditions. The loss of suitable habitat for some species may allow the introduction of non-native plant species or the expansion of generalists currently excluded from these areas. Results from future projections indicate the loss of suitable areas for most species by the year 2030 under both climate regimes and all four endemic species (Cedrus brevifolia, Helianthemum obtusifolium, Pterocephalus multiflorus, and Quercus alnifolia) are predicted to lose all suitable environments as soon as 2030. As striking exceptions Prunus dulcis (almond), Ficus carica (fig), Punica granatum (pomegranate) and Olea europaea (olive), which occur as both wild varieties and orchard cultigens, will expand under both scenarios. Land cover and species distribution maps are evaluated in concert to create a more detailed interpretation of the Cypriot landscape and to discuss the potential implications of climate change for land cover and plant species distributions.
ContributorsRidder, Elizabeth (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe W (Committee member) / Hirt, Paul W (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Accurate characterization of forest canopy cover from satellite imagery hinges on the development of a model that considers the level of detail achieved by field methods. With the improved precision of both optical sensors and various spatial techniques, models built to extract forest structure attributes have become increasingly robust, yet

Accurate characterization of forest canopy cover from satellite imagery hinges on the development of a model that considers the level of detail achieved by field methods. With the improved precision of both optical sensors and various spatial techniques, models built to extract forest structure attributes have become increasingly robust, yet many still fail to address some of the most important characteristics of a forest stand's intricate make-up. The objective of this study, therefore, was to address canopy cover from the ground, up. To assess canopy cover in the field, a vertical densitometer was used to acquire a total of 2,160 percent-cover readings from 30 randomly located triangular plots within a 6.94 km2 study area in the central highlands of the Bradshaw Ranger District, Prescott National Forest, Arizona. Categorized by species with the largest overall percentage of cover observations (Pinus ponderosa, Populus tremuloides, and Quercus gambelii), three datasets were created to assess the predictability of coniferous, deciduous, and mixed (coniferous and deciduous) canopies. Landsat-TM 5 imagery was processed using six spectral enhancement algorithms (PCA, TCT, NDVI, EVI, RVI, SAVI) and three local windows (3x3, 5x5, 7x7) to extract and assess the various ways in which these data were expressed in the imagery, and from those expressions, develop a model that predicted percent-cover for the entire study area. Generally, modeled cover estimates exceeded actual cover, over predicting percent-cover by a margin of 9-13%. Models predicted percent-cover more accurately when treated with a 3x3 local window than those treated with 5x5 and 7x7 local windows. In addition, the performance of models defined by the principal components of three vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, RVI) were superior to those defined by the principal components of all four (NDVI, EVI, RVI, SAVI), as well as the principal and tasseled cap components of all multispectral bands (bands 123457). Models designed to predict mixed and coniferous percent-cover were more accurate than deciduous models.
ContributorsSchirmang, Tracy Lynn (Author) / Myint, Soe W (Thesis advisor) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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The Dhofar Cloud Forest is one of the most diverse ecosystems on the Arabian Peninsula. As part of the South Arabian Cloud Forest that extends from southern Oman to Yemen, the cloud forest is an important center of endemism and provides valuable ecosystem services to those living in the region.

The Dhofar Cloud Forest is one of the most diverse ecosystems on the Arabian Peninsula. As part of the South Arabian Cloud Forest that extends from southern Oman to Yemen, the cloud forest is an important center of endemism and provides valuable ecosystem services to those living in the region. There have been various claims made about the health of the cloud forest and its surrounding region, the most prominent of which are: 1) variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon threatens long-term vegetation health, and 2) human encroachment is causing deforestation and land degradation. This dissertation uses three independent studies to test these claims and bring new insight about the biodiversity of the cloud forest.

