Matching Items (114)
Description
In the field of infectious disease epidemiology, the assessment of model robustness outcomes plays a significant role in the identification, reformulation, and evaluation of preparedness strategies aimed at limiting the impact of catastrophic events (pandemics or the deliberate release of biological agents) or used in the management of disease prevention strategies, or employed in the identification and evaluation of control or mitigation measures. The research work in this dissertation focuses on: The comparison and assessment of the role of exponentially distributed waiting times versus the use of generalized non-exponential parametric distributed waiting times of infectious periods on the quantitative and qualitative outcomes generated by Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models. Specifically, Gamma distributed infectious periods are considered in the three research projects developed following the applications found in (Bailey 1964, Anderson 1980, Wearing 2005, Feng 2007, Feng 2007, Yan 2008, lloyd 2009, Vergu 2010). i) The first project focuses on the influence of input model parameters, such as the transmission rate, mean and variance of Gamma distributed infectious periods, on disease prevalence, the peak epidemic size and its timing, final epidemic size, epidemic duration and basic reproduction number. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using a deterministic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. The quantitative effect and qualitative relation between input model parameters and outcome variables are established using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) and Spearman rank correlation coefficient (RCC) sensitivity indices. We learnt that: For relatively low (R0 close to one) to high (mean of R0 equals 15) transmissibility, the variance of the Gamma distribution for the infectious period, input parameter of the deterministic age-of-infection SIR model, is key (statistically significant) on the predictability of the epidemiological variables such as the epidemic duration and the peak size and timing of the prevalence of infectious individuals and therefore, for the predictability these variables, it is preferable to utilize a nonlinear system of Volterra integral equations, rather than a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations. The predictability of epidemiological variables such as the final epidemic size and the basic reproduction number are unaffected by (or independent of) the variance of the Gamma distribution for the infectious period and therefore for the choice on which type of nonlinear system for the description of the SIR model (VIE's or ODE's) is irrelevant. Although, for practical proposes, with the aim of lowering the complexity and number operations in the numerical methods, a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations is preferred. The main contribution lies in the development of a model based decision-tool that helps determine when SIR models given in terms of Volterra integral equations are equivalent or better suited than SIR models that only consider exponentially distributed infectious periods. ii) The second project addresses the question of whether or not there is sufficient evidence to conclude that two empirical distributions for a single epidemiological outcome, one generated using a stochastic SIR model under exponentially distributed infectious periods and the other under the non-exponentially distributed infectious period, are statistically dissimilar. The stochastic formulations are modeled via a continuous time Markov chain model. The statistical hypothesis test is conducted using the non-parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We found evidence that shows that for low to moderate transmissibility, all empirical distribution pairs (generated from exponential and non-exponential distributions) for each of the epidemiological quantities considered are statistically dissimilar. The research in this project helps determine whether the weakening exponential distribution assumption must be considered in the estimation of probability of events defined from the empirical distribution of specific random variables. iii) The third project involves the assessment of the effect of exponentially distributed infectious periods on estimates of input parameter and the associated outcome variable predictions. Quantities unaffected by the use of exponentially distributed infectious period within low transmissibility scenarios include, the prevalence peak time, final epidemic size, epidemic duration and basic reproduction number and for high transmissibility scenarios only the prevalence peak time and final epidemic size. An application designed to determine from incidence data whether there is sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the infectious period distribution should not be modeled by an exponential distribution is developed. A method for estimating explicitly specified non-exponential parametric probability density functions for the infectious period from epidemiological data is developed. The methodologies presented in this dissertation may be applicable to models where waiting times are used to model transitions between stages, a process that is common in the study of life-history dynamics of many ecological systems.
