Matching Items (155)
Description
This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The archaeological record suggests that increases in social complexity were linked to climatic episodes (e.g., favorable climatic conditions coincide with intervals of prosperity or marked social development such as the Neolithic Revolution ca. 11.5 ka BP, the Secondary Products Revolution ca. 6 ka BP, and the Middle Bronze Age ca. 4 ka BP). The opposite can be said about periods of climatic deterioration, when settled villages were abandoned as the inhabitants returned to nomadic or semi nomadic lifestyles (e.g., abandonment of the largest Neolithic farming towns after 8 ka BP and collapse of Bronze Age towns and cities after 3.5 ka BP during the Late Bronze Age). This study develops chronologically refined models of past vegetation from 12 to 2.5 ka BP, at 500 year intervals, using GIS, remote sensing and statistical modeling tools (MAXENT) that derive from species distribution modeling. Plants are sensitive to alterations in their environment and respond accordingly. Because of this, they are valuable indicators of landscape change. An extensive database of historical and field gathered observations was created. Using this database as well as environmental variables that include temperature and precipitation surfaces for the whole study period (also at 500 year intervals), the potential vegetation of the region was modeled. Through this means, a continuous chronology of potential vegetation of the Southern Levantwas built. The produced paleo-vegetation models generally agree with the proxy records. They indicate a gradual decline of forests and expansion of steppe and desert throughout the Holocene, interrupted briefly during the Mid Holocene (ca. 4 ka BP, Middle Bronze Age). They also suggest that during the Early Holocene, forest areas were extensive, spreading into the Northern Negev. The two remaining forested areas in the Northern and Southern Plateau Region in Jordan were also connected during this time. The models also show general agreement with the major cultural developments, with forested areas either expanding or remaining stable during prosperous periods (e.g., Pre Pottery Neolithic and Middle Bronze Age), and significantly contracting during moments of instability (e.g., Late Bronze Age).
ContributorsSoto-Berelov, Mariela (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Turner, Billie L (Committee member) / Falconer, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Two critical limitations for hyperspatial imagery are higher imagery variances and large data sizes. Although object-based analyses with a multi-scale framework for diverse object sizes are the solution, more data sources and large amounts of testing at high costs are required. In this study, I used tree density segmentation as the key element of a three-level hierarchical vegetation framework for reducing those costs, and a three-step procedure was used to evaluate its effects. A two-step procedure, which involved environmental stratifications and the random walker algorithm, was used for tree density segmentation. I determined whether variation in tone and texture could be reduced within environmental strata, and whether tree density segmentations could be labeled by species associations. At the final level, two tree density segmentations were partitioned into smaller subsets using eCognition in order to label individual species or tree stands in two test areas of two tree densities, and the Z values of Moran's I were used to evaluate whether imagery objects have different mean values from near segmentations as a measure of segmentation accuracy. The two-step procedure was able to delineating tree density segments and label species types robustly, compared to previous hierarchical frameworks. However, eCognition was not able to produce detailed, reasonable image objects with optimal scale parameters for species labeling. This hierarchical vegetation framework is applicable for fine-scale, time-series vegetation mapping to develop baseline data for evaluating climate change impacts on vegetation at low cost using widely available data and a personal laptop.
ContributorsLiau, Yan-ting (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Turner, Billie (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Land transformation under conditions of rapid urbanization has significantly altered the structure and functioning of Earth's systems. Land fragmentation, a characteristic of land transformation, is recognized as a primary driving force in the loss of biological diversity worldwide. However, little is known about its implications in complex urban settings where interaction with social dynamics is intense. This research asks: How do patterns of land cover and land fragmentation vary over time and space, and what are the socio-ecological drivers and consequences of land transformation in a rapidly growing city? Using Metropolitan Phoenix as a case study, the research links pattern and process relationships between land cover, land fragmentation, and socio-ecological systems in the region. It examines population growth, water provision and institutions as major drivers of land transformation, and the changes in bird biodiversity that result from land transformation. How to manage socio-ecological systems is one of the biggest challenges of moving towards sustainability. This research project provides a deeper understanding of how land transformation affects socio-ecological dynamics in an urban setting. It uses a series of indices to evaluate land cover and fragmentation patterns over the past twenty years, including land patch numbers, contagion, shapes, and diversities. It then generates empirical evidence on the linkages between land cover patterns and ecosystem properties by exploring the drivers and impacts of land cover change. An interdisciplinary approach that integrates social, ecological, and spatial analysis is applied in this research. Findings of the research provide a documented dataset that can help researchers study the relationship between human activities and biotic processes in an urban setting, and contribute to sustainable urban development.
ContributorsZhang, Sainan (Author) / Boone, Christopher G. (Thesis advisor) / York, Abigail M. (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Problem: The prospect that urban heat island (UHI) effects and climate change may increase urban temperatures is a problem for cities that actively promote urban redevelopment and higher densities. One possible UHI mitigation strategy is to plant more trees and other irrigated vegetation to prevent daytime heat storage and facilitate nighttime cooling, but this requires water resources that are limited in a desert city like Phoenix.
Purpose: We investigated the tradeoffs between water use and nighttime cooling inherent in urban form and land use choices.
Methods: We used a Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) model to examine the variation in temperature and evaporation in 10 census tracts in Phoenix's urban core. After validating results with estimates of outdoor water use based on tract-level city water records and satellite imagery, we used the model to simulate the temperature and water use consequences of implementing three different scenarios.
Results and conclusions: We found that increasing irrigated landscaping lowers nighttime temperatures, but this relationship is not linear; the greatest reductions occur in the least vegetated neighborhoods. A ratio of the change in water use to temperature impact reached a threshold beyond which increased outdoor water use did little to ameliorate UHI effects.