Evidence is presented that shows that the vegetation dynamics of the cloud forest are resilient to most of the variability in the monsoon. Much of the biodiversity in the cloud forest is dominated by a few species with high abundance and a moderate number of species at low abundance. The characteristic tree species include Anogeissus dhofarica and Commiphora spp. These species tend to dominate the forested regions of the study area. Grasslands are dominated by species associated with overgrazing (Calotropis procera and Solanum incanum). Analysis from a land cover study conducted between 1988 and 2013 shows that deforestation has occurred to approximately 8% of the study area and decreased vegetation fractions are found throughout the region. Areas around the city of Salalah, located close to the cloud forest, show widespread degradation in the 21st century based on an NDVI time series analysis. It is concluded that humans are the primary driver of environmental change. Much of this change is tied to national policies and development priorities implemented after the Dhofar War in the 1970’s.
ContributorsGalletti, Christopher S (Author) / Turner, Billie L (Thesis advisor) / Fall, Patricia L. (Committee member) / Myint, Soe W (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description

PowerPoint presentation to the Santa Fe Institute, October 2004.

ContributorsBarton, C. Michael (Author)
Created2004
Description

Dramatic changes in land use were associated with the rise of agriculture in the mid Holocene in the Mediterranean region. Both surface properties and drainage networks were changed along with direct modifications to surface properties (vegetation removal and change, sediment liberation and compaction); consequent drainage alteration (terracing, canals) and u

Dramatic changes in land use were associated with the rise of agriculture in the mid Holocene in the Mediterranean region. Both surface properties and drainage networks were changed along with direct modifications to surface properties (vegetation removal and change, sediment liberation and compaction); consequent drainage alteration (terracing, canals) and up and downstream responses in the watersheds communicated these changes throughout the landscape.

The magnitude, rate, and feedbacks with the growing human populations are critical questions in our effort to assess human-landscape interactions. To investigate these relationships, recent field work in the Penaguila Valley of southeast Spain included landform mapping, alluvial deposit description, and sample collection emphasizing areas of active erosion, remnant land surfaces and their relation to archaeological sites.

We have updated our geomorphic maps by refining the delineation of alluvial terraces, steep-walled (40m deep) drainages ("barrancos"), and hollows ("barrancos de fondo plano"). Hollows are curved, elongate, flat-bottomed gullies with steep walls (2-30m tall) and extend headward from the main barrancos. This work enables more accurate terrace correlations necessary for both landscape evolution modeling and interpretation of the development history of the basin.

Alluvial terraces are crucial to this research because they record periods of past stable topography. In the Penaguila, sites dating back to late Mesolithic and early Neolithic (around 6600 BP) and subsequent periods (Chalcolithic and Bronze Age) are exposed on a prominent terrace surface mapped as Terrace A. This broad low relief surface is scarred by deep barrancos and hollow formation that expose bedrock marls and overlying alluvial deposits. Stratigraphic profiles and texture analyses of Terrace A deposits reveal overland flow facies and channel networks in reworked and CaCO3-encrusted marls, and several organic-rich paleosols. Small remnant surfaces mapped as Terrace Z (below Terrace A) were observed within the main barrancos and indicate a later, brief accumulation period with subsequent incision to the modern channel.

Holocene landscape development in the Penaguila appears to have progressed from a period of stability to slope denudation with aggradation (stream infilling) followed by rapid incision which initiated sometime near the time of occupation. This change from a low relief alluvial surface to one cut by narrow channels may have been an important shift for local populations. Their response to that environmental modification may be associated with the horticulturalist to agricultural intensification noted in the archaeological record. Tighter chronology and better understanding of the driving processes for barranco incision and hollow formation will improve our ability to correlate the changing landscape with land use practices. Such an improved correlation leads to better understanding of human-landscape interactions.

ContributorsDiMaggio, E. N. (Author) / La Roca, N. (Author) / Arrowsmith, J. Ramon (Author) / Diez-Castillo, A. (Author) / Bernabeu, J. (Author) / Barton, C. Michael (Author)