ContributorsMorales Butler, Emmanuel J (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Aparicio, Juan P (Thesis advisor) / Camacho, Erika T (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Cell morphology and the distribution of voltage gated ion channels play a major role in determining a neuron's firing behavior, resulting in the specific processing of spatiotemporal synaptic input patterns. Although many studies have provided insight into the computational properties arising from neuronal structure as well as from channel kinetics, no comprehensive theory exists which explains how the interaction of these features shapes neuronal excitability. In this study computational models based on the identified Drosophila motoneuron (MN) 5 are developed to investigate the role of voltage gated ion channels, the impact of their densities and the effects of structural features.
First, a spatially collapsed model is used to develop voltage gated ion channels to study the excitability of the model neuron. Changing the channel densities reproduces different in situ observed firing patterns and induces a switch from resonator to integrator properties. Second, morphologically realistic multicompartment models are studied to investigate the passive properties of MN5. The passive electrical parameters fall in a range that is commonly observed in neurons, MN5 is spatially not compact, but for the single subtrees synaptic efficacy is location independent. Further, different subtrees are electrically independent from each other. Third, a continuum approach is used to formulate a new cable theoretic model to study the output in a dendritic cable with many subtrees, both analytically and computationally. The model is validated, by comparing it to a corresponding model with discrete branches. Further, the approach is demonstrated using MN5 and used to investigate spatially distributions of voltage gated ion channels.
First, a spatially collapsed model is used to develop voltage gated ion channels to study the excitability of the model neuron. Changing the channel densities reproduces different in situ observed firing patterns and induces a switch from resonator to integrator properties. Second, morphologically realistic multicompartment models are studied to investigate the passive properties of MN5. The passive electrical parameters fall in a range that is commonly observed in neurons, MN5 is spatially not compact, but for the single subtrees synaptic efficacy is location independent. Further, different subtrees are electrically independent from each other. Third, a continuum approach is used to formulate a new cable theoretic model to study the output in a dendritic cable with many subtrees, both analytically and computationally. The model is validated, by comparing it to a corresponding model with discrete branches. Further, the approach is demonstrated using MN5 and used to investigate spatially distributions of voltage gated ion channels.
ContributorsBerger, Sandra (Author) / Crook, Sharon (Thesis advisor) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Hamm, Thomas (Committee member) / Smith, Brian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) most frequently occurs in pediatric patients and remains a leading cause of childhood death and disability. Mild TBI (mTBI) accounts for 70-90% of all TBI cases, yet its neuropathophysiology is still poorly understood. While a single mTBI injury can lead to persistent deficits, repeat injuries increase the severity and duration of both acute symptoms and long term deficits. In this study, to model pediatric repetitive mTBI (rmTBI) we subjected unrestrained juvenile animals (post-natal day 20) to repeat weight drop impact. Animals were anesthetized and subjected to sham or rmTBI once per day for 5 days. At 14 days post injury (PID), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed that rmTBI animals displayed marked cortical atrophy and ventriculomegaly. Specifically, the thickness of the cortex was reduced up to 46% beneath and the ventricles increased up to 970% beneath the impact zone. Immunostaining with the neuron specific marker NeuN revealed an overall loss of neurons within the motor cortex but no change in neuronal density. Examination of intrinsic and synaptic properties of layer II/III pyramidal neurons revealed no significant difference between sham and rmTBI animals at rest or under convulsant challenge with the potassium channel blocker, 4-Aminophyridine. Overall, our findings indicate that the neuropathological changes reported after pediatric rmTBI can be effectively modeled by repeat weight drop in juvenile animals. Developing a better understanding of how rmTBI alters the pediatric brain may help improve patient care and direct "return to game" decision making in adolescents.
ContributorsGoddeyne, Corey (Author) / Anderson, Trent (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Brian (Committee member) / Kleim, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), the sixth most common cancer
type worldwide, accounts for more than 630,000 new cases and 350,000 deaths
annually. Drug-resistance and tumor recurrence are the most challenging problems
in head and neck cancer treatment. It is hypothesized that a very small fraction
of stem-like cells within HNSCC tumor, called cancer stem cells (CSCs), is
responsible for tumor initiation, progression, resistance and recurrence. It has also
been shown that IL-6 secreted by head and neck tumor-associated endothelial cells
(ECs) enhances the survival, self-renewal and tumorigenic potential of head and
neck CSCs. In this study we will use a mathematical multi-scale model which operates
at the intracellular, molecular, and tissue level to investigate the impacts of
EC-secreted IL-6 signaling on the crosstalk between tumor cells and ECs during
tumor growth. This model will be calibrated by using the experimental in vivo
data.