Takeaway for practice: There is no one design and landscape plan capable of addressing increasing UHI and climate effects everywhere. Any one strategy will have inconsistent results if applied across all urban landscape features and may lead to an inefficient allocation of scarce water resources.
Research Support: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant SES-0345945 (Decision Center for a Desert City) and by the City of Phoenix Water Services Department. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.
ContributorsGober, Patricia (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Quay, Ray (Author) / Myint, Soe (Author) / Grossman-Clarke, Susanne (Author) / Miller, Adam (Author) / Rossi, Steve (Author)
Created2010-01-04
Description
This study addresses a classic sustainability challenge—the tradeoff between water conservation and temperature amelioration in rapidly growing cities, using Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon as case studies. An urban energy balance model— LUMPS (Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme)—is used to represent the tradeoff between outdoor water use and nighttime cooling during hot, dry summer months. Tradeoffs were characterized under three scenarios of land use change and three climate-change assumptions. Decreasing vegetation density reduced outdoor water use but sacrificed nighttime cooling. Increasing vegetated surfaces accelerated nighttime cooling, but increased outdoor water use by ~20%. Replacing impervious surfaces with buildings achieved similar improvements in nighttime cooling with minimal increases in outdoor water use; it was the most water-efficient cooling strategy. The fact that nighttime cooling rates and outdoor water use were more sensitive to land use scenarios than climate-change simulations suggested that cities can adapt to a warmer climate by manipulating land use.
ContributorsGober, Patricia (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Myint, Soe (Author) / Chang, Heejun (Author) / Duh, Jiunn-Der (Author) / House-Peters, Lily (Author)
Created2013-05-16
Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
While non-invasive breast cancer treatments may be considered less costly in the short-term, over the course of a lifetime, a more aggressive treatment can be overall less costly, especially with recurrence cases; however, these more aggressive treatments are not necessarily covered by insurance and are difficult to discuss in the short amount of time in physician consultations. This analysis studied data from 982 women diagnosed with breast cancer over a five-year period to evaluate monetary costs associated with treatment options and incorporated five in-depth interviews to understand experiences and non-monetary costs. Data showed the most expensive option was a unilateral mastectomy with radiation therapy and the least costly option was breast conserving surgery. Interviews determined each woman evaluated the monetary costs with each treatment but most heavily focused on personal values, biases and recommended opinions when deciding on a treatment. The use of prompt sheets before physician appointments and consultations, along with the addition of financial counselor meeting with each patient can improve patient satisfaction and alleviate stress by simplifying a woman's choice in deciding a treatment. In addition, increased insurance coverage to include every treatment chosen by women (rather than on a case-by-case basis), specifically contralateral prophylactic mastectomy and additional screening options, could decrease long term costs \u2014 both monetarily and in quality of life for patients.
ContributorsOsumi, Alana (Author) / LaRosa, Julia (Thesis director) / Sivanantham, Jai (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
In 2016, in the United States alone, the cosmetics industry made an estimated 62.46 billion dollars in revenue (Revenue of the Cosmetic Industry in the U.S. 2002-2016 | Forecast). With a consistent increase in sales in the last several years, the industry has reached continued success even during times of hardship, such as the Great Recession of 2008. The use of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), external campaigns, and thoughtful packaging and ingredients resonates with targeted consumers. This has served as an effective strategy to maintain growth in the industry. Cosmetic companies promote their brand image using these sustainability tactics, but there seems to be a lack of transparency in this unregulated industry. The purpose of this thesis is to determine if the cosmetics industry is a good steward of the sustainability movement. Important terms and concepts relating to the industry will be discussed, then an analysis of sustainability focused cosmetic brands will be provided, which highlights the extent to which these brands engage in activities that promote sustainability. This is followed by an application of findings to a company that could benefit from using such practices. Overall, the analysis of the different brands proved to be shocking and disappointing. This is due to the sheer amount that scored very poorly based on the sustainability criteria developed. The cosmetics industry is too inconsistent and too unregulated to truly act as a good steward for sustainability. Though some companies in the industry succeed, these accomplishments are not consistent across all cosmetic companies. Hence, the cosmetics industry as a good steward for sustainability can only be as strong as its weakest link.
ContributorsMamus, Sydney Wasescha (Author) / Ostrom, Amy (Thesis director) / Kristofferson, Kirk (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This report was commissioned to provide an analysis and evaluation of consumer perceptions and branding as it relates to the political and social climate in America. To be able to do this, the paper analyzes shifts in the external environment as well as researching case studies and online consumer perception surveys. Overall, this paper aims to examine the distributed survey and attempt to correlate and identify how branding, consumer perceptions, and social and political issues all can work and affect one another. Through the administration of this survey, we were able to formulate a conclusion that points towards the importance of brands actively adhering to changing consumer preferences, ideals, and expectations.
ContributorsClark, Sydney (Co-author) / Loera, Carolina (Co-author) / Montoya, Detra (Thesis director) / Samper, Adriana (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio family (ELRF)," as they are developed from the chain ladder algorithm used by actuaries to estimate unpaid claims. Although these models are intuitive and easy to implement, they are nevertheless flawed because many of the assumptions behind the models do not hold true when fitted with real-world data. Even more problematically, the ELRF cannot account for environmental changes like inflation which are often observed in the status quo. Barnett and Zehnwirth conclude that a new set of models that contain parameters for not only accident year and development period trends but also payment year trends would be a more accurate predictor of loss development. This research applies the paper's ideas to data gathered by Company XYZ. The data was fitted with an adapted version of Barnett and Zehnwirth's new model in R, and a trend selection algorithm was developed to accompany the regression code. The final forecasts were compared to Company XYZ's booked reserves to evaluate the predictive power of the model.
ContributorsZhang, Zhihan Jennifer (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Tomita, Melissa (Committee member) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05