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- All Subjects: Asset Management
- Creators: Yan, Hong
- Creators: Liang, Bing
- Creators: Underwood, Benjamin S
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Pavement management systems and performance prediction modeling tools are essential for maintaining an efficient and cost effective roadway network. One indicator of pavement performance is the International Roughness Index (IRI), which is a measure of ride quality and also impacts road safety. Many transportation agencies use IRI to allocate annual maintenance and rehabilitation strategies to their road network.
The objective of the work in this study was to develop a methodology to evaluate and predict pavement roughness over the pavement service life. Unlike previous studies, a unique aspect of this work was the use of non-linear mathematical function, sigmoidal growth function, to model the IRI data and provide agencies with the information needed for decision making in asset management and funding allocation. The analysis included data from two major databases (case studies): Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) and the Minnesota Department of Transportation MnROAD research program. Each case study analyzed periodic IRI measurements, which were used to develop the sigmoidal models.
The analysis aimed to demonstrate several concepts; that the LTPP and MnROAD roughness data could be represented using the sigmoidal growth function, that periodic IRI measurements collected for road sections with similar characteristics could be processed to develop an IRI curve representing the pavement deterioration for this group, and that pavement deterioration using historical IRI data can provide insight on traffic loading, material, and climate effects. The results of the two case studies concluded that in general, pavement sections without drainage systems, narrower lanes, higher traffic, or measured in the outermost lane were observed to have more rapid deterioration trends than their counterparts.
Overall, this study demonstrated that the sigmoidal growth function is a viable option for roughness deterioration modeling. This research not only to demonstrated how historical roughness can be modeled, but also how the same framework could be applied to other measures of pavement performance which deteriorate in a similar manner, including distress severity, present serviceability rating, and friction loss. These sigmoidal models are regarded to provide better understanding of particular pavement network deterioration, which in turn can provide value in asset management and resource allocation planning.
Through the empirical analysis of the Chinese A-share stocks from May 8th,2006 to December 31st, 2016, I found that from the 40th day before the unlocking day to the 90th day after, the stock price showed an evident first-downward-then upward trend. The lowest price appeared near the unlocking day. Meanwhile, the greater stocks fall before the unlocking day, the greater prices rise after that. The characteristics of the distinctive difference between the stock prices before and after the unlocking day can provide investment opportunities.
By reviewing research on investor behavior, this paper suggests that the V-shaped pattern can be explained by the influence of investors’ psychological factors on their trading behavior. The general performance of the stocks before the unlocking day is negative due to the increasing uncertainty perceived by investors. After the unlocking day, the uncertainty gradually disappears and the stock rebounds. In addition, I found that stock returns during the lock-up period, shareholder background, and the length of lock-up period also had significant impacts on the V-shaped price trend.
关键词: FOF、因子投资、组合配置、特质因子
其次,本文主要使用文献研究、案例研究、实证分析,选取中、美、德、日四家不同传承阶段、不同传承模式的知名民营企业,对其传承情况进行深入研究。在此基础上,归纳总结出传承的关键要素,对前述五个问题进行系统解答。同时,本文创新性地结合理论研究、案例研究及企业实践,提出适合我国大部分民营企业的传承全周期管理框架。
最后,根据以上研究,本文总结出关于中国民营企业传承的八大结论及建议:1、本质:权力的交接和义务的传递;2、两大风险:继任风险(继任人的能力要求)、代理风险(继任人对企业核心理念的意愿/忠诚度);3、降低风险的四大机制:领袖锻造、人才梯队、管控治理、激励机制;4、两大成功要素:“选领袖”和“建机制”;5、四大机制是并行推进、相辅相成的,要尽早构建、持续优化;6、三大模式:家族成员继承、内生培养经理人、外聘职业经理人;7、民营企业传承模型包含七大要素、五大步骤;8、民营企业在制定传承方案时,除了要注意传承模型中的要素,还要注意其他关键要素。