Eventually the model will be modified to explore the responses of head and neck
cancer cells to combination therapy involving Tocilizumab (an anti-IL-6R antibody)
and Cisplatin (the most frequently used chemotherapy for head and neck
cancer). The model will be able to predict the final proportion of CSCs in response
to endothelial cell-secreted IL-6 and drug therapies. The model will be validated
by directly comparing the experimental treatment data and the model predictions.
This could potentially provide a condition under which we could control enlargement
of the head and neck CSC pool and tumor recurrence. It may also suggest
the best bounds for Cisplatin and/or Tocilizumab dose and frequency to be tested
in the clinical trial.
type worldwide, accounts for more than 630,000 new cases and 350,000 deaths
annually. Drug-resistance and tumor recurrence are the most challenging problems
in head and neck cancer treatment. It is hypothesized that a very small fraction
of stem-like cells within HNSCC tumor, called cancer stem cells (CSCs), is
responsible for tumor initiation, progression, resistance and recurrence. It has also
been shown that IL-6 secreted by head and neck tumor-associated endothelial cells
(ECs) enhances the survival, self-renewal and tumorigenic potential of head and
neck CSCs. In this study we will use a mathematical multi-scale model which operates
at the intracellular, molecular, and tissue level to investigate the impacts of
EC-secreted IL-6 signaling on the crosstalk between tumor cells and ECs during
tumor growth. This model will be calibrated by using the experimental in vivo
data.
Eventually the model will be modified to explore the responses of head and neck
cancer cells to combination therapy involving Tocilizumab (an anti-IL-6R antibody)
and Cisplatin (the most frequently used chemotherapy for head and neck
cancer). The model will be able to predict the final proportion of CSCs in response
to endothelial cell-secreted IL-6 and drug therapies. The model will be validated
by directly comparing the experimental treatment data and the model predictions.
This could potentially provide a condition under which we could control enlargement
of the head and neck CSC pool and tumor recurrence. It may also suggest
the best bounds for Cisplatin and/or Tocilizumab dose and frequency to be tested
in the clinical trial.
ContributorsNazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Jackson, Trachette L. (Thesis advisor, Committee member) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Committee member) / Towers, Sherry (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation will look at large scale collaboration through the lens of online communities to answer questions about what makes a collaboration persist. Results address how collaborations attract contributions, behaviors that could give rise to patterns seen in the data, and the properties of collaborations that drive those behaviors.
It is understood that collaborations, online and otherwise, must retain users to remain productive. However, before users can be retained they must be recruited. In the first project, a few necessary properties of the ``attraction'' function are identified by constraining the dynamics of an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) model. Additionally, more than 100 communities of the Stack Exchange networks are parameterized and their distributions reported.
Collaborations do not exist in a vacuum, they compete with and share users with other collaborations. To address this, the second project focuses on an agent-based model (ABM) of a community of online collaborations using a mechanistic approach. The ABM is compared to data obtained from the Stack Exchange network and produces similar distributional patterns.
The third project is a thorough sensitivity analysis of the model created in the second project. A variance based sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative importance of 21 parameters of the model. Results indicate that population parameters impact many outcome metrics, though even those parameters that tend towards a low impact can be crucial for some outcomes.
It is understood that collaborations, online and otherwise, must retain users to remain productive. However, before users can be retained they must be recruited. In the first project, a few necessary properties of the ``attraction'' function are identified by constraining the dynamics of an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) model. Additionally, more than 100 communities of the Stack Exchange networks are parameterized and their distributions reported.
