The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is a significant worldwide problem caused by rapid population growth and associated urbanization. The UHI effect exacerbates heat waves during the summer, increases energy and water consumption, and causes the high risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. UHI mitigation efforts have increasingly relied on wisely designing the urban residential environment such as using high albedo rooftops, green rooftops, and planting trees and shrubs to provide canopy coverage and shading. Thus, strategically designed residential rooftops and their surrounding landscaping have the potential to translate into significant energy, long-term cost savings, and health benefits. Rooftop albedo, material, color, area, slope, height, aspect and nearby landscaping are factors that potentially contribute. To extract, derive, and analyze these rooftop parameters and outdoor landscaping information, high resolution optical satellite imagery, LIDAR (light detection and ranging) point clouds and thermal imagery are necessary. Using data from the City of Tempe AZ (a 2010 population of 160,000 people), we extracted residential rooftop footprints and rooftop configuration parameters from airborne LIDAR point clouds and QuickBird satellite imagery (2.4 m spatial resolution imagery). Those parameters were analyzed against surface temperature data from the MODIS/ASTER airborne simulator (MASTER). MASTER images provided fine resolution (7 m) surface temperature data for residential areas during daytime and night time. Utilizing these data, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to evaluate the relationships between residential building rooftops and their surface temperature in urban environment. The results showed that daytime rooftop temperature was closely related to rooftop spectral attributes, aspect, slope, and surrounding trees. Night time temperature was only influenced by rooftop spectral attributes and slope.

Predicting the timing of a castrate resistant prostate cancer is critical to lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. We formulate, compare and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). We accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). While these models are simplifications of a previously published model, they fit data with similar accuracy and improve forecasting results. Both models describe the progression of androgen resistance. Although Model 1 is simpler than the more realistic Model 2, it can fit clinical data to a greater precision. However, we found that Model 2 can forecast future PSA levels more accurately. These findings suggest that including more realistic mechanisms of androgen dynamics in a two population model may help androgen resistance timing prediction.

Background:
Data assimilation refers to methods for updating the state vector (initial condition) of a complex spatiotemporal model (such as a numerical weather model) by combining new observations with one or more prior forecasts. We consider the potential feasibility of this approach for making short-term (60-day) forecasts of the growth and spread of a malignant brain cancer (glioblastoma multiforme) in individual patient cases, where the observations are synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor.

Results:
We apply a modern state estimation algorithm (the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter), previously developed for numerical weather prediction, to two different mathematical models of glioblastoma, taking into account likely errors in model parameters and measurement uncertainties in magnetic resonance imaging. The filter can accurately shadow the growth of a representative synthetic tumor for 360 days (six 60-day forecast/update cycles) in the presence of a moderate degree of systematic model error and measurement noise.

Conclusions:
The mathematical methodology described here may prove useful for other modeling efforts in biology and oncology. An accurate forecast system for glioblastoma may prove useful in clinical settings for treatment planning and patient counseling.