Collaborations do not exist in a vacuum, they compete with and share users with other collaborations. To address this, the second project focuses on an agent-based model (ABM) of a community of online collaborations using a mechanistic approach. The ABM is compared to data obtained from the Stack Exchange network and produces similar distributional patterns.
The third project is a thorough sensitivity analysis of the model created in the second project. A variance based sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative importance of 21 parameters of the model. Results indicate that population parameters impact many outcome metrics, though even those parameters that tend towards a low impact can be crucial for some outcomes.
ContributorsManning, Miles (Author) / Janssen, Marcus A (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Foraging strategies in social animals are often shaped by change in an organism's natural surrounding. Foraging behavior can hence be highly plastic, time, and condition dependent. The motivation of my research is to explore the effects of dispersal behavior in predators or parasites on population dynamics in heterogeneous environments by developing varied models in different contexts through closely working with ecologists. My models include Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE)-type meta population models and Delay Differential Equation (DDE) models with validation through data. I applied dynamical theory and bifurcation theory with carefully designed numerical simulations to have a better understanding on the profitability and cost of an adaptive dispersal in organisms. My work on the prey-predator models provide important insights on how different dispersal strategies may have different impacts on the spatial patterns and also shows that the change of dispersal strategy in organisms may have stabilizing or destabilizing effects leading to extinction or coexistence of species. I also develop models for honeybee population dynamics and its interaction with the parasitic Varroa mite. At first, I investigate the effect of dispersal on honeybee colonies under infestation by the Varroa mites. I then provide another single patch model by considering a stage structure time delay system from brood to adult honeybee. Through a close collaboration with a biologist, a honeybee and mite population data was first used to validate my model and I estimated certain unknown parameters by utilizing least square Monte Carlo method. My analytical, bifurcations, sensitivity analysis, and numerical studies first reveal the dynamical outcomes of migration. In addition, the results point us in the direction of the most sensitive life history parameters affecting the population size of a colony. These results provide novel insights on the effects of foraging and Varroa mites on colony survival.
ContributorsMessan, Komi Segno (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Degrandi-Hoffman, Gloria D (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco A (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Food is an essential driver of animal behavior. For social organisms, the acquisition of food guides interactions with the environment and with group-mates. Studies have focused on how social individuals find and choose food sources, and share both food and information with group-mates. However, it is often not clear how experiences throughout an individual's life influence such interactions. The core question of this thesis is how individuals’ experience contributes to within-caste behavioral variation in a social group. I investigate the effects of individual history, including physical injury and food-related experience, on individuals' social food sharing behavior, responses to food-related stimuli, and the associated neural biogenic amine signaling pathways. I use the eusocial honey bee (Apis mellifera) system, one in which individuals exhibit a high degree of plasticity in responses to environmental stimuli and there is a richness of communicatory pathways for food-related information. Foraging exposes honey bees to aversive experiences such as predation, con-specific competition, and environmental toxins. I show that foraging experience changes individuals' response thresholds to sucrose, a main component of adults’ diets, depending on whether foraging conditions are benign or aversive. Bodily injury is demonstrated to reduce individuals' appetitive responses to new, potentially food-predictive odors. Aversive conditions also impact an individual's social food sharing behavior; mouth-to-mouse trophallaxis with particular groupmates is modulated by aversive foraging conditions both for foragers who directly experienced these conditions and non-foragers who were influenced via social contact with foragers. Although the mechanisms underlying these behavioral changes have yet to be resolved, my results implicate biogenic amine signaling pathways as a potential component. Serotonin and octopamine concentrations are shown to undergo long-term change due to distinct foraging experiences. My work serves to highlight the malleability of a social individual's food-related behavior, suggesting that environmental conditions shape how individuals respond to food and share information with group-mates. This thesis contributes to a deeper understanding of inter-individual variation in animal behavior.
ContributorsFinkelstein, Abigail (Author) / Amdam, Gro V (Thesis advisor) / Conrad, Cheryl (Committee member) / Smith, Brian (Committee member) / Neisewander, Janet (Committee member) / Bimonte-Nelson, Heather A. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The goal of the present study was to investigate whether a rest period following the end of chronic stress would impact fear extinction. Past research has indicated that chronic stress leads to impairments in the learning and recall of fear conditioning extinction. Moreover, the effects of chronic stress can return to levels similar to controls when a post-stress “rest” period (i.e., undisturbed except for normal husbandry) is given prior to testing. Male rats underwent chronic restraint stress for 6hr/day/21days (STR-IMM). Some rats, underwent a post-stress rest period for 6- or 3-weeks after the end of stress (STR-R6, STR-R3). Control (CON) rats were unrestrained for the duration of the experiment. In Experiment 1, following the stress or rest manipulation, all rats were acclimated to conditioning and extinction contexts, fear conditioned with 3 tone-foot shock pairings, and then had two days of extinction training. All groups froze similarly to the tone across all training sessions. However, STR-R6/R3 froze less in the non-shock context than did STR-IMM or CON. During extinction training, STR-IMM showed high levels of freezing to the non-shock context, leading to a concern they may be generalizing across contexts. Consequently, a follow-up experiment tested for context generalization. In Experiment 2, STR-IMM rats underwent a generalization test in an environment that was either different or the same as the conditioning environment, using STR-R6 as a comparison. STR-IMM and STR-R6 showed similar relative levels of freezing to tone and context, regardless of their conditioning environment to reveal that STR-IMM did not generalize and instead, maybe expressing hypervigilance. Thus, the present study demonstrated the novel finding that a rest period from chronic stress can lead to reduced fear responsiveness in a non-shock environment.
ContributorsJudd, Jessica M (Author) / Conrad, Cheryl D. (Thesis advisor) / Sanabria, Federico (Committee member) / Smith, Brian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
In this dissertation the potential impact of some social, cultural and economic factors on
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) dynamics and control are studied. In Chapter two, the inability
to detect and isolate a large fraction of EVD-infected individuals before symptoms onset is
addressed. A mathematical model, calibrated with data from the 2014 West African outbreak,
is used to show the dynamics of EVD control under various quarantine and isolation
effectiveness regimes. It is shown that in order to make a difference it must reach a high
proportion of the infected population. The effect of EVD-dead bodies has been incorporated
in the quarantine effectiveness. In Chapter four, the potential impact of differential
risk is assessed. A two-patch model without explicitly incorporate quarantine is used to
assess the impact of mobility on communities at risk of EVD. It is shown that the
overall EVD burden may lessen when mobility in this artificial high-low risk society is allowed.
The cost that individuals in the low-risk patch must pay, as measured by secondary
cases is highlighted. In Chapter five a model explicitly incorporating patch-specific quarantine
levels is used to show that quarantine a large enough proportion of the population
under effective isolation leads to a measurable reduction of secondary cases in the presence
of mobility. It is shown that sharing limited resources can improve the effectiveness of
EVD effective control in the two-patch high-low risk system. Identifying the conditions
under which the low-risk community would be willing to accept the increases in EVD risk,
needed to reduce the total number of secondary cases in a community composed of two
patches with highly differentiated risks has not been addressed. In summary, this dissertation
looks at EVD dynamics within an idealized highly polarized world where resources
are primarily in the hands of a low-risk community – a community of lower density, higher
levels of education and reasonable health services – that shares a “border” with a high-risk
community that lacks minimal resources to survive an EVD outbreak.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) dynamics and control are studied. In Chapter two, the inability
to detect and isolate a large fraction of EVD-infected individuals before symptoms onset is
addressed. A mathematical model, calibrated with data from the 2014 West African outbreak,
is used to show the dynamics of EVD control under various quarantine and isolation
effectiveness regimes. It is shown that in order to make a difference it must reach a high
proportion of the infected population. The effect of EVD-dead bodies has been incorporated
in the quarantine effectiveness. In Chapter four, the potential impact of differential
risk is assessed. A two-patch model without explicitly incorporate quarantine is used to
assess the impact of mobility on communities at risk of EVD. It is shown that the
overall EVD burden may lessen when mobility in this artificial high-low risk society is allowed.
The cost that individuals in the low-risk patch must pay, as measured by secondary
cases is highlighted. In Chapter five a model explicitly incorporating patch-specific quarantine
levels is used to show that quarantine a large enough proportion of the population
under effective isolation leads to a measurable reduction of secondary cases in the presence
of mobility. It is shown that sharing limited resources can improve the effectiveness of
EVD effective control in the two-patch high-low risk system. Identifying the conditions
under which the low-risk community would be willing to accept the increases in EVD risk,
needed to reduce the total number of secondary cases in a community composed of two
patches with highly differentiated risks has not been addressed. In summary, this dissertation
looks at EVD dynamics within an idealized highly polarized world where resources
are primarily in the hands of a low-risk community – a community of lower density, higher
levels of education and reasonable health services – that shares a “border” with a high-risk
community that lacks minimal resources to survive an EVD outbreak.
ContributorsEspinoza Cortes, Baltazar (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Safan, Muntaser (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation explores the impact of environmental dependent risk on disease dynamics within a Lagrangian modeling perspective; where the identity (defined by place of residency) of individuals is preserved throughout the epidemic process. In Chapter Three, the impact of individuals who refuse to be vaccinated is explored. MMR vaccination and birth rate data from the State of California are used to determine the impact of the anti-vaccine movement on the dynamics of growth of the anti-vaccine sub-population. Dissertation results suggest that under realistic California social dynamics scenarios, it is not possible to revert the influence of anti-vaccine
contagion. In Chapter Four, the dynamics of Zika virus are explored in two highly distinct idealized environments defined by a parameter that models highly distinctive levels of risk, the result of vector and host density and vector control measures. The underlying assumption is that these two communities are intimately connected due to economics with the impact of various patterns of mobility being incorporated via
the use of residency times. In short, a highly heterogeneous community is defined by its risk of acquiring a Zika infection within one of two "spaces," one lacking access to health services or effective vector control policies (lack of resources or ignored due to high levels of crime, or poverty, or both). Low risk regions are defined as those with access to solid health facilities and where vector control measures are implemented routinely. It was found that the better connected these communities are, the existence of communities where mobility between risk regions is not hampered, lower the overall, two patch Zika prevalence. Chapter Five focuses on the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB), a communicable disease, also on an idealized high-low risk set up. The impact of mobility within these two highly distinct TB-risk environments on the dynamics and control of this disease is systematically explored. It is found that collaboration and mobility, under some circumstances, can reduce the overall TB burden.
contagion. In Chapter Four, the dynamics of Zika virus are explored in two highly distinct idealized environments defined by a parameter that models highly distinctive levels of risk, the result of vector and host density and vector control measures. The underlying assumption is that these two communities are intimately connected due to economics with the impact of various patterns of mobility being incorporated via
the use of residency times. In short, a highly heterogeneous community is defined by its risk of acquiring a Zika infection within one of two "spaces," one lacking access to health services or effective vector control policies (lack of resources or ignored due to high levels of crime, or poverty, or both). Low risk regions are defined as those with access to solid health facilities and where vector control measures are implemented routinely. It was found that the better connected these communities are, the existence of communities where mobility between risk regions is not hampered, lower the overall, two patch Zika prevalence. Chapter Five focuses on the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB), a communicable disease, also on an idealized high-low risk set up. The impact of mobility within these two highly distinct TB-risk environments on the dynamics and control of this disease is systematically explored. It is found that collaboration and mobility, under some circumstances, can reduce the overall TB burden.
ContributorsMoreno Martínez, Victor Manuel (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Mubayi, Anuj (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018